Eastern European Economic Integration and Foreign Direct Investment

Economic transition in Eastern Europe should generate market growth. In addition, current discussions on economic integration and the development of a free-trade area in Eastern Europe will improve market accessibility. These two forces will significantly affect the strategies by which external firms will choose to supply markets in Eastern Europe. This paper examines the ways in which supply strategy is likely to change. We show that both market growth and improved market accessibility will lead the external firms to switch from exporting to foreign direct investment. However, market growth is likely to lead to dispersed investment in the growing economies, whereas increased market accessibility, by establishing an integrated regional bloc in Eastern Europe, is more likely to lead to concentrated investment plus infra-regional exports to the remainder of the regional bloc. The switch from exporting to local production through foreign direct investment will favor consumers through lowered prices but will harm national producers by depressing profit margins.     

On the optimal design of disaster insurance in a federation

Recent experience with disasters and terrorist attacks in the US indicates that state and local governments rely on the federal sector for support after disasters occur. But these same governments invest in infrastructure designed to reduce vulnerability to natural and man-made hazards. We show that when the federal government is committed to full insurance against disasters, regions will have incentives to under-invest in ex-ante protective measures. We derive the structure of the optimal second-best insurance system when regional governments choose investment levels non-cooperatively and the central government cannot verify regional investment choices. For low probability disasters this will result in lower ex-post intergovernmental transfers (and hence less ex-post redistribution) and greater ex-ante investment. However, the second-best transfer scheme suffers from a time-inconsistency problem. Ex-post, the central government will be driven towards full insurance rather than the second-best grants, which results in a type of soft budget constraint problem. Sub-national governments will anticipate this and reduce their investment in protective infrastructure even further. The result is that the central government may be better off suffering the underinvestment that results with first-best transfers because investment is even lower under second-best transfers when the central government is unable to commit.     

基础设施投资的空间溢出效应分析——以沪昆线沿线城市为例

以沪昆铁路沿线区域及城市经济发展为分析对象,实证分析了我国基础设施投资的空间溢出效应。认为沪昆线的基础设施投资既产生了提高沿线区域及城市的运输能力、扩大沿线贸易量、调整沿线产业结构、促进沿线经济增长的空间正溢出效应,也产生了加剧沿线地区及城市要素的非均衡流动、非均衡经济增长的空间负溢出效应。     

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF EXPORTS IN DETERMINING LEVELS OF REGIONAL OUTPUT AND INCOME: A Model and Empirical Evidence from Kenya

Exports have long been assumed by many to be the most important variable in driving regional growth, although factors such as government expenditure, investment demand, and remittances, among others, have also been recognized as significant. In addition, supply-side constraints to the promotion of regional growth and development have recently received increased attention in the literature. This paper evaluates the relative importance of exports, investment demand, and remittances, as well as supply-constrained agricultural production, in determining levels of regional output, value added, and household income in a single region in Kenya. The analysis is based on a mixed endogenous/ exogenous model derived from a social accounting matrix (SAM) which allows for incorporation of both demand and supply-side considerations. The paper finds that exports are, in fact, the most important factor in explaining regional output and wage income in the region studied, although not overwhelmingly so. In addition, the analysis demonstrates the importance of supply-constrained agricultural production as a determinant of income at the household level.     

Spatially Optimal Allocation of Investments: An Application of the Dynamic Multiregional Social Accounting Matrix

This paper analyzes the effect of regional income disparity on the allocation of investments using a dynamic multiregional Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) model. The optimal shares of total investments required to achieve the most balanced regional growth under the constraint of a 5% fixed annual economic growth rate were 37.74% for the Capital region, 18.83% for the Southeast region, 15.92% for the Central region, 13.90% for the East region and 13.61% for the West region. This policy requires an additional investment of 1.37% of the GDP, bringing about a 52.2% reduction in regional income disparity in terms of the Atkinson index. This implies that the decentralization of investment expenditures to less developed regions would lead to a substantial gain in regional income equity, on the one hand, and to the loss of cost effectiveness in investments, on the other.     

经济结构失衡背景下的中国经济增长质量

利用客观因子分析法与主观打分法相结合,测度了1978-2010年中国经济结构和各要素之间的失衡程度,利用结构方程模型分析了产业结构、投资消费结构、金融结构、区域经济结构与国际收支结构的失衡对于经济增长质量的影响。结果表明：中国经济结构整体失衡水平呈U型变化趋势,五大结构的失衡水平不断恶化。产业结构、投资消费结构、金融结构的失衡程度对经济增长质量产生了负效应,区域经济结构与国际收支结构对于经济增长质量产生正效应。在未来发展中,通过产业结构与投资消费结构、金融结构、区域经济结构、国际收支结构的协调、有序、均衡的调整,实现经济增长质量的稳定、可持续发展。     

