Cost of capital and valuation in the public and private sectors: Tax,risk and debt capacity

Cost of capital and valuation differ in the private and public sectors, because taxes are a cost to the private sector but are only a transfer to the public sector. We show how to transform the after-tax private sector cost of capital into its pre-tax equivalent, for comparison with the public sector cost of capital. We establish the existence of a tax induced wedge between these two costs of capital. The wedge introduces a preference on the part of the private sector for assets with rapid tax depreciation, high debt capacity and low risk. We show that, in circumstances where an asset has identical public and private sector valuation in the absence of taxes, the tax induced difference in valuation is identical to the change in government tax receipts that results from having the asset owned by the private rather than the public sector. We provide some examples of distortions that result from failure to adjust for changes in tax revenues, and show how to effect such adjustment.     

Die prämienbegünstigte Zukunftsvorsorge in Österreich

Due to the predictable demographic developments and the budgetary restrictions in the Stability Pact of the Treaty of Maastricht the big pay-as-you-go public sector pension systems in many western European countries seem to have reached their limits. Since 2003 the Austrian government has put its trust in strengthening the third pillar of the pension system and supports private provision with state-aided premiums. In this paper this state-aided private provision system with its capital guarantee is presented, evaluated and analyzed. Moreover we point out the dilemma of this pension provision product: in the case of low asset returns the state premiums will be eroded by the expenses of the issuers. Furthermore it will be clarified that the issuers, in contrast to the clients, have no interest in investing in volatile assets since in that case the probability of exercising the capital guarantee will increase.     

A production-based model for the term structure

This paper considers the term structure of interest rates implied by a production-based asset pricing model in which the fundamental drivers are investment in equipment and structures as well as inflation. The model matches the average yield curve up to five-year maturity almost perfectly. Longer term yields are roughly as volatile as in the data. The model also generates time-varying bond risk premiums. In particular, when running Fama-Bliss regressions of excess returns on forward premiums, the model produces slope coefficients of roughly half the size of the empirical counterparts. Closed-form expressions highlight the importance of the capital depreciation rates for interest rate dynamics.     

Securitization in Public Sector Finance

Already commonplace in the private sector, the securitization of future income streams is now being promoted in the public sector as a means of accessing investment capital. This article reports on a British university's securitization of 30 years' future rents on its student accommodation. Although the securitization made it possible to refurbish the residences, it has turned out to be costly in other respects. The authors conclude that investment returns in the public sector will rarely be sufficient to cover the finance costs of securitization; that the loss of the securitized income in labour-intensive public services is virtually certain to cost jobs; and that the accounting treatment of securitization needs to incorporate a realistic calculation of the movements in effective debt. Finally the article recommends that the value for money of any proposed public sector securitization should be independently checked by comparing its total cost of capital with the returns on its proposed uses.     

农村人力资本投资结构与内生经济增长

本文从理论上构建了农村人力资本投资结构(包括私人和公共)对农村经济增长影响的模型,运用我国四大经济地区面板数据分析了农村私人和公共教育投资与健康投资对人力资本增量的促进作用,以及人力资本增量对农村经济增长的内在影响并加以检验。结果主要表明:农村人力资本投资结构对人力资本增量,人力资本增量对农村经济增长都具有一定的正向作用;农村私人和公共人力资本投资相对强调了教育投资而轻视了健康投资;私人人力资本投资产出效率高于公共人力资本投资产出效率;四大地区农村人力资本投资额与结构都存在较为明显的差距。     

民间资本进入金融领域的影响因素分析

民间资本进入金融领域的行为是投资条件、投资意愿和投资行动三者的加总,经济发展、政府政策、资金需求的存在昭示着投资条件的是否具备,信用状况、投资收益率和投资风险则决定投资意愿,这些因素都在直接或间接、或大或小的影响着投资忠诚度和投资额度,其中信用环境、资金需求、政府政策支持力度以及投资期限是民间资本通过人人贷进行正规借贷的主要影响因素。因此民间借贷的正规化有赖于风险防范体系和中小企业直接融资平台的完善,以及政府的扶持。     

Inventory investment and the cost of capital

We examine the relation between inventory investment and the cost of capital in the time series and the cross section. We find consistent evidence that risk premiums, rather than real interest rates, are strongly negatively related to future inventory growth at the aggregate, industry, and firm levels. The effect is stronger for firms in industries that produce durables rather than nondurables, exhibit greater cyclicality in sales, require longer lead times, and are subject to more technological innovation. We then construct a production-based asset pricing model with two types of capital, fixed capital and inventories, to explain these empirical findings. Convex adjustment costs and a countercyclical price of risk lead to negative time series and cross-sectional relations between expected returns and inventory growth.     

