中国改革历程中的产出和价格波动:货币所扮演的角色

中国经济正在其改革历程中经历着经济增长和通货膨胀的周期性波动.关于货币在这些波动中所起的作用,经济学家有着不同的观点.该文运用基于交易方程式的结构化 VEC 模型,对这些观点进行了探讨.我们发现,在长期,货币对产出和价格的变化做出适应性调整,而并非这些变化的原因.而在短期,价格变动要归因于那些对货币和价格有持久影响而对真实产出没有持久影响的冲击.这些冲击对多数的货币波动负责,并且强烈地影响产出.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF MONEY BALANCES AND THE NONNEUTRALITY OF MONEY*

Recent monetary models with explicit microfoundations are made tractable by assuming that agents have access to centralized markets after one round of decentralized trade. Given quasi‐linear preferences, this makes the distribution of money degenerate—which keeps the models simple but precludes the discussion of distributional effects of monetary policy. We generalize these models by assuming two rounds of trade before agents can readjust their money holdings to study a range of new distributional effects analytically. We show that unexpected, symmetric lump‐sum money injections may increase short‐run output and welfare, whereas asymmetric injections may increase long‐run output and welfare.     

货币需求弹性、有效货币供给与货币市场非均衡模型——解析“中国之谜”与长期流动性过剩

中国的流动性过剩相对于其他经济发达国家更为严重,不但是由于产业结构升级和对外开放度上升而导致的过度货币需求,而且是因为不良贷款引发的货币供给有效性减弱。缓解流动性过剩必须从经济转型时期的货币需求弹性、有效货币供给以及货币市场非均衡等多个方面寻找对策。     

乡镇财政解困研究:基于基层政区改革的视角

乡镇财政困境成为近年来"三农"问题研究的热点,对此的破解思路也已有诸多探索。然而总体来说,多数学者将乡镇财政解困的研究视野锁定在乡镇财政体制机制上,忽视了乡镇财政体制与基层政区组织之间的逻辑关联与互动效应。文章试图通过理论分析、逻辑推理来指出基层政区改革是研究和破解乡镇财政困难的一个恰当视角,并进一步通过文献佐证和案例印证来证实通过基层政区改革来实现乡镇财政解困的科学性与合理性。     

CONTINGENT PRICES AND MONEY*

Price posting with directed search is a widely used trading mechanism. Coles and Eeckhout showed that if sellers are allowed to post prices contingent on realized demand instead of one price, then there is real market indeterminacy. In this article, we fit this contingent price‐posting protocol into a monetary economy. We show that, as long as holding money is costly, there exists a unique equilibrium rather than a continuum. In this equilibrium sellers post a low price for when the buyer is alone, a high price for when several buyers show up, and buyers randomize between sellers and money holdings.     

PUBLIC FINANCE AND REGIONAL ACCOUNTS*

This paper discusses the problems that arise in the regional allocation of public sector accounts. These problems arise mainly in connection with the regional allocation of government expenditures on a governing rather than a procurement basis, and in the derivation of a meaningful surplus or deficit. The latter in turn requires an examination of the real geographic incidence of government revenues—to avoid, for instance, the assignment of the whole tobacco tax to Virginia and North Carolina. The use of a procurement basis for government product and the real geographic distribution of direct tax incidence for government revenue would produce a more complete and meaningful regional surplus or deficit measure, and gross regional products will not be as subject to spurious inter-regional variation.     

公共财政与和谐社会评价

公共财政与和谐社会具有内在统一性,和谐社会评价体系应充分考虑公共财政的相关因素。利用一个包含4个层次、72个具体指标的和谐社会评价体系,对我国2000—2004年社会和谐状况进行的趋势分析和国际比较表明:(1)我国现阶段社会和谐程度总体形势是令人乐观的;(2)我国自然生态环境和谐发展表现较差,且呈逐年恶化趋势,当前转变经济增长方式依然任重道远;(3)与发达国家相比,我国在社会和谐方面的国际差距依然较为明显。     

MONEY AND BANKING IN SEARCH EQUILIBRIUM*

We develop a new theory of money and banking based on the old story in which goldsmiths start accepting deposits for safe keeping, then their liabilities begin circulating as media of exchange, then they begin making loans. We first discuss the history. We then present a model where agents can open bank accounts and write checks. The equilibrium means of payment may be cash, checks, or both. Sometimes multiple equilibria exist. Introducing banks increases the set of parameters for which money is valued–thus, money and banking are complements. We also derive a microfounded version of the usual money multiplier.     

A THEORY OF MONEY AND MARKETPLACES*

This article considers an infinitely repeated economy with divisible fiat money. The economy has many marketplaces that agents choose to visit. In each marketplace, agents are randomly matched to trade goods. There exist a variety of stationary equilibria. In some equilibrium, each good is traded at a single price, whereas in another, every good is traded at two different prices. There is a continuum of such equilibria, which differ from each other in price and welfare levels. However, it is shown that only the efficient single‐price equilibrium is evolutionarily stable.     

土地财政制度对房地产价格的影响因素研究*

本文基于动态系统GMM模型,运用Stata软件和计量经济学方法,对2009—2015年中国15个大中城市房价水平的变化趋势进行研究。结果表明：（1）地方政府依靠土地财政和房地产维持地方财政,土地财政是导致房价上涨的根本原因。（2）在经济下行的背景下,地方政府和房企共同经营土地,地方政府试图通过做大土地财政拉动地方经济。（3）中央政府选择有利于中央政府效用水平增加的经济发展方式。所以中央政府、地方政府与房企会形成经济增长联盟共同推动房价上涨。（4）房企行为对土地财政导致的高房价具有放大效应,且作用效果在东部、中西部地区呈现明显的区域差异。本文的贡献是发现了房企行为与土地财政、房价上涨之间相互作用的逻辑关系,为找到缓解房地产价格上涨的措施提供了新的可能性。