The implications of fossil fuel supply constraints on climate change projections: A supply-side analysis

Climate projections are based on emission scenarios. The emission scenarios used by the IPCC and by mainstream climate scientists are largely derived from the predicted demand for fossil fuels, and in our view take insufficient consideration of the constrained emissions that are likely due to the depletion of these fuels. This paper, by contrast, takes a supply-side view of CO₂ emission, and generates two supply-driven emission scenarios based on a comprehensive investigation of likely long-term pathways of fossil fuel production drawn from peer-reviewed literature published since 2000. The potential rapid increases in the supply of the non-conventional fossil fuels are also investigated. Climate projections calculated in this paper indicate that the future atmospheric CO₂ concentration will not exceed 610 ppm in this century; and that the increase in global surface temperature will be lower than 2.6 °C compared to pre-industrial level even if there is a significant increase in the production of non-conventional fossil fuels. Our results indicate therefore that the IPCC’s climate projections overestimate the upper-bound of climate change. Furthermore, this paper shows that different production pathways of fossil fuels use, and different climate models, are the two main reasons for the significant differences in current literature on the topic.     

Food Security Challenge of Climate Change: An Analysis for Policy Selection

Food security and the ability to meet this fundamental need is without a doubt an important objective to all nations. This study deals with climate change adaptation and its costs-benefits with an empirical analysis optimizing food security related adaptation strategy over a 50-year time frame. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied to describe the potential effects of climate change on food security and examine the implications of future strategies for Malaysia. Specifically, this study considers the potential effects of climate change on food security and explores the prioritizing of mitigation options. Different scenarios show a baseline scenario without adaptation action followed by introduction of adaptation actions. The analysis reveals important contrasts from baseline to future options over time. The results indicate that food sustainability gap in Malaysia is about 30–35% below the national targets in 2015 (baseline) and the gap is rising over time due to climatic effects in agriculture. However, applying different levels of adaptation actions, (e.g. 5–20%) food security gaps are reduced over time considerably. The projected adaptation strategies applied in this study would be effective and helpful to support sustainable food security related strategies in Malaysia.     

The role of accounting in supporting adaptation to climate change

The study is one of the first concerned with the topic of accounting and climate change adaptation. It proposes that the accounting role can support organisational climate change adaptation by performing the following functions: (i) a risk assessment function (assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity), (ii) a valuation function (valuing adaptation costs and benefits) and (iii) a disclosure function (disclosure of risk associated with climate change impacts). This study synthesises and expands on existing research and practice in environmental accounting and sets the scene for future research and practice in the emerging area of accounting for climate risk.     

基于VAR模型下粮食价格、农业生产成本与农民收入的实证研究

通过脉冲响应函数得出农业生产资料价格与粮食价格,同时上涨,部分或者完全抵消了粮食价格上涨以及国家试图提高农民收入、调节收入分配而出台的各项优惠政策对农民收入的增加效应。Granger因果检验说明粮食价格、农民收入分别是农业生产成本的Granger原因。为此,政府必须将农业生产资料价格的上涨幅度控制在合理区间,改善农村物流现状,规范农资市场的经营等。     

Bounding the future: The use of scenarios in assessing climate change impacts

This paper investigates the contribution of socio-economic scenarios to improve decisions and policies in climate assessments. We specifically looked at adaptation projects in the Dutch Climate changes Spatial Planning programme. Based on the four decision failure criteria neglect of internal information, bounded rationality, insufficient expansion of existing mental models and stickiness and lack of friction of information and knowledge, it was concluded that in these projects, socio-economic scenarios appear to generate useful data, but that their full potential to reduce decision failure is not likely to be exploited. Therefore adaptation options suggested by these studies may not be ‘future-proof’: they may be appropriate in some future societies, but fail in others. We believe similar results would be obtained in other contexts. Possible decision failures are caused by neglecting socio-economic developments, limiting the number of storylines generated by scenario studies to one or two, lack of stakeholder involvement in the scenario development and ignoring discontinuities.     

Free market environmentalism and the neoliberal project: The case of the Climate Disclosure Standards Board

In the absence of good social, political, economic and environmental policy, the ecological status of the planet continues to deteriorate. In this paper, we argue that environmental decline has provided scope for new forms of policy-making, yet these emergent policies and policy-making bodies remain poorly understood. Drawing on the work of political geographers and political economists this paper explores the impact of neoliberalism on the development of global environmental regulation. We argue that climate disclosure practices and regulation have provided an opportunity to reinforce the ideological landscape of neoliberalism. In order to anchor this argument, we show that the origins of carbon regulation have emerged almost exclusively from within non-elected coalitions of multinationals operating through private, not-for-profit entities. These organisations continue to shape community expectations and influence government of climate change abatement strategies. To explore the impact neoliberalism has had on the environment, we examine the Climate Disclosure Standards Board (CDSB), its role, and its global impact on the regulation of reporting firms.     

