DIVIDED WE STAND,UNITED WE FALL: THE HUME‐NORTH‐JONES MECHANISM FOR THE RISE OF EUROPE*

The “great divergence” between Europe and the rest of the world occurred relatively recently. What enabled Europe, with all its laggards, to dominate the previously successful Eastern economies? This article emphasizes one important mechanism, highlighting the contrast between the European states system and Eastern empires. Political competition for a mobile tax base in a states system forces rulers to provide relatively more secure property rights. By effectively limiting the “exit” options of the ruled, an empire rewards its ruler with a captive tax base that can be subjected to higher levels of expropriation. As a result, the states system encourages faster capital accumulation and growth.     

Is the fourth industrial revolution relevant to sub-Sahara Africa?

While the 4IR has the potential to impact on all industries and all nations, regardless of their location or state of development, many of the discussions of the 4IR and its impact are focused on advanced economies. What are the prospects and constraints of the 4IR to emerging economies in sub-Sahara Africa? To what extent is the 4IR relevant to sub-Sahara Africa where there is a large informal economy, limited public infrastructure, where technical skills levels are low, and advanced technology can be found in only a few sectors that are dominated by foreign multinational companies and staffed by expatriate workers? What is the relevance of policy development towards the 4IR in the region given its young population profile, and emerging skill shortages in key sectors? The paper draws on secondary literature to highlight the challenges and to identify the policy developments that have been developed in the region.     

Comparing the economic views of American and South Korean teenagers

Drawing directly upon responses to an economics questionnaire, this study offers a comparative perspective on how 125 American and 106 South Korean teenagers understand, view, and interact with their national economies. The study primarily focuses on responses to three questions. Should teenagers work for their parents without pay? What possessions do teenagers consider of most value? What do the terms "rich" and "poor" mean to teenagers? Analysis of the responses revealed that teenagers in both countries have a complex understanding of economic issues and hold a wide range of opinions on the concept of economic wealth and personal economic responsibility. Significantly, the study suggests that popular perceptions depicting teenagers as singularly materialistic may be misguided. The study also explores the extent to which cultural traits impact how teenagers view and interact with their economies.     

The exchange rate and optimal monetary policy rules in open and developing economies: Some simple analytics

Using a simple, tractable model, this paper revisits and expands upon issues relating to optimal monetary policy rules (MPRs) in open economies. The optimality of the rule is explored through various specifications of a central bank loss function as it is the loss function that offers insight into central bank preferences. Many of the issues on this topic have centred on the role of the exchange rate: Is it optimal for the policy instrument to react to the exchange rate? What is the role of the exchange rate in a domestic inflation targeting vs CPI inflation targeting? Does a fear of floating have any bearing on the way optimal MPRs are constructed? While this paper is not empirical, the analysis is relevant for central banks in open and developing economies that face a choice between allowing exchange rates to float (and adopting an inflation targeting regime) and engaging in some degree of exchange rate fixity.     

Reform,Growth, and Inequality in China*

This paper provides a survey of the literature on inequality in China – level, change, causes, and consequences. It attempts to answer six main questions. How much has inequality risen? What is its relation to poverty alleviation? What has happened to wealth inequality? What are the main dimensions of rising income inequality? The dimensions examined are: the rural–urban divide; urban labor market reform; regional divergence; rural–urban migration; and entrepreneurship, rent‐seeking, and corruption. Was it inevitable that inequality should rise so much? Does it matter that inequality has risen? Income distribution in China is bound up with both economic reform and economic growth. This paper concludes by considering the countervailing forces that will determine the path of inequality in future years.     

Future information systems for road transport: A Delphi panel-derived scenario

Modern information and microelectronic technology can be used to improve road traffic. The aim of this study is to create scenarios on how new information systems for improved road traffic can evolve. What are the driving forces? Who can act? Who can benefit? What are the social impacts?Through the use of a Delphi panel of professionals, researchers, and informed generalists, we have gathered impulses for the scenarios on how information technology, communication means, and control systems can reshape future road traffic. The issue studied is how this “Road Transport Informatics” (RTI) will evolve.     

The determinants of FDI location choice in China: a discrete-choice analysis

This study addresses two questions: What are the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) location choice in China? What are the factors that determine investors’ choice between ‘Economic zones’ in China on one hand, and ‘other cities’ of China on the other hand? This study shows that FDI location choice is sensitive both on the endowment conditions in different regions/cities/economic zones in China as well as on the country of origin of the FDI. Based on a data set of 1218 observations, the results of the binary logit regressions indicate that the protection of intellectual rights, agglomeration economies, investments in education and gross regional product affect the location choice of FDI in China. This choices, however, varies depending on the origin of the FDI. Policy makers can use these findings to channel FDI to targeted regions/ cities.     

