Optimal Insurance Design Under a Value-at-Risk Framework

This study designs an optimal insurance policy form endogenously, assuming the objective of the insured is to maximize expected final wealth under the Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint. The optimal insurance policy can be replicated using three options, including a long call option with a small strike price, a short call option with a large strike price, and a short cash-or-nothing call option. Additionally, this study also calculates the optimal insurance levels for these models when we restrict the indemnity to be one of three common forms: a deductible policy, an upper-limit policy, or a policy with proportional coinsurance. JEL Classification No: G22     

A Flexible Bayesian Nonparametric Model for Predicting Future Insurance Claims

Accurate prediction of future claims is a fundamentally important problem in insurance. The Bayesian approach is natural in this context, as it provides a complete predictive distribution for future claims. The classical credibility theory provides a simple approximation to the mean of that predictive distribution as a point predictor, but this approach ignores other features of the predictive distribution, such as spread, that would be useful for decision making. In this article, we propose a Dirichlet process mixture of log-normals model and discuss the theoretical properties and computation of the corresponding predictive distribution. Numerical examples demonstrate the benefit of our model compared to some existing insurance loss models, and an R code implementation of the proposed method is also provided.     

Comparing Cost Efficiency Between Financial and Non-financial Holding Banks and Insurers in Taiwan Under the Framework of Copula Methods and Metafrontier

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets - This paper examines the cost efficiency (CE), technology gap ratio (TGR), and overall cost efficiency (OCE) of 43 banks and 27 life insurance companies operating in...     

新《保险法》框架下完善我国的保险监管的思考

我国的保险监管在目标、技术以及监管实践等方面还存在诸多问题,如保险偿付能力监管任务艰巨、缺乏完整的保险监管体系等。新《保险法》在保险监管方面增加了一些新的规定,弥补了原《保险法》在这方面的不足。监管工作应当严格依据新《保险法》,调整监管目标,转变监管思路,优化监管手段．完善我国的保险监管。     

Optimal Insurance Under the Insurer's VaR Constraint

In this paper, we impose the insurer's Value at Risk (VaR) constraint on Arrow's optimal insurance model. The insured aims to maximize his expected utility of terminal wealth, under the constraint that the insurer wishes to control the VaR of his terminal wealth to be maintained below a prespecified level. It is shown that when the insurer's VaR constraint is binding, the solution to the problem is not linear, but piecewise linear deductible, and the insured's optimal expected utility will increase as the insurer becomes more risk-tolerant. Basak and Shapiro (2001) showed that VaR risk managers often choose larger risk exposures to risky assets. We draw a similar conclusion in this paper. It is shown that when the insured has an exponential utility function, optimal insurance based on VaR constraint causes the insurer to suffer larger losses than optimal insurance without insurer's risk constraint.     

美国存款保险新框架评析

90年代以来，美国的存款保险出现了一些新的特点。由于美国经济的持续繁荣，银行利润不断增加，银行业经过兼并重组，在现代科技的支持下，走上了新的发展道路，使得FDIC的保险基金储备不断增加，保险基金不断扩大，存款保险率达到了76％以上。基于风险的存款保险制度，使FDIC加强了对投保银行机构的监督检查，提高了银行机构的风险研究与防范的水平；银行保险基金、储蓄机构基金、信用社保险基金分别设立，使存款保险体系更加完善。     

Production Efficiency in the Austrian Insurance Industry: A Bayesian Examination

This paper examines the developments in the production efficiency of the Austrian insurance market for the period 1994‐1999 using firm‐specific data on life/health and non‐life insurers obtained from the Austrian insurance regulatory authority. The article uses a Bayesian stochastic frontier to obtain aggregate and firm‐specific estimates of production efficiency across insurer types and time. The study provides strong evidence that the process of deregulation had positive effects on the production efficiency of Austrian insurers. The life/health and non‐life firms showed similar patterns of development in that they were less efficient during the years 1994‐1996 and significantly more efficient in 1997‐1999. If the Austrian experience is representative, similar benefits from deregulation may be expected for the Central and Eastern European countries that prepare for the accession to the European Union.     

