Long-run returns following open market share repurchases

Past studies find abnormal returns to buying after repurchase program announcements. We analyze the profitability of trading after both program announcements and individual repurchase trade publication using different trading strategies – market and limit orders. The analysis of trades is possible because of a unique Canadian data set. The highest abnormal returns are earned by companies on their own repurchase trades which benefits the non-tendering shareholders. For the public investor, we find no strategies that, in practice, would earn abnormal returns to buying after program announcements. However, there is qualified evidence of abnormal returns to a limit order strategy following publication of individual repurchase trades.     

Managerial motivation and timing of open market share repurchases

There are two major mechanisms by which managers distribute cash to shareholders: through dividends and share repurchases. Historically, dividends have been the preferred method, but in recent years, share repurchases have become more popular, with more firms using repurchases than dividends to distribute cash. During the sample period of 2004–2006, 6.5 billion shares were repurchased for a total dollar volume amount of $222 billion. Using a unique dataset on actual monthly share repurchases, this paper investigates when and why managers repurchase shares in the open market. The paper finds evidence that firms which make repurchases are jointly timing their repurchases to perceived undervaluation and the presence of discretionary cash flow. In addition, the paper finds evidence which supports that (1) firms in competitive industries tend to repurchase less, (2) firms tend to substitute repurchases for anti-takeover provision adoption, and (3) firms attempt to manage earnings upward through the use of repurchases.     

Cash holdings and share repurchases: International evidence

In this study, we examine the patterns and determinants of share repurchases using firm-level data from seven major countries—Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S.—over the period 1998–2006. We find that while non-U.S. firms do not repurchase shares as much as U.S. firms do, both U.S. and non-U.S. firms display a common set of share repurchase behaviors. For example, across countries, firms use share repurchases as a flexible means of distributing cash. More importantly, large cash holdings are significantly associated with the amount of share repurchases in all countries. There is evidence that large cash holdings held by repurchasing firms represent excess cash. Firms tend to experience substantial increases in cash holdings prior to share repurchase as a result of reductions in capital expenditures. Overall, our evidence lends support to two hypotheses: (i) firms discharge excess capital to reduce agency conflicts and (ii) firms use repurchases to distribute temporary cash flows.     

Do managers time the market? Evidence from open-market share repurchases

A contentious debate exists over whether executives possess market timing skills when announcing certain corporate transactions. Pseudo-market timing, however, has recently emerged as an important alternative hypothesis as to why the appearance of timing might be evident when, in fact, none exists. We reconsider this debate in the context of share repurchases. Consistent with prior studies, we also report evidence of abnormal stock performance following buyback announcements. Pseudo-market timing, however, does not appear to be a viable explanation. Our results are more consistent with the notion that managers possess timing ability, at least in the context of share repurchases.     

The accounting and market consequences of accelerated share repurchases

We evaluate the representational faithfulness of the accounting treatment of a recent and well-established type of structured transaction—accelerated share repurchases (ASRs). ASRs are popular because accretive earnings per share benefits are recognized immediately, while any gains or losses on the forward contract used to execute an ASR bypass income, and are reported directly in equity. We document lower value relevance for the liabilities of ASR companies compared with a size- and industry-matched sample. ERC tests also indicate a market discount for the earnings of ASR companies compared with the control sample. Finally, we document significant abnormal returns to a trading strategy based on unrealized gains or losses on ASR transactions. Our results indicate that the current accounting for ASRs does not result in representative reporting of these transactions. As a result, financial statement users might benefit from recognition of ASR elements in financial statements.     

Exchange rate exposure among European firms: evidence from France, Germany and the UK

We investigate the pre-Euro exposure to exchange rate changes of large firms in the UK, France and Germany. We find that the exchange rate sensitivity is considerably stronger than previously thought. In all three countries, firms typically gain value when their local currency depreciates against the US dollar, yet most UK firms lose value when sterling depreciates against the European currency unit. We also document the existence of an intriguing intervalling effect in the measurement of exchange rate exposure, which suggests that share prices might exhibit a delayed response to information, and prevents us from making robust generalizations concerning other exchange rate sensitivities.     

Executive compensation, share repurchases and investment expenditures: econometric evidence from US firms

This paper modeled the dynamic inter-relationships between average salary, bonus, and stock options granted to top executives of 700 US firms using a merged ExecuComp and Compustat database. The effects of stock options granted and exercised on firms’ share repurchases and research and development and investment expenditures were investigated, taking into account simultaneity and distributional misspecification aspects. First, firms’ total assets, intangible assets, market-to-book value, and share repurchases were positively associated with the values of stock options granted. Second, stock options exercised in the previous year were significant predictors of share repurchases indicating that firms avoided dilution of earnings per share. Third, share repurchases and stock options granted were negatively associated with expenditures on research and development and long-term investments. Overall, the results suggest that high levels of stock options granted to executives and share repurchases are unlikely to have beneficial effects for raising future productivity.     

