The long-term effects of bank recapitalization: Evidence from Indonesia

Do government-sponsored bank recapitalization programs spur lending and reduce risk? This paper assesses the impact of Indonesia’s bank recapitalization program on lending and bank risk following the Asian financial crisis of 1997. Using unique bank-level data, difference-in-differences estimates suggest that recapitalization increased lending (and more so for larger banks), but also boosted bank risk in the long term. Results remain robust to considerations of (1) bank-level differences in political connections, business group affiliation, ownership type, and (2) changes in macroeconomic conditions, capital requirements, accounting regulations, and public credit registry availability.     

Common (stock) sense about risk-shifting and bank bailouts

If a bank is facing insolvency, it will be tempted to reject good loans and accept bad loans so as to shift risk onto its creditors. We analyze the effectiveness of buying up toxic mortgages in troubled banks, buying preferred stock, and buying common stock. If bailing out banks deemed “too big to fail” involves buying assets at above fair market values, then these banks are encouraged ex ante to gamble on bad assets. Buying up common (preferred) stock is always the most (least) ex ante- and ex post-efficient type of capital infusion, regardless of whether the bank volunteers for the recapitalization.     

Monitoring and Controlling Bank Risk: Does Risky Debt Help?

We examine whether mandating banks to issue subordinated debt would enhance market monitoring and control risk taking. To evaluate whether subordinated debt enhances risk monitoring, we extract the credit‐spread curve for each banking firm in our sample and examine whether changes in credit spreads reflect changes in bank risk variables, after controlling for changes in market and liquidity variables. We do not find strong and consistent evidence that they do. To evaluate whether subordinated debt controls risk taking, we examine whether the first issue of subordinated debt changes the risk‐taking behavior of a bank. We find that it does not.     

银行信贷中会计信息的使用情况调查与分析

贷款人对企业财务信息的关注不只是会计信息决策有用性的理论问题, 更重要的是银行如何加强对贷款风险有效控制的一个非常实际的问题。本项工作通过问卷调查的方式, 了解银行授信过程中会计信息的应用情况及银行对非财务信息的使用情况。我们发现, 银行对长短期借款、主营业务收入、资产负债率、流动比率和速动比率等财务信息高度重视, 对有助于进一步判别企业潜在风险的报表附注信息也比较重视。     

Shifting from the incurred to the expected credit loss model and stock price crash risk

Using a difference-in-differences (DID) design, this study examines the effect of shifting from the incurred credit loss model (ICL model) to the expected credit loss model (ECL model) on banks’ future stock price crash risk. We find that switching to the ECL model decreases the stock price crash risk of commercial banks. Inspired by Onali et al. (2021), we proceed with cross-sectional tests from the perspectives of opportunistic incentives, information environments, and compliance costs and find that the effect is more pronounced for (i) banks with less opportunistic incentives, proxied by state-owned property rights and managerial ownership; (ii) banks with opaque internal and external information environments, proxied by weak internal control, weak board governance, low analyst coverage, and short auditor tenure; and (iii) banks with lower implementation costs, proxied by less day-one impact and higher levels of accounting conservatism. Channel analyses show that banks increase their asset impairment provisions and the timeliness of loan loss recognition, and there is an increase in the value relevance of earnings and bank efficiency after the adoption of the ECL model. Overall, our evidence suggests that the flexibility of principle-based accounting standards influences banks’ stock price crash risk and provides implications that could be helpful to regulators and standard setters.     

Credit Ratings and Bank Affiliation to Financial Holding Companies: Effects of Government Ownership and Financial Crisis

This study compares credit ratings between FHC affiliated banks and independent banks using Taiwan bank and FHC data. The results show banks that join Insurance- or Security-FHCs obtain better ratings than those that join Bank-FHCs. Second, banks that join FHCs with higher activity diversification can obtain better credit ratings. Third, joining government-owned FHCs enhances bank credit ratings and mitigates bank default risk compared to joining non-government-owned FHCs. Fourth, prior to the financial crisis, banks joining FHCs can obtain better credit ratings and reduce the cost of debt. However, during the financial crisis, rating agencies stopped regarding banks joining privately owned bank-based FHCs as risk diversification and assigning better credit ratings on this basis.     

