Opportunistic earnings management or performance-related effects? Evidence from dividend-paying firms

We propose that much of the variation in standard (accruals and real-activities) earnings management metrics can be explained by firms' performance trajectories. We test our proposition using dividend change to distinguish high from low performance trajectory firms. We find that standard earnings management metrics have a stronger relation with performance trajectories than with unexpected earnings, a presumed target of earnings management. Firms that appear to manage earnings more are likelier to increase their dividends, but standard earnings management metrics do not explain changes in firm value around dividend change announcements. Applying standard earnings management metrics without taking performance trajectories into account can result in mistaking managers' efforts to increase firm value for earnings management.     

Corporate lobbying: Resource-seeking or rent-seeking? Evidence from audit fees

Theory and prior research suggest that corporate lobbying is a primary means that corporations use to influence government policies either for improving firm performance (i.e., strategic decisions) or for rent-seeking activities (i.e., agency costs) but the evidence between lobbying activities and auditor assessments of audit risk remains unclear. Our results show that lobbying firms are associated with higher audit risks and fees, consistent with the idea that lobbying is related to rent-seeking and higher agency costs. In cross-sectional analyses, we find that the positive association between lobbying and audit fees is weaker for firms with strong corporate governance. Further analysis shows that firm financial returns or low earnings quality mediate the relationship between lobbying and audit fees. The results suggest that practitioners, users of financial statements and regulators could benefit by recognizing that lobbying activities could signal managerial opportunistic behavior.     

Short-sale constraints: Reductions in costs of capital or overvaluation? Evidence from Hong Kong

We examine the effects of short-sale constraints in Hong Kong where stocks can be shorted only if they are included on an official short-sale list. Using revisions to the list, we test two hypotheses — 1) that short-sale constraints lead to overvaluation and 2) that they lead to lower costs of capital. We find weak support for the Diamond and Verrecchia (1987) version of the overvaluation hypothesis, but more compelling evidence supporting the Xu (2007) version of the overvaluation hypothesis and the cost of capital hypothesis. We argue that in the context of our tests the Xu overvaluation hypothesis is actually a reformulation of the cost of capital hypothesis and that the bulk of our evidence, therefore, supports the notion that short-sale constraints reduce capital costs.     

Uncertainty or Misvaluation? New Evidence on Determinants of Merger Activity from the Banking Industry

We use data from the past 30 years of takeover activity in the U.S. banking industry to test competing neoclassical and misvaluation merger theories. Test results are consistent with evidence in the literature that merger activity is significantly related to both structural industry change and stock price misvaluation. Our primary contribution is to show that changes in misvaluation reflect a rise in industry‐wide risk taking and that increases in risk originate from changes in industry structure due to deregulation. A measure of bank risk taking subsumes the power of stock price misvaluation to explain subsequent merger activity.     

Predicting macro-financial instability – How relevant is sentiment? Evidence from long short-term memory networks

This paper examines the relevance of sentiment in predicting overall financial system instability using long-run short-term memory networks. Weekly data on the US financial system, consumer sentiment, producer sentiment, and investor sentiment is collected from 21 January 1994 to 27 December 2019, and different models are developed to predict the one-week-ahead levels of financial stress in the US financial system. We find that models using sentiment indices outperform those relying solely on historical financial stress and risk data. This result is robust to comparisons with an alternative deep learning method and out-of-sample predictions. It constitutes an argument in favor of behavioral finance and Minsky’s (Knell, 2015) financial instability hypothesis against the Efficient Market Hypothesis. As it concretely identifies the main indicators for predicting US financial stress one week in advance, the study provides relevant recommendations for policymakers and investors in terms of macroprudential policies and portfolio management.     

Are Dividends Disappearing or Shrinking? Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange

This paper examines the dividend payment decision of publicly owned firms listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) from 1991 through 2006. There is a decline in the percentage of net dividend payers, accompanied by a decline in the aggregate level of net real dividends paid. Contrary to the situation in developed markets, earnings and dividends concentration have declined over the sample period. The first mandatory dividend payment regulation pushed some firms to collect the distributed dividends back through rights issues and this resulted in low net dividend payments. One of the striking findings of this paper reveals that a majority of ISE firms prefer dividend omissions rather than dividend reductions. Once a firm keeps paying dividends, it puts much effort into increasing dividend payments rather than reducing them. Further, dividend payment and reduction decisions are affected by the current earnings of the firm and financial crisis significantly explains both the dividend payment and dividend reduction decisions.     

