Constitutionalism and credibility in reforming economies1

There has been relatively little investigation of the effect of constitutional transformations on the economic transition in post‐communist countries. We develop a simple signalling model in which constitutionalism – a commitment to limit political power and provide judicial defence of basic rights – reinforces the credibility of pro‐market candidates’ electoral promises and boosts public support for economic reforms. These findings are tested using opinion poll data on public support for reform in Central and Eastern Europe, and in the former Soviet Union, in the 1990s. In a two‐stage procedure we show that public support for market reforms is higher in countries where incumbents have taken deliberate steps to increase political accountability and judicial independence. Public support also spurs actual economic reform.     

经济改革与经济学转型

我国的经济改革是在传统计划体制背景下启动的,也是在一定的改革意识引领下发生的,但在传统政治经济学框架内形成的改革理论具有一定的局限性。改革开放以来,经济学者运用现代经济学方法对中国经济进行分析,获得了有价值的成果。但是,我国经济学理论的转型还没有完成。为了深化市场经济的改革,如何科学地认识市场经济,怎样在经济学理论研究中体现现代精神,都需要在范式转型的前提下继续进行探索。     

The Washington Consensus revisited: a new structural economics perspective

The Washington Consensus reform resulted in economic collapse and stagnation in many transition economies and “lost decades” in other developing countries in 1980s and 1990s. The paper provides a new structural economics perspective of such failures. The Washington Consensus reform failed to recognize that many firms in a transition economy were not viable in an open, competitive market because those industries went against the comparative advantages determined by the economy’s endowment structure. Their survival relied on the government’s protections and subsidies through various interventions and distortions. The Washington Consensus advised the government to focus their reforms on issues related to property rights, corporate governance, government interventions, and other issues that may obstruct a firm’s normal management. Without resolving the firms’ viability problem, such reforms led to the firms’ collapse and an unintended decline and stagnation of the economy in the transition process. This paper suggests that the viability assumption in neoclassical economics be relaxed when analyzing development and transition issues in socialist, transition, and developing economies.     

Markets wanted: expectation overshooting in transition economies

This paper analyzes and compares individual beliefs about the effects of competition and the evolution of those beliefs over time in transition economies and experienced market economies. At the onset of transition, competition beliefs in transition countries are far more positive than in experienced market economies. Over time, this difference vanishes and competition beliefs converge. It is argued that overly optimistic competition beliefs in transition countries contributed to the possibility of implementing far-reaching pro-market reforms. It is shown that competition beliefs positively affect support for economic reform.     

Ten lessons from a quarter of a century of post-communist economic transformation

The dominant idea in the early post-communist economic transition was that an early and comprehensive radical economic reform programme was needed. This program was accompanied by a clear programme of political economy reform, which included; a clear understanding that the old system was finished, a political breakthrough, new political leaders, new economic policymakers, the swift elaboration of a reform programme, a functioning parliament, sufficient international financial support, fast implementation, public understanding, and the overruling of any need for consensus. In hindsight, all of these factors worked when they were present. Critics warned of too sharp an output fall, which did not come to pass, lagging institutional development, and neglect of social reforms. The biggest problem has become the absence of real property rights because of captured judicial systems in the post-communist countries not belonging to the European Union.     

Fiscal policy and structural reforms in transition economiesAn empirical analysis

This paper provides an empirical examination of the relationship between fiscal balance and structural reforms using panel data from 25 transition economies. The results indicate that privatization and restructuring, via unemployment, affect the fiscal balance negatively. This finding provides support for ideas in theoretical transition economics that maintain that fiscal pressures are most severe in fast-reforming countries. In contrast, price liberalization has a robust positive impact on fiscal performance. In addition, the results differ somewhat over different countries and transition time.     

