Financial Liberalization as a Process of Flawed Institutional Change

I argue that the financial liberalization of the last decades, which resulted in a worldwide crisis, relied on an institutional change that ill-shaped actors’ behavior so as to let them enter into unsustainable speculative activities at the expense of macro-stability. To support such an assertion, I draw upon a specific Veblen-Minsky approach to a credit-money economy and its endogenous fragilities. I also maintain that, when financial markets are liberalized and private-interestsrelated self-regulation replaces public macro-prudential supervision, the financial system undergoes institutional deadlock and the ensuing confusion is transformed into a market gridlock. Markets then become unable to recover without public rescue operations of banks. The subsequent negative economic and social consequences are beyond the limits of any acceptable liberal ideology and scientific understanding. Therefore, systemic stability calls for a tighter macro-regulatory framework to remove the domination of speculative finance over economic decisions and activities.     

金融发展、资本账户开放与金融不稳定——来自中国的证据

文章建立一个由金融发展程度、资本账户开放与金融不稳定指标组成的向量自回归(VAR)模型,利用中国1982~2005年的年度数据对这些变量的长期协整关系和短期的调整动力学进行相关的时间序列分析。模型的估计结果显示,对于中国来说,金融发展程度、资本账户开放和金融不稳定之间存在着长期的协整关系,但三者之间的影响程度和方向各不相同。所有结果均显示,无论从短期和长期看,金融发展程度对一国的金融稳定具有显著影响,对资本账户开放的进程也具有重要的影响。     

Foreign Portfolio Equity Investments, Financial Liberalization, and Economic Development

Reform of local capital markets and relaxation of capital controls to attract foreign portfolio investments (FPIs) has become an integral part of development strategy. The proximity of market openings and large, sudden shifts in international capital flows gave credence to the notion that the liberalization was the primary culprit in precipitating the recent Asian crisis. Hence, this paper reassesses the benefits and costs of FPIs from the perspective of the recipients. Specifically, it discusses the various FPI contributions and presents empirical evidence regarding the relationship between FPIs and market development, degree of capital market integration, cost of capital, cross-market correlation and market volatility. It is clear that the evidence on benefits of FPIs is strong, whereas the policy concerns regarding resource mobilization, market comovements, contagion, and volatility are largely unwarranted. The authors make some policy suggestions regarding preconditions for capital market openings, market regulation, and liberalization sequencing.     

Financial and Capital Account Liberalization,Financial Development and Economic Development: A Review of Some Recent Contributions

Abstract

This article presents a review of some recent contributions on the relation between global finance and economic development in emerging economies. It first, stresses the growing consensus among economists on the financial instability that financial and capital account liberalization can possibly cause in emerging economies. It then outlines and compares two alternative strategies to tame such instability. The comparison is between the “good-institutions need-to-come-first” approach put forward by some mainstream economists, and the request for a deeper reform of the existing monetary system advocated by heterodox economists.     

中国资本账户开放及金融稳定

本文针对中国资本账户开放及金融现状进行分析.结论提示,目前,中国资本账户的开放步伐会渐进加速;中国的金融发展程度在逐渐提高的大背景下,这几年会出现一定程度的回调;中国金融体系中存在着大量的不稳定因素,从2002年开始,金融稳定状况开始出现一定程度的恶化,但目前发生系统性金融危机的可能性还较小.     

发展中国家金融发展的制度分析

制度是经济增长的源泉之一,是金融发展的动力.当前,包括中国在内的众多发展中国家金融发展水平落后于发达国家的根源在于发展中国家的制度存在缺陷.本文分析了发展中国家金融发展中所存在的各种制度缺陷,指出发展中国家未来的金融改革方向是加强制度建设,提高制度质量.具体措施主要有:健全法治,保护产权,不断改革和完善政治及行政体制,大力发展教育,加强文化建设,不断积累社会资本等.     

International Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth

This paper pulls together existing theory and evidence to assess whether international financial liberalization, by improving the functioning of domestic financial markets and banks, accelerates economic growth. The analysis suggests that the answer is "yes." First, liberalizing restrictions on international portfolio flows tends to enhance stock market liquidity. n turn, enhanced stock market liquidity accelerates economic growth primarily by boosting productivity growth. Second, allowing greater foreign bank presence tends to enhance the efficiency of the domestic banking system. In turn, better-developed banks spur economic growth primarily by accelerating productivity growth. Thus, international financial integration can promote economic development by encouraging improvements in the domestic financial system.     

Institutional Determinants of Financial Development in MENA countries

Developed and well regulated financial markets are usually seen as a precondition for an efficient allocation of resources and can foster long term economic growth. This paper explores the institutional determinants for financial development in the countries of the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Institutional conditions are from the International Country Risk Guide. Panel‐econometric techniques are applied to assess the development in the banking sector and the stock market. As a main finding, institutional conditions are important in both financial segments, even after controlling for standard macroeconomic determinants and fixed effects. For the banking sector, corruption seems to be most decisive. For the stock market, the impact of corruption and law and order appear to be relevant. While per capita income and inflation do not seem to play a vital role, openness to foreign trade is quite important for all areas of financial development. Hence, overall, faster real economic integration is of key policy priority to improve financial development as a condition for higher GDP growth. Better law and enforcement practices and anti‐corruption policies are strategies to accompany this process.     

金融自由化的利弊

金融压抑的兴起与民粹主义、国家主义和国家于上主义相联的。在金融压无抑的情况下，许多国家的经济状况进一步恶化。于是，随着金融业管制的放松，更为广泛的国内经济自由化和对外开放得以实现。但利率自由化经常伴随着危机的爆发或者引发危机。然而，对于任何一个希望完全分建设者经济增长利益的国家来说，建立一个实质性的金融自由化体系是惟一可行的出路。     

资本账户开放与系统性金融危机

本研究以全球范围内具有代表性的55个国家的跨国数据为基础,通过实证分析系统考察了资本账户开放和系统性金融危机之间的相关关系.实证结果表明,在资本账户开放和系统性金融危机的联系机制方面,重要的是开放方式的选择,而不是开放程度的高低:长期中资本账户开放程度的提高不会诱发金融危机,但激进式的资本账户开放方式会显著增加金融危机的发生概率.     

资本账户开放下的金融风险分析

资本账户开放使资本在国与国之间自由流动,为国际投机资本的流入和流出打开了方便之门,也给发展中国家带来了金融风险。资本账户开放程度越高,金融风险也越大。然而,资本账户所带来的不断增大的金融风险与一国金融制度的不完善,会导致金融危机的爆发。中国的资本账户开放进程中,应加强制度建设以满足中国资本账户开放的长期需要,短期内可以放松对境外投资的管制,减轻资本净流入对人民币汇率和货币供应的压力,化解金融风险。     

International Financial Liberalization, Corruption, and Economic Growth

This paper examines the effects of capital account liberalization on the long-run growth of a developing economy. A general-equilibrium, endogenous growth model is constructed in which corruption forms an integral part of the governance system of the country. By undermining the profitability of innovations, corruption lowers the rate of return to capital and reduces the rate of technological change. The impact of international financial liberalization on long-run growth in this model can be either positive or negative. A drop in growth is obtained when the level of corruption is high enough to cause domestic rates of return to capital before liberalization to drop below those in the rest of the world. In this case, liberalization generates capital outflows, which act as a constraining force on innovation, reducing the rate of technological change and lowering output growth. On the other hand, if the level of corruption is sufficiently low, the capital account liberalization will serve as a boost to the country's technical change and growth.     

