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1.
We consider a general equilibrium model with frictions in credit markets used by households. In our economy, houses provide housing services to consumers and serve as collateral to lower borrowing cost. We show that this amplifies and propagates the effect of monetary policy shocks on housing investment, house prices and consumption. We also consider the effect of a structural change in credit markets that lowers the transaction costs of additional borrowing against housing equity. We show that such a change would increase the effect of monetary policy shocks on consumption, but would decrease the effect on house prices and housing investment. 相似文献
2.
In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. We analyze this result in the context of developing economies, where a large proportion of households are credit constrained and the share of food expenditures in total consumption expenditures is high. We develop an open economy model with incomplete financial markets to show that headline inflation targeting improves welfare outcomes. We also compute the optimal price index, which includes a positive weight on food prices but, unlike headline inflation, assigns zero weight to import prices. 相似文献
3.
公众为何参与股市:经济增长、货币政策还是市场状态? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
基于中国证券登记结算公司提供的31省投资者开户数目,本文重点研究经济增长、货币政策以及金融市场发展对公众股市有限参与行为的影响。研究表明,经济发展与社会互动显著提高股市参与度,全国货币量和信贷水平增加(宽松的货币政策)并未对股市参与起促进作用,相反房地产市场发展显著降低股市参与度。此外,较高的市场收益显著提升投资者参与股市的程度,但投资风险特别是短期投资风险并未阻碍公众参与股市,这反映了我国公众投资的投机特点。本文研究结论为我国监管部门提供了明晰的政策建议,即加大投资者教育并提升正确投资理念。 相似文献
4.
We introduce time-varying systemic risk (à la He and Krishnamurthy, 2014) in an otherwise standard New-Keynesian model to study whether simple leaning-against-the-wind interest rate rules can reduce systemic risk and improve welfare. We find that while financial sector leverage contains additional information about the state of the economy that is not captured in inflation and output leaning against financial variables can only marginally improve welfare because rules are detrimental in the presence of falling asset prices. An optimal macroprudential policy, similar to a counter cyclical capital requirement, can eliminate systemic risk raising welfare by about 1.5%. Also, a surprise monetary policy tightening does not necessarily reduce systemic risk, especially during bad times. Finally, a volatility paradox a la Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2014) arises when monetary policy tries to excessively stabilize output. 相似文献
5.
李海平 《中央财经大学学报》2002,(10):22-25
政策工具是货币政策体系的重要因素之一。西方发达国家的货币政策工具选用体现出显著的特点。研究这些特点对于解决当前我国货币政策工具选用问题是极其必要的 ,货币政策工具的选用不但受到经济体制、经济金融发展状况等因素的影响 ,而且与一国的经济传统是分不开的。当前经济金融运行的特点决定了我国货币政策工具选用的特殊性。 相似文献
6.
Contrary to the arguments of Leeper (1997), the problems that arise in VAR investigations of monetary policy do not arise with our use of the narrative approach. The apparent high predictability of our monetary-policy variable that Leeper finds is due to overfitting. And the estimated effects of our measure when variables other than output are considered are unsurprising given Leeper's specifications. 相似文献
7.
本文以货币政策传导机制理论为基础,通过构建面板模型,对货币政策的区域效应进行定量分析,研究结果表明,中国货币政策存在明显的区域效应差异。从贷款投放对经济增长的刺激作用来看,中部、东北和东部地区省份的效果比较明显,而西部地区的效果较差。对于资本投入相对不足的西部地区,要加快实施西部大开发战略、调整区域经济结构、推动产业转移;对于资本积累充足的东部地区,要提高资本的边际产出率,提高经济效率。 相似文献
8.
We argue that changes in the monetary and financial regimes over the last twenty years or so have been subtly altering the dynamics of the economy and hence the challenges that monetary and prudential authorities face. In particular, the current environment may be more vulnerable to the occasional build up of financial imbalances, i.e. over-extensions in (private sector) balance sheets, which herald economic weakness and unwelcome disinflation down the road, as they unwind. As a result, achieving simultaneous monetary and financial stability in a lasting way may call for refinements to current monetary and prudential policy frameworks. These refinements would entail a firmer long-term focus, greater symmetry in policy responses between upswings and downswings, with greater attention to actions during upswings, and closer coordination between monetary and prudential authorities. 相似文献
9.
Argia M. Sbordone 《Journal of Monetary Economics》2007,54(5):1311-1339
In this paper, I consider the policy implications of two alternative structural interpretations of observed inflation persistence, which correspond to two alternative specifications of the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). The first specification allows for some degree of intrinsic persistence by way of a lagged inflation term in the NKPC. The second is a purely forward-looking model, in which expectations farther into the future matter and coefficients are time-varying. In this specification, most of the observed inflation persistence is attributed to fluctuations in the underlying inflation trend, which are a consequence of monetary policy rather than a structural feature of the economy. With a simple quantitative exercise, I illustrate the consequences of implementing monetary policy, assuming a degree of intrinsic persistence that differs from the true one. The results suggest that the costs of implementing a stabilization policy when the policymaker overestimates the degree of intrinsic persistence are potentially higher than the costs of ignoring actual structural persistence; the result is more clear-cut when the policymaker minimizes a welfare-based loss function. 相似文献
10.
