Equilibrium Welfare and Government Policy with Quasi-geometric Discounting

We consider a representative-agent equilibrium model where the consumer has quasi-geometric discounting and cannot commit to future actions. We restrict attention to a parametric class for preferences and technology and solve for time-consistent competitive equilibria globally and explicitly. We then characterize the welfare properties of competitive equilibria and compare them to that of a planning problem. The planner is a consumer representative who, without commitment but in a time-consistent way, maximizes his or her present-value utility subject to resource constraints. The competitive equilibrium results in strictly higher welfare than the planning problem whenever the discounting is not geometric. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E21, E61, E91.     

Ordering the extraction of renewable resources: The case of multiple aquifers

Optimal sequencing of resource extraction is typically studied for nonrenewable resources. We provide conditions for optimal use of multiple sources of a renewable resource and characterize the resulting extraction sequence, resource scarcity values, and (single) efficiency price path for two groundwater aquifers and an abundant alternative resource. Even with one demand, the optimal sequence depends on the differential opportunity costs of the two renewables. A numerical simulation for the South O‘ahu aquifer system, which also allows for different distribution costs, illustrates the case of using the “leakier” aquifer first and then switching to simultaneous use of both resources. The welfare gain from specialization relative to independent management is $4.7 billion.     

Growth and Welfare Effects of Monetary Expansion in an Overlapping-generations Economy

This paper studies the relation between money supply and the long-run economic growth in the context of an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations. We present detailed analyses of growth and welfare effects of monetary expansion under alternative money supply rules. It is shown that, although monetary expansion has a growth-enhancing effect in the long run, in general it is not a Pareto-improving policy. We also pay much attention to the presence of multiple equilbria in endogenous money supply regimes.
JEL Classification Numbers: E51, E62, O42.     

Endogenous property rights regimes, common-pool resources and trade

A model is developed where opening to trade affects a dynamic common-pool resource stock and welfare through a community's voting decision to institute a property rights regime regulating the stock. The model finds that resource stock levels can decline even when a Markov perfect equilibrium path for labor and property rights regimes are chosen to maximize welfare. Thus, opening to trade can be welfare maximizing even when resource stock declines. Experimental results show that under certain conditions, subjects briefly follow a Markov perfect equilibrium path for property rights regime choice but labor allocations are myopically chosen indicating that some resource dynamics may be considered by subjects.     

Dynamics of the North-South welfare gap and global sustainability

The vast heterogeneity among nations in terms of economic and demographic characteristics is evident, despite being overlooked in some global studies. In this heterogeneity, it is possible to identify some distinct aggregate classes differing at some very fundamental level: developing (South) nations and developed (North) nations may have very different, asymmetric problems, goals and structures. This study investigates these two distinct groups of socio-economic systems, as they interact in a context of global sustainability. We identify population, economic growth, welfare gap, energy supply and pollution as key issues and analyze them using a systems perspective. A dynamic feedback model, which discriminates the two groups of nations, is constructed to study the dynamics of variables related to the above key issues. The model is tested using extensive data between the years 1980-2005. According to the reference behavior covering the period 1980-2050, it is not viable to close the welfare gap between North and South, given the current prevailing non-renewable-resource-based growth system. A non-renewable-resource-based system adopted by the economic system of growing South would take the global system even closer to its limits. It is observed that indicators like reserve-to-demand ratio fail to provide reliable signals for a timely transition to alternative resources, and a very serious economic recession due to resource scarcity is likely to develop in the next couple of decades. By coupling the demographic and economic dynamics, it is shown that an economic slowdown due to a resource scarcity may have a dramatic widening effect on the already existing welfare gap. Scenario and policy experiments verify the widely accepted importance of stabilizing the population growth in South, transition to alternative energy resources, and investment support to the South in this transition simultaneously in order to reduce the welfare gap between the two blocks. It is observed that enthusiastic targets for an energy transition may have a serious negative impact on the welfare level experienced in South, whereas an energy transition in South supported by North seems to have the most desirable outcome regarding the welfare gap.     

