Do remittances and foreign aid augment the gross savings: Bangladesh,India and Philippines perspective?

Savings is considered to be a principal determinant to achieve long-run economic growth. Remittances and foreign aid are two important foreign capital inflows to meet the savings deficiency of developing nations. The objective of this study is to investigate the long-run impact of remittance to stimulate savings in remittance recipient countries. This paper contributes to the macroeconomic impact of remittance through a comparative study on Bangladesh, India and Philippines that positioned among the top ten largest remittance recipient countries from 2008 and onwards. The analysis makes use of an annual time series data over the period of 1980–2015. The Johansen cointegration test suggested long-run cointegrating relationship of remittance and foreign aid on gross savings. The test result suggests positive effect of remittances on gross savings for Bangladesh and Philippines although an insignificant negative effect for India. However, foreign aid has significant negative long-run impact in all the three cases. Government policy should focus on leveraging remittance flows to facilitate savings and investment for capital accumulation.     

Impact of R&D expenditures,rainfall and temperature variations in agricultural productivity: empirical evidence from Bangladesh

ABSTRACT

This study aims to investigate dynamic relationships between research and development (R&D) expenditure, climate change (measured by annual rainfall and temperature variations), human capital (proxied by literacy) and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Bangladesh agriculture. Pesaran’s Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator is used to a unique panel data of 17 regions of Bangladesh covering a 61-year period (1948–2008). In addition, the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model is also applied to trace the responsiveness of TFP from a shock to R&D, extension services, and literacy rate. Results reveal that R&D has an insignificant impact on TFP in the short-run, while it has a significant positive impact in the long-run. The contributions of climate variables (i.e., rainfall and temperature variations) are highly significant and negative in the long run. The literacy rate is found to have a significant positive impact on TFP as expected. These results suggest that agricultural R&D investment and human capital could play an important role to ameliorate the adverse effects of climate change in the agricultural sector of Bangladesh.     

Financial development and poverty reduction nexus: A cointegration and causality analysis in Bangladesh

This paper contributes to the literature by investigating the relationship between financial development, economic growth and poverty reduction in Bangladesh using quarter frequency data over the period of 1975–2011. This issue is of importance for developing economics given the role of financial sector in mobilizing and allocating savings into productive investments. We use an innovative empirical approach based on ARDL cointegration with structural breaks. Our findings show that a long-run relationship between financial development, economic growth and poverty reduction exists in Bangladesh. Financial development helps to reduce poverty, but its effect is not linear.     

Capital flight from sub‐Saharan Africa: linkages with external borrowing and policy options

Even as African countries became increasingly indebted, they experienced large‐scale capital flight. Some of this was legitimately acquired capital fleeing economic and political uncertainties; some was illegitimately acquired wealth spirited to safer havens abroad. This paper presents new estimates of the magnitude and timing of capital flight from 33 sub‐Saharan African countries from 1970 to 2004. We then analyze its determinants, including linkages to external borrowing. Our results confirm that sub‐Saharan Africa is a net creditor to the rest of the world, in that the subcontinent’s private external assets exceed its public external liabilities: total capital flight amounted to $443 billion (in 2004 dollars), compared to the external debt of $195 billion. Econometric analysis indicates that for every dollar in external loans to Africa in this period, roughly 60 cents flowed back out as capital flight in the same year, a finding that suggests the existence of widespread debt‐fueled capital flight. The results also show a debt‐overhang effect, as increases in the debt stock spur additional capital flight in later years. In addition to policies for recovery of looted wealth and repatriation of externally held assets, we discuss the need for policies to differentiate between legitimate and odious debts, both to ease current burdens on African countries and to improve international financial governance in the future.     

政府公共资本投资的长期经济增长效应

本文首先建立一个包含政府公共资本投资的两部门内生增长模型,并把公共资本投资分为政府物质资本投资和人力资本投资,从而对公共资本投资的长期经济增长效应进行理论分析。结论是,两种形式的公共资本投资对长期经济增长都可能具有正效应也可能具有负效应,取决于民间经济主体消费跨时替代弹性大小。其次,我们利用向量自回归分析框架,对我国1978—2004年间公共资本投资对长期经济增长的影响作实证分析。结论是,我国两种形式的公共资本投资与经济增长之间存在着长期均衡关系,其中政府公共物质资本投资对长期经济增长的正影响更为显著,而政府公共人力资本投资对长期经济增长的正影响较小,且在短期内不利于经济增长。这一结论对我国今后科学制定财政政策和选择公共投资领域都具有重要意义。     

R＆D、R＆D溢出、内生增长和内生收敛

根据强调知识与技术创新、知识与技术溢出重要性的当代内生增长理论，本文建立了一个将R＆D和R＆D溢出与资本积累之间、R＆D和R＆D溢出与总产出增长之间直接关联起来的动态模型。面板数据协整检验实证分析结果表明R＆D和R＆D溢出与资本积累之间、R＆D和R＆D溢出与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的正面长期协整关联。进一步的分析表明，R＆D与资本积累之间、R＆D与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的长期双向格兰杰因果关系。由此观知，R＆D乃长期经济增长源泉之所在。另一方面，尽管资本积累或总产出增长并不格兰杰导致R＆D溢出，证据表明R＆D溢出格兰杰导致资本积累和总产出增长。这种由R＆D溢出到资本积累和总产出增长的单向格兰杰因果关系意味着尽管知识与技术的跨国传播并非必然发生。其实为世界经济增长的重要动力。     