We evaluate two main views on pursuing financial stability within a flexible inflation-targeting regime. It appears that potential
gains from an activist or precautionary approach to promoting financial stability are highly shock dependent. We find support
for the conventional view that concern for financial stability generally warrants a longer target horizon for inflation. The
preferred target horizon depends on the financial stability indicator and the shock. An extension of the target horizon favoring
financial stability may contribute to relatively higher variation in inflation and output.
相似文献
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12.
宫芳 《中央财经大学学报》2000,(3):44-48
本文从美国经济的持续增长入手,主要探讨美联储审慎的货币政策在美国“新经济”中的作用。通过分析美联储在1998-1999年以利率为主线、以其他货币政策工具为补充的货币政策的实施过程,并具体剖析了其主要特点,最后对我国在货币政策的实施过程中就各种货币政策工具提出了一些建议。 相似文献
13.
货币政策十大理论问题辨析 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
崔建军 《中央财经大学学报》2004,(5):19-25
采取对比分析的研究方法,讨论了当前流行的有关货币政策10大理论问题,得出了有别于传统观点的新的结论:货币政策不等同于金融政策;存款准备金政策的真正价值不在于\"存在\"而在于\"实际应用\";货币政策与金融监管之间不是平行关系而是主从关系;货币政策4大目标之间不是并存关系而是继起关系等.在此基础上,结合中国实际提出了充分发挥货币政策结构性调控功能、财政政策与货币政策的组合搭配应审时度势、灵活运用的对策思路. 相似文献
14.
基于封闭经济下一般均衡分析框架,通过将内生劳动力供给引入Sidrauski模型,从货币供应量层面分析了货币政策对居民就业的影响。研究发现:如果消费者对商品消费的相对风险规避程度大于(小于)1,那么扩张性货币政策会促进(抑制)居民就业。考虑到目前中国居民消费的相对风险规避程度比较大,因而政府实施扩张性的货币政策有利于增加居民就业,实证检验也证实了这一结论。但从长期来看,居民消费的相对风险规避程度呈下降趋势,过度依赖于扩张性的货币政策来解决失业问题是不可行的。 相似文献
15.
This paper studies the implications of cross-country housing-market heterogeneity in a monetary union for both shock transmission and welfare. I develop a two-country new Keynesian general equilibrium model with housing and collateral constraints to explore this issue. The conventional wisdom is that welfare would be higher in a monetary union if mortgage markets were homogeneous. This paper shows instead that welfare is higher only when homogenization does not result in higher aggregate volatility (because of financial accelerator effects) or does not redistribute too much wealth from borrowers to savers. 相似文献
16.
This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and investor sentiment across conventional and unconventional monetary policy regimes. During conventional times, we find that a surprise decrease in the fed funds rate leads to a large increase in investor sentiment. Similarly, when the fed funds rate is at its zero lower bound, research results indicate that expansionary unconventional monetary policy shocks also have a large and positive impact on investor mood. Together, our findings highlight the importance of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the determination of investor sentiment. 相似文献
17.
中国开放经济下的财政和货币政策--规范和实证分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
晁毓欣 《中央财经大学学报》2002,(9):5-8
本文在对IS -LM -BP模型公式化的基础上 ,推导出开放经济下的财政政策和货币政策乘数 ;并对近年来我国财政政策和货币政策对经济增长的贡献进行了实证分析。结论是 :IS -LM -BP模型的分析方法在我国目前是适用的 ;我国财政政策乘数大于货币政策乘数。利用其测算的结果较接近官方公布的数字。 相似文献
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19.
金融体系在货币政策传导过程中起“中介”作用,货币渠道过程是通过金融市场从货币政策冲击到市场零售利率的价格传导过程,信贷渠道是通过商业银行从中央银行到商业银行的数量传导过程。完善我国金融体系有利于提高货币政策传导效果,同时也是市场经济体制改革的要求,我国中央银行实施货币政策时应该考虑区域金融差异的客观事实。 相似文献
20.
中国的股票价格波动及货币政策反应 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
于长秋 《中央财经大学学报》2006,(3):45-49
本文在阐述中国的股票价格波动情况及成因的基础上,分析中国股票价格的信息功能,并对中国的股票价格与各层次货币供应量进行协整和Granger因果检验。结果表明,从总体上看,中国的股票价格在1995年之后,具备一定的信息功能;股票价格与各层次货币供应量之间存在协整、因果关系。由此,货币当局应对股票价格波动做出反应。文章以前瞻性利率规则为基础,运用IS—PC—AP模型,采用GMM法估计出中国包含股票价格因素的货币政策反应函数。 相似文献