Predicting Downturns in the US Housing Market: A Bayesian Approach

This paper estimates Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, both spatial and non-spatial (univariate and multivariate), for the twenty largest states of the US economy, using quarterly data over the period 1976:Q1–1994:Q4; and then forecasts one-to-four quarters-ahead real house price growth over the out-of-sample horizon of 1995:Q1–2006:Q4. The forecasts are evaluated by comparing them with those from an unrestricted classical Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the corresponding univariate variant of the same. Finally, the models that produce the minimum average Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs), are used to predict the downturns in the real house price growth over the recent period of 2007:Q1–2008:Q1. The results show that the BVARs, in whatever form they might be, are the best performing models in 19 of the 20 states. Moreover, these models do a fair job in predicting the downturn in 18 of the 19 states.     

逆向选择条件下带甄别期的最优保险设计

为了改善信息不对称对保险市场交易效率的影响,分投保人为两种及两种以上风险类型建立了带甄别期的保险契约模型,指出可以利用投保人在甄别期的风险发生情况来推断投保人的风险类型.带甄别期的保险契约是指:自保险合同生效之日起的一段时间内(甄别期),如果投保人发生风险,保险公司将给予一定的赔偿,甄别期过后,如果投保人再次发生风险,保险公司将不再给予任何赔偿;如果投保人在甄别期未发生风险,而在甄别期之后的剩余保险期发生风险,保险公司仍然给予与上述情况相同的赔偿.证明指出效用最优时带甄别期的保险契约不比R-S传统部分保险契约差,并给出了前者是后者严格帕累托改进的充分条件.此外,对于两种以上风险类型情形,证明了满足对次低风险投保人的激励相容约束是满足对其余高风险投保人激励相容约束的一个充分不必要条件,并给出了相应的充分条件,进一步指出该充分条件的集合恰是带甄别期的保险契约能够产生分离均衡的一个充分条件.最后,以一个算例说明确实存在效用最优时带甄别期的保险契约是R-S传统部分保险契约的严格帕累托改进情形.     

Asymptotic Analysis of the Loss Given Default in the Presence of Multivariate Regular Variation

Consider a portfolio of n obligors subject to possible default. We propose a new structural model for the loss given default, which takes into account the severity of default. Then we study the tail behavior of the loss given default under the assumption that the losses of the n obligors jointly follow a multivariate regular variation structure. This structure provides an ideal framework for modeling both heavy tails and asymptotic dependence. Multivariate models involving Archimedean copulas and mixtures are revisited. As applications, we derive asymptotic estimates for the value at risk and conditional tail expectation of the loss given default and compare them with the traditional empirical estimates.     

Insurance Contract Design When the Insurer Has Private Information on Loss Size

This article examines the optimal indemnity contract in an insurance market, when the insurer has private information about the size of an insurable loss. Both parties know whether or not a loss occurred, but only the insurer knows the true value of the loss and/or to what extent the losses are covered under the policy. The insured may verify the insurer's loss estimate for a fixed auditing cost. The optimal contract reimburses the auditing costs in addition to full insurance for losses less than some endogenous limit. For losses exceeding this limit, the contract pays a fixed indemnity and requires no monitoring. The optimal contract is compared with the contracts obtained in cases where it is only the insured who can observe the loss size.
     

受损保险财产损失价值评估的探讨

当一项财产作为保险合同的标的,发生了因保险合同所约定的事故导致损失时,保险人应承担赔偿责任.但保险人与被保险人往往不能就保险财产的赔偿金额达成一致意见.此时,双方可共同委托具有资质的中介机构对损失进行评估,此即"保险公估"."保险公估"不仅包括出险后保险财产损失价值的评估,还包括保险双方当事人为确定保险标的价值、保险金额以及保险合同有效期内保险财产价值发生变化时对保险财产的价值进行的评估.     

