IMPACT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF DIFFERENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH IN AN ECONOMY WITH HIGH INEQUALITY

The economic growth of South Africa has been disappointing over the last quarter century. This note addresses a conceptual problem that arises because of composition effects. Two important features of the South African economy are, first, its extreme inequality (primarily between the white population and the African population). Additionally, the African population has been growing rapidly, while the white population has experienced a declining share. This note derives an explicit equation for the impact of inequality and population-growth differences on the growth of per capita GDP. It shows that the combination of divergent population growth and high inequality can lead to an apparent drag on measured economic growth even though the components, and a more adequate measure of economic welfare, are growing at a healthy rate.     

THE PROMISE AND THE PERIL OF MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS IN INDONESIA

After the 1997 East Asian crisis, central banks throughout the region tried to reduce the risk of future bank failures by promulgating regulatory reforms. The results in Indonesia have been to concentrate rather than mitigate banking risks, and to decrease the access of low-income households and enterprises to formal financial services, especially in rural areas. The most severe casualties of the ‘reforms’ have been local government-owned micro finance institutions. In the provinces where these institutions have functioned best, they have addressed a market failure by extending coverage to areas not served by conventional financial institutions. Understanding the past performance and potential for replication of these success stories continues to be important because of the substantial gaps that remain in the access of rural Indonesian households and micro enterprises to fi nancial services.     

INCOME INEQUALITY IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1961–91

Household income inequality in the Philippines remains high and the trends for three decades have been fairly stable except for a sharp decline in the mid-1980s. Gini coefficient of income inequality has been consistently close to 0.50. Urbanization and education of household head are the most important factors determining the level of income inequality while the contribution of age of head is limited. The increase in the number of urban households results in an increase of overall inequality while the increase in the number of household heads with a college education tends to decrease the inequality. Among the household income sources, wage income is the largest contributor to total income inequality. Wage rate inequality appears to be a major source of wage income inequality.     

THE SHORT-TERM POVERTY IMPACT OF SMALL-SCALE,COLLATERAL-FREE MICROCREDIT IN INDONESIA: A MATCHING ESTIMATOR APPROACH

Indonesian microfinance is primarily operated by for-profit commercial banks, characterized by large-scale loans that require collateral. In 2003, the largest nongovernmental organization in the country introduced much smaller-scale loans without a collateral requirement. This scheme is commercialized but potentially more suited to the credit demands of the poor. Applying propensity score matching with the difference-in-difference method, this paper examines whether the emerging microcredit scheme has been successful in targeting and improving the welfare of the poor in the one year following loan disbursement. The results show that although collateral ownership is not an important determinant of participation, relatively wealthier families gain access to microcredit. The impact of microcredit on various household outcomes is generally statistically insignificant, except for sales of nonfarm enterprises for the nonpoor and schooling expenditures for the poor. This implies that the microcredit scheme under study might not have an immediate impact on poverty alleviation.