Australia, Canada, and the International Economy in the Era of Postwar Reconstruction, 1945–50

Early hopes that a multilateral economy could be speedily restored after World War II were shattered by the sterling crisis of 1947. In the ensuing retreat to bilateralism, Canada acted vigorously to strengthen economic links with the Americans, and in the late 1940s its export dependence on the United States increased dramatically. The Australian response to the crisis was to tighten trading and financial connections with Britain and the rest of the sterling area. The limitations of UK supply capacity, however, eventually encouraged a reversal of policy after the fall of the Labor government, and Australia turned to the dollar area to tap additional resources for accelerated economic development.     

The shift from sterling to the dollar, 1965–76: evidence from Australia and New Zealand

The management of foreign exchange reserves has recently attracted attention from both policy‐makers and historians. Historical research has focussed on the nineteenth century and the interwar period, with less attention to the strategies of smaller countries in the final transition from sterling to the dollar in the post‐1945 period. This article examines the evolution of reserve currency policy from the perspective of Australia and New Zealand in the 1960s and early 1970s. As in the 1930s, economic uncertainty and a shift in global economic power prompted changes in reserves strategy. Patterns of trade and debt and falling confidence in British economic policy prompted a move away from sterling, but the timing and extent of this transition were affected by the fragility of the sterling exchange rate, lack of alternative assets, and continued dependence on the London capital market. The choices for Australia and New Zealand were thus constrained, but they were able to leverage their position as holders of sterling to engage in agreements that provided an exchange rate guarantee for their sterling holdings and continued access to the London capital market. This mitigated the effect of the final global transition from sterling to the dollar while protecting their interests.     

Sterling's Persistence as a Reserve Currency: Australia and Reserves Pooling, 1950–68

Financial historians have noted sterling's persistence as a reserve currency after the Second World War. Yet they regard Australia, the leading ‘sterling area’ country, as an early diversifier, substituting other assets for sterling, and the sterling area as an irrelevance by the 1960s. This is an archive-based account of Australia's reserve management in 1950–68, emphasising the persistence of reserves pooling. Acquisition of non-sterling assets in 1951–61 was limited to gold production and undermined by Australia's balance-of-payments volatility. Diversification only began in 1962, largely through the International Monetary Fund ‘gold tranche’. Diversification was gradual, hidden, and constrained by sterling area membership.     

The empire strikes back: Hong Kong and the decline of sterling in the 1960s1

The aftermath of the sterling devaluation of 1967 is usually portrayed only in terms of the performance of the British economy, but it had more far‐reaching implications, exposing the changed financial relationship between Britain and its overseas dependencies and prompting the end of the sterling reserve system. This article explores the reasons why Britain was forced to offer its first exchange guarantee to Hong Kong in May 1968. Prolonging the colonial monetary system devised in the period from the 1930s to the late 1960s created problems for Britain that shifted the balance of power to the point where Hong Kong and other colonies were able to force a re‐negotiation of their link to sterling.     

The Old Commonwealth and Britain's First Application to Join the EEC, 1961–3

New Zealand, Canada, and Australia reacted in different ways to Britain's decision in 1961 to seek membership of the EEC. We show that the umbrage taken by the members of the old Commonwealth was in inverse proportion to the economic interests at stake. Canada, whose trade with Britain was relatively small, adopted a position of violent opposition to British policy. New Zealand, which was still heavily dependent on the UK as a market for staple commodities, was careful to avoid acting in a manner likely to alienate the British government. Australia, which was in an intermediate position as regards the importance of its trade with Britain, mounted a sturdy defence of its commercial interests, but did not indulge in the histrionics of the Canadians. All three of the old dominions were disappointed with the arrangements for Commonwealth trade towards which the UK and the Six were moving when de Gaulle vetoed British membership in January 1963, but at least New Zealand had obtained some special concessions. Whilst it is unlikely that a less combative attitude by Canada and Australia would have resulted in a better outcome for these countries, a more belligerent approach on the part of New Zealand would have put its economic future in even greater jeopardy.     

澳大利亚反倾销政策及其特点探析

澳大利亚是世界上第二个制定反倾销政策的国家,其反倾销政策具有自身的特点。同时,在反倾销实践中,澳大利亚被称为全球四大传统反倾销用户之一,而中国则成为澳大利亚实施反倾销政策的首要目标国。本文从澳大利亚的反倾销管理体制出发,分析了澳大利亚反倾销政策的主要内容,进而考察了澳大利亚反倾销政策及其实践的特点。     

The 'Enfant Terrible': Australia and the Reconstruction of the Multilateral Trade system, 1946–8

In recent years Australia has been recognized as a prominent player in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor, the World Trade Organization (WTO). Less well known is Australia's activism during the establishment of the GATT. This article, based on archival sources and contemporary accounts, examines Australia's role in the birth of the multilateral trade system. It seeks to nuance the two conventional interpretations of this period, the first which argues that countries joined the GATT because it was in their economic interests to do so, and the second which suggests that the United States hegemony imposed its trade liberalization objectives on less powerful allies and trade partners.     

