硬盯住制货币政策策略评析

硬盯住制作为特殊的汇率盯住制策略,具有对汇率的硬盯住和强硬的货币稳定承诺特征.硬盯住制有两种类型,即货币局制和完全美元化.货币局制和完全美元化是货币替代不同程度的体现,货币局制是间接的货币替代制度,完全美元化是直接的货币替代制度.     

我国汇率制度改革刍议

我国当前实行汇率制度改革，改变盯住美元的固定汇率制为以市场供求为基础、参考“一篮子”货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制。那么我国当前为什么要实行这种汇率制？文章结合我国汇率演变的历史以及盯住美元汇率制度的弊端来探讨了当前汇率改革的必要性。     

对我国人民币汇率制度选择的思考

文章在分析盯住汇率制度的特点及其利弊的基础上,认为我国目前实行的盯住美元的汇率制度是当前情况下的最佳选择。     

汇率制度选择理论研究

汇率制度选择是一国经济发展的重要议题,合适的汇率制度会促进一国经济的发展,不合适的汇率制度则可能导致金融危机.在当前我国经济快速发展、人民币升值加速的情况下,汇率制度选择问题的研究显得尤为重要.本文介绍了近年兴起的几种汇率制度选择理论,主要有蒙代尔--弗莱明模型、第一代货币危机模型、第二代货币危机模型和两极汇率制度理论等,并分析了这些理论之间的关系,最后特别指出蒙代尔--弗莱明模型在汇率制度选择理论中占有非常重要的地位.     

改革现行人民币汇率制度之我见

1994年我国人民币汇率并轨,2005年人民币汇率制度进一步改革,由盯住单一美元改为盯住一篮子货币,这一系列的改革在一定程度上推动了我国经济的发展,但仍存在一些问题,本文对此进行深入分析后提出相应的对策。     

人民币汇率制度目标模式选择的思考

汇率制度的目标模式是一种在特定时期、特定条件下最适合于该国的最优的汇率制度。面对当前关于人民币汇率制度的诸多争议,站在总体上支持央行的现行汇率制度的立场,提出人民币汇率制度改革的一揽子规划,即中期和长期目标模式:中期目标模式是爬行盯住一揽子汇率制;长期目标模式是更加灵活的、有管理的浮动汇率制。     

高额外汇储备对我国房地产市场的影响

一、我国外汇储备基本情况分析 1994年，我国进行了外汇体制改革，实现了汇率的并轨，实行结售汇制。在实际运行中我国实行严格的盯住美元汇率制度，直到2005年7月21日这种严格盯住才有所趋缓，人民币走上稳中有升之路。但是这种稳中有升的汇率安排只是相对美元而言，人民币与其他货币并不能自由浮动，且由于美元的不断贬值，导致人民币也追随美元而不断贬值。在这样的汇率体制下，人民币汇率被动确定，且严重低估，结果外贸顺差，资本流入，外汇储备不断增加。     

人民币升值对我们理财的影响

2005年7月21日,中国人民银行公布汇率改革方案。人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元,而是一揽子货币政策,从而形成更富弹性的人民币汇率机制。而且随着人民币的升值,我们的理财观念和理财策略都发生了一系列的变化,本文以此为着入点,探讨了现阶段的理财方式。     

论人民币汇率制度的过渡

近年来，由于国际社会对人民币汇率问题的“炒作”，我国人民币汇率制度在未来的走向日益引人关注。本文通过对蒙代尔——弗莱明等一些相关理论模型的应用分析，认为我国现行单一盯住美元的汇率制度已没有太大的回旋余地，从长期看，人民币汇率将最终重新趋于真正的以市场供求为基础的浮动汇率制．所以，我们的当务之急应该是从整体的、全局的角度做好人民币汇率长期内将趋于浮动的准备．     

现行人民币汇率制度的理论分析——基于“三难选择”的讨论

以"三难选择"理论为基本框架,通过对历史经验的回顾及对不同汇率制度的理论分析,提出了人民币汇率制度的制定不是简单的选择哪一种汇率制度,而应是在"三难选择"下区分不同阶段进行汇率制度选择的战略安排。在迈向开放经济的背景下,我国汇率制度的取向应该是从固定盯住逐步走向独立浮动。     

资本管制有效性与中国汇率制度改革

本文在利率平价框架下考察了近十年中国资本管制的效力。我们采用比较类似金融工具在国内外市场的收益率、检验未抛补利率平价理论偏差的平稳性两种方法进行分析。研究表明,尽管资本管制的效力随时间推移有所下降,但境内外美元利差的持续存在以及未抛补利率平价理论偏差的非平稳性仍然足以证明中国的资本管制基本有效。资本管制的有效性在盯住制框架下确保了汇率稳定和一定的货币政策自主性,并且使未来汇率制度弹性化改革可以渐进地推进。     

Inflation and stabilization in Latvia: 1918–1922

The central European stabilization efforts of the interwar period, based on fiscal cuts coupled with the adoption of a pegged exchange rate and external support are often portrayed as prototypes defining the necessary conditions for successful stabilizations. While prevalent, the orthodox package was not universal in the period. We examine one exception, the Latvian stabilization of 1921–1922. Commencing from a background of multiple circulating currencies, the stabilization program was money-based, implemented without external assistance and followed rather than accompanied by exchange rate stabilization.     

