不良资产证券化的现实意义及实施设想

本文通过研究国际上不良资产证券化的历史和发展趋势,认为不良资产证券化在交易结构、特殊目的载体、制度安排、定价、评级、资产管理等问题上都有着和一般信贷资产证券化不同的特点;不良资产证券化不仅在理论上是可行的,而且对我国商业银行加快不良资产处置进度、提高不良资产回收率、改善信贷资产结构、提高盈利能力等方面具有积极的现实意义;同时,作者提出为推动我国的不良资产证券化进程,需要加快开展不良资产证券化的试点活动;从法律、会计、税收制度等多方面消除原有制度障碍,降低证券化交易成本;提高证券化产品的市场流动性,刺激市场创新活动.     

消费金融资产证券化与系统性风险管理研究

在强大的市场需求和金融科技支持下,消费金融公司自正式试点以来呈现良好的发展态势,其中资产证券化成为消费金融公司的重要融资方式。资产证券化在助力消费金融公司增资扩容、改善流动性和提高运营稳健性的同时,也促使消费金融行业风险高并导致诉讼案件的增加。本文基于捷赢个人消费贷款资产支持证券的经验证据,明确了消费金融创新、消费金融风险与金融市场系统性风险管理之间的内在联系,揭示可以通过大数据精准获客、规范催收行为和智能风险防控等措施为消费金融市场发展保驾护航。因此,针对消费金融资产证券化,政府应制定专门的政策法规以强化风险管理,不断完善消费金融资产的监管机制,借助系统性风险管理来规避套利和资金风险,进而促进消费金融资产证券化的稳健有序发展。     

The Interplay among Financial Regulations,Resilience, and Growth

Interconnectedness has been an important source of market failures, leading to the recent financial crisis. Large financial institutions tend to have similar exposures and thus exert externalities on each other through various mechanisms. Regulators have responded by putting in place more regulations with many layers of regulatory complexity, leading to ambiguity and market manipulation. Mispricing risk in complex models and the arbitrage opportunities through the regulatory loopholes have provided incentives for certain activities to be more concentrated in the regulated entities and for other activities to leave the banking into new shadow banking areas. How can we design an effective regulatory framework that would perfectly rule out bank runs and TBTF and to do so without introducing incentives for financial firms to take excessive risk? It is important for financial regulations to be coordinated across regulatory entities and jurisdictions and for financial regulations to be forward looking, rather than aiming to address problems of the past.     

Empirical investigation of securitisation drivers: the case of Italian banks

This paper explores the determinants of securitisation by Italian banks over the period 1999–2006, investigating the funding, specialisation, and regulatory capital arbitrage hypotheses. According to our evidence, when we consider all securitisation types together, Italian banks seem to have securitised out of funding motives, to diversify and optimise their available funding channels. When we separately consider securitisations backed by residential mortgages and those backed by non-performing loans, we find that the main factors affecting the former type of securitisation are the need for funding and capital arbitrage motivation, whereas the latter appear to have been affected to a lesser extent by a need for funding and to have also been slightly conditioned by a desire to specialise.     

Chinese jigsaw: Solving the equity market response to the COVID-19 crisis: Do alternative asset provide effective hedging performance?

Against COVID-19 risks, this paper examines the hedging performance of alternative assets including some financial assets and commodities futures for the Chinese stock market in a multi-scale setting. Dynamic conditional correlations and optimal hedge ratios of the Shanghai stock exchange with Bitcoin, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gold, WTI, Bonds and VIX returns are estimated before and during the pandemic crisis. In the short-term, the use of wavelet decomposition shows that Bitcoin provides the best hedge to the Shanghai stock market. In the long-term, commodities dominate. Whereas WTI offers the highest hedging effectiveness, Gold ranks second by a slight margin. These results allow investors to choose the highest returns and protecting tail risk during the current sanitary crisis. Our findings suggest particularly more pronounced economic benefit of diversification including alternative financial assets while commodities futures serve as good hedge assets especially during unpredictable crisis like the current sanitary crisis relating to the covid-19.     

巴塞尔Ⅲ下市场风险资本框架的改革及中国商业银行的应用

本次金融危机中众多欧美大型银行因市场风险控制不力而遭受巨大损失。为此,巴塞尔委员会对原有的市场风险监管框架做出修订,并以此构成了巴塞尔Ⅲ的重要组成部分。本文基于对巴塞尔市场风险监管框架发展的思路和脉络分析,研究和评价了金融危机后巴塞尔Ⅲ下市场风险资本框架的改革。最后结合我国商业银行实践,分析了我国市场风险管理的发展及对巴塞尔市场风险监管框架的应用。     

新时代背景下我国农民生物资产融资对策研究

新时代背景下我国农民生物资产融资具备融资的国情基础和政策支持,融资具有必要性和可行性。同时它作为新生事物,也面临一些困境。为此,本文从制定国家的法律规范、提高金融机构的协同机制,普及农民的金融知识和构建生物资产评估体系几方面,提出几点对策建议。     

