中美金融波动的协动性及风险传导路径分析

本文首先通过SVAR模型构建了中美两国金融状况指数来表征金融波动,其次用马尔可夫区制转换模型将其划分为繁荣和萧条两种状态,由此构建了反映两国金融波动同步性的协动指数(SI),最后用因子分析和门限回归分析了两国金融风险的传导路径。研究表明,中美金融波动周期长度接近,但呈现出截然不同的非对称特征。中美金融波动协动性及其风险传导路径会随着外部冲击和内部矛盾情势的变化而变化。门限回归结果显示,贸易因子在各区制内均显著,是两国金融联系的基础。金融协动性较低时,汇率因子是金融风险传导的主要途径。随着协动性提高进入中等水平,资产和利率因子成为主导。当协动性到达高区制时,股票和房价等资产因子仍是两国金融联系和风险传导的主通道,但与调控政策相关的汇率和利率因子开始显现出对风险的抵御作用,相关政策协调有助于抑制风险传导。     

惊鸿一瞥——美国就是美国

老美的赌场挺和谐拉斯维加斯,是沙漠里的赌城,也是全世界赌徒向往的圣地。博彩业是拉斯维加斯的支柱产业之一,赌场是这里的独特风景。一说到赌场,我们中国人不免会联想到昏暗吵杂的环境,各色赌徒们吆三喝四,输红了眼的倒霉蛋卖房卖地卖儿卖     

Nominal exchange rate volatility,relative price volatility,and the real exchange rate

We model real exchange rate, nominal exchange rate, and relative price volatility using real and nominal factors. We analyze these volatility measures across developing and industrialized countries. We find that the inclusion of nominal factors achieves a sizable reduction in the real exchange rate volatility spread between developing and industrialized countries. In addition, we find that nominal factors matter to real exchange rate volatility in the short run and the long run, and that for developing countries, a higher share of real exchange rate volatility stems from relative price volatility.     

Inter-industry wage differentials revisited: Wage volatility and the option value of mobility

Analysis of data from the PSID reveals that idiosyncratic wage volatility varies inversely with inter-industry wage differentials and is positively correlated with both returns to industry tenure and rates of inter-industry mobility. An incomplete markets life cycle model in which inter-industry mobility decisions and wage differentials are endogenously determined in equilibrium is then developed and shown to be capable of rationalizing these features of the data. In the model, the ability of worker to switch industries generates option value that is large enough to offset the standard risk premium that workers demand for exposure to excess wage volatility.     

美国的保险监管

从18世纪开始,美国对探索保险的监管方向做出不断的努力。本文作者为我们介绍了美国保险监管的发展历程和几次重大的立法与案例对其的影响,以及近期监管政府可能做出的政策选择。作者古奎特·李(L.Lee Colquitt)博士是美国奥本大学胡德夫金融学教授,此文由本刊的美国特约编辑杰姆斯·巴茨(James R.Barth)博士提供。     

债台高筑的美国经济

美国的财政赤字正以几何级数的速度在增长,但美国人自己并不为此而担心,他们甚至认为负债本身就是一种创造财富的过程。美国的决策者和经济学家们对于真正通过经济中的储蓄和投资所创造的财富和市场上依赖信贷政策鼓吹起来的资产泡沫所创造的"财富",是从来不加以区别的。居高不下的负债和不断增长的赤字消费,使美国成为一个债台高筑的国家。美国的赤字消费是影响全球经济的一个重大问题,对中国经济的影响也十分显著,从长远利益出发,我国的汇率、贸易及产业政策都应进行相应的调整,以确保中国经济长期稳定发展、企业竞争实力不断增强和人民生活水平不断提高。     

The possible new shape of accounting in the United States

The Dingell Hearings currently under way in the House of Representatives may be the most likely opportunity for a major alteration in the structure of accounting control in the United States since the passage of the Securities Acts in 1933–1934. One should assume that the subcommittee is serious about its objectives of providing for tighter SEC control over the accounting function and for increasing the effectiveness of auditing. In the following pages, I will offer my views on the crucial issues being considered by the subcommittee looking at the SEC and the accountants, and I will conjecture on the possible alternatives for congressional action. Finally, I will speculate on what these changes might mean to the structure of accounting practice and government regulatory activity, and I will make suggestions regarding some possible areas of future research into accounting institutions and policy.     