Taxes,tenders and the design of Australian off‐market share repurchases

In designing off‐market (self‐tender offer) share repurchases, Australian companies must consider the resulting potential tax benefits for different investor groups with consequent effects upon the supply of stock tendered by holders and the ultimate tender outcome. We develop and estimate a model of the stock supply curve that demonstrates less than perfect elasticity and incomplete tax arbitrage arising from ‘participation risk’ for potential arbitrageurs. We are able to estimate the extent of disequilibrium in prices involved in fixed‐price repurchases and show that it is substantial. We show that Australian Tax Office restrictions on the tender price range for Dutch auctions have meant that non‐participating shareholders have foregone some potential benefits through the transfer of tax benefits to (primarily institutional, low tax rate) successful tender participants. The results provide support for legislative changes proposed in 2009 (but not implemented as of mid 2011), which removed constraints on the allowable range of repurchase prices.     

Trading strategies based on past returns: evidence from Germany

Among the various strategies studied in this paper, only momentum investing appears to earn persistently nonzero returns: From 1965 to 2014, the classical momentum strategy based on performance over the previous 2–12 months earned an average return of 1.57% per month (excluding microcap stocks and value-weighted returns). In the most recent 10-year period, this return was even larger—2.27%—which is much larger than in the USA. However, profitability net of transaction costs is weak because the strategy involves trading in disproportionately small stocks with high transaction costs, something that is particularly true for the loser portfolio. A strategy that concentrates only on the winner portfolio and thus avoids potential problems associated with (short) selling the costly loser portfolio appears to earn strong and persistently abnormal profits, even after transaction costs.     

Idiosyncratic volatility and equity returns: UK evidence

The proposition that idiosyncratic volatility may matter in asset pricing is currently a topic of research and controversy. Using data from the UK market we examine the predictive ability of various measures of idiosyncratic risk and provide evidence which suggests that: (a) it is the idiosyncratic volatility of small capitalization stocks that matters for asset pricing and (b) that small stocks idiosyncratic volatility predicts the small capitalization premium component of market returns and is unrelated to either the market or the value premium. The predictive power of the aggregate idiosyncratic volatility of small stocks remains intact even after we control for the possible proxying effects of business cycle fluctuations and liquidity and is robust across time and different econometric specifications.     

Market conditions,risk, and real estate portfolio returns: Some empirical evidence

This research examined the return behavior of a portfolio of American and New York Stock Exchange real estate firms. A dummy variable procedure was used to test for excess return and/or change in risk behavior across market conditions. The findings were as follows. First, no excess return was found for any model specification. Second, no changes in beta were found using the benchmark approach. The beta shifted when an up market was defined as a nonrecessionary period; the beta behaved procyclically. However, the subperiod tests indicated that effect was transitory and period specific.     

Taxes,dividend yields and returns in the UK equity market

The higher rate of taxation on dividend income relative to capital gains has been offered as an explanation for the positive relation between stock returns and dividend yields among US firms. In the UK the relative tax rates are the reverse of those in the US. Thus, UK data provides an independent test of the tax-based approach to explaining the relation between stock returns and dividend yields. We find that high yielding stocks earn positive risk adjusted returns, whereas low yielding stocks earn negative risk adjusted returns. We also detect evidence of non-linearity in the performance of zero-dividend stocks. Controlling for firm size, seasonality and market risk we find a significant positive relation between dividend yields and returns. We conclude that the evidence is inconsistent with a tax-based explanation.     

Markowitz efficiency and size effect: evidence from the UK stock market

Academics and practitioners have frequently debated the relationship between market capitalization and expected return. We apply the Markowitz efficient frontier approach to develop a portfolio performance measure that compares the return of a portfolio to its optimal return, using data from the UK stock market over the period 1985–2012. Our results show that there is a negative relationship between portfolio size and portfolio return during the period under study. When comparing actual portfolio return with achievable return for the same level of risk, we find that as the portfolio size expands, underperformance of the portfolio increases, i.e. the larger the portfolio size, the greater the underperformance. This indicates that Markowitz efficiency is difficult to achieve, particularly in large portfolios. Changing model parameters leads to alternative efficient frontiers that impact upon the measurement of performance. However, the use of alternative efficient frontiers does not affect our result of the size effect on the relative performance of portfolios. Our study shows that the size effect is present over the full period. Our findings also suggest that the excess returns found in small portfolios are likely to be associated with higher levels of diversifiable risk in comparison with larger portfolios. Furthermore, in contrast to other studies, we find no evidence to support the size reversal effect in the data.     