Bank underwriting of debt securities: modern evidence

This article examines debt securities underwritten by Section20 subsidiaries of bank holding companies relative to thoseunderwritten by investment houses. Consistent with a net certificationeffect for banks, bank underwriting of lower credit rated firmsto whom the bank lends results in relatively higher prices (loweryields). We find no evidence of conflicts of interest even whenan issue is used to repay bank debt. Further, banks bring arelatively larger proportion of small issues to the market.Contrary to the contention that universal banking stunts availabilityof finance to small firms, bank underwritings appear to benefitsmall firms.     

Governance and bank characteristics in the credit and sovereign debt crises – the impact of CEO power

The global financial sector recently suffered from two interrelated crises: the credit crisis and the sovereign debt crisis. A common question is whether the recent experience with the credit crisis has helped in dealing with the sovereign debt crisis. We study more specifically whether banks with powerful CEOs perform better or worse than other banks, and if there is any difference in this relationship between the two crises. Using unique hand-collected data for 378 large global banks, we find that CEO power has a significant positive relation to bank profitability and asset quality, but also to insolvency risk, during the sovereign debt crisis. Thus, strong CEOs do not appear to be detrimental to bank performance. Our results also support the idea that deposit insurance may have contributed to the credit crisis.     

The Effect of Credit Risk on Bank and Bank Holding Company Bond Yields: Evidence from the Post-FDICIA Period

In this article we examine whether the federal safety net is viewed by the market as being extended beyond de jure deposits to other bank debt and even the debt of bank holding companies (BHCs). We extend previous research by focusing on the post‐FDICIA period and by examining the risk‐return relation of bonds issued directly by banks, not BHCs. Our results provide evidence that both bank and BHC bonds are priced by the secondary market in relation to their underlying credit risk, particularly for less capitalized issuers, suggesting that proposals requiring banks to issue subordinated debt may enhance market monitoring and discipline and be useful in supplementing regulatory discipline.     

The real effects of bank taxation: Evidence for corporate financing and investment

This paper examines how bank taxation affects the financing decisions and investment activities of corporates. Exploiting exogenous tax variation at the bank level, we show that taxing banks' gross profits leads to higher bank leverage, and results in lower risk and credit supply. The contraction in credit supply has implications for corporate debt financing and investment activity. Corporates more exposed to banks subject to gross profit tax exhibit lower leverage and rely less on bank debt. Corporates partly offset lower bank financing by switching to bond financing. The cost of bond financing increases with corporate exposure to the tax. A greater exposure also impacts negatively on corporate investment activity. Overall, our results highlight the importance of bank taxation for corporate financing and investment decisions.     

Some evidence on the uniqueness of bank loans

This paper presents evidence that banks provide some special service with their lending activity that is not available from other lenders. I find evidence that bank borrowers, not CD holders, bear the cost of reserve requirements on CDs. In addition, I find a positive stock price response to the announcement of new bank credit agreements that is larger than the stock price response associated with announcements of private placements or public straight debt offerings. Finally, I find significantly negative returns for announcements of private placements and straight debt issues used to repay bank loans.     

Across-the-Curve Credit Spread Indices

We design a novel across-the-curve credit spread index, AXI, a measure of the recent cost of wholesale unsecured debt funding for publicly listed US bank holding companies and commercial banks. AXI, a benchmark for bank lending and risk management, is the weighted average of credit spreads for unsecured debt instruments with maturities ranging from overnight to five years, with weights that reflect both transaction and issuance volumes. We provide illustrative output of the bond-based component of AXI. By widening coverage to include all corporate debt issuers, we also build a financial conditions index (FXI).     

The impact of FDICIA on bank returns and risk: Evidence from the capital markets

This study examines the impact of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act (FDICIA) of 1991 on bank stock returns and risk. We find that FDICIA had a generally positive effect on bank stock returns and resulted in a significant reduction in bank risk. The extent of the risk reduction varies based on the capitalization, size, and credit risk of the institutions with poorly capitalized, large, and high credit risk banks experiencing the greatest risk reduction. The results obtained using two separate control groups also bolster the conclusion that FDICIA’s passage resulted in a significant decline in bank risk.     