Capital market equilibrium with heterogeneous investors

As a two-parameter model that satisfies stochastic dominance, the mean-extended Gini model is used to build efficient portfolios. The model quantifies risk aversion heterogeneity in capital markets. In a simple Edgeworth box framework, we show how capital market equilibrium is achieved for risky assets. This approach provides a richer basis for analysing the pricing of risky assets under heterogeneous preferences. Our main results are: (1) identical investors, who use the same statistic to represent risk, hold identical portfolios of risky assets equal to the market portfolio; and (2) heterogeneous investors as expressed by the variance or the extended Gini hold different risky assets in portfolios, and therefore no one holds the market portfolio.     

特殊经济恢复期内商业银行经营调整之策

当前全球经济运行处于2008年金融危机后的特殊经济恢复期,外部市场和金融监管环境都在发生重大变化。本文认为,在深刻理解和准确把握当前经济恢复特殊性的基础上,商业银行需要从形势判断、风险选择、风险安排、资本管理、内部控制、产品创新、结构调整等多方面采取措施,积极主动安排风险,有效平衡资本、风险和收益,形成适合自身特点的经营策略,才能化挑战为机遇。     

Capital changes at large affiliated banks

The federal bank regulators imposed numerical capital guidelines in December 1981. If these guidelines are binding, then banking organizations may respond to the costs of regulation in various ways. If the regulations are not binding, then further reliance may be placed on market discipline. This study develops two models of changes in the equity capital to assets ratio of large banks affiliated with bank holding companies—a regulatory model in which capital regulations are a binding influence and a market model in which financial markets influence capital ratios. The two models are examined empirically through a disequilibrium framework and maximum likelihood estimation techniques. The results suggest that most banks are predominantly influenced by regulatory forces. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Florida State University     

Why European Banks Are Undercapitalized and What Should Be Done About It

Major European banks are significantly undercapitalized as compared to large American banks, and, more importantly, as compared to the capital levels they would need to survive another severe financial crisis. Bank capital shortfalls in Italy, Spain, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, in particular, are largely the consequence of European bank regulations that: (1) apply static risk weights to assets like mortgages and sovereign debt; (2) fail to require an overall market‐based capital ratio that is high enough to enable banks to survive a severe financial crisis; (3) fail to get banks to promptly write down their impaired assets to market value; (4) subject banks to weak stress tests that can create a false impression of capital adequacy; and (5) fail to compel banks to retain sufficient earnings and to raise sufficient capital externally to eliminate capital shortfalls promptly, all apparently out of fear that being tougher might cause investors and customers to lose confidence in the banks. This article summarizes important recent independent bank stress testing that has quantified the capital shortfalls in European banks. The recent highly publicized regulatory interventions to resolve failing European banks were inevitable due to these shortfalls. The authors recommend steps European bank regulators should take to address the problem and to eliminate the risk of serious capital shortfalls. In the absence of such steps, bank depositors, customers, and security holders should be prepared to expect further unwelcome surprises as the risks inherent in allowing undercapitalized banks to operate will continue to materialize in more bank failures.     

Is Historical Cost Accounting a Panacea? Market Stress,Incentive Distortions,and Gains Trading

Accounting rules, through their interactions with capital regulations, affect financial institutions’ trading behavior. The insurance industry provides a laboratory to explore these interactions: life insurers have greater flexibility than property and casualty insurers to hold speculative‐grade assets at historical cost, and the degree to which life insurers recognize market values differs across U.S. states. During the financial crisis, insurers facing a lesser degree of market value recognition are less likely to sell downgraded asset‐backed securities. To improve their capital positions, these insurers disproportionately resort to gains trading, selectively selling otherwise unrelated bonds with high unrealized gains, transmitting shocks across markets.     

Banks’ capital buffer,risk and performance in the Canadian banking system: Impact of business cycles and regulatory changes

Using quarterly financial statements and stock market data from 1982 to 2010 for the six largest Canadian chartered banks, this paper documents positive co-movement between Canadian banks’ capital buffer and business cycles. The adoption of Basel Accords and the balance sheet leverage cap imposed by Canadian banking regulations did not change this cyclical behavior of Canadian bank capital. We find Canadian banks to be well-capitalized and that they hold a larger capital buffer in expansion than in recession, which may explain how they weathered the recent subprime financial crisis so well. This evidence that Canadian banks ride the business and regulatory periods underscores the appropriateness of a both micro- and a macro-prudential “through-the-cycle” approach to capital adequacy as advocated in the proposed Basel III framework to strengthen the resilience of the banking sector.     

Does gold Liquidity learn from the greenback or the equity?

