Terms of Trade, Tariffs, and Labor Market Adjustment in Developing Countries

A three-goods model (importables, exportables, and nontradables)is used to analyze labor market adjustment to changes in theterms of trade and import tariffs for a small, open economy.First, a three-goods, four-factor model (labor, and capitalspecific to each sector) is developed and used to investigatehow an exogenously generated change in a country's terms oftrade affects labor allocation and wages in the short run. Next,a more traditional three-goods, two-factor model is used toexamine the effects in the long run. The analysis is carriedout under alternative assumptions regarding wage flexibility:full flexibility, economy-wide real wage rigidity, and sector-specificreal wage rigidity.     

Wage rigidity and job creation

Recent research in macroeconomics emphasizes the role of wage rigidity in accounting for the volatility of unemployment fluctuations. We use worker-level data from the CPS to measure the sensitivity of wages of newly hired workers to changes in aggregate labor market conditions. The wage of new hires, unlike the aggregate wage, is volatile and responds almost one-to-one to changes in labor productivity. We conclude that there is little evidence for wage rigidity in the data.     

Downward wage rigidity and business cycle asymmetries

The growth rates of wages, unemployment and output of a number of OECD countries have a strongly skewed distribution. In this paper we analyze to what extent downward wage rigidities can explain these empirical business cycle asymmetries. To this aim, we introduce asymmetric wage adjustment costs in a New-Keynesian DSGE model with search and matching frictions in the labor market. Increasing wages is less costly than cutting them. It follows that wages increase relatively fast and thus limit vacancy posting and employment creation, but they decline more slowly, leading to a strong reduction in vacancies and employment. The presence of downward wage rigidities strongly improves the fit of the model to the observed skewness of labor market variables and the relative length of expansions and contractions in the output and the employment cycles. The asymmetry also explains the differing transmission of positive and negative monetary policy shocks from wages to inflation.     

The business cycle implications of reciprocity in labor relations

A reciprocity-based model of wage determination is incorporated into a modern dynamic general equilibrium framework and estimated on U.S. data. The estimation reveals that rent-sharing (between workers and firms) and wage entitlement (based on past wages) are important determinants of wage setting for the model to fit the dynamic responses of output, wages and inflation to various exogenous shocks. Aggregate employment conditions (measuring workers’ outside option), on the other hand, are found to play only a negligible role for wage setting. These results are consistent with micro-studies on reciprocity in labor relations but contrast with traditional efficiency wage models which emphasize aggregate labor market variables as the determinants of wage setting.     

The Role of Real Wage Rigidity and Labor Market Frictions for Inflation Persistence

We analyze the transmission mechanism of wages to inflation within a New Keynesian business cycle model with wage rigidities and labor market frictions. Our main focus is on the channel of real wage rigidities on inflation persistence for which we find the specification of the wage bargaining process to be of crucial importance. Under the standard efficient Nash bargaining, the feedback of wage rigidities on inflation is ambiguous and depends on other labor market variables. However, under the alternative right‐to‐manage bargaining we find that more rigid wages translate directly into more persistent movements of aggregate inflation.     

Politico-economic consequences of rising wage inequality

This paper uses a dynamic political economy model to evaluate whether the observed rise in wage inequality and decrease in median to mean wages can explain some portion of the relative increase in transfers to low earnings quintiles and relative increase in effective tax rates for high earnings quintiles in the U.S. over the past several decades. Specifically, we assume that households have uninsurable idiosyncratic labor efficiency shocks and consider policy choices by a median voter which are required to be consistent with a sequential equilibrium. We choose the transition matrix to match observed mobility in wages between 1978 and 1979 in the panel study of income dynamics (PSID) data set and then evaluate the response of social insurance policies to a new transition matrix that matches the observed mobility in wages between 1995 and 1996 and is consistent with the rise in wage inequality and the decrease in median to mean wages between 1979 and 1996. We deal with the problem that policy outcomes affect the evolution of the wealth distribution (and hence prices) by approximating the distribution by a small set of moments. We contrast these numbers with those from a sequential utilitarian mechanism, as well as mechanisms with commitment.     

Labor market reform and price stability: An application to the Euro Area

Central bankers frequently suggest that labor market reform may be beneficial for inflation management. This paper investigates this topic by simulating the effects of reductions in firing costs and unemployment benefits on inflation volatility in the Euro Area, using an estimated New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions. Qualitatively, changes in labor market policies alter the volatility of inflation in response to shocks, by affecting the volatility of the three components of real marginal costs (hiring costs, firing costs and wage costs). Quantitatively, we find, however, that neither policy is likely to have an important effect on inflation volatility, due to the small contribution of hiring and firing costs to inflation dynamics.     

