Volatility transmission between oil prices and equity sector returns

This paper employs bivariate GARCH models to simultaneously estimate the mean and conditional variance between five different US sector indexes and oil prices. Since many different financial assets are traded based on these market sector returns, it is important for financial market participants to understand the volatility transmission mechanism over time and across these series in order to make optimal portfolio allocation decisions. We examine weekly returns from January 1, 1992 to April 30, 2008 and find evidence of significant transmission of shocks and volatility between oil prices and some of the examined market sectors. The findings support the idea of cross-market hedging and sharing of common information by investors.     

What drives U.S. financial sector volatility? A Bayesian model averaging perspective

We investigate the driving forces behind the quarterly stock price volatility of firms in the U.S. financial sector over the period from 1990 to 2017. The driving forces represent a set of 28 economic indicators that are routinely used to detect financial instability and crises and correspond to the development of the financial, monetary, real, trade and fiscal sector as well as to the development of the bond and equity markets. The dimensionality and model choice uncertainty are addressed using Bayesian model averaging, which led to the identification of only seven variables that tend to systematically drive the stock price volatility of financial firms in the U.S.: housing prices, short-term interest rates, net national savings, default yield spread, and three credit market variables. We also confirm that our results are not an artefact of volatility associated with market downturns (for negative semi-volatility), as the results are similar even when market volatility is associated with market upsurge (positive semi-volatility). Given the identified drivers, our results provide supporting empirical evidence that dampening credit cycles might lead to decreased volatility in the financial sector.     

TESTING THE NET BUYING PRESSURE HYPOTHESIS DURING THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS: EVIDENCE FROM HANG SENG INDEX OPTIONS

We investigate net buying pressure in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index options market during the Asian financial crisis from July 1997 to August 1998. Our findings suggest that during this period, the dramatic changes in volatility overwhelmed the dynamics of supply and demand in the options market. The extremely high realized volatility drove market participants' expectations about future market volatility in the early months of the crisis. Findings during the late‐crisis, pre‐crisis, and post‐crisis periods are consistent with the net buying pressure hypothesis.     

Stock Volatility during the Recent Financial Crisis

This paper uses monthly returns from 1802 to 2010, daily returns from 1885 to 2010, and intraday returns from 1982 to 2010 in the USA to show how stock volatility has changed over time. It also uses various measures of volatility implied by option prices to infer what the market was expecting to happen in the months following the financial crisis in late 2008. This episode was associated with historically high levels of stock market volatility, particularly among financial sector stocks, but the market did not expect volatility to remain high for long and it did not. This is in sharp contrast to the prolonged periods of high volatility during the Great Depression. Similar analysis of stock volatility in the United Kingdom and Japan reinforces the notion that the volatility seen in the 2008 crisis was relatively short‐lived. While there is a link between stock volatility and real economic activity, such as unemployment rates, it can be misleading.     

The degree of financial liberalization and aggregated stock-return volatility in emerging markets

In this study, we address whether the degree of financial liberalization affects the aggregated total volatility of stock returns by considering the time-varying nature of financial liberalization. We also explore channels through which the degree of financial liberalization impacts aggregated total volatility. We document a negative relation to the degree of financial liberalization after controlling for size, liquidity, country, and crisis effects, especially for small and medium-sized markets. Moreover, the degree of financial liberalization transmits its negative impact on aggregated total volatility through aggregated idiosyncratic and local volatilities. Overall, our results provide evidence in favor of the view that the broadening of the investor base due to the increasing degree of financial liberalization causes a reduction in the total volatility of stock returns.     

Brand perception,cash flow stability,and financial policy

This paper demonstrates that intangible assets play an important role in financial policy. Using a proprietary database of consumer brand evaluation, I show that positive consumer attitude toward a firm's products alleviates financial frictions and provides additional net debt capacity, as measured by higher leverage and lower cash holdings. Brand perception affects financial policy through reducing overall firm riskiness, as strong consumer evaluations translate into lower future cash flow volatility as well as higher credit ratings for potentially volatile firms. The impact of brand is stronger among small firms, contradicting a number of reverse causality and omitted variables explanations.     

The determinants of the volatility of returns on cross-border asset holdings

Using both panel and cross-sectional models for 28 industrialized countries observed from 2001–2009, we report a number of findings regarding the determinants of the volatility of returns on cross-border asset holdings (i.e., equity and debt). Greater portfolio concentration and an increase in assets held in emerging markets lead to an elevation in earning volatility, whereas more financial integration and a greater share held in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries and by the household sector cause a reduction in the return volatility. Larger asset holdings by offshore financial corporations and non-bank financial institutions cause higher market volatility, although they affect volatility in the equity and bond markets in the opposite way. Overall, both panel and cross-sectional estimations provide very similar results (albeit of different magnitude) and are robust to the endogeneity problem.     