重庆市区域物流与区域经济互动机理研究

中央直辖市的设立,开辟了重庆发展的新天地。区域物流在促进地区经济发展的过程中起着举足轻重的作用。为了验证重庆区域物流与区域经济增长的互动关系,作者以统计分析为基础,建立数量模型来分析重庆区域物流与区域经济的内在联系,最后证实重庆区域物流可以促进该区域经济的发展;另一方面随着经济不断增长和对物流固定资产投资的不断增加,也可以加快区域物流产值的迅速提升。     

Rethinking Regional Disparity in China

Income disparities in China decreased both across provinces and across three transprovincial areas from 1978 through 1984. After 1984 there was an increase in disparity across the three areas, but there was no change across provinces. The faster growth of the coastal area can be attributed to the growth of the previously relatively poorer areas of the eastern seaboard. But this was not realised at the cost of growth in other areas; instead it contributed to overall national economic growth. International trade and foreign direct investment are the main driving forces behind the changes in regional disparity. The reasons for the concentration of trade and foreign investment in the coastal area are its inherent comparative advantage in terms of lower labour costs, better infrastructure facilities, close relations with overseas Chinese, favourable geographic location, as well as national industrial policies that protect the domestic market from foreign investment. The central government's preferential policies towards the coastal area were a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for such a concentration of foreign trade and investment.     

Public and Private Investment and The Growth Process in Developing Countries

This paper examines the relative contribution of public and private investment to per capita GDP growth in developing countries. It extends the basic neoclassical model of growth by separating investment into its public and private components, and estimates this model for a sample of 95 developing countries over the period 1970–90 using both cross-sectional and panel data. Using data on relative supplies of public and private capital stock, rates of return to public and private investment are also computed. The results suggest that once other determinants of growth, such as human capital formation, population growth, and technical progress, are taken into account, public and private investment have different effects on growth, and that these effects are characterized by marked regional and inter-temporal variations.     

EFFECT OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT ON THE REGIONAL ECONOMIES IN POSTWAR JAPAN

This paper examines the effect of public investment on the regional economies of postwar Japan. It evaluates the effects of efficiency-verses-equity-oriented allocation policies by estimating the aggregate regional production function and calculating the marginal productivity of public capital for each region, using panel data covering the 47 prefectures over the period from 1955 to 2000. The empirical results show that public capital investment has alternated between an allocation policy based on efficiency and one that is based on equity, and, in fact, such investment was used as a policy tool for adjusting income distribution and accelerating economic growth. Numerical simulations are used to analyze the trade-offs between economic efficiency and inter-prefectural equity. The results indicate that in the case of income-elastic labor mobility, an efficiency-oriented allocation policy leads to larger aggregate gross domestic product by promoting both growth and equity simultaneously.     

CHINA'S REGIONAL INEQUALITY AND RELATED LONG-TERM POLICIES

This paper presents a simple model to study the reasons for China's regional inequality and proposes a few long-term policies for solving the problem. Based on an empirical estimation, it is shown that the great regional inequality of the recent years is caused by high disparities m investment between the provincial capital, in population growth and in regional relative price indices. It is argued that such regional inequality could be reduced in the long term by adjusting China's coastal-favorite regional development strategy, by partially relaxing strict regulations on inter-regional migration, and by driving further forward the transformation towards a mature market economy.     

股权激励与投资行为:以光明乳业为例

投资决策是决定公司价值创造的重要因素之一,作为公司价值和经济增长的源泉,必然也受到管理层动机的影响。由所有权和经营权分离所导致的代理问题会影响高管人员的投资决策,导致公司过度投资或投资不足。由于投资对经理人兼具私人收益与私人成本,股权激励作为解决代理问题的一种长期激励方式,可能改变上述成本与收益的对比,其设计、实施是否合理会直接影响高管人员的行为,进而影响公司的投资行为。本文以光明乳业为例,分析股权激励如何影响国有上市公司的投资行为,并给出对策性建议。     

职业经理人引入对公司非效率投资的影响——基于上市家族企业的数据

以沪深两市2010—2015年上市家族企业作为研究对象,实证检验我国上市家族企业引入职业经理人对公司非效率投资的影响,并进一步研究在成长性水平不同的企业中职业经理人引入对企业投资效率影响的差异。实证研究结果表明：非效率投资普遍存在于我国上市家族企业中;上市家族企业引入职业经理人对公司非效率投资具有抑制作用;与低成长性企业相比,高成长性企业引入职业经理人对公司非效率投资的抑制作用较弱,即企业成长性水平的逐步提高会削弱职业经理人引入对企业非效率投资的影响。     

Transfer Payments without Growth: Evidence for German Regions, 1992–2005

After German reunification, interregional subsidies accounted for approximately 4% of gross fixed capital investment in the new federal states (i.e. those which were formerly part of the German Democratic Republic). We show that, between 1992 and 2005, infrastructure and corporate investment subsidies had a negative net impact on regional economic growth and convergence. This result is robust to both the specification of spatially weighted control variables and the use of instrumental variable techniques to control for the endogeneity of subsidies. Our results suggest that regional redistribution was ineffective, potentially due to a lack of spatial concentration to create growth poles.     