秘密握手协议、生产率传递与工资的规模溢价

头部企业为什么能打破市场均衡而将生产率优势转化为工资租？理论分析表明,市场份额越大,雇主与雇员之间越易达成“秘密握手协议”,即通过联合来操纵劳动供给,以抬高人均生产率并进行分割。在这一过程中,员工分割比例虽有所下降,但不足以抵消人均生产率上升的影响,进而产生工资租。以上市公司为例,市场份额位于前10%的头部企业,人均生产率对工资的传递力度仅比市场份额位于中位值附近的企业低4%,但人均生产率却高出40%以上,直接导致了较高的工资优势。进一步借鉴Blanchard and Summers(1986)的方法进行检验,发现头部企业确实存在更明显的“合谋”迹象,程度比中位值附近的企业高出近一倍。“秘密握手协议”的本质是通过限制劳动力流动阻碍工资均等化,在扎实推进共同富裕的道路上,不仅要反产品市场垄断,也要防范不合理攫取生产率红利的行为。     

Has NAFTA Increased Labor Market Integration between the United States and Mexico?

This article analyzes three criteria for labor market integrationbetween Mexico and the United States before and since the NorthAmerican Free Trade Agreement: the responsiveness of Mexicanwages to US wage shocks, the speed at which relative wages returnto a long-run differential, and changes in the rate of convergenceof absolute wages. Tests for increased integration using thesethree criteria generate mixed results, which are then exploredby directly incorporating trade, foreign direct investment (FDI),and migration. The results suggest that trade and FDI did infact positively contribute to integration but that the increasein border enforcement depressed Mexican wages, masking the positivebenefits.     

Insurance and opportunities: A welfare analysis of labor market risk

Using a model with constant relative risk-aversion preferences, endogenous labor supply and partial insurance against idiosyncratic wage risk, this paper provides an analytical characterization of three welfare effects: (a) the welfare effect of a rise in wage dispersion, (b) the welfare gain from completing markets, and (c) the welfare effect from eliminating risk. The analysis reveals an important trade-off for these welfare calculations. On the one hand, higher wage uncertainty increases the cost associated with missing insurance markets. On the other hand, greater wage dispersion presents opportunities to raise aggregate productivity by concentrating market work among more productive workers. Welfare effects can be expressed in terms of the underlying parameters defining preferences and wage risk or, alternatively, in terms of changes in observable second moments of the joint distribution over individual wages, consumption and hours.     

Taxes and stabilization in contemporary macroeconomic models

The role of proportional and procyclic labor income taxes for automatic stabilization with stochastic productivity is analyzed in a contemporary macroeconomic model based on imperfect competition. The importance of short-run nominal wage rigidity for the effectiveness of progressive taxes on labor income for stabilizing output and raising household welfare is examined in a model that yields complete analytical solutions with stochastic output shocks. Increasing the procyclicity of labor income tax rates raises welfare with and without rigid nominal wages in the model economy. With fully flexible prices and wages, a positive covariance between the distortionary tax rate and productivity reduces the volatility of production and employment. This effect disappears under nominal wage rigidity, although progressive taxation can still raise welfare by reducing the distortion caused by a proportional labor tax. With rigid nominal wages and flexible consumer goods prices, payroll taxes levied at rates that rise with output can serve as automatic stabilizers. JEL Code E62 · H20     

最低工资与企业创新

本文考察了最低工资对企业创新的影响。研究发现,最低工资显著促进了企业创新,通过相邻样本分析、双重差分策略以及其他一系列稳健性检验发现,结论基本稳健。最低工资改善了企业的物质资本,降低了低技能工人就业,提高了高技能工人就业,促进了企业人力资本优化,从而为企业创新提供了硬件和软件条件。企业实现创新的方式有自创和引进技术两种,最低工资提高了企业的创新效率。进一步研究发现,最低工资改善了企业的要素结构和全要素生产率。异质性分析发现,最低工资对劳动密集型企业、平均工资较低的企业、行业竞争激烈的企业以及高市场化地区企业的创新影响更加明显。本文的研究结果表明,最低工资政策具有促进企业创新升级的作用,这与党的十九届五中全会提出的“坚持创新驱动发展”的战略目标相一致。     

最低工资与企业创新

本文考察了最低工资对企业创新的影响。研究发现,最低工资显著促进了企业创新,通过相邻样本分析、双重差分策略以及其他一系列稳健性检验发现,结论基本稳健。最低工资改善了企业的物质资本,降低了低技能工人就业,提高了高技能工人就业,促进了企业人力资本优化,从而为企业创新提供了硬件和软件条件。企业实现创新的方式有自创和引进技术两种,最低工资提高了企业的创新效率。进一步研究发现,最低工资改善了企业的要素结构和全要素生产率。异质性分析发现,最低工资对劳动密集型企业、平均工资较低的企业、行业竞争激烈的企业以及高市场化地区企业的创新影响更加明显。本文的研究结果表明,最低工资政策具有促进企业创新升级的作用,这与党的十九届五中全会提出的“坚持创新驱动发展”的战略目标相一致。     

Hedging labor income risk

We use a detailed panel data set of Swedish households to investigate the relation between their labor income risk and financial investment decisions. In particular, we relate changes in wage volatility to changes in the portfolio holdings for households that switched industries between 1999 and 2002. We find that households do adjust their portfolio holdings when switching jobs, which is consistent with the idea that households hedge their human capital risk in the stock market. The results are statistically and economically significant. A household going from an industry with low wage volatility to one with high volatility ceteris paribus decreases its portfolio share of risky assets by up to 35%, or $15,575.     