Financial openness, financial frictions and optimal monetary policy

Increasing financial integration challenges the optimality of inward-looking strategies for optimal monetary policy. Those issues are analyzed in an open economy where foreign net lending, and the current account, are determined by a collateral constraint. Durables represent collateral. The current account features persistent imbalances, but can deliver a long run stationary equilibrium. The comparison between floating and managed exchange rate regimes shows that the impossible trinity is reversed: higher financial integration increases the persistence and volatility of the current account and calls for exchange rate stabilization. In this context, the Ramsey plan too prescribes stabilization of the exchange rate, alongside with domestic inflation.     

Managed Floating as a Monetary Policy Strategy

Although there seems to be a broad consensus among economists that purely floating or completely fixed exchange rates (the so-called corner solutions) are the only viable alternatives of exchange rate management, many countries do not behave according to this paradigm and adopt a strategy within the broad spectrum of exchange rate regimes that is limited by the two corner solutions. Many of these intermediate regimes are characterized by significant foreign exchange market interventions and a certain degree of exchange rate flexibility with non-preannounced exchange rate targets. While academic research in this area usually concentrates on some specific aspects of intermediate regimes (such as the effectiveness of interventions or institutional aspects), managed floating has rarely been analyzed as a comprehensive monetary policy strategy. In this paper, we present a monetary policy framework in which central banks simultaneously use the exchange rate and the interest rate as operating targets of monetary policy. We explain the mechanics of foreign exchange market interventions and sterilization and we explain why a central bank has an interest of controlling simultaneously the two operating targets. We derive the monetary policy rules for the two operating targets from a simple open economy macro model in which the uncovered interest parity condition and the monetary conditions index play a central role.     

De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies

This paper provides an empirical investigation on the discrepancies between official and de facto exchange rate regimes in transition economies. We use a probit model to describe the determination of regime discrepancies. We find that “errors” in the selection of official regimes as well as the macroeconomic developments calling for conflicting adjustments in exchange rate regimes are important determinants of regime discrepancies.     

The political economy of exchange rate regime determination: Theory and evidence

This paper studies exchange rate regime choice from a positive perspective by modeling the interplay of monetary and fiscal policy, credibility and financial market microstructure as factors influencing the decision on de facto regime. The model shows how a small open economy reliant on foreign sources of financing is likely to opt for a stable regime. Furthermore, a stable political environment with a high degree of accountability is conducive to choosing a flexible regime. The findings suggest that flexible rather than fixed exchange rate regimes provide more fiscal discipline.     

Fix or flex? Alternative exchange rate regimes in an era of global capital mobility

This paper discusses the pros and cons of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes under perfect capital mobility from a European perspective. Special attention is given to the exchange rate policy problems of Iceland and Norway and to the linkages between their dependence on natural resources and their choice of exchange rate regime. The relevance of the advent of a common currency in Europe for the Western Hemisphere is also discussed.     

On the periphery of the international dollar standard: Canada,Latin America,and East Asia

This paper focuses on how the world dollar standard works in two respects. The first is the dollar as a benign facilitator of international exchange both in private and official transacting. The second is the possibility of dollar encroachment on the domestic domains of weaker currencies. But this encroachment is quite different across more mature industrial economies such as Canada with long-term bond markets in comparison to more extreme encroachment in Latin America and less extreme in East Asia where domestic bond markets barely exist. It examines the risks in alternative exchange rate regimes for emerging markets where the term to maturity of finance is short, with external liabilities all dominated in foreign exchange, largely dollars. Problems faced by central banks in regulating money and exchange rates, and bank regulators in limiting default risks, are jointly considered.     

Exchange rate regimes in the transition economies

D. Mario Nuti illustrates the extraordinary progress made by central and eastern European economies in their trade and exchange regimes. Surprisingly, instant convertibility of exchange rates was established. In spite of diverse exchange rate regimes they have all experienced initial severe undervaluation - the cost of speed and of unrestricted trade - followed by rapid real revaluation and incipient protectionism. Since 1994 an embarras de richesse has appeared: high capital inflows which are either inflationary or costly to sterilise. Lower interest rates are recommended.     

The Value Relevance of Accounting Information during a Financial Crisis: Thailand and the 1997 Decline in the Value of the Baht

This study addresses whether the financial turmoil surrounding the devaluation of the baht affected the value relevance of Thai accounting information. Our results suggest a decline in the value relevance of Thai book values and earnings following the devaluation. Prior to mid 1997 the Bank of Thailand pegged the value of the baht to a basket of currencies of which 80% was weighted to the US dollar. In response to pressure by currency speculators the bank abandoned its peg on July 2 1997 in favor of a managed float. The devaluation was followed by volatile exchange rates. The change in value relevance of accounting information after the devaluation may be attributable to the initial recognition of foreign exchange losses and the subsequent recognition of foreign exchange gains as exchange rates fell and then recovered.