Odd‐lot Costs and Taxation Influences on Stock Dividend Ex‐dates

Abstract:   Past research has revealed significant abnormal ex‐date returns for stock dividends even though the ex‐date is known in advance and the distribution contains no new information. Various researchers have suggested that the higher transaction cost of selling odd‐lot share parcels compared to round‐lot share parcels is a key driver in the abnormal returns. However, no study to date has directly compared the ex‐date price reaction of stock dividends distributed when odd‐lot transaction costs were charged to those issued when odd‐lot costs were not evident. As odd‐lot trade costs were eliminated from the New Zealand Stock Exchange on 1 October, 1991, the New Zealand market provides a unique opportunity to directly test the role, if any, that odd‐lot transactions costs have in explaining stock dividend ex‐date returns. We find that prior to October 1991 stock dividend ex‐dates exhibit significantly positive returns, however, we do not find any significant ex‐date return once the higher odd‐lot transaction costs were removed. The New Zealand market also enables us to examine an imputation tax based argument of the ex‐date price reaction and we find evidence that imputation tax credits have a value greater than zero.     

EVIDENCE OF A RELATION BETWEEN STOCK PRICE REACTIONS AROUND CASH DIVIDEND CHANGES AND YIELDS

Here, the relation between stock price reactions to announced dividend changes and the yields of the underlying securities is examined. A significant positive (negative) relationship is detected between announcement date returns and yield for dividend increases (decreases) even after controlling for the magnitude of the dividend change. Price reactions associated with dividend increases vary directly with the change in yield and, on average, low-yielding companies do not experience abnormal returns when they increase their dividends. Implied in these results is that the information conveyed through dividend changes varies with the yield of the underlying security and the market response is a function of factors beyond the pure information effect.     

Valuation Effects of Greek Stock Dividend Distributions

This study analyses the price reaction to stock dividend distributions by firms listed on the Athens Stock Exchange on both the announcement and the ex‐dividend day. It also analyses earnings per share, dividends per share and trading volume in the pre‐ and post‐announcement periods. The findings show statistically insignificant abnormal returns on both the announcement and the ex‐dividend day. The analysis does not reveal any significant change in earnings per share and dividends per share, but it does reveal a significant decline in the market‐adjusted trading volume in the post dividend period. The findings, based on a different institutional environment, expand the empirical evidence on the value effects of stock dividends.     

The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns

A number of financial variables have been shown to be effective in explaining the time-series of aggregate equity returns in both the UK and the US. These include, inter alia , the equity dividend yield, the spread between the yields on long and short government bonds, and the lagged equity return. Recently, however, the ratio between the long government bond yield and the equity dividend yield – the gilt-equity yield ratio – has emerged as a variable that has considerable explanatory power for UK equity returns. This paper compares the predictive ability of the gilt-equity yield ratio with these other variables for UK and US equity returns, providing evidence on both in-sample and out-of-sample performance. For UK monthly returns, it is shown that while the dividend yield has substantial in-sample explanatory power, this is not matched by out-of sample forecast accuracy. The gilt-equity yield ratio, in contrast, performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Although the predictability of US monthly equity returns is much lower than for the UK, a similar result emerges, with the gilt-equity yield ratio dominating the other variables in terms of both in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecast performance. The gilt-equity yield ratio is also shown to have substantial predictive ability for long horizon returns.     

The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns

A number of financial variables have been shown to be effective in explaining the time-series of aggregate equity returns in both the UK and the US. These include, inter alia , the equity dividend yield, the spread between the yields on long and short government bonds, and the lagged equity return. Recently, however, the ratio between the long government bond yield and the equity dividend yield – the gilt-equity yield ratio – has emerged as a variable that has considerable explanatory power for UK equity returns. This paper compares the predictive ability of the gilt-equity yield ratio with these other variables for UK and US equity returns, providing evidence on both in-sample and out-of-sample performance. For UK monthly returns, it is shown that while the dividend yield has substantial in-sample explanatory power, this is not matched by out-of sample forecast accuracy. The gilt-equity yield ratio, in contrast, performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Although the predictability of US monthly equity returns is much lower than for the UK, a similar result emerges, with the gilt-equity yield ratio dominating the other variables in terms of both in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecast performance. The gilt-equity yield ratio is also shown to have substantial predictive ability for long horizon returns.     

The Market Value of UK Dividends From Shares With Differing Entitlements

Abstract:   This paper determines the market value of dividends in the UK during periods before and after 1997. Previous studies, which use the ex‐dividend day method, tend to provide noisy and potentially biased measures of dividend value. We estimate the value of dividends from the prices of shares that are identical except for their dividend entitlements, and are traded concurrently (within the same hour). We argue that our estimates of dividend value are the cleanest yet available for the UK. Our evidence suggests that ex‐dividend day estimates are biased downwards, but that this bias may be mitigated by the use of robust regression. Dividend values are heterogeneous and are not explained by the tax‐clientele hypothesis.     