MENA stock market volatility persistence: Evidence before and after the financial crisis of 2008

The global financial crisis began with a financial meltdown in the United States in early 2008 and then it had spread to the rest of the world. In this paper we test whether the MENA equity market volatility presents a different behavior before and after the financial crisis of 2008. Using long range dependence techniques we test for long memory in the returns, absolute and squared returns of the MENA equity markets. We subject the series to unit root tests that allow for structural breaks and use the Bai and Perron (1998, Econometrica, 66, 47; 2003a, J. Appl. Econometrics, 6, 72; 2003b, Econometrics J., 18, 1) to test for multiple breaks in the mean returns. The results indicate that the volatility measures represented by absolute and squared returns show evidence of long memory for the full and subsample periods, while the returns show a weak evidence of long memory. Considering the shift dates and corresponding to the 2008 financial crisis, the returns and volatility measures display less evidence of long memory in the after crisis period as opposed to the before crisis period. The change in the returns and volatility dynamics of these markets was due to financial and economic conditions that took place in the MENA region after the crisis.     

Impact of FDICIA internal controls on bank risk taking

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act (FDICIA) of 1991 was designed, among other things, to introduce risk-based deposit insurance, increase capital requirements, and improve banks’ internal controls. Of particular interest in this study are the requirements for annual audit and reporting of management’s and auditor’s assessment of the effectiveness of internal control for banks with $500 million or more in total assets (raised to $1 billion in 2005). We study the impact of these requirements on banks’ risk-taking behavior prior to the recent financial crisis and the consequent implications for bank failure and financial trouble during the crisis period. Using a sample of 1138 banks, we provide evidence that banks required to comply with the FDICIA internal control requirements have lower risk taking in the pre-crisis period. Specifically, the volatility of net interest margin, the volatility of earnings, and Z score show less risk-taking behavior. Furthermore, these banks are less likely to experience failure and financial trouble during the crisis period.     

Does foreign institutional ownership increase return volatility? Evidence from China

This paper investigates the impact of foreign institutional ownership on firm-level stock return volatility in China, based on our study of a sample of 1458 firms between 1998 and 2008. The empirical results show that share ownership by foreign institutions (both financial and non-financial) increases firm-level stock return volatility, even after controlling for a complete ownership structure, firm size, turnover, and leverage, and correcting for potential endogeneity problems. However, the results also show that foreign individual shareholdings reduce volatility. Furthermore, we document a positive relationship between domestic shareholdings (individual, institutional, and governmental) and firm-level stock return volatility. Empirical results with interaction terms show that foreign institutional ownership increases firm-level return volatility by strengthening the positive impact of liquidity on volatility. The volatility reduction effect of foreign individual ownership is attenuated by government ownership suggests a poor governance environment as a result of the involvement of the Chinese government.     

Paulson's gift

We calculate the costs and benefits of the largest ever US government intervention in the financial sector announced during the 2008 Columbus-day weekend. We estimate that this intervention increased the value of banks’ financial claims by $130 billion (bn) at a taxpayers’ cost of $21–$44 billion with a net benefit between $86 and $109 bn. By looking at the limited cross section, we infer that this net benefit arises from a reduction in the probability of bankruptcy, which we estimate would destroy 22% of the enterprise value. The big winners of the plan were the bondholders of the three former investment banks and Citigroup, while the losers were JP Morgan shareholders and the US taxpayers.     

Unique Symptoms of Japanese Stagnation: An Equity Market Perspective

This paper documents several unique financial symptoms of Japanese economic stagnation in the 1990s. We find a surprising fall in firm-level volatility and turnover in Japanese stocks after the market crash in 1990. These results stand in sharp contrast to the U.S. case, where firm-level volatility generally increases after a market crash. Further analysis reveals a parallel sharp reduction in earnings heterogeneity among Japanese firms. Preliminary evidence suggests that the reduction in firm-level volatility may be related to Japanese business group protection. The large decrease in firm-level volatility may impede the equity market's information role, as it has made it more difficult over the past decade for both investors and managers to distinguish high quality from low-quality firms.     

Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads

Credit default swap (CDS) spreads display pronounced regime specific behaviour. A Markov switching model of the determinants of changes in the iTraxx Europe indices demonstrates that they are extremely sensitive to stock volatility during periods of CDS market turbulence. But in ordinary market circumstances CDS spreads are more sensitive to stock returns than they are to stock volatility. Equity hedge ratios are three or four times larger during the turbulent period, which explains why previous research on single-regime models finds stock positions to be ineffective hedges for default swaps. Interest rate movements do not affect the financial sector iTraxx indices and they only have a significant effect on the other indices when the spreads are not excessively volatile. Raising interest rates may decrease the probability of credit spreads entering a volatile period.     

Finance and consumption volatility: Evidence from India

The main objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of private consumption growth volatility in India, focusing on the role of financial sector policies. Using data for India over the period 1950-2005, the results show that the implementation of financial repressionist policies is strongly associated with lower consumption volatility. The results remain robust after controlling for a wide range of macroeconomic shocks and variables. The presence of a threshold effect implies that the benefits of financial reforms in reducing consumption volatility can only be reaped when the financial system becomes sufficiently liberalized. The results also indicate that the presence of a more open financial system may serve to dampen fluctuations in private consumption.     