Public investment and private capital formation in a vector error-correction model of growth

Most of the literature dealing with the impact of public investment on private capital formation and economic growth focuses either on cross-section or static analysis. However, investigation of the long-run dynamic interactions between private and public investment and growth is much more insightful for public policy aiming at the determination of the appropriate size of its public sector. This paper extends the model of Barth and Cordes (1980) and uses multivariate cointegration techniques to develop a vector error-correction model useful for investigating the long-run effects of public investment on private capital formation and economic growth. We apply our methodology to a developing country implementing the IMF debt-stabilization programmes and show how, in this country, public investment is having a negative short-run impact on private investment and a negative long-run impact on both private investment and economic growth.     

Does remittance fuel labour productivity in Bangladesh? The application of an asymmetric non-linear ARDL approach

Bangladesh, a labour-abundant country, is finally learning to reap gains from her labour abundance. The historical under-optimized capital–labour ratio of Bangladesh is slowly moving towards its optimum as the migration of its labour force and consequent inflow of remittance strategically converts its abundant labour into capital. Though the fear that remittance as an alternative source of earning may result in Dutch disease for existing family members; annual data for 1982–2013 and through applying standard testing methodologies, our empirical findings suggest that such a fear is not valid since remittance flow significantly improves domestic labour productivity in Bangladesh in the long run.     

Remittances and investment nexus in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach

Bangladesh is the 8th largest remittance recipient country in the world and one of the heavily dependent (11 % of GDP) countries of remittances. Despite its importance in policy making in developing countries like Bangladesh, there is absence of any study regarding the effect of remittances on the level of investment. In an attempt to fill the gap, we examine the cointegrating property and stability of the relationship among these variables using the ARDL bounds testing approach combined with CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests. Our findings show that both remittances and trade openness positively and significantly influence the level of investment in Bangladesh, meaning that contrary to most conclusions found in the literature, migrant remittances in developing countries are not entirely spent in basic consumption needs. We also find that foreign aid has very little and insignificant impact on investment. Finally, we find long-run unidirectional causal relationship running from remittances to investment indicating that favorable policies to increase the flow of remittance will promote investment in Bangladesh.     

Fiscal Policy, Congestion, and Endogenous Growth

We devise an endogenous growth model with private and public physical capital, and human capital, which allows for relative and absolute congestion. According to empirical evidence, long-run growth is invariant to fiscal policy. Despite its complexity, the dynamics of the market economy and the centralized economy are analyzed in detail. We show that an increase in absolute congestion reduces the long-run growth rate of output. In contrast, relative congestion does not affect long-run growth. In the absence of congestion, it is optimal to use lump-sum taxation, and with congestion it is optimal to also tax income.     

The Determinants of Capital Flight： Empirical Evidence from 1982 to 2004 in China

This study presents the possible determinants of capital flight in China. We present a Johansen cointegration model based on the dynamic econometric theory. By the co-integration model, we get appropriate long-term relationship between capital and its determinants. The empirical results imply that the difference between domestic and foreign interest rate, the foreign debt as a percentage of GDP, the overvaluation of the exchange rate, the discrimination between native and foreign capital, financial control is the main economic forcing factors of capital flight.     

The long-run effect of foreign direct investment on total factor productivity in developing countries: a panel cointegration analysis

This paper examines the long-run effect of the level of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the level of total factor productivity (TFP) for 49 developing countries for the period 1981–2011 using panel cointegration and causality techniques. It is found that (i) FDI has, on average, a negative long-run effect on TFP in developing countries, (ii) long-run causality runs in only one direction, from FDI to TFP, (iii) in the short run, TFP has a negative effect on FDI, and (iv) the long-run effect of FDI of TFP differs between selected groups of countries: While the estimated long-run FDI–TFP coefficients are always relatively large, negative, and significant for countries with lower levels of human capital, financial development, and trade openness, the estimated effects are relatively small, insignificant, or even significantly positive for subgroups of countries with higher levels of human capital, financial development, and trade openness.     

Environmental Quality,Public Debt and Economic Development

This article analyzes the consequences on capital accumulation and environmental quality of environmental policies financed by public debt. A public sector of pollution abatement is financed by a tax or by public debt. We show that if the initial capital stock is high enough, the economy monotonically converges to a long-run steady state. On the contrary, when the initial capital stock is low, the economy is relegated to an environmental poverty trap. We also explore the implications of public policies on the trap and on the long-run stable steady state. In particular, we find that government should decrease debt and increase pollution abatement to promote capital accumulation and environmental quality at the stable long-run steady state. Finally, a welfare analysis shows that there exists a level of public debt that allows a long run steady state to be optimal.     