经济学家、经济学与中国改革

本文回顾了中国经济学家伴随中国改革成长的历程 ,历数诸多为中国建立现代市场经济制度 ,进行过艰苦的理论和思想探索的经济学家 ;并通过具体实例说明经济学家通过对于现代经济科学认识的深化 ,在改革的重大关头和事件上所发挥的重要作用。中国改革的深入 ,对于经济科学的要求愈来愈高 ,经济学的新课题层出不穷。因此 ,本文提出亟需加快我国经济科学学科建设的若干建议。     

经济转轨中自然垄断行业规制改革——竞争、所有制与激励机制选择

竞争与所有制改革是目前自然垄断行业规制改革的主要趋势.但原有的理论和经验都是针对发达国家而言,对于转轨国家如何协调经济转轨与自然垄断行业改革却没有现成的理论与经验.所以,本文从转轨国家自然垄断行业引入竞争可能性以及所有制改革模式的选择入手,研究在加入策略性激励机制后竞争与所有制模式的不同组合对自然垄断企业绩效的影响.研究发现,转轨国家自然垄断行业改革进程取决于转轨国家市场发育程度以及改革的初始条件;混合所有制的企业竞争模式比完全私有化的社会福利水平要高,也更适合于转轨国家自然垄断行业改革的所有制选择模式.     

Did support for economic and political reforms increase during the post‐communist transition,and if so,why?

We study the dynamics of individual support for changes in the economic and political system, using a unique dataset for 12 transition economies over the period 1991–2004. We document that support for transition was initially lower in the CIS countries and that there has been a converging trend in the support for reforms between the CIS and the Baltic and Central and Eastern European countries. We suggest several explanations for the initial divergence and the post‐98 convergence in support for transition between these three groups of countries, and show that economic growth, declining income inequality and improving quality of governance have contributed to increase the support for transition. In addition, we find that increased support for the market economy and democracy in the CIS is accompanied by a larger increase in trust towards the political institutions. Our results also confirm the implications of Aghion et al. ( 2010 )'s model of a negative correlation between trust and the demand for government regulation.     

Initial endowments and economic reform in 27 post-socialist countries

This study explores how initial endowments at the start of transition have shaped reform outcomes and reform trajectories in 27 former communist countries in Europe and Central Asia. Countries of the former Russian Empire that had a large resources sector at the start of transition underperformed other countries in terms of the speed and the depth of economic reforms. The effect is particularly strong for privatization, enterprise restructuring and competition policy. Within country, Ottoman or Russian provinces that had a large natural resources sector in 1989 have a lower share of entrepreneurs and of small and medium sized enterprises today and also experience endemic corruption. Our results indicate that the propensity, or ability, of special interest groups to capture the reform process that would erode their rents were facilitated by the quality of institutions whose foundations go back centuries; and that the effects on the local economy are real.     

Shock therapy and the transfer of institutions: the new debate and some lessons from the post-1806 reforms in Prussia and in southwestern Germany

There is a new debate on shock therapy versus gradualism in economics, this time referring to developing and emerging countries. The French Revolution and its impact on the other European nations has repeatedly been highlighted as a historical example for both the merits and pitfalls of the Big Bang strategy. The present paper argues that a comparison between the post-1806 reforms in Prussia and in the southwestern states of Germany offers a particularly interesting historical case study that in the economics literature has not yet received the attention it deserves. In particular, the case study shows how deeply intertwined the economic and political dimension of social transformations are, and that different economic reforms strategies cannot and should not be evaluated without taking political starting conditions into account. In view of recent reform experiences it is particularly interesting to see that Prussia offers maybe the first historical case of state capture by the East-Elbian Junkers.     

转型经济学的框架变迁与中国范式的全球价值——纪念中国改革开放30周年

中国30年改革开放为全球转型国家提供了有价值的参照体系,也为经济学家探讨转型经济学提供了丰富的视角.文章系统梳理了经济转型理论的历史性变迁,探讨新古典经济学在建立转型理论框架中所遭遇的理论困境和内在逻辑缺失,同时着重剖析了转型经济学中存在的两大基本争议,即渐进式变迁和激进式变迁的争议以及强制性变迁和诱致性变迁的争议.文章最后对中国经济改革进行了理论提炼,揭示了经济转型的中国范式的内涵及其全球意义.     