International capital flows,liquidity risk,and monetary policy

In recent years, there has been a large amount of lending coming from the public sector of many developing countries. At the same time, the financial sectors in many advanced countries have issued a large share of portfolio debt to other countries. What are the implications of these events for the global financial system and overall economic activity? Do they have an impact on the transmission channels of monetary policy across countries at different stages of economic development? We investigate these important issues using a micro-founded model of money and banking so that the effects of monetary policy across countries can be meaningfully studied. Notably, the increase in capital outflows to the advanced economy renders monetary policy in developing countries to be less effective, while the effects of monetary policy in advanced economies are more pronounced. Yet, our results indicate that it can indeed be optimal for lower income countries to lend to the advanced world. Importantly, we find that the optimal amount of lending to advanced countries critically depends on the degree of liquidity risk — if it is sufficiently high, then public sector lending to advanced economies is not warranted. Consequently, our results indicate that governments in developing countries should carefully consider how much capital they send abroad to foreign countries.     

Directed Technical Change

For many problems in macroeconomics, development economics, labour economics, and international trade, whether technical change is biased towards particular factors is of central importance. This paper develops a simple framework to analyse the forces that shape these biases. There are two major forces affecting equilibrium bias: the price effect and the market size effect. While the former encourages innovations directed at scarce factors, the latter leads to technical change favouring abundant factors. The elasticity of substitution between different factors regulates how powerful these effects are, determining how technical change and factor prices respond to changes in relative supplies. If the elasticity of substitution is sufficiently large, the long run relative demand for a factor can slope up.
I apply this framework to develop possible explanations to the following questions: why technical change over the past 60 years was skill biased, and why the skill bias may have accelerated over the past 25 years? Why new technologies introduced during the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries were unskill biased? What is the effect of biased technical change on the income gap between rich and poor countries? Does international trade affect the skill bias of technical change? What are the implications of wage push for technical change? Why is technical change generally labour augmenting rather than capital augmenting?     

International Financial Contagion: Why are Eastern Europe's banks not failing when everybody else's are?

While the Asian financial crisis spread to Russia and Brazil, the transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEECs) are largely unaffected by international financial contagion. This is the more surprising considering that most economies have experienced severe banking sector problems in the past, that large bad loan ratios are still prevalent, that banking regulation and supervision are only slowly improving, and that stabilizing policies have slowly been eliminated. What insulated the CEECs from the recent wave of financial instability? To consider the counterfactual, we first provide a framework that links banking crises to financial deregulation. We then focus on a number of macro- and microeconomic factors, using data compiled from the IMF's International Financial Statistics, from the World Bank's World Debt Tables, and from the BIS's Consolidated International Banking Statistics. We first compare past experiences in CEECs with those in other emerging economies as a cross-sectional reference point. We then consider whether the situation in CEECs has changed since the last banking sector problems, in order to establish a reference point across time. Our results indicate that the factors leading up to past banking crises are generally different in CEECs from those in other emerging economies. However, in recent years, the characteristics of CEECs have become more similar to those of other emerging economies.     

Who cares about the day after tomorrow? Pension issues when households are myopic or time inconsistent

Pension economics has traditionally guided pension policy with the help of formal models based on individuals who think in a life‐cycle context with perfect foresight, full information, and in a time‐consistent manner. Associated macro models were mostly based on a single country. This paper sheds light on several aspects of pension economics when these assumptions do not hold using—to our knowledge—the first multi‐country model of procrastinating households. Our focus is on the interaction between the share of procrastinators in a country, the speed and extent of population aging, and the size of an existing PAYG‐DB pension system. Starting from the insight that procrastination reduces the volume of savings, we focus on three questions that are particularly relevant for the quickly aging Asian economies: What are the consequences for the balance between pay‐as‐you‐go and fully funded pension systems? Where will retirement savings be invested in a globally linked world with very different pension systems and demographics? How large are global spillover effects of pension reforms in one region for the other regions in the world?     

Feudalism as an economic system

This review essay discusses recent books on feudalism by Perry Anderson, John Critchley, Rodney Hilton, and Witold Kula. Its purpose is to provide an overview to a number of approaches toward the economic aspects of feudalism and to indicate promising directions in this field for comparative economists. To this end, four major questions are discussed: What is feudalism? How and why did the feudal economic system emerge? What are the short-term economic mechanisms within a feudal economy? And how and why did the feudal economic system decline?     

Foreign trade and innovation in domestic labor relations

For the most part, neoclassical trade theory has restricted its concerns to the effect that trade has on the production and distribution of commodities. It implicitly assumes that international trade leaves unchanged the institutional structure of domestic economies.The empirical evidence presented here supports the claim that international trade induces innovation in the institutions regulating the capital-labor relationship. Existing trade theories, neoclassical or otherwise, that assume away such changes give only a partial answer to one of the central questions a theory of trade must answer: What are the effects of trade, and are these effects beneficial?     

