Testing for cointegration and dynamic specification

Zusammenfassung Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die Spezifikation einer Gleichung zur Erklärung des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Stundenlohnsatzes. Zunächst soll ein Satz von Variablen gefunden werden, die als Erklärungsgrößen einer langfristigen Gleichgewichtsrelation angesehen werden können. Zur Klärung dieser Frage werden Kointegrationstests verwendet. Es zeigt sich, daß Realstundenlohnsatz, Produktivität, geleistete Arbeitsstunden und Arbeitslosenrate eine solche Beziehung bilden. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit werden durch dynamische Spezifikation die kurzfristigen Anpassungsvorgänge an dieses langfristige Gleichgewicht modelliert.     

A dynamic Mincer equation with an application to Portuguese data

This article argues in favour of a dynamic specification of the Mincer equation, where the past observed earnings play the role of additional explanatory variable for current observed earnings. A dynamic approach offers an explanation why the return to schooling in terms of observed earnings is not independent of labour-market experience, as suggested by some recent empirical evidence for the United States.     

A dynamic specification of an AIDS import allocation model

In this paper we use the first-order autoregressive scheme in order to introduce dynamics into the AIDS model. We also consider the theoretical restrictions of additivity, homogeneity and symmetry, and use two different specifications of the covariance matrix. We estimate the models using import allocation data for the UK 1952–1979 of five EEC countries and test different specifications against each other.     

The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects

We argue that the proper specification of a panel gravity model should include main (exporter, importer, and time) as well as time invariant exporter-by-importer (bilateral) interaction effects. In a panel of 11 APEC countries, the latter are highly significant and account for the largest part of variation. First version received: February 2001/Final version received: June 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  We are grateful to two anonymous referees and Robert Kunst for their helpful comments.     

A dynamic econometric model of Thailand manufacturing energy demand

The purpose of this article is to employ the dynamic translog framework to model inter-factor and inter-fuel energy demand for the Thai manufacturing sector. The Denny et al. (1981) and Lynk (1989) framework, which proposes a dynamic adjustment for capital stock is employed to motivate the estimated of factor demand and fuel share equations. Three factors: energy, labour and capital; and five fuel types: fuel oil, diesel oil, liquified petroleum gas (LPG), electricity, and coal and lignite; are examined. Regression diagnostics support the empirical specification. Numerous factor and fuel substitution possibilities are identified, with some policy implications described.     

Risk in supply response: an econometric application

The impact of risk aversion on supply response is empirically estimated for selected field crops in California. As indicators of risk aversion the following surrogate variables are used: variance of past prices and yields, adjusted price to reflect the role of government support price over the market price and the dummy variables indicating price expectations. In general, the econometric estimates show a negative impact of risk aversion measured by the surrogate variables and this has implications for welfare gains resulting from price support policies aimed at stabilization.     

基于动态计量模型的青海省域经济增长实证分析

青海作为西部大开发中增长相对较慢的省份，其经济增长的问题与切入点如何，文章运用Eviews5．0统计软件，根据协整理论将对拉动经济增长的消费、投资、进出口三大马车与青海省的经济增长进行了实证研究。结果表明加快与社会主义市场经济相适应的各种制度的改革，引导消费，扩大需求，继续加大投资是当前加快青海省经济增长的着眼点。     

A note on the number of non-zero eigenvalues of a dynamic linear econometric model

Empirical Economics - According toWolters [1976], there are 7 non-zero eigenvalues for each of four alternatively estimated versions of an Econometric Model of the Federal Republic of Germany. In a...     

A comment: On the number of nonzero eigenvalues of a dynamic linear econometric model

Relying upon qualitative information, Schoonbeek [3] states that there are at most 10 nonzero eigenvalues for each of four alternative versions of an econometric model of the Federal Republic of Germany. Using also exclusively qualitative information about the model we show that the number of nonzero eigenvalues is at most 7.     

