Sample selection and event study estimation

The anomalies literature suggests that pricing is biased systematically for securities grouped by certain characteristics. If these characteristics are related to selection in an event study sample, imprecise predictions of an event study method may produce erroneous results. This paper performs simulations to compare a battery of short-run event study prediction and testing methods where samples are grouped by market equity, prior returns, book-to-market, and earnings-to-price ratios. Significant statistical errors are reported for both standard and newer methods, including three- and four-factor models. A characteristic-based benchmark model produces the least biased returns with the least rejection errors in all samples.     

Event studies with a contaminated estimation period

Event studies are an important tool for empirical research in Finance. Since the seminal contribution of Fama et al. [Fama, E., Fisher, L., Jensen, M., Roll, R., 1969. The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International Economic Review 10, 1–21], there have been many enhancements to the classical test methodology. Somewhat surprisingly, the estimation period has attracted less interest. It is usually routinely determined as a fixed window prior to the event announcement day. In this study, we propose a test that reduces the impact of potentially unrelated events during the estimation period. Our proposition is based on a two-state version of the classical market model as a return-generating process. We present standard specification and power analyses. The results highlight the importance of explicitly controlling for unrelated events occurring during the estimation window, especially in the presence of event-induced increase in return volatility.     

Measuring the persistence of deviations from purchasing power parity with a fractionally integrated STAR model

Empirically, elements of both fractional long memory and threshold non-linearity are present in the real exchange rates of the G-7 countries against the US, notably in the EU countries. Estimated half lives of deviations from PPP using median unbiased corrections to conventional linear autoregressive models corroborate existing evidence related to the PPP paradox as half lives range from at least four years to an infinite number of years. In contrast, for each EU country, accounting for threshold non-linearity results in estimated half lives that can be less than three years even with the allowance for fractional long memory.     

保险资金不动产投资模式研究

本文首先对国际上保险资金进行不动产直接投资和间接投资的情况进行了概述,然后对保险资金不动产投资模式进行了归纳总结和案例分析。在此基础上,对我国目前保险资金不动产投资政策与模式进行了探讨。最后,针对我国保险资金不动产投资业务的发展提出了相关建议。     

An option pricing approach to the valuation of real estate contaminated with hazardous materials

This paper uses option pricing to examine how the presence of hazardous materials affects real estate value. The property owner has two options. The first option is to remove the hazardous materials at the best time. The second option, embedded in the first one, is to redevelop the property at the best opportunity. The owner has three possible timing strategies with respect to the exercise of these two options: remove the hazardous materials first and retain the option to redevelop the property later, remove and redevelop at the same time, or do nothing. Conditions under which the presence of the hazardous materials may either expedite or postpone the decision to redevelop are also derived. If the regulatory environment does not allow the property owner to make optimal timing decisions with respect to the exercise of these options, then our results provide an indication of the cost of regulation as measured by the additional loss in property value.     

Re-examining the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model

The main purpose of this paper is to re-examine the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model, and demonstrates that the Sarkar (J Econ Dyn Control 24:219–225, 2000) model is a special case of our model. This paper uses a general dynamic process, which incorporates mean reversion and jumps in a firm’s project earnings. We further derive a quasi-analytical form solution for the critical investment value and investment probability of a firm’s projects. From the simulation results, we find that an increase in uncertainty can always lead to an increase in the probability of investment, and thus has a positive impact on investment. These results, which differ from the findings of Sarkar (J Econ Dyn Control 24:219–225, 2000), could be explained by the mean-reversion and jump effects on a firm’s earnings.     

Nonparametric estimation for a stochastic volatility model

Consider discrete-time observations (X _{? δ} )_1≤?≤n+1 of the process X satisfying $dX_{t}=\sqrt{V_{t}}dB_{t}Consider discrete-time observations (X _{ℓ δ} )_{1≤ℓ≤n+1} of the process X satisfying dX_t=?{V_t}dB_tdX_{t}=\sqrt{V_{t}}dB_{t} , with V a one-dimensional positive diffusion process independent of the Brownian motion B. For both the drift and the diffusion coefficient of the unobserved diffusion V, we propose nonparametric least square estimators, and provide bounds for their risk. Estimators are chosen among a collection of functions belonging to a finite-dimensional space whose dimension is selected by a data driven procedure. Implementation on simulated data illustrates how the method works.     

Reserve risk estimation in a linear model

This paper presents the linear model, a framework for stochastic modeling of known methods as well as for the development of new methods of loss reserving. The linear model allows the determination of optimal predictors of non-observable cumulated and incremental losses and thus the derivation of optimal reserves by minimization of the expected squared prediction error.     

Analyst estimation revision clusters and corporate events, Part II

Summary In Part I of this study, we evaluated the relative usefulness of information in alternative corporate information events (CIEs) to analysts by examining the frequency with which they trigger clusters of analysts’ earnings estimate revisions. In Part II, we examine investor response to various CIEs and their revision clusters. We find that stock prices react most strongly and adjust most quickly to revision clusters that accompany CIEs that focus on financial statement information. CIEs that offer strategic information take longer for analysts and investors to assimilate, and investors appear to rely heavily on later analyst revisions following such events.     

Analyst estimation revision clusters and corporate events,Part I

Summary This paper uses periods of unusually heavy earnings estimate revision activity by analysts to assess the relative usefulness of corporate information events (CIEs) in firm valuation. Because accounting information is more readily available, newsworthy and accessible, we hypothesize that CIEs that focus on financial statement information trigger greater analyst revision activity over a shorter period of time than CIEs that offer strategic or “soft” information. Our results are consistent with this hypothesis. In Part II, we examine investor response to revision clusters that accompany different CIEs.We thank the Editor, an anonymous referee, Joe Cooper, Todd Doersch, Tony Greig, Kent Konkol and Marc Sievers for helpful suggestions and discussions. We also thank Mehmet Ozbilgin and James Su for programming during the planning phase of this project, and Jinyoung Park for research assistance during its execution. We are very grateful to Thomson Financial, CCBN and Reuters Data for providing data used in this study. Bagnoli and Watts thank the Krannert Graduate School of Management andPurdue University for financial support.     