我国A股上市公司环境投资现状研究——基于2009—2015年社会责任报告和财务报告的数据

基于我国A股上市公司2009年至2015年发布的社会责任报告和财务报告数据，对上市公司环境投资现状进行研究，结果表明：上市公司环境投资的行业差异体现在重污染行业与非重污染行业之间，地区差异体现在东部地区与非东部地区之间；当前我国环境投资领域仍以政府财政投入为主，上市公司在环境投资方面缺乏科学统一的引导，投资金额存在随意性与盲目性；上市公司的环境投资额在省份之间、行业之间存在较大差异，仅有11个省份、12个行业的上市公司环境投资的平均增幅高于政府投资平均增幅。     

Japan

An acceleration in global trade helped to boost Japanese GDP growth to 1.7% in 2017. But an expected slowdown in demand from China in 2018 means that the contribution from external trade will be lower this year. And while we expect growth to continue to become more broad‐based, with investment playing a prominent role, given the recent increase in protectionist tensions, we have revised down our forecast for GDP growth in 2018 to 1.5% (from 1.7% three months ago). With an expected slowdown in construction and a planned consumption tax hike in 2019, we forecast that GDP growth will ease further to 0.9% next year. The short‐term outlook is influenced by the following factors:

• Export growth easing over 2018 : exports grew by 6.6% y/y in yen terms in January–February 2018 combined, down from 13% growth in Q4 2017. While the slowdown was less marked in volume terms, with real exports up 5.2% y/y and imports 7.8% higher (in January–February), we see a smaller contribution to growth from net trade in 2018 than in 2017, as external demand cools. The recent easing in export growth is in line with our expectations following last year's acceleration. Our baseline is for trade momentum to ease through 2018 as Chinese import demand moderates. While US protectionist measures threaten the outlook, we believe that the overall impact of the likely US tariffs will be limited, as Japanese trade continues to shift towards Asia.
• Solid investment growth to continue : we expect the momentum behind business investment to remain solid in 2018, with growth of 2.9% little changed from the 3% recorded in 2017. Overall investment will be supported by strong corporate profits, construction for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and high levels of confidence. Although dropping among large enterprises recently, overall business sentiment (and among SMEs) remains healthy and planned capex for fiscal year 2018 got off to a good start. Protectionism is also a downside risk to the investment outlook, but we believe that the actual impact on Japan will be limited.
• Weak wage growth to weigh on consumer demand : monthly data suggest that consumption has continued to edge higher this year. Moreover, rising employment in Q1 may provide additional upside momentum. However, despite a tight labour market, wage growth has been disappointing and we expect sluggish wage growth to constrain household demand and inflation going forward.

     

An Empirical Model of Land Use Change in China

The aim of this paper is to develop an empirical model of land use change that integrates the growth of regional economy and land use change in a developing country such as China. The concept of ecological growth in terms of regional resources and population is introduced to make an empirical model of land use changes. It is shown that the model might be an efficient tool to analyze and predict regional land use change, and that the policies based on it can play an important role in land use change in China.     

Company sector

Recent national accounts data suggest that the corporate sector has been playing a bigger role in the economic recovery than previously thought. Business investment rose by 8.7% over the year to Q4 2013 and surveys of investment intentions point to strong growth ahead. But what will hopefully be a sustained rise in investment is starting for a very low base…     

WORKERS' COMPENSATION COSTS AND REGIONAL GROWTH DYNAMICS*

This paper attempts to gauge the effect of workplace regulation, against the background of other influences, on the increasing or decreasing competitive advantage of particular regions relative to the nation. We employ two measures of regional growth. The first is the differential rate of investment growth across states between 1978 and 1984. The results for output growth show that states both in the South and outside the South stand to lose their competitive edge in manufacturing activity from rising unit labor cost and energy cost. Rising taxes hurt industrial activity in the North but are not critical in the South. Agglomeration economies that benefit the North, apparently have no detrimental effect in the South. Rising workers' compensation cost is significant in the decline in southern competitiveness; it is not in the North. Both regions enhance their competitive position when local markets grow. For regional manufacturing investment, we find that unit labor cost and energy cost have no significant effect on the competitive position of states in the South. However, taxes and workers' compensation costs hurt investment opportunities in South.     

北京R&D投入与经济增长的灰色关联分析

随着科技投入的加大,R&D投入也越来越被人们所重视。R&D投入不仅对所在区域科技与经济发展具有重要作用,而且对整个国家的科技与经济发展都具有推动作用。本文运用北京2001~2011年R&D经费投入与经济增长的有关数据变量进行灰色关联分析,并根据不同结构建立了相应模型,揭示了北京R&D经费投入与经济增长的关系。