Are China and India backward? Evidence from the 19th century U.S. Census of Manufactures

Hsieh and Klenow (2009) argue that a large fraction of aggregate TFP differences between the U.S. and the developing countries of China and India can be explained by factor misallocation. Their interpretation is that this misallocation is due to institutions and policies in these developing countries that redirect resources from productive to unproductive firms. Using the U.S. Census of Manufactures from the late 19th century, I find that the level of dispersion in these modern, less developed countries is very similar to that in the 19th century U.S. What is similar about the countries is their level of development not the existence of institutions that Hsieh and Klenow (2009) emphasize such as state-owned enterprises as in China or entry restrictions as in India. These results suggest that the institutional basis of misallocation potentially goes beyond these overtly distortionary policies. I apply their accounting procedure to the U.S. and find that between 4% and 7% of total manufacturing TFP growth in the 20th century can be attributed to a more efficient intra-industry allocation of resources. I conclude by discussing some other explanations for these results including differences in transportation networks and lack of competitive regulation.     

The importance of timing in the U.S. response to undocumented immigrants: A recursive dynamic approach

In an attempt to control the flow of undocumented immigrants, successive U.S. governments have considered large scale deportation, amnesties, expanding visa programs, and fining firms who hire undocumented workers. Using a comparative static model, Aguiar and Walmsley (2013), find that amnesties have a positive impact on the U.S. economy. However, such policies are one-time changes in the labor force, whose benefits diminish over time, and which are unlikely to stop the flow of undocumented workers or fulfill the demands of U.S. firms for cheap foreign labor. In this paper, we use a global dynamic model to investigate the long run implications of three policy scenarios: 1) a one-time amnesty for undocumented workers living in the U.S.; 2) a permanent increase in the number of foreign worker visas; and 3) enhanced border security. We find that an amnesty is much less effective than a permanent increase in the number of visas at promoting economic growth in the U.S., while enhanced border control by the U.S. has a small negative effect due to the relative size of the undocumented labor market in the U.S. Combined, the three policies offer a mechanism for supporting U.S. short- and long-term economic growth, while also benefiting suppliers of migrant workers, such as Mexico.     

Asymmetric tax multipliers

Using recently published tax series by Romer and Romer (2010) and Cloyne (2013) we examine whether or not positive and negative tax shocks have asymmetric effects on the U.S. and U.K. economies. We find that in the U.S. positive tax shocks—tax increases—do not affect output while negative tax shocks—tax cuts—have large, positive effects. In the U.K., tax increases substantially reduce output while tax cuts have no significant effect.     

Identity and social exclusion: an experiment with Hispanic immigrants in the U.S.

In this study we conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with low-income Hispanics in three neighborhoods in a large city in the U.S. to investigate how identity and social exclusion influences individual contributions to fund local public goods. We find that while the strength of identity has a significant and positive impact on individual contributions to local public goods, the perception of social exclusion significantly decreases contributions. Our findings thus suggest factors that may impede full civic participation, and shed important light on potential policies to increase integration of immigrants and ethnic minorities into mainstream society.     

The fiscal impact of high-skilled emigration: Flows of Indians to the U.S.

What are the fiscal consequences of high-skilled emigration for source countries? This paper develops methodologies for inferring these consequences and applies them to the recent sizable emigration of high-skilled workers from India to the U.S. This wave of emigration from India to the U.S. is shown to be unusually concentrated amongst the prime-age work force, the highly educated and high earners. In order to calculate the fiscal losses associated with these emigrants, estimates of their counterfactual earnings distributions are generated using two distinct methods and integrated with a model of the Indian fiscal system to calculate fiscal consequences. Conservative estimates indicate that the annual net fiscal impact to India of high-skilled emigration to the U.S. is one-half of 1% of gross national income (or 2.5% of total fiscal revenues). The sensitivity of these results to the method of predicting counterfactual incomes and the implications of these estimates for other developing countries is discussed in detail.     

THE WEALTH AND ASSET HOLDINGS OF U.S.-BORN AND FOREIGN-BORN HOUSEHOLDS: EVIDENCE FROM SIPP DATA

SIPP data are used to analyze the wealth of the U.S. foreign-born population. We find that the median wealth level of U.S.-born couples is 2.5 times the median of foreign-born couples, while the median wealth level of U.S.-born singles is three times that of foreign-born singles. Further, there is a great deal of diversity in wealth within the immigrant population. Diversity in net worth manifests itself primarily in source-region differences, while entry-cohort is more closely related to portfolio choices. Established immigrants hold less and recent immigrants hold more financial wealth. An opposite pattern emerges with respect to real estate equity.     