The Interest Rate Risk Exposure of Financial Intermediaries: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence

The paper surveys current and previous research on financial institutions' interest rate risk exposure. The implications of such exposure are discussed and motivating insights are emphasized. Various theoretical frameworks and models are presented. For each one an overview of the studies and any relationship to each other is provided. In a cross‐industry analysis, other idiosyncratic risk factors are considered and their importance is delineated. A number of empirical relations are established. More specifically, there is an inverse relationship between interest rate changes and common stock returns of financial institutions. The intermediaries' apparent yield sensitivity is mainly attributed to the duration gap inherent in their balance sheet structure. Furthermore, the aforesaid equity sensitivity due to other possible dynamics such as dividend yield, unanticipated inflation and regulatory lags is also considered. Changes in economic regimes have altered volatility in market yields with a subsequent effect, positive or negative, on financial intermediaries' equity returns. The issue of the risk‐return compensation is further analyzed, and findings suggest that the interest rate risk is priced by capital markets. Finally, a few other issues are identified as avenues for future research.     

Firm Size and the Information Content of Annual Earnings Announcements: Australian Evidence

Abstract:   We investigate the effect of firm size on the market's short‐window response to annual earnings announcements for a large sample of Australian listed companies. Our research design involves regressions of unexpected earnings against unexpected returns. Non‐linearity in the returns‐earnings relationship is incorporated and other factors known to affect the response to earnings announcements are controlled for. Contrary to prior US research, our results show that firm size has either no effect on the response to earnings announcements (3 day window) or the response is significantly stronger for larger firms (twenty‐one day window). The information content of earnings announcements is present across firm size categories but the nature of the response differs with firm size and context.     

Real‐Time Risk Pricing Over the Business Cycle: Some Evidence for the UK

Abstract:   The fully‐revised data typically utilized in empirical research do not reflect the true information available to financial market participants at the time of their decision‐making. This paper uses a new real‐time macroeconomic dataset to appraise the relative importance of different vintages of data on economic variables as determinants of UK stock returns using the framework of Arbitrage Pricing Theory. We find that two factors influence expected stock returns, namely unanticipated inflation and economic uncertainty, but only when measured in real‐time. Moreover, their pricing influence is only present during phases of the business cycle when their associated risks are at their most prevalent.     

A New Application of Sustainable Growth: A Multi‐Dimensional Framework for Evaluating the Long Run Performance of Bank Mergers

Abstract:   We study the mergers of US publicly traded bank holding companies during 1987–2000 and find that the acquiring firm's sustainable growth rate is an important determinant of the cross‐sectional variation in the merged entity's long‐term operating and stock performance. The most economically significant determinants of the merged bank's abnormal stock return performance are the acquiring bank's estimated sustainable growth rate prior to the acquisition, as well as post‐acquisition changes in this growth rate, and the bank's dividend payout ratio. Our findings are robust even after controlling for several potentially confounding factors.     

Dividend Stability, Dividend Yield and Stock Returns: UK Evidence

This paper establishes an empirical role for two measures of dividend stability (as a proxy for dividend policy) in explaining UK stock returns. There is little systematic empirical evidence concerning the relation between dividend stability, dividend yield and stock returns despite the fact that a variety of theoretical models point to dividend policy as an important stock attribute. Here we construct two definitions of dividend stability, one of which involves dividend cuts, and use a sample of all listed UK firms from 1975 to 1997 to explore the relationship between stock returns and a variety of characteristics, including dividend stability. We find an inverse correlation between the stability of past dividend policy and systematic risk. Both stability measures have explanatory power over returns, but this is concentrated in January.     

Dividend Stability, Dividend Yield and Stock Returns: UK Evidence

This paper establishes an empirical role for two measures of dividend stability (as a proxy for dividend policy) in explaining UK stock returns. There is little systematic empirical evidence concerning the relation between dividend stability, dividend yield and stock returns despite the fact that a variety of theoretical models point to dividend policy as an important stock attribute. Here we construct two definitions of dividend stability, one of which involves dividend cuts, and use a sample of all listed UK firms from 1975 to 1997 to explore the relationship between stock returns and a variety of characteristics, including dividend stability. We find an inverse correlation between the stability of past dividend policy and systematic risk. Both stability measures have explanatory power over returns, but this is concentrated in January.     

The Information Signaling Hypothesis of Dividends: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests

This paper uses cointegration and causality tests to study the temporal behavior of dividends and earnings at the individual firm level. We find that, for a sample of 143 non‐utility firms, approximately one‐fifth of the firms exhibits a temporal relationship between dividends and earnings that is consistent with the information signaling hypothesis of dividends. In the case of 72 utilities, about a third exhibit dividend policies that are consistent with the signaling notion of dividends. Further examination of firm characteristic differences between signaling and non‐signaling firms shows that, in the case of non‐utility firms, signaling firms tend to be smaller, have a lower growth rate of total assets, and have a higher leverage ratio. In the case of utilities, we find no major differences in firm characteristics between signaling and non‐signaling firms.     