资本投向与控制权私有收益攫取的实证研究

文章基于资本投资形成控制性资源,为获取控制权私有收益创造基础的理论阐述,以2005—2007年在沪深两市A股市场的公司为样本,对我国上市公司投资决策中资本投向与控制权私有收益的关系进行了实证检验。研究结果表明：（1）不同投向的资本投资与控制权私有收益攫取水平正相关。（2）就固定资产、股权并购、无形资产三种资本投向而言,股权并购方式取得控制权私有收益的代价较低,但控制性股东占有被并购公司控制权私有收益的比例也较低。（3）不同投向下的资本投资,在形成控制权私有收益的同时并没有通过提高公司业绩而增加控制权共有收益,很大程度上是形成控制权私有收益的自利行为。     

The Effect of Corporate Status on External Audit Fees: Evidence From the UK

Abstract:  This paper simultaneously examines, for the first time, the determinants of external audit fees of UK companies drawn from the quoted sector (Main Market, the Alternative Investment Market and Ofex), and the unquoted sector (public and private limited companies). The paper also provides new evidence on the effects of corporate failure and the persistence of the big four and mid-tier auditor premiums across the public and private corporate sectors. After controlling for firm size, audit risk and complexity, we find that quoted and unquoted public limited companies have significantly higher audit fees than their private limited counterparts. Our estimates imply that relative premiums for market/corporate form are as follows: Main Market over AIM, 6.8%; AIM over Ofex, 19.5%; Ofex over unquoted plc, 15.5%; and unquoted plc over private, 16.7%. However, despite indications in prior US research to the contrary, we find no evidence that insolvent firms that failed were charged higher audit fees in the year preceding failure. A positive relationship is also found between audit and consultancy fees – a result that persists using an instrumental variables approach to control for endogeneity.     

The Effects of Mission-Oriented Public R & D Spending on Private Industry

This paper addresses the question of how government mission-oriented R & D spending affects private R & D spending and thereby the total investment in technology. The problem is approached within the context of the capital asset pricing model in which the firm views investment projects in terms of their risk and return characteristics. The firm is assumed to produce jointly an established product and an R & D-intensive product, where the latter generates an additional output of technology, or spillover, that is used as an input into the former. By investing in R & D the firm alters its risk and return characteristics in two ways: through the expected profits from the sale of the R & D-intensive good; and through the expected profits from the spillover. In this model, government mission-oriented R & D contracting affects the firm by enabling it to separate to some extent these two sources of risk and return. The main implication of the analysis is that while some public crowding out of private R & D is likely, this is almost certain to be incomplete. The empirical evidence from the U.S. transport industry supports the model and suggests that each dollar of government funding adds around 92 cents to total R & D spending; crowding out private investment by as little as eight percent.     

Effect of Capital Flight on Investment: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Much of the discussion on international capital movements is directed toward studying the effects of foreign capital flows, whereas the implications of resident capital outflows (capital flight) from developing countries remain largely unanalyzed. Using a dynamic panel methodology for twenty-two emerging market economies between 1975 and 2000, this paper investigates the effect of capital flight on investment and how this effect changes with financial liberalization policies. The empirical findings indicate that capital flight reduces private investment dramatically but does not have any effect on public investment. However, no statistically significant impact of financial liberalization on the marginal effect of capital flight on investment is found.     

The Market for External Audit Services in the Public Sector: An Empirical Analysis of NHS Trusts

This study investigates the market for audit services in the UK National Health Service (NHS). The market has a number of interesting features, including the presence of the Audit Commission as a regulator, appointer and provider of audit services. Following a theoretical overview of audit pricing in the NHS, evidence is provided on the behaviour of private sector auditors in an environment where audit risk characteristics differ from the private sector. The research also investigates, for the first time in the public sector, the relationship between audit fees and non–audit (consultancy) fees. Comparisons are also drawn between audit fees in the public and private sectors in an analysis of audit fees by industry. Despite some key similarities, the study shows that a number of differences exist between private and public sector audit fee models. In particular, we find no evidence of Big 6 (or mid–tier) auditor premiums, but we do find a significant negative relationship between audit and consultancy fees providing support for the 'knowledge spill–over' hypothesis. In addition, the fees charged to trusts appear significantly lower than their private sector counterparts, despite trust auditors having additional duties to perform. Possible explanations for this finding are offered in the paper.     

The Robustness of the Conditional CAPM with Human Capital

An empirical evaluation is provided of the robustness of theconditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) with human capitalto explain the cross-sectional variability of security returns.This model has been evaluated in the literature using the growthrate in per capita labor income. This article looks at richermeasures of human capital returns. It develops measures thatincorporate the costs and benefits of educational investment,skill premiums, worker experience, and other relevant featuresof human capital markets. It also considers variables that helpto forecast future human capital returns. We find that someof these richer measures help improve substantially the performanceof the model.     

中国实体企业金融化:货币扩张、资本逐利还是风险规避?