Testing for structural change in the dynamic adjustment model with autoregressive errors

The dynamic CUSUM test for structural change proposed by Kr?mer, Ploberger and Alt (1988) is investigated when the errors are serially correlated in a linear dynamic model. We show that the dynamic CUSUM test can be modified to allow for serial correlation in the disturbance using the same procedure as in Kao and Ross (1995), and that the modified dynamic CUSUM test retains its asymptotic significance levels. Monte Carlo results suggest that the empirical size of the dynamic CUSUM test is highly distorted while the empirical size of the modified dynamic CUSUM test is fairly robust to the change on the degree of autocorrelation. We also find that the power of the modified test essentially depends on the angle between the mean regressors and the structural shift. First version received: April 1997/Final version received: January 1998     

基于动态计量模型的青海省域经济增长实证分析

青海作为西部大开发中增长相对较慢的省份,其经济增长的问题与切入点如何,文章运用Eviews5.0统计软件,根据协整理论将对拉动经济增长的消费、投资、进出口三大马车与青海省的经济增长进行了实证研究.结果表明加快与社会主义市场经济相适应的各种制度的改革,引导消费,扩大需求,继续加大投资是当前加快青海省经济增长的着眼点.     

Economic reform and migration in Yugoslavia: an econometric model

"The paper analyzes the impact of external migration on the Yugoslav economy during the period 1965-1972. This is done by means of a macroeconometric model embodying various dualistic characteristics of Yugoslavia. A counterfactual simulation of the model is used to judge the impact of external migration. According to the indicators utilized, the simulation suggests that migration has been beneficial to Yugoslavia."     

Testing the null hypothesis of no regime switching with an application to GDP growth rates

This paper presents tests for the null hypothesis of no regime switching in Hamilton’s (Econometrica 57:357–384, 1989) regime switching model. The test procedures exploit similarities between regime switching models, autoregressions with measurement errors, and finite mixture models. The proposed tests are computationally simple and, contrary to likelihood based tests, have a standard distribution under the null. When the methodology is applied to US GDP growth rates, no strong evidence of regime switching is found. I thank Don Andrews, Peter Phillips, Yuichi Kitamura, Anat Bracha, Patrik Guggenberger, Orit Whiteman and three anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions.     

Testing for poverty dominance: an application to Canada

Abstract The paper proposes and applies statistical tests for poverty dominance that check for whether poverty comparisons can be made robustly over ranges of poverty lines and classes of poverty indices. This helps provide both normative and statistical confidence in establishing poverty rankings across distributions. The tests, which can take into account the complex sampling procedures that are typically used by statistical agencies to generate household‐level surveys, are implemented using the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for 1996, 1999, and 2002. Although the yearly cumulative distribution functions cross at the lower tails of the distributions, the more recent years tend to dominate earlier years for a relatively wide range of poverty lines. Failing to take into account SLID’s sampling variability (as is sometimes done) can inflate significantly one’s confidence in ranking poverty. Taking into account SLID’s complex sampling design (as has not been done before) can also decrease substantially the range of poverty lines over which a poverty ranking can be inferred.     

An econometric application of the theory of the farm-household

Employing a Cobb-Douglas specification for the production function and a modified linear expenditure system, the paper presents an econometric model of household production, consumption and labor supply behaviour for a semi-commercial farm with a competitive labor market. The model, estimated from primary, cross-sectional, Malaysian data, is used to analyse the impact of migration, output price intervention and technological change on the agricultural sector. In doing so, the wage-rate is treated as an endogenous variable to be determined by the interaction of aggregate labor demand and supply curves obtained from the estimated micro functions.     

Spatial random utility model with an application to recreation demand

The paper examines the relevance of unobserved spatial dependence between individual decision-makers in the analysis of discrete choices. To incorporate spatial interdependencies in the behavioral analysis, we propose a spatial random utility model of recreation demand. The model combines the set-theoretic concept of spatial neighborhood, endogeneity of spatial interdependencies, and unobservable individual preferences. Our estimation procedure uses an efficient pseudo maximum likelihood estimator. We apply the model to the study of recreational travel demand in Iowa and evaluate the significance of unobserved spatial interdependencies between individual households in recreational travel choices.     

Alternative interpretations of hours information in an econometric model of labour supply

This paper examines the labour supply behaviour of married women in France. A sequence of models is specified and estimated which incorporate different amounts of information on observed weekly hours. In all models the distinction is drawn between search and non-participation among non-workers. We provide extensive specification diagnostics, including Heckman-Andrews tests, as well as Hausman tests for the comparison of different handlings of the hours information. It turns out that distinguishing between part-time, full-time and long hours gives virtually the same results as treating observed hours as reflecting desired hours.