Signalling and the Long‐run Performance of Spanish Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)

Abstract:   Academic research into firms that have gone public has focused on the study of two anomalies: initial underpricing and long‐run underperformance. We analyse Spanish Initial Public Offerings to provide additional evidence on the long‐run performance of IPOs and its relationship with initial underpricing. Results reveal the existence of negative long‐run abnormal stock returns, in line with the international literature. Long‐run performance presents a positive relationship with underpricing and the volume of funds obtained in seasoned offerings, in consonance with the predictions of Allen and Faulhaber (1989) , Welch (1989) and Grinblatt and Hwang (1989) .     

Similarly traded securities: Greek common vs. preferred stock

This paper examines the price spread between voting (common) and non‐voting (preferred) stocks during the period 1990–95 for a sample of 55 Greek companies. Because in Greece preferred stocks are not essentially different from common stocks, a number of hypotheses were tested to explain the observed differences. The data reveal an average spread of 27.5% for the entire period which, however, varies across years considerably. In cross‐sectional regressions it was found that the volatility of common stock returns, the liquidity of common shares relative to preferred shares, the ownership concentration, and the minimum dividend yield guaranteed to preferred stockholders explain a significant portion of the spread.     

The Impact on UK Acquirers of Domestic, Cross‐border, Public and Private Acquisitions

Abstract:   We examine the announcement and post‐acquisition share returns of UK acquirers in over 4,000 acquisitions of domestic, cross‐border, public and private targets. Domestic public acquisitions result in negative announcement and post‐acquisition returns, whilst cross‐border public acquisitions result in zero announcement returns and negative post‐acquisition returns. In contrast, both domestic and cross‐border private acquisitions result in positive announcement returns and zero post‐acquisition returns. The main differences between private and public acquisitions are that glamour acquirers underperform in public acquisitions but not in private acquisitions, and that acquirers using noncash methods of payment underperform in domestic public acquisitions but not in domestic private acquisitions. Overall, cross‐border acquisitions result in lower announcement and long run returns than domestic acquisitions. In cross‐border acquisitions, those involving high‐tech firms perform relatively well, as do those with low national cultural differences.     

Dividend Yields and Stock Returns: Evidence of Time Variation between Bull and Bear Markets

This study documents persistent shifts in the relationship between stock returns and dividend yields over bull and bear markets. The shift in this relationship appears as a separate effect, distinct from the January effect, and after controlling for firm size and systematic risk. After controlling for these other factors, dividend yield is positively related to return during bear markets but negatively related to return during bull markets. This time-varying relationship between dividend yield and stock return helps to explain the anomalous results of earlier studies.     

Stock returns,dividend yield,and book-to-market ratio

A dividend yield model has been widely used in previous research that relates stock market valuations to cash flow fundamentals. Given controversies about using dividends as a proxy for cash flows, a loglinear book-to-market model has recently been proposed. However, these models rely on the assumption that dividend yield and book-to-market ratio are both stationary, and empirical evidence for this is, at best, mixed. We develop a new model, the loglinear cointegration model, that explains future profitability and excess stock returns in terms of a linear combination of log book-to-market ratio and log dividend yield. The loglinear cointegration model performs better than the log dividend yield model and the log book-to-market model in terms of cross-equation restriction tests and forecasting performance comparisons. The superior performance of the loglinear cointegration model suggests that the linear combination may be a better indicator of intrinsic fundamentals than the dividend yield or the book-to-market ratio separately.     

On the Predictability of Japanese Stock Returns Using Dividend Yield

The aim of this paper is to provide a critical and comprehensive reexamination of empirical evidence on the ability of the dividend yield to predict Japanese stock returns. Our empirical results suggest that in general, the predictability is weak. However, (1) if the bubble economy period (1986–1998), during which dividend yields were persistently lower than the historical average, is excluded from the sample, and (2) if positive autocorrelation in monthly aggregate returns is taken into account, there is some evidence that the log dividend yield is indeed useful in forecasting future stock returns. More specifically, the log dividend yield contributes to predicting monthly stock returns in the sample after 1990 and when lagged stock returns are included simultaneously.     

Operating Performance and Stock Returns of Firms Calling Convertible Preferred Stocks

Abstract:   Using methodologies developed by Barber and Lyon (1996 and 1997 ), we examine the long‐run operating performance and stock returns of firms around in‐the‐money calls of convertible preferred stock. Our study intends to be a direct test of the hypothesis that managers call in‐the‐money convertibles when they view a decline in the firms' performance. We find no evidence that calling firms underperform non‐calling benchmark firms. On the contrary, we find mild evidence that the post‐call operating performance of calling firms is better than a carefully selected group of benchmark firms and call firms' post‐call stock returns are no worse than benchmark firms.