本文构建了一个刻画实体企业在流动性金融资产和固定资产之间进行权衡的投资组合选择模型,并创新性地将货币扩张的宏观因素引入微观模型,推演中国实业部门金融化的驱动逻辑。理论模型显示:货币扩张、资本逐利和风险规避本质上是宏观和微观两个不同层面的要素变量,但都卷入实业部门金融化的驱动机制中,然而驱动效应的表现形式要比已有文献的理论模型更加复杂。基于上市公司面板数据总体样本的实证结果表明:货币扩张、资本逐利和风险规避均是企业金融化的关键影响因素,但货币扩张表现为直接抑制和间接促进两种效应。进一步引入宏观风险因素和根据企业所有权性质划分样本的稳健性检验则给出了更为细致的信息:货币因素可能通过宏观风险因素间接作用于企业金融化;所有权性质不同的企业的金融化驱动机制也表现出明显的异质性:国有企业金融化主要受货币因素和风险规避因素影响;民营企业金融资产占比层面的金融化驱动因素是风险规避和资本逐利,而金融渠道获利占比层面的金融化则受到货币因素的显著影响;其他类型企业的金融化主要受货币因素的显著影响。     

财政转移支付如何影响了地方政府债务?

本文以地方融资平台公司发行的城投债为样本,研究来自中央政府的财政转移支付对于地方城投债发行的影响。研究发现,来自中央政府的人均财政专项转移支付每增加1元,会导致地方融资平台公司城投债发行增加人均0.312元,而包括税收返还和一般性转移支付在内的非专项转移支付对城投债的发行并无显著影响。并且,专项转移支付对城投债发行的显著正影响只在中西部省份存在,东部地区并未发现这一机制。本文的进一步研究表明,地方政府债务的借新还旧现象也正在显现,并且变得越来越严重。     

Public economics gone wild: Lessons from venture capital

A recent article in the Journal of Public Economics has asserted, among other things, that government venture capital funds in Europe have crowded out private venture capital. I explain that the findings in that paper are based on empirical measures that are completely flawed. Moreover, I show with data spanning 13 countries and the years 1989–2011 that government venture capital funds in Europe have not crowded out private venture capital investment. Finally, I draw implications for studying venture capital and public policy for other countries such as India and China.     

International Asset Pricing under Mild Segmentation: Theory and Test

This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of the pricing (and portfolio) implications of investment barriers in the context of international capital markets. The postulated market structure—labelled “mildly segmented”—leads to the existence of “super” risk premiums for a subset of securities and to a breakdown of the standard separation result. The empirical study uses an extended data base including LDC markets and provides tentative support for the mild segmentation hypothesis.     

The Effectiveness of Public and Private Sector Summary Risk Measures in Predicting Insurer Insolvencies

This article investigates the abilities of four key summary risk measures to predict property-liability insurer insolvencies. The four summary risk measures studied are the NAIC's risk-based capital ratios, the NAIC's financial analysis solvency tools (FAST) scores, A.M. Best's Capital Adequacy Relativity ratios, and A.M. Best's ratings. The empirical tests find that the risk measures produced by the private sector are superior in predictive ability to the measures produced by regulators, perhaps because of the qualitative adjustments made by private sector analysts. The results also demonstrate that overall measures of risk are substantially better than risk-based capital measures in predicting insolvencies. Another finding is that the predictive ability of the NAIC's RBC ratios can be improved substantially if ranks are used rather than the ratios themselves.     

Capital account liberalization and income inequality

This article makes both a theoretical and an empirical contribution to the literature on financial liberalization and income inequality. In the first part, we develop a tractable model that features agents with varying investment abilities and a banking sector. There are two possible interventions to liberalize the banking sector: first, a reduction in reserve requirements, and, second, an increase in the amount of foreign funds that can be used to finance domestic loans. Financial liberalization leads to enhanced banking sector efficiency and adjustments in interest rates affecting income of investors and savers, and, therefore, income inequality. Theoretically, the impact of financial liberalization on income inequality is ambiguous. Yet, the model suggests that financial liberalization will improve income distribution in countries where financial depth is high. Our empirical estimates confirm this conditional effect. More precisely, the estimates suggest that capital account liberalization only tends to lower income inequality if the level of financial depth, as measured by private credit over GDP, exceeds 25 percent.     

Corruption and Transparency in a Growth Model

We develop a Ramsey type model of economic growth in which the “Engine of Growth” is public capital accumulation. Public capital is a public good, and is financed by taxes on private output. The government may either use the taxes gathered to fund public capital accumulation or consume the resourses itself; that is engage in corruption. There is an irreducable level of endogenously determined corruption which constitutes rents for which potential governments compete. This competition takes the form of choosing a time path for public capital invesment, which implies time paths for output and household consumption. We study both the model’s steady state, and dynamical behavior along the saddle path. The predictions of our theory accord well with the existent empirical evidence on the relationships between the level and growth rate of output, corruption, public investment and fiscal transparency. Our analysis also provides a perspective on the transition experiences of several Eastern European economies. JEL Code: O41, H41