网络环境下的保险业经营策略

深化保险产品的分析;以CRM理念为指导、以Intemet技术为支撑来提高服务质量;解决好网络保险的安全性问题;同时经纪人网站的出现,给各保险公司提供了开放的销售平台,形成保险超市,中国的网络保险的将呈现良好发展趋势。     

The Bankruptcy Cost of the Life Insurance Industry Under Regulatory Forbearance

Abstract

In this study the Taiwan Insurance Guaranty Fund (TIGF) is introduced to investigate the ex ante assessment insurance guaranty scheme. We study the bankruptcy cost when a financially troubled life insurer is taken over by TIGF. The pricing formula of the fair premium of TIGF incorporating the regulatory forbearance is derived. The embedded Parisian option due to regulatory forbearance on fair premiums is investigated. The numerical results show that leverage ratio, asset volatility, grace period, and intervention criterion influence the default costs. Asset volatility has a significant effect on the default option, while leverage ratio is shown to aggravate the negative influence from the volatility of risky asset. Furthermore, the numerical analysis concludes that the premium for the insurance guaranty fund is risk sensitive and that a risk-based premium scheme could be implemented, hence, to ease the moral hazard.     

化解寿险利差损的思考

目前，大量的利差损对国内寿险公司的经营和发展带来了一定的影响，已经成为保险业的主要风险之一。化解这一风险的主要措施是提高认识，优化产品结构，大力发展有效新业务，拓宽资金运用渠道。     

Testing for Asymmetric Information in the Automobile Insurance Market Under Rate Regulation

This article examines whether adverse selection or moral hazard could be induced by rate regulation, which prohibits insurance companies from considering some attributes of drivers in setting premiums. Using an individual data set from a heavily regulated automobile insurance market, we arrived at several conclusions, as follows. First, no evidence of adverse selection or moral hazard is found in general: conditional on all the variables observed by insurer, the null hypothesis of independence between risk and coverage is not rejected at reasonable levels of statistical significance. Second, this result is robust in the sense that it holds under several empirical procedures and different definitions of risk and coverage. Third, we find that unobserved variables do not induce adverse selection: the null hypothesis that consumers in risky regions are more likely to purchase insurance is tested against the alternative and rejected. Our study supports the view that the adverse selection phenomenon exists only to a very limited extent in this market.     

环境不确定条件下企业动态财务能力的分析框架

分析了环境不确定条件下动态能力、财务柔性、权变财务研究的现状与不足,构建了动态财务能力分析框架.认为动态财务能力包括两个层次:第一层次包括财务状态评判能力、财务机会创造与识别能力;第二层次包括公司治理结构、组织结构和财权配置结构调整能力,财务战略及政策调整、财务资源整合能力.企业只有在正确评判财务状态、识别财务机会的基...     

Alternative Monetary Policy Rules in the Turkish Economy Under an Inflation-Targeting Framework

This study analyzes alternative monetary-policy rules in Turkey under inflation targeting (IT) using a small-scale structural macroeconomic model. The alternatives are the Taylor rule, the monetary conditions index (MCI) rule under strict IT, and the MCI rule under flexible IT. Using the MCI rule under strict IT produces slightly better results than under flexible IT and, thus, is preferable. The results also indicate that the economy stabilizes much more quickly, and shows significantly less volatility, in the second alternative. Following the Taylor rule should definitely be avoided. However, in open economies, ignoring exchange rates when setting inflation targets is certainly not an optimal solution.     

保险公司治理研究：进展、框架与展望

利用文献检索的方法重点从研究主题角度,综述了国内外保险公司治理的相关研究成果。发现国外对保险公司治理的研究已经经历了近三十年的时间,目前已进入到深入研究的阶段;国内的相关研究起步较晚,近十年的研究还聚焦于保险公司治理的概念、模式以及国际比较等方面,亟待进一步深入。在对国内外保险公司治理相关文献梳理和比较分析的基础上,提...