Asset Securitization and Welfare Compensation for House Demolition on New-Type Urbanization in China

In this paper we design a compensation mechanism for the relocated households in the process of New-Type Urbanization in China. Based on the theories of dynamic rent spatial separation, bid-rent and non-renewable resource exploitation, we give a theretical look at how the current compensation mechanism shapes the welfare of relocated households. Firstly, land rent growth has a spatial difference and the growth rate of the marginal location rent is much higher than that of the mature site. Secondly, there is a demolition championship contest under the sole static money compensation, which can easily lead to land urbanization faster than population urbanization. Thirdly, in the long run the welfare loss of the household is mainly due to the absence of a dynamic compensation mechanism. Furthermore, we design a dynamic compensation mechanism based on the establishment of an asset securitization capital pool, which could be an alternative scheme in the process of New-Type Urbanization.     

Policy instruments for evolution of bounded rationality: Application to climate-energy problems

We demonstrate how an evolutionary agent-based model can be used to evaluate climate policies that take the heterogeneity of strategies of individual agents into account. An essential feature of the model is that the fitness of an economic strategy is determined by the relative welfare of the associated agent as compared to its immediate neighbors in a social network. This enables the study of policies that affect relative positions of individuals. We formulate two innovative climate policies, namely a prize, altering directly relative welfare, and advertisement, which influences the social network of interactions. The policies are illustrated using a simple model of global warming where a resource with a negative environmental impact—fossil energy—can be replaced by an environmentally neutral yet less cost-effective alternative, namely renewable energy. It is shown that the general approach enlarges the scope of economic policy analysis.     

International Joint Venture And Host-Country Policies

In the presence of international joint ventures, effects of policies like foreign equity cap, trade protection and domestic resource requirement restriction towards equity sharing and welfare are analysed. Foreign equity cap reduces host country's welfare. Trade protection lowers equity share for the local firm. It has a first-order source of welfare gain as the internal efficiency of the firm improves. Also, there is a first-order loss resulting from a leakage effect, since a part of the surplus goes to a foreign firm. A marginal domestic resource requirement restriction enhances the joint surplus of the venture and social welfare.     

Natural resources, capital accumulation and the resource curse

Early concern by economists for the effect of natural capital on economic growth gave way to complacency and neglect during the nineteenth century. Evidence has emerged, however, that since the 1960s the economic performance of low-income countries has been inversely related to their natural resource wealth. This relationship is not a deterministic one so policy counts. SEEA can help improve the policy and performance of resource-abundant low-income countries by reinforcing the rationale for the sound management of natural resources and also by providing an index of policy sustainability in the form of the net saving rate. This policy index, along with other measures such as a capital fund for sterilizing the rent, initiatives to increase the transparency of rent flows and the rigorous evaluation of alternative uses of additional public sector revenue can improve the efficiency by which natural resource rent is transformed into alternative forms of capital to sustain rising social welfare. Chad and Mauritania provide case studies to illustrate how SEEA and net saving can be used to diagnose policy failure and improve economic performance.     

Resource abundance, growth and welfare: A Schumpeterian perspective

This paper takes a new look at the long-run implications of resource abundance. It develops a Schumpeterian model of endogenous growth that incorporates an upstream resource-intensive sector and yields an analytical solution for the transition path. It then derives conditions under which, as the economy's endowment of a natural resource rises, (i) growth accelerates and welfare rises, (ii) growth decelerates but welfare rises nevertheless, and (iii) growth decelerates and welfare falls. Which of these scenarios prevails depends on the response of the natural resource price to an increase in the resource endowment. The price response determines the change in income earned by the owners of the resource (the households) and thereby the change in their expenditure on manufacturing goods. Since manufacturing is the economy's innovative sector, this income-to-expenditure effect links resource abundance to the size of the market for manufacturing goods and drives how re-source abundance affects incentives to undertake innovative activity.     

