The Value-relevance of Geographic Segment Earnings Disclosures Under SFAS 14

This study examines whether geographic segment earnings as reported under the requirements of SFAS 14 provide value-relevant information. The FASB recently issued SFAS 131, which drastically changes the segment reporting requirements for US firms. Firms are required to disclose segment information by operating segment. For those firms that define operating segments along industry lines, disclosure of geographic segment earnings is no longer required. If geographic segment earnings provide value-relevant information, a potentially valuable source of information may be lost.
In this study, geographic segment earnings coefficients are estimated by (1) regressing unexpected security returns on unexpected geographic segment earnings and (2) regressing leading-period returns on current geographic segment earnings. Leading period returns involve extending the return interval to include the returns for prior years. The results show that unexpected geographic segment earnings relate differentially to unexpected security returns. For the leading-period returns model, little significant evidence is found for the market's differential valuation of geographic segment earnings coefficients for one- and two-year return intervals. When the return intervals extend to three years or more, significant evidence is found that the market values geographic segment earnings differently, which suggests that such disclosures reflect information used by market participants in setting security prices. The FASB may want to reconsider or amend its segment reporting requirements.     

The Predictive Ability of Geographic Segment Information at the Country, Continent, and Consolidated Levels

This study examines whether geographic information disclosed at an increasingly disaggregated level (specifically, consolidated vs. continent vs. country) results in increased predictive ability of company operations (specifically, sales, gross profit, and earnings). Multinational corporations (MNCs) are formed using a simulated merger approach by combining the annual operating results of six individual firms, one from each of six countries. This approach makes it possible to compare the forecasting accuracy of data disclosed at the country, continent, and consolidated levels, not possible using current geographic segment disclosures. Previous studies using year-ahead forecast models implicitly assume the predictive factors included in the models are significant in forecasting operating results. Using regression forecast models, this study tests whether the predictive factors included in the models are effective in forecasting operating results by examining the direction, size, and significance of the regression coefficient estimates. The coefficients provide evidence that exchange rate changes, inflation, and real GNP growth are useful in forecasting annual sales and gross profit. Whereas, at least for this sample and this time period, exchange rate changes, inflation, and real GNP growth are not significant variables in forecasting annual earnings. The results indicate that the accuracy of forecasts increase as sales and gross profit are disclosed at a more disaggregated geographic level. The hypothesized relationship between consolidated, continent, and country levels, while holding strongly under perfect foresight, holds to a lesser extent using forecasts of exchange rates, inflation, and real GNP.     

UK Multinationals' Effective Use of Financial Currency‐Hedge Techniques: Estimating and Explaining Foreign Exchange Exposure Using Bilateral Exchange Rates

Using a unique dataset of recently available accounting disclosures, this study examines the relationship between UK multinationals' stock returns and changes in the principal exchange rate to which each firm is most exposed. We find more firms with significant foreign exchange exposure estimates using this firm‐specific principal currency data, compared with those exposure estimates using the broad exchange rate index data prevalent in prior studies. The cross‐sectional variations in such principal‐currency exposure estimates are explained in relation to the financial currency‐hedge techniques that each firm specifically identifies as being used to manage its currency risk. In particular, we provide evidence that firms effectively use foreign currency derivatives and foreign‐denominated debt to reduce the currency risk associated with the bilateral exchange rate to which they are most exposed. This study is important to both the academic and the practitioner communities because it represents the first use of publicly available UK disclosures to improve the estimation and explanation of foreign exchange exposure.     

An Exploratory Study of the Effect on Forecast Accuracy of Using Different Geographic Segment Data Sources

The specific research question this study investigates is whether or not model-based earnings forecasts utilizing COMPUSTAT's country specific geographic segment data produce more accurate earnings forecasts than model-based forecasts utilizing data from actual geographic segment footnotes. This study compares the accuracy of earnings forecasts from models using the geographic segment information in actual geographic segment footnotes to the accuracy of earnings forecasts from models using the geographic segment information in the COMPUSTAT business segment tape. Evidence collected in this study indicates that geographic segment data provided in the COMPUSTAT business segment data base appears to make it possible to more accurately predict sales than does the geographic segment data provided in the same companies' actual geographic segment footnote.     

Pricing-to-market in U.S. imports and exports: A time series and cross-sessional study

This paper provides a comparative study of how U.S. imports and exports prices react to exchange rate changes. It finds, through time series analyses, that while both U.S. and foreign exporters price to market, foreign exporters in general absorb a large portion of exchange rate changes by themselves while U.S. exporters pass through most of the exchange rate change to foreign currency prices. Pricing behavior of U.S. imports and, to a lesser extent, of U.S. exports varies across industries and such variation relates to industry characteristics such as market shares, product d differentiation, and capital-to-labor ratio.     