When science meets strategic realpolitik: The case of the Copenhagen UN climate change summit

This paper argues that the impasse over tackling climate change at the 2009 climate change summit is a result of the outcome of the prevailing power and politics at the summit. The paper discusses the sociological literature on power and notes that the failure of the summit illustrates the fragility of legitimacy and authority. The paper rehearses key parts of the chronology of the summit and argues that the politics of domination often prevail over the politics of legitimacy. Moreover, the way in which both science and politics have failed to legitimate the issue of climate change is explored. The paper closes with a discussion of what is required to fix the issue as legitimate and meriting serious action by major international agencies and economies.     

Anticipatory policymaking in global venues: Policy change,adaptation, and the UNFCCC

The subfield of public policy depicts policymaking as reactive process wherein public officials respond to existing social problems. While this depiction holds true in many cases, it fails to account for instances where policy change occurs in anticipation of emerging threats or hazards. “Anticipatory problems” are projected to occur in the future, and it is the prospect of their occurring that generates policy debate. This paper examines the policymaking pattern engendered by anticipatory policy problems, highlighting the ways in which they challenge and support existing assumptions about the process of policy change. To illustrate this distinctive dynamic, this paper will present a case study examining the evolving debate over climate change adaptation policy within United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).     

Climate governance effects on carbon disclosure and performance

Integration of carbon oversight into board structures and processes has the potential to improve carbon performance and demonstrate accountability to stakeholders. However, it is not clear how climate governance affects carbon disclosure. Contributing to two strands of the literature, sustainability and governance issues, this paper examines the combined impact of climate governance on carbon disclosure. We find climate governance is associated with alignment between carbon disclosure and carbon performance. The results suggest that climate governance also reduces over-acclaiming of good performance via extensive disclosure, and low-polluters disclose more to differentiate themselves. Our findings highlight the importance of the frequency of reporting to the board and time horizon of carbon reporting for improving carbon disclosure and carbon performance. In contrast to traditional governance mechanisms, our results suggest climate governance better reflects firms’ commitment to addressing sustainability issues and transparent reporting.     

The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility

Stock prices reflect the value of anticipated future profits of companies. Since business cycle conditions impact the future profitability of firms, expectations about the business cycle will affect the current value of firms. This paper uses daily and monthly data from July 1986 to December 2000 to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of US technology stock price conditional volatility. Technology share prices are measured using the Pacific Stock Exchange Technology 100 Index. One of the novel features of this paper is to incorporate a link between technology stock price movements and oil price movements. The empirical results indicate that the conditional volatilities of oil prices, the term premium, and the consumer price index each have a significant impact on the conditional volatility of technology stock prices. Conditional volatilities calculated using daily stock return data display more persistence than conditional volatilities calculated using monthly data. These results further our understanding of the interaction between oil prices and technology share prices and should be of use to investors, hedgers, managers, and policymakers.     

Explaining green bond issuance using survey evidence: Beyond the greenium

The paper examines the drivers and challenges of issuing green bonds from the perspective of green bond issuers. Using survey evidence of global issuers representing 29% of total green bond issuances, the research shows that reputational benefits, the market signalling power of green bonds and a desire to curb climate change are the main motives for green bond issuance. In contrast, insufficient market evolvement, and a lack of awareness and suitable green projects represent the biggest barriers for entry to the green bond market. Most respondents consider green bond issuance costs to be higher than those of comparable plain vanilla bonds, but acceptable due to the benefits they derive from green bond issuances. Among these benefits, respondents report higher levels of demand for green bonds, higher levels of investor engagement, diversification of their investor base and a strengthened internal commitment to sustainability. Issuers' experiences vary regarding the pricing of green bonds – with 48% of respondents stating that their green bond funding costs are the same as for their plain vanilla bonds and 42% reporting lower green bond funding costs. Most issuers favour a standardisation of the definition of ‘green’ for determining which projects can be funded via green bonds.     

Change in Inventory and Firm Valuation

This study examines the effect of the informativeness of change in inventory on firm valuation. A firm's change in inventory is informative if its percentage change in cost of goods sold is positively and significantly associated with its lag one percentage of production added to inventory (a measure of change in inventory). Sample firms are divided into two groups: firms with informative change in inventory, and other firms. Analyses then are performed to examine the association between stock price and earnings. Results consistently show that the association is higher for firms with informative change in inventory. Thus, knowledge on the informativeness of change in inventory is useful for firm valuation.     

Accounting for climate change and the self-regulation of carbon disclosures

Adopting a form of “critical dialogic engagement” (Bebbington et al., 2007), this paper explores how dominant environmental discourses can influence and shape carbon disclosure regulation. Carbon-related disclosures have increased significantly in the last five years, and many of these disclosures remain voluntary. This paper considers both the construction of self-regulated carbon disclosure practices and the role that this kind of carbon information may have in climate change-related decision making. Our preliminary findings indicate that the methodological diversity underpinning carbon disclosures may inhibit the usefulness of climate change-related data. To explore these issues, this paper focuses on the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) and the use of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Protocol as a reporting model within it.     