The determinants of foreign banking activity in the United States

The recent rapid growth of foreign banking activity in the United States has led to major changes in the regulation of foreign banks. This paper seeks to determine the factors causing this growth of foreign banks. Empirical tests were conducted employing quarterly time series data from 1972 through 1979. It is shown that the most important factors determining foreign bank growth were (i) the size of interest differentials between U.S. and foreign deposits and loans, (ii) the falling P/E ratios for U.S. bank stocks, (iii) the increased size of (net) foreign direct investment in the U.S., (iv) the persistent depreciation in the dollar, and (v) expectations that the International Banking Act of 1978 would have a restrictive affect on foreign bank activity in the U.S.     

University Audit Departments in the United States

Internal auditors of public and private universities were asked about their selection processes, supervisors, and activities. At public institutions, the governing board selects the internal auditor, the president supervises the work and more audit findings are implemented. Private institutions have more audit committees that are involved with the internal auditors' activities and their auditors perform more program audits. Thus, although public universities are following professional guidelines more closely, suggesting more accountability, private universities have greater access to audit committees and perform more value-added audits.     

The Day the United States Defaulted on Treasury Bills

Because of severe technical difficulties, the U.S. government was unable to repay investors in Treasury bills (T-bills) in late April through early May, 1979. This incident led to a 60 basis point increase in T-bill rates at the initial occurrence of the default. Unlike other information effects of that era, such as Henry Kaufman's predictions or Paul Volcker's “Saturday night special,” this increase in rates was not offset by a subsequent decrease in rates after the Treasury cured the default. The default apparently warned investors that Treasury issues were not completely riskless, which translates into a $12 billion annual increase in federal interest payments as a result of the 60 basis point permanent increase in interest rates.     

到美国上市要准备什么

公司是否有显著的、具有持续性的销售增长?公司需具有快速增长的业绩或在市场中的独特地位.近年来越来越多的创业阶段的各国企业虽不具有长期的历史业绩,但因为拥有对某一市场的领先地位或对自然资源的独家占有权,也能够成功地在美国融资.     

美国债务催收业的发展之路

在美国,如果消费者不能按时还款,他们的账户就会被转到催收部门,消费者贷款催收已经成为一个很大的行业。本文为我们介绍债务催收业中债权人及其代理人催收消费贷款的方式,特别是非抵押信用贷款的催收方式。作者供职于费城联邦储备银行。文章为本刊美国特约编辑杰姆斯·巴茨(James Barth)博士推荐。     

The Impact in the United States of Global Adoption of IFRS

This paper presents the pros and cons of the use of IFRS by US companies. The quest for one set of high-quality accounting standards recognised globally is clearly the ideal goal. However, before making a decision on the use of IFRS in the United States (US), the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) should develop a blueprint to ensure that prerequisites for achieving a true global standard are satisfied and that convergence will continue. An 'improve and then adopt' approach appears to represent the best way forward for the US.     

The Search for Standard Costing in the United States and Britain

This article describes the relationship between the understanding and practice of standard costing in both the U.S. and the U.K. and discusses the development of specific practices in the immediate post‐World War II period. Based on a detailed review of the post‐war literature, the authors conclude that the quantity and quality of standard costing and related scientific management practices (time study, variance analysis, etc.) reached a level in practice that many accounting historians have felt should have been achieved at an earlier point in time. Another principal finding is that standard costing, initially promulgated in the late 1910s, continued to develop in both the U.S. and the U.K. in evolutionary fashion into the late 1940s and 1950s, a finding which demonstrates that Britain was not as far behind America in terms of its standard costing practices as has been commonly believed. The article also explicates the relatively minor impact of the Anglo‐American Council on Productivity, sponsor of sixty‐six post‐war visitations over a four‐year period by British groups of employers, trade unionists and professionals, to study American industrial methods, including standard costing.     

The price and quantity of residential land in the United States

One can conceptualize a house as a bundle comprising a reproducible tangible structure and a non-reproducible plot of land. When the value of a home is decomposed this way, land capitalizes the market value of a home's location. We develop a formal relationship between the dynamics of house prices, structures costs and land prices, and thereby construct the first constant-quality price and quantity indexes for the aggregate stock of residential land in the United States. In a range of applications we show that these series can shed light on trends, fluctuations and regional variation in the price of housing.