Pseudoplanning

The tactics used by sponsors to manage a planning process is an important cause of plan failure. When the process is manipulated or its management ignored, pseudoplanning results. Several case studies were analyzed to identify types of pseudoplanning. They are called, “What's the problem,” “omnipotent planners,” “transported ideas,” “pooled ignorance,” “do it my way,” “change as given,” “surrender,” “takeover,” “sciencism,” and “empty phases.” Each is described to point out how they led to poor planning practice.     

Currency fluctuations and the French–U.S. trade balance: evidence from 118 industries

The impact of currency depreciations on trade has inspired a large body of research. Recent studies have examined industry-level trade, often using cointegration analysis, finding that a significant fraction of industries respond positively to devaluations. Oftentimes, adjustment lags result in a “J curve” effect, where devaluations hurt the trade balance temporarily. This study examines the specific case of trade between the United States and France, but finds that these flows are less sensitive than has been shown for other country pairs. Only 30 of 118 industries see increased trade balances after a dollar depreciation, and virtually none follow any type of a “J curve.” Certain industry sectors are more sensitive than others, however. Examining the SITC classifications of those 30 industries, we find that many of them are clustered in the SITC 700 (Machinery and Transport Equipment) and 800 (Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles) categories. In particular, clothing and footwear, as well as electrical equipment, are particularly affected.     

以行业自律价来干预降价竞销并不明智

降价竞销是近年总供求关系发生逆转后的正常现象,不应被贬斥为“不正当竞争行为”。靠实施行业自律价来人为阻止降价促销并不明智,也没有经济法规依据,是价格改革的倒退,导致保护落后、阻碍行业技术进步等适得其反的后果。靠行业垄断定价来保证利税收入会得不偿失。降价压库是扩大内需的重要途径。随着扩张性财政货币政策的落实到位,普遍削价热潮将逐渐退温,行业自律价更成多余     

制度距离、相邻效应与双边贸易--基于“一带一路”国家空间面板模型的实证分析

制度在双边贸易中具有举足轻重的作用。文章首次将相邻效应引入传统的制度与贸易关系的分析框架,运用空间面板模型深入考察了制度距离、相邻效应对中国与“一带一路”国家双边贸易的影响。结果表明,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间在文化、法律、宏观经济制度以及微观经济制度方面的差异显著抑制了双边进出口贸易的发展,并且这种抑制作用在长期更为显著。进一步引入相邻效应的分析表明,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间的双边贸易受到中国与沿线国家邻国之间贸易的制约,即相邻效应表现为竞争关系,并且无论是针对进口贸易还是出口贸易而言,中国与沿线国家之间的制度距离均强化了相邻效应的“竞争”作用,但上述作用在不同地区具有显著差异。因此,在推进“一带一路”战略时,中国需要考虑制定相关的配套政策来平衡中国与“一带一路”国家,特别是与这些两两相邻国家之间的双边贸易利益,以促进中国与各国双边贸易关系的良性发展。     

Globalization,labor standards,and women's rights: dilemmas of collective (in)action in an interdependent world

This paper challenges the idea that a “social clause” to enforce global labor standards through international trade agreements serves the interests of women export workers in poor countries. Drawing on fieldwork in Bangladesh and empirical studies, the author argues that exploitative as these jobs appear to Western reformers, for many women workers in the South they represent genuine opportunities. Clearly, these women would wish to better their working conditions; yet having no social safety net, and knowing that jobs in the informal economy, their only alternative, offer far worse prospects, women cannot fight for better conditions. Moreover, global efforts to enforce labor standards through trade sanctions may lead to declining employment or to the transfer of jobs to the informal economy. Lacking measures that also address the conditions of workers in this informal economy, demands for “the social clause” will reinforce, and may exacerbate, social inequalities in the labor market.     

Import-push or export-pull? An industry-level analysis of the impact of trade on firm exit

Does the selection effect of trade work solely through competition from imports, or does the export market further contribute to firm selection? This paper provides a re-interpretation of the different mechanisms in terms of selection on profitability—rather than productivity—and derives novel predictions regarding the export market and the role of product differentiation. Empirical results for a sample of Danish manufacturing industries confirm the import-“push” hypothesis as well as the export-“pull” hypothesis, but also reveal differences across industries. The selection effect of trade is mainly driven by the “import-push” if product differentiation is high, whereas it is driven by the “export-pull” if goods are homogeneous.     

International trade and “Catching up with the Joneses”: Are the consumption patterns convergent?

