金融危机及其应对政策对我国宏观经济的影响——基于金融CGE模型的模拟分析

本文通过构建中国金融CGE模型,编制中国金融SAM表,模拟了金融危机及其应对政策对中国宏观经济的影响,并对政策效果进行了后验式评价。研究结果表明,大规模投资对增加企业收入、促进GDP增长等效果明显,减税政策能明显改善居民福利,虽然调整利率同样可以促进经济的恢复但效果并不十分明显。当经济政策能够提高居民边际消费倾向时,经济升温的步伐将加快。但应对金融危机的刺激政策存在着引发通货膨胀、不能有效刺激出口等风险,所以需要相关后续配套政策对宏观经济进行进一步调整。     

Analyst Behavior Following IPOs: The "Bubble Period" Evidence

We examine over 7400 analyst recommendations made in the yearafter going public for IPOs from 1999 to 2000. Initiations ofcoverage at the end of the quiet period come almost exclusivelyfrom affiliated analysts, whereas initiations afterward arepredominantly from unaffiliated analysts. Contrary to previousfindings, we find no evidence that the market discounts recommendationsfrom affiliated analysts once we control for recommendationcharacteristics and timing. Moreover, analyst coverage in thefirst year is not affected by underpricing, and after the flurryof initiations at the end of the quiet period, the number ofanalysts covering a firm during the following 11 months is unrelatedto the number of managing underwriters. (JEL G12, G14, G24)     

次贷危机中资产证券化对金融市场流动性的影响

次贷危机是一场金融市场流动性紧缩的危机.在流动性紧缩的过程中,连接多个利益主体的资产证券化负有很大责任.本文采用计量经济理论中的VAR模型对次贷危机中资产证券化对金融市场流动性的影响进行实证分析,发现在次贷危机的演进过程中,资产证券化确实对金融市场的流动性产生了持久的负面冲击效应,并导致了流动性紧缩的传导和扩散.因此,...     

Rationing Can Backfire: The "Day without a Car" in Mexico City

A ban restricting each car from driving on a specified weekdayis found to have increased total driving in Mexico City. Becauseof the ban, cars effectively represent "driving permits," andsome households have bought an additional car and increasedtheir driving. Greater use of old cars, congestion effects,and increased weekend driving may also have contributed to thedisappointing results. The ban has high welfare costs and doesnot deliver the intended benefits of reduced driving—quitethe contrary. The experience provides an interesting lesson in applied welfareeconomics. Theory indicates that this is a costly way of reducingtraffic and pollution. But the finding that the strategy iscounterproductive could be made only with applied quantitativeanalysis.     

当前的金融和经济危机：一个新自由资本主义的系统性危机

本文给出了这样一种情况,即2008年从美国开始的金融和经济危机意味着新自由资本主义系统性危机的肇始。在过去几十年里推动了一系列长期经济扩张的一些新自由资本主义的制度特征,也同样产生了一种长期的趋势,这种趋势已经导致了系统性的危机。本文还考虑了经济重构的几种可能的未来方向。     

The "Glass of Milk" Subsidy Program and Malnutrition in Peru

This study of the Vaso de Leche ("Glass of Milk") feeding programin Peru looks for evidence that this in-kind transfer programaimed at young children furthers nutritional objectives. Thestudy links public expenditure data with household survey datato substantiate the targeting and to model the determinantsof nutritional outcomes. It confirms that the social transferprogram targets poor households and households with low nutritionalstatus. Nevertheless, the study fails to find econometric evidencethat the nutritional objectives are being achieved.     

引入金融创新的IS-LM模型:金融危机求解

美国次级债引起世界性金融危机,并波及实体经济,引发人们对金融创新的质疑。目前我国处在大力发展经济的关键时期,因此我们有必要深入思考金融创新与经济增长的关系以及如何妥当进行金融创新等问题。本文将金融创新因素引入传统IS-LM模型,研究发现金融创新具有双刃剑的效应,当实际利率大于或等于预期利率时,金融创新具有经济增长效应;实际利率小于预期利率时,如果金融创新只是提高了货币投机需求的利率弹性,而没有拓展融资渠道、增加真实投资,金融创新将导致金融危机;而且金融创新会减弱货币政策效应,而提升财政政策效应,因此文章建议金融危机求解应采取扩张的财政政策。     

Comment on "Evaluating Recipes for Development Success": The Policy Usefulness of Institutional and Political Analyses of Development

In "Evaluating Recipes for Development Success" Avinash Dixitcriticizes recent efforts to identify the "fundamental" causesof development and to distill policy recommendations from theseefforts. This comment focuses on the strand of that literaturerelated to institutions and development. Two arguments are important:that the rule of law and the security of property rights areimportant for growth and that they are the product of politicalinstitutions. Professor Dixit argues that identification andother concerns undermine the second argument and inhibit theformulation of policy recommendations. While these concernsare valid, research has begun to disaggregate broad politicalinstitutions (democracy and autocracy) and to look at the detailsof political competition, such as voter information and politiciancredibility, which are both more robust determinants of politicaldecision-making and more susceptible to policy interventions. JEL codes: O43, O17, O20, P30, P48     

ON "HUNGER AND PUBLIC ACTION": A Review Article on the Book by Jean Dreze and Amartya Sen

Recent writings on poverty and hunger agree broadly on objectivesand means but diverge significantly in emphasis. Views differon the importance and function of economic growth and on howmuch weight to give to direct public support. These differencescan matter in policy choices. Hunger and Public Action, by JeanDrèze and Amartya Sen, is an important contribution tothe literature on antihunger policy. This article criticallyexamines the issues raised by the book, its differences withother recent writings, and the implications for both policyand future research on policy.      