Open-access renewable resources and pollution: Trade and policy implications in a two-country model

We examine the interaction between the relative inter-industry pollution externality and resource stock externality of harvesting in deciding trade patterns and welfare gains from trade in a two-country model (less-developed countries) with renewable resources in the absence of resource management. This paper focuses on the impacts of trade policies on resource conservation and welfare outcomes in two countries with different environmental management regimes. Differences in pollution management standards between both countries determine the direction of trade flow and gains from trade in a diversified production case. The country with a lower pollution intensity parameter, an exporter of resource goods, certainly experiences welfare loss in the post-trade steady-state and may also suffer a decline in utility throughout the transition path. However, a country with higher pollution intensity and importers of resource goods tend to gain from trade. Under national open-access resources, given that pollution is regulated up to a certain point in both countries, this study finds that implementing better restrictions on only one externality factor is not optimal from a post-trade welfare perspective. Lastly, from the point of view of policy suggestion, this paper offers an optimal trade policy that the economic and environmental effects of enforcing import tax on resource goods are likely to be Pareto-improving consequences compared to the implications of using an export tax.     

Transboundary Marine Resources and Trading Neighbours

The importance of space in analyzing issues pertaining to renewable resources can hardly be overstated. Many such resources are mobile and spatially heterogeneous with respect to bio-economic variables, with important implications for both domestic management regimes and for international externalities and policy interactions. This paper uses a simple general-equilibrium framework to show that acknowledging the inter-jurisdictional mobility of a resource such as fish has the potential to alter or qualify some of the conservation and welfare results obtained in the canonical models. The previous literature on trade and renewable resources has focused on cases where national resource stocks are independent. Brander and Taylor (Can J Econ 30(3):526?C552, 1997a; Resour Energy Econ 19(4):267?C297, 1997b; J Int Econ, 1998a; Am Econ Rev, 1998b) find that trade leads to resource stock depletion for an open-access resource-exporting country, while the non-resource exporter is necessarily diversified. In contrast, we find that the country with a comparative advantage in the resource good may gain from a conservation standpoint, while its partner can specialize in the manufactured good and may incur conservation and even welfare losses from trade.     

Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security

Without policy reforms, the aging of the U.S. population is likely to increase the burden of the currently unfunded Social Security and Medicare systems. In this paper we build an applied general equilibrium model and incorporate the population projections made by the Social Security Administration (SSA) to evaluate the macroeconomic and welfare implications of alternative fiscal responses to the retirement of the baby-boomers. Our calculations suggest that it will be costly to maintain the benefits at the levels now promised because the increases in distortionary taxes required to finance those benefits will reduce private saving and labor supply. We also find that the “accounting calculations” made by the SSA underestimate the required fiscal adjustments. Finally, our results confirm that policies with similar long-run characteristics have very different transitional implications for the distribution of welfare across generations. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D52, D58, E21, E62.     

Wealth Accounting,Exhaustible Resources and Social Welfare

The empirical literature on natural resource accounting uses methods which implicitly or explicitly entail measuring changes in total resource asset value when an exhaustible resource is depleted. In contrast, the growth theoretic literature on saving, social welfare and sustainable development is built upon a central finding, that the change in real wealth (as measured by net or ‘genuine’ saving) is proportional to the change in social welfare. We show that the change in total wealth exceeds the change in real wealth in optimal and non-optimal models of resource-extracting economies. This suggests that the change in social welfare is over-estimated when the change in total resource asset value is used as the measure of depletion. A simple empirical exercise, using World Bank data on ‘adjusted net saving’, reinforces the results from theory.     

How relevant are nominal contracting schemes for monetary policy?

Due to the scarcity of pertinent evidence, there is currently no general agreement on how to introduce nominal rigidities into monetary macroeconomic models. We examine the role of alternative assumptions about the wage and price setting mechanisms for the assessment of the welfare costs of nominal rigidities and the performance of alternative monetary policy rules in an otherwise standard New Keynesian general equilibrium model. We find that the choice of a particular price and wage setting scheme matters quantitatively for the welfare costs of nominal rigidities. However, the ranking of the welfare costs associated with alternative wage and price setting schemes is robust to changes in the monetary policy rule, and the ranking of the welfare costs associated with alternative monetary policy rules is robust to changes in the wage and price setting scheme. The difference between sticky nominal contracts and sticky information matters more than the difference in the age distribution of prices wages and information implied by alternative price and wage setting schemes.     