How the German crisis of 1931 swept across Europe: a comparative view from Stockholm†

According to conventional wisdom, the fall of the Swedish currency in September 1931 was caused by the sterling crisis. This article shows that the road towards devaluation began earlier and that financial linkages with Germany proved to be more important than Sweden's economic and monetary relations with Great Britain. It all started in late 1929 when the Swedish financier Ivar Kreuger gave a loan to the German government in exchange for the match monopoly, thus tying his business ventures to Germany's solvency. In addition, a part of this loan was financed by large US dollar credits from the two largest Swedish banks that, in turn, accumulated a sizeable foreign short‐term deficit. When in June 1931 the German fiscal crisis began to escalate, international investors ceased to consider Sweden a safe haven because they knew about the linkages between the German government, Kreuger, and the Swedish banking system. This downgrading, in combination with the foreign short‐term deficit of the banking sector, proved lethal for the reserve position of the Swedish central bank, once the international liquidity crisis in mid‐July 1931 erupted. The sterling crisis only put the final nail in the coffin.     

New Zealand's economic relations with Japan in the 1950s

New Zealand's special economic relationship with Britain was brought into question during the 1950s. The subsidization of British farmers, and the dumping of foreign food surpluses in the UK, made New Zealand's traditional market seem increasingly insecure. Wellington responded by seeking supplementary outlets, and in 1958 a commercial treaty was signed between New Zealand and Japan, despite the alarm of British manufacturers. New Zealand's trade with Japan grew after 1958, although it failed to grow as quickly as trade between Australia and Japan. The Japanese were reluctant to import many animal products. This article explains the process by which Japan and New Zealand arrived at a compromise, which enabled trade to develop without seriously damaging the interests of protected groups in either country.     

THE THIRD NOEL BUTLIN LECTURE: AUSTRALIAN EXCEPTIONALISM REVISITED

In the late-nineteenth century, Australia had one of the highest levels of income per capita in the world. Over the twentieth century, Australia's exceptional position declined as its high labour force participation rate and male-skewed gender ratio gradually aligned with other countries. A similar reversion occurred in the other important components underlying Australia's high productivity, such as work hours. As the structure of the economy shifted away from a reliance on agricultural and towards manufacturing, Australia's protective attitude and restrictive business practices may have exacerbated its loss in productivity. Considerable research remains to be carried out to confirm these views.     

A ‘blank cheque'? Portuguese Second World War sterling balances, 1940–73

The British effort in the Second World War required massive external financing which depended on Lend‐Lease and the accumulation of sterling balances. Indebtedness in sterling balances corresponded to almost 38 per cent of this total at the end of the war. Portuguese sterling balances, although a small share of the total, were important because of pre‐emptive purchases, especially of wolfram, and because of the ‘gold clause’ which was to be applied to outstanding balances. Portugal's willingness to finance British purchases contrasts with the requirement of German payments in goods or cash for their purchases in Portugal. The settlement of Portuguese sterling balances in August 1945 was singular as it preceded the Anglo‐American settlement of December 1945 which had important consequences for sterling balance holders, as the US insisted that the US$3.75 billion loan should not be used to settle British war debts. Postwar settlement of British debt through a long‐term loan from Portugal to Britain contrasts with settlements that involved the sale of British assets. Salazar's concerns about the postwar international position of Portugal, the Portuguese Empire, and the survival of the Portuguese regime are relevant in explaining his pro‐British stance during and after the war.     

上海市出口与经济增长的实证研究——基于上海市1978～2009年的数据

本文以上海市1978～2009年的时间序列数据为基础利用附加出口的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数模型研究出口对经济增长的贡献。研究结果表明,上海市国内生产总值、劳动投入、资本存量与出口序列之间存在唯一的协整关系;出口每增长10%,将拉动经济增长3.29%;根据估算,1978～2009年出口对经济增长的贡献份额为69.9%。     

How Japan remained on the Gold Standard despite unsustainable external debt

In the period of the classic gold standard, most peripheral countries were frequently affected by so-called sudden stops as well as by financial and currency crises. Yet pre-War Japan was an outlier. Though its level of external debt was not sustainable, Japan issued many government foreign loans to cover its current account deficits, was never affected by currency crises, and was never forced to suspend convertibility. We argue that, from the late nineteenth century until just before World War I, Japan and Britain engaged in a politico-economic exchange: Japan offered to protect Britain's economic and political interests in the Far East provided that Britain gave the rising Asian power access to financial markets—namely, in the City of London.     