We use a dynamic international trade model to analyse the implications of international trade for agents’ preferences and economic growth. This model is based on the home market effect with external habit formation (“catching up with the Joneses”) and “learning by doing” in production. We demonstrate the following: the historical composition of consumption in countries determines industrialization after trade; the preferences of agents converge after trade, independent of the economic results; and the welfare effects of trade may be positive or negative depending on trading partner characteristics. In some scenarios, autarky is strictly preferred to trade. Thus, international trade does not necessarily imply greater welfare, as is the typical result in a static context under CES preferences.     

ON THE INFORMATIONAL CONTENT OF WAGE OFFERS*

This article investigates signaling and screening roles of wage offers in a single‐play matching model with two‐sided unobservable characteristics. It generates the following predictions as matching equilibrium outcomes: (i) “good” jobs offer premia if “high‐quality” worker population is large; (ii) “bad” jobs pay compensating differentials if the proportion of “good” jobs to “low‐quality” workers is large; (iii) all firms may offer a pooling wage in markets dominated by “high‐quality” workers and firms; or (iv) Gresham's Law prevails: “good” types withdraw if “bad” types dominate the population. The screening/signaling motive thus has the potential of explaining a variety of wage patterns.     

Trade balance dynamics and exchange rates: In search of the J‐curve using a structural gravity approach

This paper uses a structural gravity approach, specifying currency movements as trade cost component to derive an empirical trade balance model, which incorporates multilateral resistance terms and accounts for the cross‐country variation in the exchange rate pass‐through into import and export prices. The model is estimated using quarterly bilateral trade flows between 47 countries over the period 2010Q1 to 2017Q2, disaggregated into 97 commodity groups. Our results support the existence of an “aggregate” J‐curve, pooled over commodity groups; at the same time they point to considerable heterogeneity in the trade balance dynamics across industries below the surface of aggregate data.     

“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络结构特征及其对技术进步的影响——基于社会网络分析法的研究*

本文采用社会网络分析法探讨了2008—2018年“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络结构特征,测算沿线国家贸易网络中心位置对技术进步的影响,并对不同收入国家进行异质性分析。研究发现：“一带一路”沿线国家整体贸易结构比较松散,意大利、土耳其、韩国、俄罗斯、中国和新加坡等国家（地区）位于网络核心,共有23个国家（地区）发挥“中介”或“桥梁”作用,影响着其余沿线国家之间的贸易联系;超过四成的沿线国家（地区）与非贸易伙伴国具有较强的间接贸易关系。贸易网络中心位置的提升能显著促进母国技术进步,间接贸易影响母国技术进步的边际效应大于直接贸易;中高等收入水平国家直接和间接贸易地位和贸易强度的提升均显著促进了技术进步,低等收入国家贸易强度的提升也能促进母国的技术进步。     

Effects of “Framing” on measures of risk tolerance: Financial planners are not immune

Prospect theory suggests that describing the objective risk inherent in a situation in terms of how much can be “gained” will lead to risk avoidance, whereas describing the same exact situation in terms of the potential “losses” to be suffered leads to risk-seeking behavior. This effect has been called “framing.” The present study investigated whether this bias occured among a professional group that deals with financial risk as part of their work. The results show that financial planners are not immune to the framing bias.     

The Trade Effects of Indian Antidumping Actions

Antidumping (AD) has emerged as the most widespread policy impediment to trade in the last 25 years. One of the surprise proliferators of AD in the lesser developed world has been India, which has filed an outstanding number of 285 cases between 1992 and 2002. In this paper, I study empirically the effect of Indian AD cases on trade flows from other countries. I also look at the effect of AD cases on trade diversion from countries subject to or “named” in AD investigations to non‐subject or “non‐named” countries and conclude that Indian AD policy is effective. I use a unique dataset combining AD data from the World Trade Organization with trade data from Comtrade. The empirical model is estimated via the Arellano–Bond procedure.     

Equilibrium Tariff Schedules In Commercial Policy Games Under Uncertainty

Abstract A partial two country equilibrium model is built in which two different exogenous random shocks may occur. the governments simultaneously choose tariff functions relating their specific tariff to the level of an observable variable (volume of trade or international price). In the case of a “volume of trade shock” the Nash equilibria of this game are more protectionist the larger the possible trade swings and autarky is always an equilibrium outcome. In the case of a “terms of trade shock”, constant tariffs, at their Nash equilibrium in specific tariff levels are the only sensible equilibrium outcome.     