Are They Hedgers or Speculators? Evidence from South Korea's Political Elections

This study uses a simultaneous equation model based on a three-stage least squares estimation to offer new empirical evidence that investors are hedgers or speculators during South Korea's elections. Major investor groups include individuals, securities companies, and foreigners in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI 200) market. The results show that cash market volatility and futures market activity have lead behaviors with one another. However, the contemporaneous variables of cash market volatility and options market activity have only unidirectional causality. Most investors will trade futures and options contracts for speculating within the entire sample period. During political election periods, investors prefer to trade options contracts for hedging rather than futures contracts.     

Fiduciary or loyalty? Evidence from top management counsel and stock liquidity

We examine whether and how corporate top management counsel (TMC) influences stock liquidity and document a significant positive association. Our results remained robust to a series of sensitivity tests and continue to hold after accounting for potential endogeneity concerns. We identify a reduction in information asymmetry and business risk as the channel through which TMC affects stock liquidity. Further tests reveal that the positive relationship is stronger when the CEO has no legal expertise and in the post-SOX period, where firms are mandated to have in-house counsel. Our paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the dual paradox of TMC's role (gatekeeper v. facilitator) and has policy implications.     

Are US founding families expropriators or stewards? Evidence from quasi-natural experiment

We use board structure changes brought by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX; 2002) and subsequent listing standards as a natural experiment to investigate if founding families are expropriators or stewards of shareholder value. We hypothesize gain in a firm's value post-SOX if founding families are expropriators and a value loss if they are stewards. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find that family firms that did not meet the requirements of SOX-related, board independence provisions before 2002, suffered significant value loss post-SOX. Our results favor the steward role for founding families.     

Fiduciary duty or loyalty? Evidence from co-opted boards and corporate misconduct

We examine the effect of co-opted boards on corporate misconduct and document a significant positive relationship. Utilising a large sample of public U.S. companies from the period 2001 to 2015, we find that a one standard deviation increase in the proportion of co-opted directors on a board leads to a 4.3% rise in corporate misconduct. This outcome is robust to a series of sensitivity tests and continues to hold after accounting for potential endogeneity concerns. Further analyses indicate that co-opted directors propose fewer board agenda items, exhibit lower attendance at board meetings, and receive compensation packages in excess of industry norms, which exacerbate stakeholder-agency conflicts. Cross-sectional analysis demonstrates that the documented relationship is most pronounced among firms with weak external monitoring, greater CEO-board social ties, boards whose members have high career concerns, and where CEO power is low. Additional tests reveal that co-opted directors engage in more environmental- and workplace-related violations than other types of stakeholder violations. Overall, our investigation generates original evidence that the presence of co-opted directors aggravates the incidence of corporate wrongdoing. Our study contributes to the continuing debate on the role of boards of directors and has policy implications for those responsible for devising and monitoring effective systems of corporate governance.     

What can we learn about the market reaction to macroeconomic surprise? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis

We investigate the impact of macroeconomic surprise and uncertainty on G7 financial markets around COVID-19 pandemic using two real-time, real-activity indexes recently constructed by Scotti (2016). We applies the wavelet analysis to detect the response of the stock markets to the macroeconomic surprise and an uncertainty indexes and then we use NARDL model to examine the asymmetric effect of the news surprise and uncertainty on the equity markets. We conduct our empirical analysis with the daily data from January, 2014 to September, 2020. Our findings indicate that G7 stock markets are sensitive to the macroeconomic surprise and uncertainty and the effect is more pronounced at the long term than the short term. Moreover, we show that the COVID-19 crisis supports the relationship between the macroeconomic indexes and the stock prices. The results are useful for investment decision-making for the investors on the G7 stock indices at different investment horizons.     

What determines the profitability of banks? Evidence from Spain

This paper empirically analyses the factors that determine the profitability of Spanish banks for the period of 1999–2009. We conclude that the high bank profitability during these years is associated with a large percentage of loans in total assets, a high proportion of customer deposits, good efficiency and a low doubtful assets ratio. In addition, higher capital ratios also increase the bank’s return, but only when return on assets (ROA) is used as the profitability measure. We find no evidence of either economies or diseconomies of scale or scope in the Spanish banking sector. Finally, our study reveals differences in the performance of commercial and savings banks.     

