浅析“东盟方式”

东盟自成立以来,经过不断的发展,成为在东亚地区一体化程度最高的组织。"东盟方式"是对东南亚国家之间合作方式的一个总结,它为东盟的发展和壮大做出了巨大贡献。对它进行研究对于构建一种普适性的地区一体化理论具有重要意义,本文在考察东盟历史发展的基础上,对"东盟方式"的内涵、形成原因、主要特征及其意义做一个系统分析。     

Finance and long‐term development issues in Southeast Asia

This article analyses Southeast Asian finance over more than a century in light of three issues: the realisation of finance‐leading development; indigenous entrepreneurship; and effective credit provision in rural areas. Colonial currency board systems and non‐interventionist government characterised finance in pre‐World War II Southeast Asia. There was decisive change after independence to a variety of state‐directed, or indeed socialist, attempts to overcome unfavourable pre‐war development legacies. Despite these departures, the article finds that throughout Southeast Asian history, finance rarely, if ever, led development. Today, indigenous entrepreneurship, explored for Malaysia, is generally either bolstered by political patrons or even entirely substituted for by state finance. More positively, market‐aware state initiatives in microfinance may offer a realistic institutional alternative to rural Southeast Asia's historic reliance on informal finance.     

Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

This article identifies six fundamental indicators that might predict a financial crisis similar to the one that affected the emerging markets of Southeast Asia. Our empirical analysis shows that the 1997 Asian crisis could have been predicted. Probit estimation reveals that a small number of common indicators can forecast a financial crisis well. The estimation gives estimates that are robust to either cross-section or panel data. We suggest an aggregate indicator that combines all the individual indicators and calculates the optimal thresholds for the indicators. This aggregate indicator has similar predictive properties and reduces the calculations to determine the probability of crisis.     

建设印度洋国际大通道发挥面向印度洋桥头堡作用

云南省是我国唯一能从陆路通过东南亚直接沟通印度洋沿岸国家的省份。具有独特的区位优势。云南省应积极推进印度洋国际大通道的建设,发挥面向印度洋桥头堡作用,这也是应对国际金融危机,实现经济社会平稳较快发展的重大举措。     

Globalization, industrialization and urbanization in Pre-World War II Southeast Asia

This article uses new data to analyze the impact on Southeast Asian urbanization of globalization and industrialization in the world economy's core countries between the 1870s and World War II. Dramatic falls in transport costs and free trade, enforced, if necessary, by colonial rule, combined to open vast frontier areas throughout Southeast Asia to global commerce and create a handful of large urban centres. These cities, through linking Southeast Asian primary commodity exporters to world markets, grew predominantly as part of the global economy. Our econometric analysis shows that measures of globalization — in particular industrial production in the world core and international transport costs — are much better predictors of the size of Southeast Asia's main cities than domestic factors such as total population, GDP per capita, land area or government expenditure.     

北部湾(广西)经济区引进外资金融机构探讨

广西区政府在2006年3月做出了加快北部湾(广西)经济区开放开发的重大战略决策,该地区是"中国——东盟博览会"永久举办地——南宁市的所在地,与东盟各国毗邻,水路、陆路和航空交通十分便利,有着得天独厚的地缘优势,但是随着该地区经济发展的加速,对金融支持的需求量越来越大,同时为了提高本地区的金融环境服务水平,很有必要引进外资金融机构进驻。本文在分析目前广西引进外资金融机构存在不足的基础上,探讨一些有利于加快本地区引进外资金融机构的建议。     

亚洲金融危机十年祭

1997年7月亚洲爆发了一场严重的金融危机,直到1999年才基本结束。从危机爆发至今已有十年。虽然,这些年对亚洲金融危机有各种各样的讨论,但并没有从最深层次的角度找到其爆发的根本原因。而且,当今世界在金融领域仍存在着许多不稳定因素。因此,本文力图从经济利益关系角度,结合东南亚各国的实际,对1997年亚洲金融危机进行新的反思,以对我国进一步开放金融市场提供一些有益的参考。     

Does Competition Lead Firms to Bribery? A Firm-Level Study in Southeast Asia

Economists have paid close attention to economic development in Southeast Asia, where corruption and bribery are believed to be ubiquitous. In this article, we study the reasons why firms bribe. Specifically, we study the effects of the competition encountered by Southeast Asian firms on their bribing behavior. This article focuses on two types of bribing behavior: (1) informal payments given to the government so that it will ignore rule violations and (2) informal payments to the government to secure a contract. Using firm-level and country-level data from Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam between 2009 and 2014, we find that the market competition will increase bribing behavior, while political competition within the country will reduce the likelihood of bribing.     

城市化发展对东南亚粮食安全的研究

本文通过对东南亚城市化发展和粮食安全状况的研究,分析东南亚的城市发展对粮食生产供给和需求的影响,并对我国如何推进城市化健康发展,确保粮食安全提出几点思考。     

"东盟共同体"建设面临的挑战与前景

东南亚是一个多样性、发展的不平衡性十分突出的地区。东盟要在这样的地区建立一个以经济合作、政治-安全合作和社会文化合作为核心的"东盟共同体",无疑面临着巨大困难。本文认为:东盟的共同体建设是"在多样化中求统一",尽管面临着许多困难和矛盾,但各国之间合作发展的"统一性"是存在的。     

西部地区金融抑制的制度分析

简要疏理和评述近年来我国区域金融与经济发展关系的实证研究现状,重点对1997年亚洲金融危机后我国金融市场化改革进入新的阶段,西部地区普遍存在的独特金融抑制形式和影响进行制度分析,透析了我国现行的金融市场化改革与西部经济中相关配套制度供给不足而带来高额的交易成本,并基于上述分析提出了西部地区金融改革的路径选择和制度创新的思路,尝试构建适合西部经济发展的金融制度和组织结构。     

An East Asian paradigm?