Internet Technology and the Extensive Margin of Trade: Evidence from eBay in Emerging Economies

Online platforms such as eBay offer technologies that make it easier for firms to export. This paper dissects a new firm‐level dataset that covers sales made through eBay by sellers based in 21 emerging economies to provide a new lens through which to look at the effect of trade costs on the extensive margin of trade. Comparing eBay sellers with “offline” firm‐level data from the World Bank's Exporter Dynamics Database allows us to test whether the observed trade patterns on eBay fit with the trade‐liberalization predictions of heterogeneous‐firm models. We find that eBay firms export to more destinations, suggesting low destination‐specific fixed costs on eBay. We then show that the distribution of export destinations across eBay sellers is well approximated by a balls‐and‐bins model of frictionless trade, suggesting eBay indeed lowers fixed export costs. Finally, we compare the gravity of eBay with that of offline trade and find geographic distance, languages, and trade agreements to matter less for online trade.     

China Bashing: Does Trade Drive the “Bad” News about China in the USA?

A monthly index of “bad” news about China as reported in the USA from January 1990 to December 2008 is developed in this paper. “Bad” is defined as news touching on the following issues: human rights, Tibet, child labor, democracy, and repression. Using this bad news index, this paper documents a peculiar finding: 3–4 months after a trade deficit shock to the US–China bilateral trade balance, the frequency of bad news published about China by US media outlets rises sharply, then dies off slowly. Statistical analysis reveals that the likelihood that this finding is just a coincidence is relatively small—about 1%. In addition, this paper finds a robust association between the annual number of Congressional hearings on China and the US–China bilateral trade deficit. These results suggest that “China bashing” may be endogenous to fluctuations in the US–China bilateral trade balance.     

Trade cost reduction and foreign direct investment

While the “proximity-concentration” theory suggests a positive relationship between trade cost and foreign direct investment (FDI), there is ample evidence showing a negative relationship between them. We show that the possibility of exporting back to the home country from a host country, which is often referred as “home-country export platform FDI”, may generate a negative relationship between trade cost and FDI. Market demand and product market competition may play important roles in this respect.     

“GATT‐think” with Asymmetric Countries*

We argue that a trade agreement which conforms to GATT’s reciprocity rule benefits the (stronger) less trade‐dependent country at the expense of the (weaker) more trade‐dependent country. Reciprocity is so unfavorable to the weaker country that it may be worse off under reciprocity than under the Nash‐ bargaining solution, a “power‐based” approach to trade negotiations that reflects power asymmetries among trading partners. Our results question Bagwell and Staiger’s (1999 , 2000 ) view of reciprocity as a rule that “serves to mitigate the influence of power asymmetries on negotiated outcomes.”     

Recent developments in EC USSR commercial and economic relations

Conclusion Trade with the Soviet Union represents only a small part of total Community trade (3.5 % of EC imports and 2.7 % of EC exports in 1990). EC imports from the Soviet Union increased moderately between 1989 and 1990 as well as between the first six months of 1990 and the corresponding period of 1991, whilst EC exports decreased sharply as a result of hard currency shortage in the Soviet Union.The CMEA and Soviet disintegration processes will lead to a substantial reorientation of trade flows. This development has already begun with large increases of trade between the EC and the Central and Eastern European countries.International assistance to the USSR mainly consists of export credits. Community assistance involves a large proportion of grants and technical assistance. The cost of assistance measures envisaged so far remains limited for Western countries.The economic effects of assistance would be enhanced if effective coordination was implemented among the providers. Adequate mechanisms such as triangular operations or the untying of assistance would be required in order to avoid crowding out traditional suppliers from Soviet markets.     

The income inequality curve in the last 100 years: What happened to the Inverted-U?

This paper examines the shape of the curve that represents the long-run relationship between income inequality and economic growth, using data from four developed countries (USA, UK, France, and Germany) over the period 1915 – 2014. The analysis is carried using a panel data technique (fixed, random, and interactive effects) that takes into account common shocks. We find that in the long-term, this curve has the shape of an “N-shape” and that the Kuznets curve does not explain this path. We also present many factors that may affect the path of inequality up or down, the most important is political, economic and demographic, specifically technological change, globalization, social transfers, economic policies, trade unions, taxation, education, war, and epidemics.     

Trade Negotiations under Alternative Bargaining Structure

We build a bargaining model, in which a country (leader) decides whether or not to form a free trade agreement with other nations (followers), either through a sequential or a multilateral bargaining procedure. Unlike Aghion et al. ( 2007 , Journal of International Economics, 73, 1–30), in our specification of multilateral bargaining, the leader can collude with all those follower countries who agree to its offer. This has important implications for the choice of sequential and multilateral bargaining by the leader in presence of coalition externalities. Moreover, this bargaining procedure ensures that “stumbling block” equilibrium will never occur.