Renewable Resources,Pollution and Trade

Detrimental spillovers from industrial activity onto resource‐based productive sectors are very common, yet their effects remain understudied. While international trade often creates conditions for the over‐exploitation of open‐access renewable resources, it also provides opportunities for separating different productive sectors spatially. The existing literature suggests that a diversified exporter of the renewable resource good tends to lose from trade in both welfare and conservation terms as a result of over‐depletion, while the exporter of the non‐resource good gains. However, the resource stock externality of harvesting and the inter‐industry pollution externality often coexist in reality. In a small open economy framework, this paper shows that acknowledging their interaction changes the nature of the autarkic equilibrium and enriches the set of resource conservation and welfare outcomes from trade. Depending on the relative damage inflicted by the two industries on the environment, which in turn are functions of the pollution intensity and bioeconomic parameters, it is possible that the inter‐sectoral pollution externality persists and specialization in manufacturing is not optimal from a welfare perspective.     

What to Value and How? Ecological Indicator Choices in Stated Preference Valuation

The ecological literature accepts that many policy outcomes cannot be observed directly and must be characterized using indicators. Multiple indicators can often be used to communicate similar ecological outcomes. Previous studies using alternative indicators in stated preference surveys suggest that welfare estimates may be indicator-dependent, casting doubt on whether welfare estimates are sufficiently reliable for cost benefit analysis. We suggest that the reason for such indicator dependence may be that indicators used in these prior studies represented different outcomes valued by respondents. This possibility underscores the need for greater attention to selection of indicators and their properties within stated preference survey design. This paper develops a model introducing the concept of outcome equivalent indicators, defined as indicators that provide alternative representations of identical underlying outcomes. To assess empirically whether welfare estimates are indeed robust to indicator choice when alternative indicators are expected to be outcome equivalent, we analyze data from a choice experiment estimating willingness to pay for migratory fish restoration in Rhode Island, USA. Results demonstrate that welfare estimates are robust to the use of alternative ecological indicators within stated preference scenarios.     

Vertical Foreign Direct Investment versus Outsourcing: A Welfare Comparison from the Perspective of a Host Country

In the offshoring literature, there is a huge disconnect between the alternative modes of organizing offshore production and their relative welfare impact on a host country. We bridge this gap by comparing the welfare of a host country from vertical foreign direct investment (VFDI) vis‐à‐vis international outsourcing. Our model finds that the ability to maximize welfare in the alternative modes of organizing offshore production is contingent on the absorptive capacity of the host country. If a host country's absorptive capacity is above a critical threshold, outsourcing is more welfare enhancing vis‐à‐vis VFDI; while even with an absorptive capacity lower than this critical threshold, outsourcing being welfare improving over VFDI cannot be ruled out.     

和谐社会的经济学分析

和谐社会构建过程中的公平与效率、选择与激励、资源配置的社会价值总量最大化与社会福利最大化的平衡与协调等问题体现着广大人民群众的根本利益,因此,从经济学的角度上来讲,构建和谐社会就要在实现资源优化配置基础上的社会价值生产总量最大化的同时,实现社会整体福利的最大化。     

Who Wants an Independent Central Bank? Monetary Policy‐making and Politics

The costs and benefits of cooperative monetary and fiscal policy are analysed in the framework of a partisan business-cycles model. It is shown that political parties with different ideologies prefer to choose different arrangements for macroeconomic policy-making. More specifically, right-wing parties favour independent central banks more than left-wing parties. An independent central bank is also the generally preferred option from a social welfare point of view. In addition, the form of policy-making arrangements between the fiscal and monetary authorities is shown to influence the extent of partisan cycles.
JEL classification : E 32; E 58; E 63; C 72