Evaluating the effectiveness of Washington state repeated job search services on the employment rate of prime-age female welfare recipients

This paper uses an unbalanced panel dataset to evaluate how repeated job search services (JSS) and personal characteristics affect the employment rate of the prime-age female welfare recipients in the State of Washington. We propose a transition probability model to take into account issues of sample attrition, sample refreshment and duration dependence. We also generalize Honoré and Kyriazidou’s [Honoré, B.E., Kyriazidou, E., 2000. Panel data discrete choice models with lagged dependent variables. Econometrica 68 (4), 839–874] conditional maximum likelihood estimator to allow for the presence of individual-specific effects. A limited information test is suggested to test for selection issues in non-experimental data. The specification tests indicate that the (conditional on the set of the confounding variables considered) assumptions of no selection due to unobservables and/or no unobserved individual-specific effects are not violated. Our findings indicate that the first job search service does have positive and significant impacts on the employment rate. However, providing repeated JSS to the same client has no significant impact. Further, we find that there are significant experience-enhancing effects. These findings suggest that providing one job search services training to individuals may have a lasting impact on raising their employment rates.     

Limiting distribution of the collision resolution interval

We use the theory of probability metrics to study the asymptotic normality of the collison resolution intervals in the CTM multi-access protocol under general conditions on the number of retransmitted messages and of new arrivals during the collision slots. Our main result establishes stability of the central limit theorem for the CTM algorithm. We provide extensive simulation results investigating the extent to which the mean of the collision resolution interval eventually becomes unstable for increasing values of n , the number of users who initially collide. The normal fit is numerically investigated and is shown to be quite satisfactory and stable with respect to moderate perturbations and n ≥50.     

The Monty Hall problem is not a probability puzzle* (It's a challenge in mathematical modelling)

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, ‘Do you want to pick door No. 2?’ Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? The answer is ‘yes’ but the literature offers many reasons why this is the correct answer. This article argues that the most common reasoning found in introductory statistics texts, depending on making a number of ‘obvious’ or ‘natural’ assumptions and then computing a conditional probability, is a classical example of solution driven science. The best reason to switch is to be found in von Neumann's minimax theorem from game theory, rather than in Bayes’ theorem.     

Conditioning as disintegration

Conditional probability distributions seem to have a bad reputation when it comes to rigorous treatment of conditioning. Technical arguments are published as manipulations of Radon–Nikodym derivatives, although we all secretly perform heuristic calculations using elementary definitions of conditional probabilities. In print, measurability and averaging properties substitute for intuitive ideas about random variables behaving like constants given particular conditioning information.
One way to engage in rigorous, guilt-free manipulation of conditional distributions is to treat them as disintegrating measures—families of probability measures concentrating on the level sets of a conditioning statistic. In this paper we present a little theory and a range of examples—from EM algorithms and the Neyman factorization, through Bayes theory and marginalization paradoxes—to suggest that disintegrations have both intuitive appeal and the rigor needed for many problems in mathematical statistics.     

浅谈医药企业贯彻实施ISO9000标准

简要论述了医药企业贯彻实施ISO9000的必要性,就如何开展贯标工作提出思路,并建议在贯标中应注意的问题。     

浅谈DLL15塑壳漏电断路器使用中遇到的问题

分析漏电保护器在TN-C系统中使用出现的问题,简要说明其处理方法及故障处理后的结果。     

某微型面包车滑移门运动系统的布置

文章对微型面包车运动系统的建立过程进行了分析,分析内容包括走轮臂结构的设计、截面的设计、导轨的布置、CAE分析验证等,经过系统地分析和总结,提高了设计效率,缩短了汽车的开发周期.     

我国纺织行业信息化发展战略分析——以ERP系统为核心

要用信息技术改造和提升传统产业,信息化建设势在必行。本文分析了纺织行业信息化的现状,指出当前纺织行业信息化存在的主要问题,提出了以ERP系统为核心的纺织行业信息化发展战略。     

新形势下新事业单位会计制度解读与探讨

事业单位会计制度已无法适应现代市场经济的发展,因此,财政部对《事业单位财务规则》进行了修订。新《事业单位财务制度》起了十分重要的积极作用,但在某些方面仍需进一步完善。     

学分制下教学管理的思考

文章介绍了我校实施学分制下的教学管理,学分制在我校的应用成果以及实施过程中出现的问题。     

我国信用问题研究述评

信用作为一种无形资产和经济资源,是市场经济有效运行的基础。本文在我国信用制度的发展和信用理论研究现状的基础上,分析了我国信用问题研究的特点和不足。     

对我国现代新供暖系统的简要介绍

在居住建筑中原有的采暖方式已经不能满足现有设计要求"能计量,可调节",它会被新的采暖方式取代。普通住宅属于居住建筑,其原有的采暖方式多用单管上供下回式和双管下供下回采暖系统,新的采暖方式多用户式采暖系统,双管下供下回采暖系统也可以使用。新、旧采暖方式在管道敷设、热负荷计算,设备选择,供暖水质等方面都有很大不同。     

企业如何实施ERP系统

本文从ERP的发展历史谈起,主要阐述了ERP系统的实施步骤以及在实施过程中应注意的一些问题。     

论军队审计体制改革

本文以国家审计体制改革和军队联勤体制改革为研究背景,在对现行军队审计体制的利弊进行剖析的基础上,提出了军队审计体制改革的目标,并通过理论和实践两方面的可行性分析,对建立中央军委审计署垂直领导下的审计委派制的军队审计体制改革方案进行了具体设想。