Is herding spurious or intentional? Evidence from analyst recommendation revisions and sentiment

Using institutional holdings data for 1993–2015, we investigate whether institutional herding is spurious or intentional by analysing the impact on herding of analyst recommendation revisions and sentiment. In addition to examining their effect separately, we consider the impact of their interaction. Utilising the Sias method, we develop competing hypotheses concerning spurious and intentional herding, an issue of direct interest to fund investors, given the principal-agent relationship inherent in fund management. Results strongly suggest herding is spurious. Analysis of the relationship between herding and subsequent returns, and findings from robustness tests add further support.     

Short-term under/overreaction, anticipation or uncertainty avoidance? Evidence from India

We examine the short-term price behaviour of three, size-conditioned Indian stock market indices, in response to informational shocks. A standard mean-adjusted returns model as well as the GJR-GARCH specification point towards underreaction to negative events in the medium and small capitalization indices. Also, the pre-event coefficients are generally negative and statistically significant, regardless of the sign of the shock, thus ruling out information leaks. We uncover a stable abnormal volatility pattern which increases monotonically a few days before the shock before suddenly decreasing in magnitude on the event day and beyond. We suggest uncertainty avoidance as a potential explanation of these features. The results are fairly robust across alternative event selection procedures, time, and size-conditioned shocks.     

Does the signature of a CPA matter? Evidence from Taiwan

This paper employed aquestionnaire survey to investigate the opinions of audit report stakeholders in Taiwan regarding the regulation of signatures in audit reports. The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) proposed these regulations in 2009, and again in 2011 with a slight alteration. Most respondents agree that having the engagement partner sign the audit report could increase the accountability of CPAs. In addition, the participants believed that knowledge of the name of the engagement partner is important for the users of audit reports. Both of these views are consistent with the views voiced by the PCAOB. Most of the respondents also believe that the regulation of signatures would increase the legal responsibility of the engagement partner and minimize the role of firms in the auditing process. Finally, the respondents felt that the engagement partner has a much greater responsibility when their signature is in the audit report than when it is disclosed elsewhere, indirectly supportingthe second proposal of the PCAOB, which, rather than having the engagement partner sign their name on the audit report, simply lists the names of engagement partners elsewhere.     

Who are the vectors of contagion? Evidence from emerging markets

We test whether foreign investors are the vectors of contagion to emerging markets, as various theoretical models imply. We also explore the role of local institutions and individuals during and after contagion days. To do this, we propose a novel measure of contagion and estimate its dynamic relationship with the net purchases of each of the three groups of investors, from 2007 to 2016, in seven emerging markets. We find that foreign investors bring contagion by actively selling and impacting local prices on days of large declines in the US stock market and the days following. Local institutions are also net sellers on the day of contagion, while individuals act as the main liquidity providers, but institutions become net buyers soon after.     

Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders

This paper contributes empirically to our understanding of informed traders. It analyzes traders’ characteristics in a foreign exchange electronic limit order market via anonymous trader identities. We use six indicators of informed trading in a cross-sectional multivariate approach to identify traders with high price impact. More information is conveyed by those traders’ trades which—simultaneously—use medium-sized orders (practice stealth trading), have large trading volume, are located in a financial center, trade early in the trading session, at times of wide spreads and when the order book is thin.     

Which form of hedging matters — Operational or financial? Evidence from the US oil and gas sector

We examine the extent and impact of operational and financial hedging on commodity price risk in US oil and gas companies. We find significant exposure to underlying commodity movements. Using a combination of hand collected and publicly available data we examine the impact of hedging strategies. We find no evidence that operational hedging, defined here as multinationality, is effective. In contrast, we find that financial hedging is significant and impactful. Sub-period analysis shows that the effectiveness of financial hedging diminishes when commodity price volatility is high.     

Managing mutual funds or managing expense ratios? Evidence from the Greek fund industry

This study examines the expense ratio policy of Greek equity funds operating in a small emerging market with an oligopolistic, bank-dominated financial system. Constructing a unique dataset of non-publicly available expense ratios charged by these funds, we examine the impact these expenses have on funds’ performance and flows. The main conclusion is that funds’ performance is negatively related to their expenses, while investors’ flows are not directly affected by expenses. Furthermore, the funds affiliated with one of the three dominant domestic banking groups achieve higher performance and attract higher net flows in comparison to their competitors.     

Why do (or did?) banks securitize their loans? Evidence from Italy

This paper investigates the ex ante determinants of bank loan securitization by using different econometric methods on Italian individual bank data from 2000 to 2006. Our results show that bank loan securitization is a composite decision. Banks that are less capitalized, less profitable, less liquid and burdened with troubled loans are more likely to perform securitization, for a larger amount and earlier.