金融抑制、金融自由化和我国金融体制改革的对策

随着经济金融全球化的发展，全球金融市场正在形成，这就迫切要求我国金融体制走出传统的政府干预行为，依靠市场机制的作用提高金融业的效率。本文从金融抑制的危害、盲目进行金融自由化的危害出发，论述我国现阶段金融体制改革的对策———渐进的自由化过程。     

金融自由化及其相关理论综述

针对发展中国家金融体系出现扭曲、被削弱、萎缩,以及经济发展受到严重制约等现象,理论界提出了金融自由化理论.其主要包括:麦金农和肖的金融深化理论、麦金农和肖的金融深化理论的扩展、反对与完善M-S的理论、有关金融脆弱性的现代理论研究、金融危机理论与模型、金融自由化排序理论等.这些理论从内因和外因、宏观和微观多角度地对金融自由化进行了研究.但对于实践来说,理解金融自由化的关键就是:为什么频发的金融危机主要出现在进行金融自由化改革的发展中国家和转型经济国家.而从整个金融自由化发展的进程中多角度地来理解金融自由化,而不是单纯地用任何单一的方法来研究这一复杂的课题,应当是金融自由化理论的发展方向.     

Financial Liberalization and Inflationary Dynamics: An Open Economy Analysis

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of financial liberalization on inflation. We develop an open economy monetary endogenous growth general equilibrium model, with financial intermediaries subjected to obligatory ‘high’ reserve ratio, serving as the source of financial repression. When calibrated to four Southern European semi-industrialized countries, namely Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, which typically had high reserve requirements, the model indicates a positive inflation–financial repression relationship irrespective of the specification of preferences. But the strength of the relationship obtained from the model is found to be much smaller in size than the corresponding empirical estimates.     

An Institutional Perspective to Finance and Development as an Alternative to Financial Liberalisation

This paper argues that financial liberalisation as practiced recently worldwide engenders widespread financial crises precisely because of the weak foundations of its theoretical framework and poor empirical performance. Financial liberalisation is critically evaluated on both theoretical and empirical grounds, which suggests that an alternative is vitally necessary. Based on institutional theory,a new approach is proposed the focus of which is on ways to affect financial and banking transformation that is more consistent with economic development. We demonstrate how this theoretical approach can be applied in the real world, and indeed how the theoretical propositions we put forward in this contribution, very different from those of financial liberalisation, produce a more developmentally oriented set of policies for the countries that are prepared to pursue them.     

Does Financial Liberalization Lower Problem Loans in Banks?

The paper explores whether financial liberalization promotes improved credit risk management in Indian banking in the form of fewer problem loans. Using annual data on state-owned banks for the period 1996–2005, the paper finds that, after controlling for a myriad of factors, financial liberalization is influential in lowering banks' problem loans. Robustness tests reinforce these findings .     

关于金融危机时期金融自由化的反思

美国金融危机在全世界范围引发了对金融领域发展尤其是20世纪下半叶以来的金融自由化的重新思考。在后危机时期,对金融自由化的反思仍显重要。采用研究金融自由化影响的标准化模型,加入主权债务风险等因素进行修正,进而获得启示,并对我国金融领域发展提出建议。     

金融脆弱性、不完全信息、制度变迁与金融风险

本文通过将金融脆弱性、不完全信息以及制度变迁与金融风险的关系纳入到一个统一的逻辑思维框架体系内,揭示了金融风险理论的创始与发展基本上是沿着一条从"宏观假说"转向寻求"微观基础"、从"静态"转向"动态"的演变路径来进行的.在阐释四者之间内在的逻辑机理的同时,还指出制度金融风险理论与主流金融风险理论必将融和,从而表明转轨经济中的金融风险问题必然成为金融风险理论研究的未来发展方向,后者将在解释前者问题的过程中获得创新与发展的新机遇.     

相对落后性与金融制度选择

相对落后性和替代性金融制度安排是亚历山大·格申克龙后发优势理论的重要内容之一.本文详细评述了已有研究文献,重新阐述了后发国家工业化进程中相对落后性、金融资源约束和替代性金融制度选择之间的关系,并以日本主银行体制和韩国的政府-银行-企业集团网络为例,分析了后发国家相对落后性和金融制度选择的必然性,全面阐述了经济全球化条件下中国替代性金融制度的选择空间和金融发展战略.