Liquidity and stock returns in pure order-driven markets: evidence from the Australian stock market

This paper examines the relationship between liquidity and stock returns in the pure order-driven stock market of Australia. The bid-ask spread, turnover rate, and amortized spread are used as proxies for liquidity. In addition to liquidity, other factors that have been found to influence stock returns, such as beta and size, are also considered. Seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) and the cross-sectionally correlated timewise autoregressive (CSCTA) model form the methodological basis for this research. A small liquidity premium is found in the Australian market, which persists for the entire year. There is also strong evidence of a negative size effect.     

Common stock repurchases: An analysis of returns to bondholders and stockholders

This paper examines the effects of a common stock repurchase on the values of the repurchasing firm's common stock, debt and preferred stock, and attempts to identify the dominant factors underlying the observed value changes. The evidence indicates that significant increases in firm values occur within one day of a stock repurchase announcement. These value changes appear to be due principally to an information signal from the repurchasing firm. Common stockholders are the beneficiaries of virtually all of the value increments, but no class of securities examined declines in value as a result of the repurchase.     

The empirical relationship between risk and return: evidence from the UK stock market

Previous studies reach no consensus on the relationship between risk and return using data from one market. We argue that the world market factor should not be ignored in assessing the risk-return relationship in a partially integrated market. Applying a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) model to the weekly stock index returns from the UK and the world market, we document a significant positive relationship between stock returns and the variance of returns in the UK stock market after controlling for the covariance of the UK and the world market return. In contrast, conventional univariate GARCH-M models typically fail to detect this relationship. Nonnested hypothesis tests supplemented with other commonly used model selection criteria unambiguously demonstrate that our bivariate GARCH-M model is more likely to be the true model for UK stock market returns than univariate GARCH-M models. Our results have implications for empirical assessments of the risk-return relationship, expected return estimation, and international diversification.     

The price adjustment and lead-lag relations between stock returns: microstructure evidence from the Taiwan stock market

This paper investigates the price adjustment and lead-lag relations between returns on five size-based portfolios in the Taiwan stock market. It finds evidence that the price adjustment of small-stock portfolios is not slower than that of large-stock portfolios. Additionally, limited evidence supports a positive leading role of large-stock portfolio returns over small-stock portfolio returns. These two findings are substantially different from the results of previous research on developed markets.     

The influence of earnings per share on capital issues: some evidence from UK companies

This paper investigates the simple hypothesis that when companies issue more capital, they have a tendency to select the type of capital, all other things being equal, which results in the higher short-term earnings per share (eps). The methodology employs probit analysis to test the hypothesis that the form of issue selected was that which gave the higher eps after controlling for other factors such as leverage and industry classification. The results lead us to conclude that there is evidence in capital issues of functional fixation on eps.     

EC Accounting Harmonisation: An Empirical Study of Measurement Practices in France,Germany and the UK

This research attempts to assess the extent to which accounting measurement practices in France, Germany and the UK are currently harmonised in the context of the major effort that has been made to promote EC accounting harmonisation. The statistical tests show that there are significant differences between France, Germany and the UK in respect of all the practices evaluated. Furthermore, the I-indices used to measure the overall level of international accounting harmony across the three countries indicate a wide and relatively low range of values.     

The extent of informational efficiency in the credit default swap market: evidence from post-earnings announcement returns

Under semi-strong market efficiency future returns are unpredictable from previously released information. We test the degree of semi-strong form market efficiency in the credit default swap (CDS) market by examining the relationship between subsequent CDS returns and previously announced quarterly earnings surprises and quarterly accruals, both of which have been the source of stock market anomalies. We conduct our analysis over three time periods: (1) before the credit crisis that spanned from July 2007 to June 2009, (2) during the credit crisis, and (3) after the credit crisis. Both before and after the credit crisis, the CDS market was efficient, exhibiting no systematic relation between subsequent CDS returns and previously announced accounting information. During the credit crisis, however, we find that both quarterly earnings surprises and quarterly accruals are associated with systematic patterns in subsequent CDS returns that are consistent with underreaction to both measures. In the latter stages of the crisis, the pattern reverses, consistent with the CDS market overreacting to both measures although the overreaction is short-lived. Collectively, our results indicate that the CDS market is efficient during periods of relative economic stability but call into question its efficiency during less stable economic periods.