The European Periphery in the Era of the Gold Standard: The Case of the Spanish Peseta and the Pound Sterling from 1883 to 1931

This paper analyses the relationship between the Spanish peseta, the currency of a peripheral country, and the pound sterling, the central currency of the gold standard. From 1883, when Spain suspended metallic convertibility, until 1931, when Great Britain definitively abandoned gold, the peseta was a fiat currency with a flexible exchange rate regime. Our results confirm, first, long-run PPP hypothesis compliance for the peseta/pound sterling rate during the period. Secondly, we illustrate how the inclusion of peripheral variables (erratic trade and financial risk), significantly improves the short-run adjustment to the PPP hypothesis. It appears that the floating regime thus helped Spain to smooth out the required external adjustment process resulting from balance of payments shocks.     

技术异质下专业化分工模式与国家出口生产效率研究——基于44个国家1999～2010年面板数据分析

一国的专业化分工模式对于一国整体出口生产效率的影响是深远的。而专业化分工模式取决于该国的要素禀赋以及异质性要素,包括技术要素、经济政策以及制度等,而技术异质性的重要性尤为突出。本文通过对世界101个国家2006年的进出口数据计算了99个部门的PRODY值,也由此计算出了44个国家1999～2010年的出口生产效率EXPY值,对EXPY值的相关影响因子进行了实证分析,并分析了发达国家与发展中国家专业化分工模式的异同与原因。     

The rise of the professional accountant in British management

This article quantifies the growth in the number of professional accountants in British management, charts their influence over the past century, and analyses the causes. It is most likely that Britain initially spawned large numbers of accountants because of the particular nature of its capital market which led to demands for the independent auditing of company accounts. British companies then recruited their accountants from this ever growing pool of professionally qualified auditors and the reason why these accountants rose to the top in British management was probably that the profession provided virtually the only formal management training available in Britain.     

Capital Markets and Capital Formation in Australia 1890–1945

This survey article examines the interaction between the domestic capital markets and capital formation in Australia from the 1890s up to the end of World War II. The disenchantment of the City of London with Australian securities in the 1890s opened a window for the development of domestic capital markets. It was the demands of the government for funds, especially during both wars, that transformed the scale and character of local markets. Local deposit taking institutions and stock exchanges handled a sufficient volume of domestic savings to fund the lion's share of both public and private sector capital formation.     

F. L. McDougall: Éminence grise of Australian Economic Diplomacy

This paper examines the principal economic ideas of F. L. McDougall, a largely forgotten, sometime government official and 'amateur' economist who exercised an enigmatic influence upon Australia's economic diplomacy in the interwar years. Beginning with his conception of 'sheltered markets', the international manifestation of the Bruce Government's vision for Australia of 'men, money, and markets', the paper explores McDougall's later advocacy of a 'nutrition approach' to world agriculture and its extension into 'economic appeasement'. McDougall's ideas were theoretically unsophisticated, and realized little in the way of immediate achievements. In the longer run they could be viewed more favourably. Naive perhaps and idealistic certainly, McDougall's ideas were part of a broader movement that, after the Second World War, redefined the role of international economic institutions. If nothing else, McDougall's active proselytizing of his ideas lent Australia an unusual 'voice' in international forums at a time when it was scarcely heard.     

The Western Australian Convicts

British convicts transported to Western Australia between 1850 and 1868 were not as positively selected regarding their human capital as early historical accounts suggest. The heights of the convicts were not statistically different from those of British prisoners who were not transported. While few were skilled, the proportion of construction workers was higher than expected, consistent with selection for the needs of the colonial government's works on infrastructure. Data on inmates of Fremantle Prison allow validation of height measurements and occupational statements in the convict list. Australian-born prisoners were taller than those who came from Britain as free immigrants.     

对外直接投资对出口技术水平的提升研究——理论与基于中国省际面板数据的实证

通过对Hausmann等(2007)理论模型的简单拓展,加入对外直接投资变量后,发现基于比较优势的对外直接投资对出口技术水平具有直接的促进作用,对外直接投资企业数量和对外直接投资规模与出口技术水平均呈正相关关系。基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验也支持这一结论,同时对中国省际面板数据进一步实证研究发现,中国省级对外直接投资对出口技术水平有直接促进作用的同时,这种促进作用还受到以人力资本和研发投入衡量的"吸收能力"的正向促进,受到以资本劳动比、制度因素、地区经济规模、进口技术水平和现有技术水平衡量的地区禀赋状况的制约。要实现"走出去"战略与"贸易强国"战略的协同发展,必须加强人力资本积累和研发资本投入,同时注意地区在要素禀赋、制度建设、经济发展、技术积累方面的整体协调。