Worldwide reach of short selling regulations

We characterize legality and incidence of short selling in a worldwide, multimarket framework. Home country short selling restrictions curtail home market stock borrowing by 45% and reduce short selling of the country's American Depository Receipts (ADRs) by 68% due to regulatory reach. Also, the 2008 US ban on short selling of financial firms reduced borrowing in foreign locations. These findings are robust to controls for option availability, enforcement, returns, firm size, trading volume, dividends, ADR level, volatility, days-to-cover, and industry sector. Further, we show that investor conduct resulting from adherence to professional standards is a more powerful mechanism of regulatory reach than intergovernment cooperation.     

Comparative analysis on the effects of the Asian and global financial crises on precious metal markets

The global financial crisis has vigorously struck major financial markets around the world, in particular in the developed economies since they have suffered the most. However, some commodity markets, and in particular the precious metal markets, seem to be unscathed by this financial downturn. This paper investigates therefore the nature of volatility spillovers between precious metal returns over fifteen years (1995-2010 period) with the attention being focused on these markets’ behavior during the Asian and the global financial crises. Daily closing values for precious metals are analyzed. In particular, the variables under study are the US$/Troy ounce for gold, the London Free Market Platinum price in US$/Troy ounce, the London Free Market Palladium price in US$/Troy once, and the Zurich silver price in US$/kg. The main sample is divided into a number of sub periods, prior to, during and after the Asian crisis. The aim of this division is to provide a wide and deep analysis of the behavior of precious metal markets during this financial event and of how these markets have reacted during times of market instability. In addition, this paper also looks at the effects of the global financial crisis from August 2007 to November 2010 using GARCH and EGARCH modeling. The main results show that there is clear evidence of volatility persistence between precious metal returns, a characteristic that is shared with financial market behavior as it has been demonstrated extensively by the existing literature in the area. In terms of volatility spillover effects, the main findings evidence volatility spillovers running in a bidirectional way during the periods; markets are not affected by the crises, with the exception of gold, that tends to generate effects in all other metal markets. However, there is little evidence in the case of the other precious metals generating any kind of influence on the gold market. On the other hand, there is little evidence of spillover effects during the two crisis episodes. Finally, the results from asymmetric spillover effects show that negative news/information have a stronger impact in these markets than positive news, again a characteristic that has been also exhibited by financial markets.     

Valuation of VIX derivatives

We conduct an extensive empirical analysis of VIX derivative valuation models before, during, and after the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Since the restrictive mean-reversion and heteroskedasticity features of existing models yield large distortions during the crisis, we propose generalisations with a time-varying central tendency, jumps, and stochastic volatility, analyse their pricing performance, and implications for term structures of VIX futures and volatility “skews.” We find that a process for the log of the observed VIX combining central tendency and stochastic volatility reliably prices VIX derivatives. We also uncover a significant risk premium that shifts the long-run volatility level.     

Is more finance better? Disentangling intermediation and size effects of financial systems

Financial systems all over the world have grown dramatically over recent decades. But is more finance necessarily better? And what concept of financial system – a focus on its size, including both intermediation and other auxiliary “non-intermediation” activities, or a focus on traditional intermediation activity – is relevant for its impact on real sector outcomes? This paper assesses the relationship between the size of the financial system and intermediation, on the one hand, and GDP per capita growth and growth volatility, on the other hand. Based on a sample of 77 countries for the period 1980–2007, we find that intermediation activities increase growth and reduce volatility in the long run. An expansion of the financial sectors along other dimensions has no long-run effect on real sector outcomes. Over shorter time horizons a large financial sector stimulates growth at the cost of higher volatility in high-income countries. Intermediation activities stabilize the economy in the medium run especially in low-income countries. As this is an initial exploration of the link between financial system indicators and growth and volatility, we focus on OLS regressions, leaving issues of endogeneity and omitted variable biases for future research.     

Is M&A different during a crisis? Evidence from the European banking sector

The financial crisis has affected the landscape of the banking sector around the world. We use a sample of transactions carried out by European acquirers in 2007–2010 to study the acquirer’s stock price market reaction to both announcements and completions of acquisitions. At the aggregate level, we find that there are no significant abnormal returns around the announcement of an acquisition while there are positive abnormal returns at completions. We study the cross-sectional determinants of abnormal returns and find that announcement returns are mainly explained by the acquirer bank characteristics, while completion returns mainly depend on opacity of the target and on the drop in idiosyncratic volatility associated with a reduction of uncertainty.     

Financial globalization and stock market risk

This paper examines stock market volatility measured by either “beta-volatility” or by the standard deviation of stock returns over 1995-2007. In our dynamic panel data framework, after controlling for size, turnover, and real output growth, we find some support to increases in financial integration reducing total stock return volatility for representative emerging markets, with almost no impact for industrial economies. Allowing for feedback effects from stock volatility to stock turnover, we obtain a richer interpretation for the broadening of investor basis hypothesis: more integrated financial markets leads to lower stock volatility, yet these are not so strong as found previously and are not accompanied by more turnover.