This study seeks to understand and elucidate shifts of gold, dollar, and stock market liquidity, both before and after the 2008 financial crisis. The relationship among these assets is examined by allowing for nonlinear dynamics in the speed of adjustment to the equilibrium. The findings document the predictability role of liquidity proxies of dollar and equity on gold liquidity even after accounting for macroeconomic variables, suggesting that liquidity of both assets maintains an influence on gold behavior. During periods of high exchange-rate volatility between currencies, gold liquidity becomes highly affected by dollar liquidity movements through a nonlinear smooth transition framework. Yet evidence reveals that to fully understand the movements of gold and dollar it is necessary to factor in stock market liquidity as well.     

Bank market power,asset liquidity and funding liquidity: International evidence

Our investigation of the association between bank market power and liquidity in 101 countries reveals that a bank's initial gains of market power lead to increases in bank liquidity, but does so at a diminishing rate. Beyond an empirically determined threshold, further increases in market power are inversely associated with bank liquidity. From a cross-sectional viewpoint, banks that lack market power hold more liquid assets and are net lenders in the interbank market. In contrast, dominant banks hold less liquid assets and are net interbank borrowers. For a given level of market power, ceteris paribus, developed nation banks hold less asset liquidity and obtain more interbank funding liquidity than their developing country peers. These results remain equally relevant during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis (GFC).     

Corporate investment during the financial crisis: Evidence from China

China's growth model suggests that the 2008 financial crisis may have affected the Chinese economy differently from what one observes in mature market economies. In this paper, we examine how Chinese corporate investment responded to the financial crisis by using 1689 listed nonfinancial firms during Q12006–Q32010. We document that (1) the overall impact of the financial crisis on Chinese corporate investment is negative; (2) among three channels conveying the effect of the financial crisis, namely, the demand channel, the financial constraints channel, and the uncertainty channel, the demand channel dominates; (3) financial assets held by a nonfinancial firm are important in explaining the firm's fixed investment behaviour; (4) as compared to non-state firms, state-controlled firms are less affected by the financial crisis and more active in engaging in financial assets investment; and (5) foreign ownership can be seen as a buffer against the negative effect of the financial crisis and foreign-involved Chinese firms are less active in financial assets investment as compared to domestic firms.     

Project Finance Collateralised Debt Obligations: an Empirical Analysis of Spread Determinants

Credit rating is the most important variable in determining tranche spread at issue on collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) issues backed by project finance (PF) loans. Factors that are important for pricing in the case of corporate bonds, such as market liquidity and weighted average maturity, are also relevant for determining spreads for these securities. Furthermore, the nature of the underlying assets has a substantial impact on CDO pricing: Primary market spread is significantly higher when the underlying PF loans bear a higher level of market risk and when the proportion of projects still under construction in the securitised portfolio is larger.     

Effects of sterilising a balance of payments surplus on domestic yields—A formal analysis

This paper examines the effects of sterilising a surplus, using open market operations, on the level and structure of interest rates. The framework adopted is a portfolio balance model of the financial sector. The paper begins by assuming residents hold assets in only three forms—domestic money, domestic bonds, and foreign assets. Initially, the surplus emerges in one of three ways—the foreign interest rate falls, there is an exogenous inflow, or there is an ongoing current account surplus. The analysis is then extended to the case where there is some direct real investment. Finally, the model is refined to allow residents to hold four assets, including new equities.     

限制交易政策如何影响期现关系?——对股指期货价格发现功能的实证检验

本文利用2015年中国股市大幅下跌期间,对股指期货严格限制交易政策这一独特事件前后的高频数据,研究限制交易政策对股指期货与股票市场价格引导关系的影响。利用I-S模型和分位数回归方法的实证结果表明:限制交易政策实施前,股指期货对股票市场的价格影响更强,尤其表现在价格急剧下跌时期;限制交易政策显著增加了期货市场交易成本,从而降低了期货市场的信息份额,削弱了其对股票市场的价格影响,并且改变了期货价格对现货价格“助跌强于助涨”的影响模式,增强了股指期货在价格上涨时对股票市场的影响。研究结果一方面直接量化了期货交易成本变动对其价格发现功能的负面影响,另一方面也从价格引导关系的视角提供了股市危机时期股指期货限制交易政策监管效果的实证证据。     

中国银行业系统流动性风险考察与控制——基于资产抛售价格视角

基于银行业在宏观风险来临时出现的流动性不足和系统性风险,通过建立 DSGE-VAR 模型,考量银行业在宏观经济运行框架下的系统流动性风险,结果发现:银行同业借贷、其他证券资产和交易性负债业务的综合作用会使得银行系统流动性风险总体增大,银行如果想要降低存款提取率对其流动性的影响,就要在银行间市场停止拆出资金、出售政府证券及其他流动资产,并出售潜在的流动性较低的资产.从监管层面来讲,应当通过监管的引导效应将交易性负债进行转化,引导同业借贷和其他证券资产业务向平衡区域集中,并在一定范围内减少银行其他证券资产业务的规模.