金融危机对我国银行经营的影响

美国金融危机对我国银行经营造成了很大的影响,盈利增速减缓,资产质量下滑,甚至有部分资产受损。然而,近几年来,我国银行业在政府的支持下,不断深化改革,增强了应对危机的能力。总体上看,中国银行资产质量仍然较好,流动性充裕,处在比较稳健、健康的状态。     

城镇家庭金融资产选择研究:基于结构方程模型的分析

本文从家庭参与金融市场的动机及影响因素展开研究,在梳理和总结国内外相关研究成果的基础上,选取相应的影响家庭金融资产的度量指标,构建了家庭金融资产投资的决策模型。然后基于专门的问卷调查数据,运用结构方程模型对影响家庭金融资产选择的各个变量之间的逻辑关系和内在机制进行了实证研究,并根据研究结论给出了相应的政策建议。     

The Predictive Power of "Head-and-Shoulders" Price Patterns in the U.S. Stock Market

We use the pattern recognition algorithm of Lo, Mamaysky, andWang (2000) with some modifications to determine whether "head-and-shoulders"(HS) price patterns have predictive power for future stock returns.The modifications include the use of filters based on typicalprice patterns identified by a technical analyst. With datafrom the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 over the period 1990–1999we find little or no support for the profitability of a stand-alonetrading strategy. But we do find strong evidence that the patternhad power to predict excess returns. Risk-adjusted excess returnsto a trading strategy conditioned on "head-and-shoulders" pricepatterns are 5–7% per year. Combining the strategy withthe market portfolio produces a significant increase in excessreturn for a fixed level of risk exposure.     

金融消费者保护：后危机时代金融监管的新主题

金融消费者保护既是金融监管的应有之义和基础价值,更是后危机时代西方国家金融改革与治理的新主题。在国内,与金融消费权益纠纷案件日益增多不匹配的是,现有处理模式包括法律体系、机构体系、途径体系等无法有效适应这一新情况,重构以金融消费者保护为主题的全新金融监管模式势在必行。     

全球金融危机对山西省中小企业融资的影响

由美国房地产市场上的次级抵押贷款危机引起的金融风暴正席卷美国、欧盟和日本等世界主要金融市场.在全球经济开始下滑的背景下,中小企业也面临着外贸出口受阻,国内市场消费低迷,能源、材料,劳动力成本不断上涨,融资困难加剧、融资成本大幅上升等各种问题的困扰.     

国际金融危机对梧州经济金融的冲击及对策建议

本课题调研小组深入调查分析国际金融危机给广西梧州市经济金融带来的冲击,在此基础上研究提出应对措施,旨在推动地方经济尽快走出金融危机的阴影,促进经济金融和谐健康发展.     

后金融危机时期金融工具国际准则的发展及启示

金融工具会计准则是规范金融工具会计处理的一种制度安排。2008年金融危机直接推动金融工具国际准则从IAS 39到IFRS 9的强制性制度变迁。本文从制度经济学视角剖析了金融工具会计准则的起源与发展,尤其是金融危机后的重大变革,探讨了IASB与FASB近期关于金融工具准则的分歧,分析了金融工具国际准则的变革可能引发的问题,以期丰富金融工具会计准则理论,并对我国金融工具会计准则的修订和实施提供参考。     

金融危机视角下金融集团风险监管研究

在本次金融危机过程中,受不同风险文化的影响,欧美金融集团采取的措施不尽相同,最终结局迥异。本文立足于后危机时代全球金融业的发展趋势与背景,结合我国金融业务综合化经营的实际情况和产融结合加快的大趋势,分析金融危机以来欧美金融集团风险控制成败两方面的案例,总结经验教训,并借鉴欧美金融监管改革的实践经验,对我国金融控股公司的风险防控与监管提出相关政策建议。     

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data

We take a fresh look at the aggregate and distributional effects of policies to liberalize international capital flows—financial globalization. Both country‐ and industry‐level results suggest that such policies have led on average to limited output gains while contributing to significant increases in inequality. The country‐level results are based on 228 capital account liberalization episodes spanning 149 advanced and developing economies from 1970 to the present. Difference‐in‐difference estimation using industry‐level data for 23 advanced economies suggests that liberalization episodes reduce the share of labor income, particularly for industries with higher external financial dependence, higher natural propensity to use layoffs to adjust to idiosyncratic shocks, and higher elasticity of substitution between capital and labor.     

金融素养与家庭储蓄率——基于理财规划与借贷约束的解释

金融科技的发展使得人们参与金融市场的门槛与成本迅速降低,金融产品也不断丰富,金融市场参与者的异质性增加,金融素养对家庭金融决策的影响越来越明显。本文研究发现:(1)家庭在安排储蓄与消费时,金融素养有显著影响,金融素养与家庭储蓄率呈倒U型关系。(2)理财规划和借贷约束是影响家庭储蓄率上升的两个渠道。(3)金融素养由低逐渐升高时,家庭的理财规划意识增强,通过提高储蓄率来保障资金充足。当金融素养增加到一定程度,理财规划意识优化资产配置的作用增强,抑制消费的作用减弱,同时借贷约束缓解会帮助家庭增加消费。本文的发现有助于厘清家庭储蓄率差异的成因,对提升居民福利,增强金融教育政策的针对性,有积极意义。