Trade Policy Transparency and Investor Confidence: Some Implications for an Effective Trade Policy Review Mechanism

This paper is concerned with the value of the WTO's Trade Policy Review Mechanism, particularly its transparency role and its potential role in policy stability, for investor confidence in developing countries. The implications of reduced risk and uncertainty regarding trade policy for investor confidence, and ultimately for the capital stock and the long-run structure of production, are examined in an analytical model. Certainty equivalence is employed to assess the general equilibrium effects of risk and uncertainty. Their reduction can boost risk-adjusted returns, leading to an increase in long-run levels of capital.     

Does financial liberalization decrease capital flight? A panel causality analysis

We employ a panel causality approach in order to examine whether financial liberalization affects the magnitude of capital flight, which measures unrecorded accumulation of foreign assets by the private sector. Our data from 21 emerging market economies for the period between 1980 and 2004 show no significant evidence of a causal relationship. Lagged values of capital flight, however, seem to increase its current level, indicating its self-reinforcing characteristic. Our results suggest that financial liberalization policies per se may not be helpful in reducing capital flight.     

Remittances and output in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration

Although the relationship between remittances and output is still inconclusive in literature, most studies find that remittances have a positive effect on output in the long run. Contrary to this conventional direction of causality from remittances to output, our study finds that output alone determined long-run movements in remittances in a positive direction in the Bangladesh economy over the last 35 years from 1976 to 2010. We use the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration to explore this long-run relationship. Surprisingly, remittances do not appear to be a long-run forcing variable to the explanation of Bangladesh’s output over the same period. While examining the channels of this output–remittance mechanism remains an area of research for the future, we hypothesize that the rise in remittances in response to increased income occurs through higher import demand and greater investment opportunities. This finding implies that Bangladeshi policymakers can influence remittances through national output in the long run.     

Has the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle waned? Evidence from time series and dynamic panel data analysis

This objective of this paper is to examine the Feldstein-Harioka puzzle by using both time series analysis that accommodates structural breaks, and dynamic panel error-correction method. Our sample consists of 118 countries over the period 1981–2013. Results from ARDL model suggest that long-run capital is highly mobile in high-income countries (HIC), moderately mobile for both middle- and low-income countries. Our finding of the low long-run saving coefficient for HICs shows that failure to account for a structural break may overstate the long-run saving coefficient. Findings from the pooled mean group estimators suggest that capital is moderately mobile in the middle-income countries, and highly immobile in the high- and low-income countries in the long run. Our findings highlight that ignoring structural break, the type of data (time series/panel), and econometric method used can affect the conclusion about capital mobility. The adjustment coefficient in the time series analysis is comparatively higher than the panel data analysis. We also test whether country size and openness affect the saving–investment correlation. While the effect of country size on the saving coefficient is mixed, the saving estimate is found to be a function of the degree of openness. We also discuss policy implications of our findings on the current account sustainability.     

Is energy consumption sensitive to foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation in Pakistan?

This study investigates the relationship between foreign capital inflows and energy consumption by incorporating economic growth, exports and currency devaluation in energy demand function for the case of Pakistan. The long-run and short-run effects are examined via ARDL bounds testing procedure. Foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation (economic growth and exports) decrease (increase) energy consumption in long-run. The results confirm a feedback effect between foreign capital inflows and energy consumption. These findings would be helpful to policy makers in designing comprehensive economic and energy policies for utilizing foreign capital inflows as a tool for optimal use of energy sources to enhance economic development in long run.     

Capacity Utilization,Foreign Portfolio Investment and International Debts and Deficits

This paper develops a long-run equilibrium growth model, in the tradition of Keynes, Kalecki and Steindl, involving international capital flows between a debtor and a creditor country, and in which capacity utilization is variable. This latter assumption implies that the shares of savings by capitalists and workers will vary with capacity utilization. Profit rates will also vary with capacity utilization rates, so that the establishment of a common warranted rate of growth requires that the rates of profit in the creditor and the debtor countries must vary inversely. The long-run equilibrium shares of ownership of the two stocks of capital must therefore vary as the utilization rates vary. Taking the international interest rate as given, steady growth in each country at near full employment is shown to be accommodated, to some extent, through variations in the degree of capacity utilization. Even if income distribution remains unchanged, the variability of capacity utilization allows the existence of a range of growth rates consistent with the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model.     

Export-led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration Analysis

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to examine the export-led and manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis for four South Asian Countries; namely, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, using Pedroni’s panel cointegration technique for the period 1980–2002. In this context we estimate growth accounting equations to investigate the impact of exports, manufacturing exports and other important physical and human capital variables on both total GDP and non-export GDP. The study finds long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP (and non-export GDP) and exports along with other variables supporting export-led growth hypothesis. The results also substantiate the existence of manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis. Further, we find that export, fixed capital formation, public expenditure on health and education have statistically significant coefficients re-emphasizing the importance of these variables for higher economic growth.