The World Bank's 1993 East Asian Miracle report proposed two models of East Asian Development, one based on the Japanese economy, the other on the more recent miracle economies of Southeast Asia. The latter pursued open-market and investment policies compatible with Anglo-American economic norms, while Japan and its coterie (South Korea and Taiwan) forged industrial policy regimes with high levels of government intervention and protection. Japan takes a different view of Southeast Asian success—as a combination of conscious emulation of Japan and concentrated Japanese foreign direct investment, aid, and regional industrial strategy. This article explores the tension between the World Bank thesis and the Japanese view, embodied in a growth metaphor called flying geese. The author concludes that Japan has been far more reactive and opportunistic than the flying geese metaphor suggests, but that this paradigm has a profound influence on Japanese government and corporate strategy in Asia.     

Japan's Policy Stance on East Asian Neo-Regionalism: From Being a “Reluctant”, to Becoming a “Proactive” State

Abstract

This article is a theoretically grounded empirical contribution aimed at shedding light on Japan's policy stance on East Asian neo-regionalism. It aims to examine the recent region-building process in East Asia. The dynamics in East Asia suggest that regional institutionalization, brought about by norm diffusion based on the idea of neo-regionalism, is likely to follow a progressive and evolutionary trajectory through the institutionalization of the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN)?+?3 (South Korea, Japan and China). It provides a wide spectrum of regional-integrationist perspectives in order to offer as full a picture as possible of Japan's role in promoting regional integration in East Asia. The key finding of this article is that Japan has changed from a being “reluctant”, to becoming a “proactive” state in the context of regional collaboration in East Asia.     

Financial Development in Asia: some analytical issues

Twenty-two years ago, Ronald McKinnon and Edward Shaw highlighted some of the deleterious effects of financial repression-interest rate ceilings, high reserve requirements, directed credit policies, and discriminatory taxation of financial intermediaries. Both books presented some theoretical underpinnings for policy recommendations, based in large part on reforms in Taiwan (early 1950s) and Korea (mid-l960s), that were already in vogue. Since 1973 there has been a literature explosion in the field of financial development, much of it focused on the Asian experience. This article constitutes the third in a series of articles which surveys the literature on financial development in Asia for the period 1988–94.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Review in this article: Taiwanese Firms in Southeast Asia: Networking across Borders edited by Tain‐Jy Chen Southeast Asia's Misunderstood Miracle: Industrial Policy and Economic Development in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia by Jomo K. S. et al.     

Imagined Peasants – Production and Markets in Rural Asia

Books reviewed in this article:
R.E.(Robert Edward) Elson, The end of the peasantry in Southeast Asia: a social and economic history of peasant livelihood, 1800–1900s
Yiping Huang, Agricultural Reform in China: Getting Institutions Right. Trade and Development Series     

中国与东南亚国家吸收FDI相互影响关系的实证研究

中国与东南亚国家在吸收FDI方面是否存在着竞争关系是东南亚国家普遍关注的一个问题,本文运用格兰杰因果检验及协整方法对中国与东南亚国家吸收FDI之间的相互影响关系进行了实证研究,结果表明,中国吸收FDI对东南亚国家吸收FDI负面影响较小,中国吸收FDI的激增在一定程度上还促进了部分国家的FDI流入。     

东南亚华商企业战略转换的影响因素及动力机制

为了深入理解东南亚华商企业为应对国际金融危机而采取的战略转换,对其战略转换的影响因素及动力机制进行分析十分必要。应用PEST分析法得到政治法律因素、经济因素、社会文化因素和技术因素等外部影响因素。内部影响因素包括:人才或人力资源、企业绩效、组织结构和管理系统、企业文化。东南亚华商企业战略转换的动力机制由组织结构机制、质量机制、技术机制、客户驱动机制和竞争机制五个机制构成。     

Asia's contribution to global rebalancing

Developing Asia remains at the core of global payment imbalances. While the geographical concentration of current account imbalances is significant—with the People's Republic of China accounting for the lion's share of the region's current account surplus—how Asia contributes to global rebalancing also depends critically on the newly industrialising economies and larger Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. Given the region's huge diversity, the necessary national macroeconomic and structural policies will vary significantly across Asia's emerging economies. Whereas near‐term rebalancing efforts will be driven primarily by macroeconomic and exchange rate policies, structural reforms are essential for boosting domestic and regional demand as sources of economic growth over medium to long‐term. We argue that regional rebalancing will depend critically on the adoption of deeper and more comprehensive structural reforms and further trade liberalisation to unlock the potential of strong domestic and regional spending—thus reducing Asia's high dependence on extra‐regional demand. Priority policies should include infrastructure spending, competition, trade, financial development, investment, immigration, and other social policies to reduce national savings.     

Patterns and determinants of intra-industry trade in Asia

Intra-industry trade (IIT) has gained in importance across Asia as a result of the rapid growth of Asian economies and their key role in the international fragmentation of production. This paper examines the level of IIT for 22 countries in East, Southeast, South, and Central Asia in 2003. IIT is measured as a multilateral trade-weighted index and is reported for ten different categories of goods in the primary and secondary sectors. In addition, the determinants of IIT are investigated using a Tobit regression model. The results indicate that ASEAN and the high-income countries in East Asia exhibit the highest levels of IIT, followed closely by China and India. R&D spending, openness, and a higher share of manufactured exports were found to promote IIT, while geographical distance and the difference in economic size had an adverse effect, especially for manufactured goods. The ASEAN free trade area was most prominently associated with IIT across all SITC categories. Central and South Asian regional trade agreements had a positive influence on IIT in primary products.