A NEW LOOK AT THE WEALTH ADEQUACY OF OLDER U.S. HOUSEHOLDS

We examine the current wealth adequacy of older U.S. households using the 1998–2006 waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We find that the median older U.S. household is reasonably well situated, with a ratio of comprehensive net wealth to present value poverty‐line wealth of about 3.9 in 2006. About 18 percent of households, however, have less wealth than would be needed to generate 150 percent of poverty‐line income over their expected future lifetimes. We see similar patterns of wealth adequacy when we examine ratios of annualized comprehensive wealth to pre‐retirement earnings. Comparing the leading edge of the baby boomers in 2006 to households of the same age in 1998, we find that the baby boomers show slightly less wealth, in real terms, than their elders did, but still appear to have adequate resources at the median. Moreover, we find a rising age profile of annualized wealth, even within households over time and after controlling for other factors, suggesting that older households are not spending their wealth as quickly as their survival probabilities are falling.     

Industrial policy and U.S.-Japanese trade

We find that while the depreciation subsidy and special treatment from the MITI has significantly promoted the Japanese trade advantage, legalized cartelization status in Japan has not had any apparent effect on bilateral trade with the U.S.     

U.S. R&D internationalization in less‐developed countries: Determinants and insights from Brazil,China, and India

The growing U.S. R&D internationalization has historically been concentrated in developed countries. However, in the past few decades, the internationalization has moved toward less‐developed countries (LDCs), particularly Brazil, China, and India. What location factors are making some LDCs more “inviting” for U.S. R&D offshore? To answer this first question, we constructed a panel data using secondary data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis regarding the R&D investment made by the majority‐owned foreign affiliates of U.S. parent companies in 71 countries. We then applied a Heckman two‐step correction for selection bias test. The results highlight some important differences between developed countries’ and LDCs’ attractiveness. Based on these initial results, we conducted a detailed analysis of the determinants of U.S. R&D investments in Brazil, China, and India, which revealed that China’s determinants mostly match those found in more developed countries.     

The Impact of U.S. Individual and Institutional Investor Sentiment on Foreign Stock Markets

This study examines the degree to which U.S. individual and institutional investor sentiments are propagated abroad. Previous studies construe investor sentiments as fully irrational; we find contrary evidence that individual and institutional investor sentiments are driven by both rational and irrational factors, with distinct effects on domestic and international stock market returns. The generalized impulse response functions from VAR model estimations show that U.S. institutional investor sentiments have varying degrees of impact on the equity markets of the U.K., Mexico, and Brazil, and no effect on Chile. Specifically, the individual investor sentiment effect is statistically significant only for the U.K market. Not surprisingly, the two classes of investor sentiments have a strong significant effect on the U.S. stock market returns. The response of the U.S. to individual investor sentiments is relatively more erratic, while the response to institutional investor sentiments is smoother. This difference in pattern becomes more visible when we consider the response of the foreign stock markets. We find significant effects of rational sentiments of institutional investors on the U.S., the U.K., Mexico, and Brazil. However, there is an insignificant effect of the irrational sentiments on the same set of countries. A direct implication of our empirical evidence is that it is important for international asset pricing models to consider the role of rational sentiments of institutional and individual investors on developed and emerging markets.     

FOREIGN ENTRY INTO U.S. SERVICE INDUSTRY BY TAKEOVERS AND THE CREATION OF NEW FIRMS

We study the relation between foreign entry in U.S. service sector industries and the revealed comparative advantage of the investing country using U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis firm‐level data on all foreign takeovers and new foreign‐owned firms from 1998 to 2008. We find foreign acquisitions in the service sector are in industries of U.S. comparative advantage while new foreign firms are in industries of investing country's comparative advantage. This suggests that foreign acquisitions in the service sector are not directly related to foreign investors' competitiveness in the industry of investment. In contrast foreign investors in new service sector firms come from countries with a competitive edge in the industries of investment. We also find that foreign investors of new service sector firms are from Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries with a comparative disadvantage in royalties and trademarks. (JEL F21, F23, G34)     

The Costs of U.S. Hegemony: Military power,military spending,and U.S. trade performance

For David Gordon and his collaborators in the social structures of accumulation (SSA) tradition, the willingness to threaten potential adversaries with military forces capable of acting on a global scale was seen to positively affect the U.S. terms of trade. U.S. hegemony yielded specific supply side benefits as favorable terms of trade reduced relative input prices and boosted profitability. Although Gordon and his co-authors recognize the potential costs of sustaining a large, globally active military apparatus, these costs are not incorporated in the econometric models supporting the SSA theory. This paper attempts to extend the SSA analysis by empirically measuring the effects of both military spending and military power on U.S. trade performance over the 1951–1987 period. It is shown that while military power and spending commitments may have positive effects on the terms of trade, these military variables had direct and indirect negative impacts on the U.S. net export balance and therefore domestic aggregate demand. In the context of a model of U.S. growth performance open to international transactions, the overall effect of the postwar military system on U.S. economic growth was likely negative in the cold-war era     

WEALTH INEQUALITY AND HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE: U.S. VS. SPAIN

We study the link between culturally inherited household structure and wealth distribution in international comparisons using household data for the U.S. and Spain (the SCF and the EFF). We estimate counterfactual U.S. distributions relying on the Spanish household structure. Our results show that differences in household structure account for most of the differences in the lower part of the distribution between the two countries, but mask even larger differences in the upper part of the distribution. Imposing the Spanish household structure to the U.S. wealth distribution has little effect on the Gini coefficient and wealth top shares. However, this is the net result of reduced differences at the bottom and increased differences at the top. So there is distinct additional information in considering the whole distribution. Finally, we present results for the within‐group differences between the two countries using quantile regressions and find a reversing pattern by age.     