Resaleable debt and systemic risk

Many debt claims, such as bonds, are resaleable; others, such as repos, are not. There was a fivefold increase in repo borrowing before the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Why? Did banks’ dependence on non-resaleable debt precipitate the crisis? In this paper, we develop a model of bank lending with credit frictions. The key feature of the model is that debt claims are heterogenous in their resaleability. We find that decreasing credit market frictions leads to an increase in borrowing via non-resaleable debt. Such borrowing has a dark side: It causes credit chains to form, because, if a bank makes a loan via non-resaleable debt and needs liquidity, it cannot sell the loan but must borrow via a new contract. These credit chains are a source of systemic risk, as one bank’s default harms not only its creditors but also its creditors’ creditors. Overall, our model suggests that reducing credit market frictions may have an adverse effect on the financial system and even lead to the failures of financial institutions.     

The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions during Crises

We assess the importance of supply‐side credit market frictions by studying the impact of bank recapitalization on firm growth in 50 countries during the recent crisis. Our identification strategy exploits the crisis as a shock to credit supply and combines an exogenous measure of firms’ dependence on external financing with policy interventions aimed at restoring bank capital. We find that the growth of financially dependent firms is disproportionately positively affected by bank recapitalization. This effect is quantitatively important and robust to controlling for other policies. These results provide new evidence of the influence of credit market frictions on economic activity.     

Sovereign Credit Risk,Banks' Government Support,and Bank Stock Returns around the World

We explore the joint effect of expected government support to banks and changes in sovereign credit ratings on bank stock returns using data for banks in 37 countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that sovereign credit rating downgrades have a large negative effect on bank stock returns for those banks that are expected to receive stronger support from their governments. This result is stronger for banks in advanced economies where governments are better positioned to provide that support. Our results suggest that stock market investors perceive sovereigns and domestic banks as markedly interconnected, partly through government guarantees.     

Banks and sovereign risk: A granular view

We investigate the determinants of sovereign bond holdings of German banks and the implications of such holdings for bank risk. We use granular information on all German banks and all sovereign debt exposures in the years 2005–2013. As regards the determinants of sovereign bond holdings of banks, we find that these are larger for weakly capitalized banks, banks that are active on capital markets, and for large banks. Yet, only around two thirds of all German banks hold sovereign bonds. Macroeconomic fundamentals were significant drivers of sovereign bond holdings only after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. With the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis, German banks reallocated their portfolios toward sovereigns with lower debt ratios and bonds with lower yields. With regard to the implications for bank risk, we find that low-risk government bonds decreased the risk of German banks, especially for savings and cooperative banks. Holdings of high-risk government bonds, in turn, increased the risk of commercial banks during the sovereign debt crisis.     

Bank Equity Investments: Reducing Agency Costs or Buying Undervalued Firms? The Information Effects

Abstract:   This paper analyses the relevance of two different reasons for banks to acquire firms' stock: the increase of agency costs in the lending relationship (the agency costs hypothesis), and participation in the expected profits of undervalued firms (the information asymmetry hypothesis). Results indicate not only that banks make equity investments for both reasons but also that the market exploits their lending decisions to learn which of the two motivations was in play. Bank equity investments concurrent with reductions in bank debt are consistent with the agency costs hypothesis, whereas bank equity investments concurrent with increases in bank debt are consistent with the information asymmetry hypothesis.     

The transformation of banking: Tying loan interest rates to borrowers' CDS spreads

We investigate how the introduction of market-based pricing, the practice of tying loan interest rates to credit default swaps, has affected bank financing. We find that market-based pricing is associated with lower interest rates, both at origination and during the life of the loan. Our results also indicate that banks simplify the covenant structure of market-based pricing loans, suggesting that the decline in the cost of bank debt is explained, at least in part, by a reduction in monitoring costs. Market-based pricing, therefore, besides reducing the cost of bank debt, may also have adverse consequences resulting from the decline in bank monitoring.     

Bank Loan Availability and Trade Credit Demand

This paper investigates the effects of bank loan availability on the trade credit and credit card demand of small firms, using firm‐level data from the 1995 Credit, Banks, and Small Business Survey, conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. We find that firms increase their demand for trade credit and credit card debt when facing credit constraints imposed by banks. These results provide evidence of a pecking order of debt financing, where firms increase their reliance on potentially expensive sources of funds when bank loans are not available.