Characterizing desired futures of Canadian communities

In sustainability research and practice, one method widely used in exploration is visioning, in which desirable sustainable futures are articulated and explored in depth. Communities across Canada have used this method to develop collective desirable futures, in many cases to provide an end goal for local sustainable development. In this paper, we conduct a meta­-analysis of desired futures created by communities across Canada with the aim of identifying regional commonalities according to the three pillars of sustainability, social, environmental, and economic. Although sustainability demands a balance between its social, economic and environmental components, Canadians futures apparently place the greatest importance on social aspects with 338 desires against 222 and 230 respectively for economic and environmental sustainability. Community (105); Infrastructure, development, and transportation (126); and Natural environment (157) are the categories most frequently recorded within each of the three components of sustainability. The meta­analysis also noted significant differences amongst regions. The study was conducted in the context of an initiative known as the Sustainable Canada Dialogues that mobilized 60+ scholars from across the country around a consensus on science ­based, viable solutions for greenhouse gas reduction. Our results suggest that climate policy that simultaneously reduces greenhouse gas emissions while enhancing some of the key aspects of social sustainability would be attractive to many Canadians.     

Vulnerability to climate change: Are innovative countries in a better position?

The impact of climate change on organizations and economies remains one of the most significant yet underestimated threats. Although the consequences of climate change have started to gain attention among policy makers, international business research on this issue is lagging behind. Drawing from the knowledge and innovation literatures, we explore the impact of a country’s degree of innovation on its vulnerability to climate change. Using a longitudinal sample of 73 countries for the years of 1998–2013, we examine the impact of innovation, openness to trade, and regulatory quality on a country’s vulnerability to climate change. We find that R&D expenditures as a percentage of GDP (innovation input), openness to trade, and regulatory quality decrease a country’s vulnerability to climate change. We also find that openness to trade moderates the effect of patenting rates (innovation output) on a country’s vulnerability to climate change.     

The Co-op Discount

Cooperative and condominium housing differ in several ways that might be expected to influence their pricing. Most but not all of these differences argue for a higher valuation for condominiums. Hedonic equations estimated on a national sample indicate that the price differential on the average condo/co-op unit in 1987 was 12%. Condos maintain a price premium under a variety of specifications, although its magnitude depends on the bundle of attributes being priced.     

Detecting local environmental change: the role of experience in shaping risk judgments about global warming

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events (e.g. flooding, heat waves, and wildfires). As a result, it is often reasoned that as more individuals experience unusual weather patterns that are consistent with changing climate conditions, the more their concern about global warming will increase, and the more motivated they will become to respond and address the problem effectively. Social science research evaluating the relationships between personal experiences with and risk perceptions of climate change, however, show mixed results. Here, we analyze a representative statewide survey of Floridians and compare their risk perceptions of five-year trends in climate change with local weather station data from the five years preceding the survey. The results show that Floridians are unable to detect five-year increases in temperature, but some can detect changes in precipitation. Despite an inability to detect the correct direction of change, respondents were significantly more likely than not to correctly identify the season in which most change occurred. Nevertheless, compared to local experience, risk perceptions of climate change were more strongly predicted by subjective experiences of environmental change, personal beliefs about climate change, and political ideology. Results from the study suggest that long-term changes in climate patterns and extreme weather events need to be interpreted by weather and climate experts within the context of climate change; individuals cannot be expected to detect or comprehend such complex linkages directly.     

Do banks fuel climate change?

Do climate-oriented regulatory policies affect the flow of credit towards polluting firms? We match loan-level data to firm-level greenhouse gas emissions to assess the impact of the Paris Agreement. We find that, following this agreement, European banks reallocated credit away from polluting firms in relative terms. Specifically, euro area banks’ loan share to more polluting firms decreased by about 3percentage points compared to less polluting (or “green”) firms after the 2015 Paris Agreement (COP21). This result is stronger for banks that are well capitalized, have lower credit quality, and are less profitable.     

Drivers of tight carbon control in the context of climate change regulation

Our study examines the drivers of tight budgetary control in carbon management in the context of climate change regulation. Using the setting of New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), our study explores how firms manage their carbon performance using carbon-focused budgetary control. Based on a survey data from New Zealand firms, including both those with and those without an ETS compliance obligations, our results suggest that economic and regulatory environmental pressures, the level of proactiveness of emissions management strategy, the level of integration of carbon issues in strategic and operational processes and the perceived importance of carbon issues are the significant drivers of tight carbon-focused budgetary control.     

Carbon Cap-and-Trade in China: A Comprehensive Framework

This article proposes a comprehensive framework to explore a possible carbon cap-and-trade scheme in China. By applying the case of China, our empirical results present the demand side and supply side of carbon-emission permits in the market and several other significant findings: (i) carbon dioxide (CO₂) marginal abatement cost varies a lot among different regions; (ii) in total, CO₂ emissions could have been reduced by 5.14 billion tons if all the provinces had achieved their anticipated environmental performance during 1997–2014; (iii) the equilibrium price of CO₂ trading is 241 RMB/ton, irrelevant to the original allocation of allowances.