中美建设工程交易费用影响因素比较——基于中美调研数据

从影响建设工程交易费用的决定性因素入手,构建了建设工程交易费用影响因素假设模型。利用来自中国和美国的调研数据,应用结构方程模型验证了研究假设。结果显示:中国业主行为的不确定性对交易费用有正向影响,且该影响在中国比在美国大;承包商行为的不确定性对建设工程交易费用具有正向影响,且该影响在美国比在中国大;交易环境和机制的不确定性对项目管理效率具有负向影响,且该影响在中国比在美国大;交易环境和机制的不确定性对建设工程交易费用具有负向影响,项目管理效率对建设工程交易费用具有正向影响。     

Impact of exchange-rate variability on commodity trade between U.S. and Germany

Previous studies that looked at the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows used aggregate trade data between one country and rest of the world or between two countries. More recent studies, however, have expanded the literature by using a highly disaggregated commodity level data between two countries. In this paper we consider the sensitivity of 131 industries that trade between U.S. and Germany. We find that exports and imports of a majority of the industries react to the real dollar–euro volatility in the short run. The short-run effects, however, last into the long run only in almost 50 % of the industries. Among these industries, while almost all U.S. exporting industries are affected favorably by exchange rate volatility, a majority of the U.S. importing industries are affected adversely.     

Effects of U.S. Banking Deregulation on Unemployment Dynamics

I use state-level banking deregulation in the U.S. to study the causal impact of credit expansion on unemployment through its effects on the average monthly job-finding and job-losing rates. State-level analysis shows that deregulation increased the average job-finding rate and decreased the job-losing rate, and thus led to a lower unemployment rate. I also find that deregulation decreased the average unemployment duration. Extending the analysis to industry-state level, I find that the impact of deregulation on the job-finding rate is positive, but does not show any pattern across industries with respect to their needs for external finance. However, deregulation reduced the average job-losing rate, and the reduction monotonically increases with industries’ dependence on external finance.     

The effects of Japanese foreign exchange market interventions on the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate volatility

In previous empirical work, the link between the interventions of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and exchange rate volatility has mainly been analyzed by using data on press reports of BoJ interventions. We use official intervention data for the period 1993–2000 that were released only recently by the BoJ. We find a positive link between the interventions of the BoJ and the volatility of the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate. We also find that those BoJ interventions that were not reported in the financial press were positively correlated with exchange rate volatility.     

论印度在中国地缘战略中的角色定位及相关影响

随着中美矛盾日益加深，如何突破美国的遏制以获得自身的发展成为当前中国地缘战略的核心。在来自美国的共同压力下，提升与地区大国印度的战略合作，并建立一个更有利于发展中国家的全球合作机构，既有助于突破美国的遏制，又有利于周边环境的安宁稳定，从而对中国在中亚、南亚和东亚的具体战略安排带来积极作用，符合当前中国地缘战略宏观层次上的整体布局。     

Integration of world leaders and emerging powers into the Malaysian stock market: A DCC-MGARCH approach

This paper examines the financial integration of two world leaders (the U.S. and Japan) and two emerging powers (China and India) into the Malaysian stock market. A DCC-MGARCH approach is employed to examine the correlations among these countries in a time-variant manner to indicate the degree of financial integration among the countries. It is found that the financial integration between Malaysia and China started to evolve in April 2004. Strong financial integration between the stock markets in India and Malaysia was observed. In contrast, the volatility spillover effect from the U.S. to Malaysia disappeared, especially in the short term. Nevertheless, the study suggests that in the long run, investors in Malaysia could gain by diversifying their portfolios in China and Japan relative to India and the U.S.     

Taxes, Regulations, and the Value of U.S. and U.K. Corporations

We derive the quantitative implications of growth theory for U.S. corporate equity plus net debt over the period 1960–2001. There were large secular movements in corporate equity values relative to GDP, with dramatic declines in the 1970's and dramatic increases starting in the 1980's and continuing throughout the 1990's. During the same period, there was little change in the capital–output ratio or earnings share of output. We ask specifically whether the theory accounts for these observations. We find that it does, with the critical factor being changes in the U.S. tax and regulatory system. We find that the theory also accounts for the even larger movements in U.K. equity values relative to GDP in this period.