How Comprehensive is Comprehensive Income? The Value Relevance of Foreign Currency Translation Adjustments

Prior empirical research has been unable to forge an unambiguous link between foreign currency translation adjustments, which are an element of “other items of comprehensive income,” and firm valuation. This study adds to the existing literature by empirically testing the value relevance of foreign currency translation adjustments in an earnings and book value model. Interaction terms, which serve as proxies for the theoretical sources of exchange rate exposure, are included in the estimating equation. The main finding of this study is that foreign currency translation adjustments are significantly value relevant when their parameter estimates are allowed to vary in the cross‐section.     

外币报表折算方法选择的多维视角分析——从SFAS 8到SFAS 52转变的思考

外币报表折算方法的选择是争论较多的一个会计难题,从SFAS 8到SFAS 52的转变出发,从汇率理论到会计理论和决策理论进行多视角的分析,可以发现时态法和现时汇率法各自的理论上的优点和缺陷。立足现实的角度,我国的外币报表折算方法应采取更为灵活的策略。     

Foreign Currency Translation Reporting and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect

This study further explores a structural break in the relation between stock returns of firms with foreign currency positions and lagged exchange rate changes (exchange rate exposure effect) documented in Bartov and Bodnar (1994). We examine whether changes in the financial accounting reporting of foreign currency positions from SFAS No. 52 might have improved investors' ability to characterize firms' economic exchange rate exposures, and thus the impact of exchange rate movements on firm value. Our findings indicate that only firms reporting using the dollar as the functional currency (i.e., those reporting as if they were still under SFAS No. 8) retain a significant relation between the lagged change in the dollar and firm value in the post-SFAS No. 52 period. For firms reporting using the foreign currency as the functional currency (i.e., those who switched to the new translation method) the significant lagged relation disappears. This is consistent with the use of a foreign currency as the functional currency under SFAS No. 52 facilitating valuation of U.S. firms with foreign operations.     

Currency depreciation effects on ADR returns: evidence from Latin America

We use seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) and multivariate regression models (MVRM) in a panel sample of 74 American depository receipts (ADR) programs from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico during the period May 1994 to May 2009 to analyze the behavior of ADR returns during the 300-day period surrounding the currency crises breakdown in the originator??s country. Controlling for the underlying stock and local and host country equity indices, we find that ADRs generate significant negative abnormal returns during currency crises, due to translation exposure. Abnormal returns remain statistically significant even in crises triggered by currency depreciations as small as 3.6%. The results persist after including exchange rate returns as a control variable and after an orthogonalization procedure of exchange rate against local country indices. In agreement with ADR literature, our results show that ADR prices are determined primarily by the underlying stock, exchange rates, and host country index, in that order. Moreover, we observe how market integration has become evident in more recent times as the coefficients for the U.S. stock market have increased its contribution to ADR price discovery.     

货币替代和反替代对我国汇率影响的实证研究

货币替代和反替代会影响一国汇率政策的有效性和汇率的决定.我国目前货币替代和货币反替代并存,其中货币替代的程度呈现不断下降的趋势,而货币反替代的程度则不断增强.选取2001Q1-2011Q4之间的相关数据为研究样本,通过构建包含货币替代和货币反替代的粘性价格货币模型,实证检验了我国货币替代和货币反替代对人民币汇率的影响程度.结果发现:货币替代和货币反替代都会影响到我国的汇率,进而会降低我国汇率政策的有效性,但货币反替代的影响更加强烈.     

“汇改”后汇率变动对股票市场的影响——基于具体行业股票收益率的实证分析

使用GARCH和分位数回归模型,以11个具体行业上市公司为样本,对2005年7月＂汇改＂后人民币汇率变动与股票市场中行业股票收益率波动的相关性进行分析,研究结果表明：相对于即期汇率,以远期汇率为代表的汇率预期对行业股票收益率影响更为明显;预期汇率对行业股票收益率的影响具有明显的阶段性特征;在第一阶段,受远期汇率影响的行业主要对远期汇率的升值比较关注,而在第三阶段,不同行业对即期汇率和远期汇率的反应呈现多样化。     

汇率变动对我国商品贸易结构影响研究

汇率作为相对价格和政策变量,具有引导贸易流向和调整贸易结构的作用。由于汇率变动引起生产中所使用要素相对价格发生变化,从而改变一国生产某类商品比较优势程度发生变化,使统一汇率政策可以成为差别产业贸易政策。本文从我国进出口商品贸易结构以及贸易国别来源角度分析人民币汇率改制后我国进出口商品贸易结构变化。采用实证方法考察人民币实际汇率变动对我国进口和出口商品贸易结构的影响。     

U.S.-German commodity trade and the J-curve: New evidence from asymmetry analysis

Since the introduction of the nonlinear ARDL approach and asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modeling, old relations are receiving renewed attention, and the link between the trade balance and the exchange rate is no exception. We add to this new literature by using industry-level data from 59 2-digit industries that trade between the U.S. and Germany. We find that when the old approach of the linear model was used, the real dollar-euro rate had short-run effects in 17 industries that lasted into the long run in 26 industries. However, when the nonlinear model was estimated, we found short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in 49 industries, which lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 28 industries. The J-curve effect was supported in a total of 18 industries.     