休克疗法与制度移植:新的争论以及1806年后普鲁士和西南德国改革的启示

经济学界关于休克疗法和渐进主义的争论又有了新的发展,这一次是有关发展中和新兴国家的。法国大革命及其对其他欧洲国家的影响,已经作为一个历史案例,在讨论大爆炸改革策略的优缺点时被屡屡提及。文章为1806年后普鲁士和西南德国改革之间的比较提供了一个特别有趣的历史案例研究,这到目前为止并未得到应有的重视。这个案例研究将揭示社会转型过程中经济和政治之间的深层次互动,因而对不同的经济改革策略的评价不能也不应该脱离对政治初始条件的考量。从最近的改革经验来看,一个特别有趣的发现是,普鲁士可能提供了第一个政府被东易北容克(East-Elbian Junkers)俘获的历史案例。     

转轨的意义:对近代国家社会转型难题的重新求证

本文是将转轨置于经济史背景中的一种尝试性研究.其基本观点是:从经济史的规律来看,转轨国家与近代落后国家的一个共同特征是在发展过程中缺失了某个重要阶段.这种缺失正是落后与变革的根源.为了进行求证,本文将转轨国家界定为[非历史-人为形态]的制度形态,试图将其还原到经济史的时空背景中,与发达国家[历史-自然形态]的制度形态演进过程进行比较研究,从中发掘转轨可以贡献于经济学的一般意义.     

Can religion insure against aggregate shocks to happiness? The case of transition countries

This paper examines the effects of reforms and religion on happiness in transition economies. Earlier literature suggests that religiosity insures happiness against various individual stressful life events. This phenomenon is well-explored in developed countries but rarely studied in post-communist countries, where religion was officially suppressed for a long period. These countries have undergone considerable economic transformations over the past two decades. Using cross-sectional Life in Transition Survey data and historical data on religions, I examine if religion insures against economic reforms. The endogeneity of religion is taken into account. The findings suggest that economic reforms may have both positive and negative effects on happiness. Religiosity indeed insures happiness and perceptions of economic and political situations against economic reforms.     

Bad loans,soft budget constraints and the political economy of financial market reform in transition economies

Financial market imperfections and especially the bad debt problem are among the most important factors impeding economic restructuring in transition economies. This paper analyses the implications of non-performing loans for the lending policy of banks and for the ensuing allocation of credit. It is shown that a lending bias exists in favour of old debtors, which not only impedes structural change but may also counteract policies intended to harden budget constraints and to promote restructuring. The paper also discusses from a political economy perspective, why despite these negative implications financial market reforms were not pursued more forcefully in most countries.     

Culture,democracy, and market reforms: Evidence from transition countries

Transition countries differed widely in the extent to which they implemented market reforms. This paper empirically investigates the role of culture as a potential determinant of market reform adoption among the post-socialist economies of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. I examine an unbalanced panel of up to 21 transition countries over the period 1989–2001 and estimate the relationship between different cultural typologies and the adoption of liberalizing reforms. I report that a sense of individualism and intolerance for unequal dispersion of power within societies are robustly associated with greater market reform efforts. Only limited evidence exists for the influence of other cultural attitudes.     

The political economy of land reform choices in Central and Eastern Europe

In all Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) land reform has been a key part of the overall agrarian reforms and land reform procedures differ significantly among CEECs. This paper, by focusing on distributional effects and political economy implications, explains why thirteen CEEC governments chose particular reform procedures. Key factors in their choices are the history of the land ownership, including the post-collectivization ownership status, length of Communist rule, the ethnicity of pre-collectivization owners, and the equality of pre-collectivization asset distribution. These factors influence the distributional consequences of the land reform, including the (potential) conflicts between efficiency, social equity, and historical justice, and thus the political economy equilibrium.     

To Shock or Not to Shock? Economics and Political Economy of Large-Scale Reforms

This paper studies the economics and political economy of optimal scale of reforms. The aim of the reform is to replace inefficient existing institutions by the more efficient new ones. The optimal scale of reform, in general, differs from a shock therapy that replaces the old institutions all at once. Furthermore, if agents in the economy are heterogeneous in terms of their subjective discount rates, the politically-determined reform speed may be lower in a democracy than in an economy with a benevolent dictator.