Trading frequency and event study test specification

We examine the effects of thin trading on the specification of event study tests. Simulations of upper and lower tail tests are reported with and without variance increases on the event date across levels of trading volume. The traditional standardized test is misspecified for thinly traded samples. If return variance is unlikely to increase, then Corrado's rank test provides the best specification and power. With variance increases, the rank test is misspecified. The Boehmer et al. standardized cross-sectional test (Event-study methodology under conditions of event-induced variance, Journal of Financial Economics 30, pp. 253–272) is properly specified, but not powerful, for upper-tailed tests. Lower-tailed alternative hypotheses can best be evaluated using the generalized sign test.     

The ex ante real rate and inflation premium under a habit consumption model

This paper analyzes and quantifies ex ante components of bond yields – real rate of returns and risk premiums – from observed prices of nominal and indexed bonds in the United Kingdom from 1983 to 2000. The estimation uses an asset pricing framework based on a habit consumption model together with a joint formulation of consumption growth and inflation. Nominal yields carry a time-varying inflation premium that is significant throughout the period, increasing in the bond's maturity and contributing up to 25 basis points to yearly nominal yields. The analysis allows the extraction of the ex ante real rate from indexed bonds by properly taking into account both the incomplete indexation on these instruments and the inflation premium embedded in the nominal bonds.     

An event study of institutions and currency crises

We use event study methodology to examine the behavior of seven institutional variables eighteen months prior to and after a currency crisis. Our data on institutions include bureaucratic quality, corruption, ethnic tensions, external conflict, internal conflict, government stability, and law and order over the period 1984-2002. Our country coverage includes forty industrial, emerging market, and developing economies for various regions of the world. The graphical event study shows that there are many instances where institutions are weaker in periods before and after a currency crisis than during tranquil periods. The evidence is most compelling for government stability, law and order, bureaucratic quality, and corruption. We also test for differences in the mean values of institutional variables in turbulent periods around a crisis event and tranquil, non-crisis periods. Results from our tests generally complement evidence from the event study.     

Extreme events: a study of small oil and gas firms

The oil and gas industry is subject to different types of risks, many of which have the potential to generate extreme results. Classifying extreme events as global, industry specific and firm specific, we use a Bayesian probability model and the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model to evaluate the impact of disclosure of extreme events on returns and return volatilities. The results suggest political events have more of a pronounced effect compared to those classified as economic events. The overall effects are more pronounced at the global and firm‐level classifications. At the firm level, extreme economic events have a more significant impact than political extreme events.     

The interaction between accounting and real earnings management using simultaneous equation model with panel data

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - The aim of this paper is to examine the association between accounting-based earnings management and real activities manipulation in a weaker...     

Semiparametric estimation of a characteristic-based factor model of common stock returns

We introduce an alternative version of the Fama–French three-factor model of stock returns together with a new estimation methodology. We assume that the factor betas in the model are smooth nonlinear functions of observed security characteristics. We develop an estimation procedure that combines nonparametric kernel methods for constructing mimicking portfolios with parametric nonlinear regression to estimate factor returns and factor betas simultaneously. The methodology is applied to US common stocks and the empirical findings compared to those of Fama and French.     

Bayesian estimation of the stochastic volatility model with double exponential jumps

Review of Derivatives Research - This paper generalizes the stochastic volatility model to allow for the double exponential jumps. To derive the jumps and time-varying volatility in returns, we...     

Structural estimation of a principal-agent model: moral hazard in medical insurance

Despite the importance of principal-agent models in the development of modern economic theory, there are few estimations of these models. I recover the estimates of a principal-agent model and obtain an approximation to the optimal contract. The results show that out-of-pocket payments follow a concave profile with respect to costs of treatment. I estimate the welfare loss due to moral hazard, taking into account income effects. I also propose a new measure of moral hazard based on the conditional correlation between contractible and noncontractible variables.     

The nexus between financial integration and real economy: Solow-growth model concept

This paper aims to investigate the nexus between financial integration and the real economy in ASEAN + 3 economies based on the concept of Solow-Growth Model. The equity indices as a proxy for financial markets are collected from each ASEAN + 3 members and are segmented between two periods; before and after the financial cooperation agreement period. The finding presents several outcomes; 1) no cointegration nexus is found in the system during the pre-agreement periods; 2) the markets are found cointegrated during the post-agreement period, 3) financial integration is found to influence the real sectors of ASEAN + 3 economies. Finally, this study offers policy implications to improve financial integration for stabilizing the real economy.     

An event study analysis of international ventures between banks and insurance firms

The current study examines the effects on shareholders wealth as a result of the bank–insurance interface. Using a global sample of financial intermediaries and an event-study framework the findings reveal significant abnormal returns surrounding the announcement of bank–insurance ventures. A control sample using financial institutions that do not pursue bank–insurance deals shows negative abnormal returns with much higher magnitude in absolute terms. When the sample is separated on the basis of the bidder's nature, then bank-bidders earn significant positive returns, while the insurance-bidders experience significant losses. The analysis further unveils either statistically significant negative returns or insignificant values for bank–insurance divestments. Finally, profitability, size and functional diversification are all found significant in determining abnormal returns over various intervals.