Predictability in international stock returns using currency fluctuations and forward rate forecasts

We find that currency risk, specifically dollar exchange rate risk, is a determinant in firm stock returns worldwide. Firms exposed to various dollar exchange rate risks worldwide exhibit strong differences in expected returns, and firms with previously high sensitivity to their home country’s exchange rate fluctuation subsequently outperform during the following six to twelve months. This effect is robust across countries, time, exchange rate policies, and macroeconomic environments. We find that information in currency forward rates provides additional, useful information when predicting future returns of these currency-sensitive firms, and dynamic, state-space estimation of currency forward rate term structures complements the predictability.     

Inflation,Translation and Conflicts in Statements of Financial Accounting Standards*

This paper utilizes the concept of aggregative consistency defined in Rubinstein and Fishburn [1986], and the FASB's concept of representational faithfulness to evaluate foreign currency translation and accounting for changing prices as embodied in SFAS 70. The paper shows that SFAS 70 produces measurement errors and creates a foreign currency translation adjustment which does not reflect the effects of exchange rate changes. The conditions defined in the paper also facilitate an evaluation of the relative merits of restate/translate and translate/restate. Restate/translate can conceivably be used if there is no consolidation. In the more usual case where consolidation is required, translate/restate using the relevant shareholders' consumption index will yield aggregatively consistent values under fewer restrictive conditions.     

Information versus adverse Anlegerbeeinflussung: Befund und Implikationen der empirischen Rechnungswesenforschung zur Publizität von Pro-forma-Ergebnisgrößen

Pro forma earnings represent voluntarily disclosed performance metrics that modify the mandatory (GAAP) income number. Motives discussed to explain this disclosure phenomenon are to increase the informativeness of earnings (information), or to influence investors in an adverse fashion (opportunism). The objective of this paper is to survey the extant US and German literature pertaining to pro forma earnings disclosures, with a special emphasis on the ensuing regulatory discussion, to point out promising avenues for future research. Extant studies, on the one hand, demonstrate evidence in favour of (incremental) informativeness (value relevance, information content) of pro forma earnings. On the other hand, they find evidence that small investors in particular tend to process pro forma earnings information in an undue fashion. In the light of evidence that demonstrates extensive use of pro forma earnings disclosures by large German corporations, this research literature lends support to recent concerns voiced by European securities regulators, and points at avenues for future research into capital markets reception of pro forma earnings disclosures both on the German capital market and in an EU/IFRS context.     

Models for the Valuation of International Convertible Bonds

This paper presents a family of three models for the valuation of international convertible bonds which are denominated in a currency different from that of the country of the issuing corporation. The first model is two-state, with the value of the underlying stock and the value of the currency of the parent country as state variables. The second model is one-state. It is derived from the first one, with the two state variables collapsed into one, listed share price times exchange rate. The third model is an extension of the second one, in that it includes the risk of devaluation of the currency of the country of the issuing corporation. One specific Euroconvertible bond, issued by the Swedish corporation SCA, is used as illustration throughout.     

Industry trade between Canada and Mexico: Will a weakening peso help Mexican manufacturing in the long run?

Mexico has longed served as one of Canada's major trade partner, but the plunging peso has had drastic effects across North America. This study investigates the bilateral trade relationship between Canada and Mexico for 27 individual industries, from 1973 to 2006. Cointegration analysis shows that overall sensitivity to the real exchange rate is weak, but that the trade balances of certain manufacturing industries do indeed improve after a currency depreciation. The “J-curve” effect is present for certain electrical and mechanical industries, suggesting that the recent decline of the peso may currently be having a negative impact on Mexican trade—but that it might eventually be beneficial, particularly for the Machinery and Transport Equipment sector.     

An analysis of industry and country effects in global stock returns: evidence from Asian countries and the U.S.

This paper estimates a factor model for 7 equity markets and 22 industrial group returns indexes from January 1990 to February 2001 to measure the relative importance of industry and country effects. Our results indicate that industry effects have significantly dominated country effects since 1999 and that country effects tend to exhibit a cyclical trend.In addition, we investigate the impact of the U.S. and Japan on the other Asian countries under study. Significant evidence indicates that Japan has had a greater impact than the U.S. on these countries. From the viewpoint of industries, the industry effects of current mainstream industries such as computer software, electronics, semiconductors, telecommunications-wireless and telecommunications equipment have apparently dominated those of traditional industries such as textiles and leather and steel.     

Which exchange rate regimes in an era of high capital mobility?☆

This paper asks what influence increasing capital mobility has on the choice of exchange rate regime. Among exchange rate regimes considered are currency boards and dollarization. It is argued that a key lesson of the recent currency and financial crises in the emerging markets is that corner solutions in exchange rate policy may be preferable to less rigidly fixed exchange rates. The paper concludes that in the end the optimal exchange rate regime depends on the circumstances of a particular country and time, because each exchange rate system requires the fulfillment of certain preconditions. The paper then discusses institutional measures and innovations that may be necessary to enable exchange rate arrangements to avoid financial and currency crises or to dampen their consequences.