Socio-technical challenges in the development of digital multimedia broadcasting: A survey of Korean mobile television development

This paper examines the prospectus of Digital Multimedia Broadcasting from the technical, economic and regulatory issues. This paper attempts to gain a better understanding of how DMB will evolve and stabilize in next generation network environments. Two research questions guide this study: (1) How does DMB trigger a change in policy, market and industry structure? (2) What are the driving forces of the rapid DMB development in Korea? As these questions involve socio-technical issues, this study uses a socio-technical perspective to investigate the complex relations between the social and technical aspects of DMB by highlighting the co-evolving nature, diversity, and interface between different driving forces and policy. The finding is that Korean DMB is the outcome of a proactive strategy of a telecom carrier and the Korean government's industrial policy to support such strategy. Among the push-oriented trajectory, however, non-technical issues such as users, market and regulation are left behind, which reveals the disjunction of the DMB development in terms of the socio-technical system perspective. The development of DMB sheds light on the growing challenges in the dynamics of industry, regulation, and technology.     

Measuring Change of Capitalist Varieties: Reflections on Method,Illustrations from the BRICs

How to indicate institutional diversity and gradual change in capitalist political economies? What is the appropriate typological method, how could a suitable typology look? In the Weberian tradition, this article pleads for a method that rigorously distinguishes ideal types from empirical cases. Ideal types (like liberal capitalism) idealise reality by emphasising certain aspects, cases (like Brazilian capitalism) are hybrids more or less approximating the types. Contrasting static classifications that do not allow for gradual change, the latter has to be understood as the movement of cases in the field between the types. Using the state–economy and capital–labour relationships as criteria the article proposes a typology consisting of liberal, statist, corporatist, meso-communitarian and patrimonial types. Liberalism, statism and particularly patrimonialism are relevant for emerging economies. In the second half, the article illustrates its methodological recommendation by indicatively mapping institutional change from 1998 to 2008 in political economies that recently gained importance: the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China), Turkey and a few Eastern European ones. It turns out that most of them liberalised but that this change was rather modest in the BRICs, while it was more significant in Eastern Europe. Yet statism and patrimonialism appear still to be strong.     

A tale of industrial stagnation from Africa

Many African economies have experienced rather dismal industrial development since the 1980s. The consensus is that African firms lack competitiveness in a world with increasing trade openness. What determines competitiveness? A well‐known explanation is that resource endowments in Africa favour land not labour, which results in high wages, especially in comparison with ‘labour abundant’ Asian economies. This paper examines the validity of this view on the basis of the case of Sudan. We demonstrate that the lack of competitiveness of manufacturing industries is not caused by high wages. Assuming a direct relationship between labour productivity and international competitiveness, we argue that acute capacity underutilisation, caused by supply‐side constraints, lowers manufacturing productivity, which in turn negatively influences competitiveness.     

Is Post-Communist Health Spending Unusual?

What factors determine a country's spending on health? And what factors determine the share of spending financed by the public sector? Taking these factors into account, is post-communist health spending unusual? For the OECD economies, we find that per capita health spending is strongly related to per capita income, with an elasticity of about 1.5. The elasticity for developing economies is close to one. Spending is also positively related to the elderly dependency rate, but the relationship is weaker than a static comparison of spending by the elderly and non-elderly would suggest. Even though health spending as a share of GDP in the post-communist countries of eastern and central Europe is below the OECD average, there is evidence of above normal health spending in most countries when we control for income and demographics. For Hungary, the ‘excess’ spending reached over three percentage points of GDP in 1994. For the OECD sample, four development indicators account for half the variation in the public sector share of total health spending. Political variables help explain the remainder. If the post-communist countries converge to the market economy pattern, the share of public financing will fall, yet still remain well above half.     

Distinguishing characteristics of ahuman economics

What are the requirements for an economics that is compatible with, and affirmative of, a meaninful image of human nature? Where does conventional economic theory show its most glaring deficiencies in this respect? What are the core human values that need to inform economic thought capable of guiding us in the design and construction of a more humane economic system? Why is the bulk of contemporary heterodox economic thinking antagonistic to the project of a human-centered economics? These are the basic questions addressed and explored in this article.     

Factor Endowments and Industrial Structure

What determines industrial structure? Do sector‐specific characteristics such as unionization, regulation, and trade policy dominate production patterns? One is inclined to believe so based on countless industry‐level studies and the many political battles that are continually fought over trade and industrial policy. In contrast, standard neoclassical trade theory suggests that industrial structure is primarily driven by relative factor supplies. This paper demonstrates that aggregate factor endowments explain much of the structure of production—independent of industry idiosyncrasies—and quantifies the extent to which shifts in industrial structure in a cross‐section of countries are driven by the broad forces of factor accumulation. These results are reached through an empirical application of the factor proportions model of production.