Portfolio theory,job choice and the equilibrium structure of expected wages

This paper presents some of the implications of modern portfolio theory for the equilibrium structure of wages under conditions of uncertainty. The primary model presented is a model of wage uncertainty and hence the equilibrium structure is derived in terms of expected wages. The equilibrium structure with the assumption of a perfect labor market (e.g., labor units are infinitely divisible and costlessly mobile) and a perfect capital market is shown to have a very simple linear form. The model assumes homogeneous labor units as well as the usual single-period capital asset pricing model assumptions.     

Optimal Monetary Policy with Labor Market Frictions: The Role of the Wage Channel

This paper introduces right‐to‐manage bargaining into a labor search model with sticky prices instead of standard efficient bargaining and examines the Ramsey‐optimal monetary policy. Without real wage rigidity, even when the steady state is inefficient, price stability is nearly optimal in response to technology or government shocks. Right‐to‐manage bargaining creates the wage channel to inflation, because there is a direct relationship between real wages and real marginal cost. In the presence of the wage channel, price markups consist of only real marginal cost, and real wages and hours per worker are determined such as in the Walrasian labor market.     

进口与企业员工收入——以中国制造业企业为例

进口企业的职工工资直接关系到企业员工的民生福祉和劳动力市场的就业稳定性。本文基于中国制造业微观企业数据,就进口贸易对企业职工收入的影响进行深入考察,结果表明:(1)进口有利于提高企业职工的平均工资水平,不过这种正向的“工资提升”效应在长期不具有持续性。(2)中介效应检验表明,进口通过竞争效应和激励效应作用于企业的工资水平。进一步使用倍差法、工具变量法等的估计结果也证实了上述结论的稳健性。(3)进口对企业工资水平的影响因企业所有制、是否出口、进口产品类型以及进口来源国的不同而具有显著的异质性。(4)引入劳动收入份额的分析表明,进口显著降低了企业的劳动收入份额。具体地,进口的“生产率提升效应”影响超过了“工资提升效应”影响。     

进口与企业员工收入——以中国制造业企业为例

进口企业的职工工资直接关系到企业员工的民生福祉和劳动力市场的就业稳定性。本文基于中国制造业微观企业数据,就进口贸易对企业职工收入的影响进行深入考察,结果表明:(1)进口有利于提高企业职工的平均工资水平,不过这种正向的“工资提升”效应在长期不具有持续性。(2)中介效应检验表明,进口通过竞争效应和激励效应作用于企业的工资水平。进一步使用倍差法、工具变量法等的估计结果也证实了上述结论的稳健性。(3)进口对企业工资水平的影响因企业所有制、是否出口、进口产品类型以及进口来源国的不同而具有显著的异质性。(4)引入劳动收入份额的分析表明,进口显著降低了企业的劳动收入份额。具体地,进口的“生产率提升效应”影响超过了“工资提升效应”影响。     

Wage rigidities and jobless recoveries

Real wage rigidities cause jobless recoveries. Suppose that a one-time shock reduces the capital stock below trend. If wages are flexible, they decline and employment increases at the moment of the shock, before both revert back to normal levels as the economy grows back to trend. If wages are completely rigid and the labor market is otherwise frictionless, the shock causes a proportional and permanent decline in employment, capital, output, consumption, and investment relative to trend. In a search model with rigid wages, the shock causes a persistent but not permanent decline in these economic outcomes, a jobless recovery.     

Optimal exchange rate flexibility with large labor unions

We study the optimal volatility of the exchange rate in a two-country model with sectoral non-atomistic wage setters, non-traded goods, nominal rigidities and alternative pricing assumptions – producer or local currency pricing. Labor unions internalize the sectoral impact of their wage settlements through firms' labor demand. With local currency pricing, exchange rate depreciation raises sales revenue, which in turn boosts domestic consumption and labor demand. Unions anticipate this effect and set higher wages accordingly. With small unions and low wage markup, optimal monetary policy enhances exchange rate movements to improve its terms of trade. With large unions and high wage markup, optimal monetary policy curbs exchange rate movements to restrain inflationary wage demands and to stabilize employment.