信用衍生产品对金融危机的影响效应

当前,全球金融危机的余波仍然存在,全球金融危机使得很多实体经济都遭遇到了重创。本文将信用衍生产品与金融危机结合起来进行分析,分析信用衍生产品对金融危机的影响,通过界定概念与分类,阐述了信用衍生产品交易风险以及对金融危机的影响效应,最后,提出了完善信用衍生产品市场的对策建议。     

现代投资银行系统风险规制及监管法律制度分析

2008年金融危机的爆发,对全球经济带来了较大的影响,监管与规制不妥是此次金融危机爆发的主要原因之一,银行在金融危机中所处的地位和角色是特殊的,金融危机问题爆发了银行管理模式与理念的缺失。因此,在日常规章中实施风险监管要求,对监管体制进一步完善,在构建法律规章制度的根基上,必须坚持市场准入的原则,从根源上对风险进行防范。本文针对现代投资银行系统风险规制及监管法律制度予以分析,进行探讨。     

基于美德经验的极端风险溢出效应检验

本文运用GARCH模型和主成分分析方法,从分析极端风险溢出机理出发,实证研究国际金融危机前后美国股票市场、债券市场及金银市场对德国股票市场的风险溢出效应,发现标准普尔500指数对德国法兰克福DAX指数日收率不仅存在极端风险溢出效应,且在金融危机前后的三个时期都存在风险溢出效应;而美国13周国债指数日收益率对德国法兰克福DAX指数日收益率在金融危机前后的三个时期都不存在风险溢出效应;费城金银指数的日收益率只在金融危机时期对德国法兰克福DAX指数日收益率产生风险溢出效应,即仅存在极端风险溢出效应。     

行业视角下我国金融风险溢出效应实证研究

在金融市场快速发展和金融行业加速融合的背景下,我国金融行业之间存在着强烈且不稳定的相关关系,使得金融行业之间的风险溢出效应表现明显,某个金融行业的风险极易扩散至其他行业甚至整个金融体系,导致潜在的金融风险进一步恶化为全局性的金融危机。为探究我国各金融行业之间的风险溢出效应,本文在对我国金融风险传导渠道进行理论分析的基础上,利用申万二级银行指数、证券指数、保险指数和中证金融指数的股票收益率数据,通过构建DCC-GARCH-CoVaR模型,测算我国各金融行业之间及其与金融市场之间的动态条件相关系数和边际风险溢出贡献度。结果表明:DCC-GARCH-CoVaR模型能够有效刻画各金融行业之间及其与金融市场之间的动态相关性和风险溢出效应。从动态相关性来看,金融市场与银行业的动态相关性较强,具体到行业与行业之间,保险业与其他金融行业的动态条件相关系数较高;从风险溢出效应来看,证券业对金融市场和其他金融行业的风险溢出贡献度最大,其次是保险业,银行业最低。     

金融衍生工具的风险特点分析

美国的次贷危机在全球金融市场引起了巨大的连锁反应,全球经济全面放缓。而金融衍生工具的发展和应用所带来的高风险无疑是诱发金融危机的原因之一。本文对金融衍生工具的风险特点和成因进行了分析,并进一步探讨如何对金融衍生工具风险进行适度的防范和有效的监管。     

从金融危机看中国企业出口退出与企业财务状况的关系北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章基于1998～2011年中国工业企业数据库数据．从融资约束的视角来探讨企业财务状况对出口退出的影响,并对比企业财务指标在金融危机期间和非金融危机期间对其影响的显著性。研究发现。企业出口持续时间段大多数处于2—6年之间;金融危机期间,企业退出出口市场的风险始终高于非危机期间：流动性强的企业出口退出风险要低．但杠杆率对出口市场退出风险有负效应,与我们的研究预期不一致。文章并进一步考虑了金融危机的调节作用,金融危机期间相对于非金融危机期间．流动性对企业出口退出风险的影响反转为正效应．杠杆率对企业出口退出风险的影响在减弱,高借贷比的企业相对于低借贷比企业有更强的出口优势,出口退出的风险相对要小。     

后金融危机时代铁路投资对我国经济的影响

1997年亚洲金融危机时,我国采取了以公路基建建设为主拉动内需的策略,成功闯过险滩。2008年全球金融危机,铁路投资成为我国拉动内需、应对风险的重要战略。如今在后金融危机时代,铁路投资能否依旧成为拉动中国经济的新引擎,铁路建设对国民经济的拉动到底有多大成为了关键问题。通过分析铁路建设所带来的铁路投资乘数效应,探讨其对GDP的拉动能力。     

欧洲主权债务危机的传染效应及空间传染渠道分析

本文构建SCI指数来度量欧洲主权债务危机传染效应,利用Moran’s I考察金融传染的空间依赖性,运用空间面板模型研究金融传染渠道影响因素的直接效应与间接效应。SCI指数表明基本上所有的国家或地区两两之间都发生了较弱的金融传染效应。Moran’s I表明金融危机传染存在显著的空间依赖关系。宏观基本面对金融危机传染有显著影响,宏观基本面的恶化会加深金融危机传染;金融危机传染在贸易上有空间依赖性;流动性风险对此次金融危机传染不显著。通货膨胀率、实际有效汇率、国际储备对数、贸易进出口的直接效应均显著为负,但间接效应却有正有负,这表明欧洲主权债务危机不仅只有欧元区受到传染,全球其他经济体也在不同程度上受到传染。且此次危机明显受到季风效应的影响,且有明显的贸易空间依赖性。     

金融风险传染效应的研究

随着世界经济金融一体化的日益深化,金融传染效应也在不断地扩大。金融风险传染效应是金融危机在国际金融市场上的一种扩散现象,主要是从国家间的关联角度出发解释金融危机的发生,揭示的是风险传染影响手段、渠道、方式及其内在机理。金融风险传染的效应主要来自于关联传染效应、违约相关传染效应和国际经济传染效应,针对不同风险的效应应采取不同的风险防控策略。     

政府影子银行债务与实体经济波动关系的实证研究

金融危机以来,在积极财政政策的推动下,我国影子银行债务特别是具有高杠杆性的政府影子银行债务快速增长,金融结构的不平衡风险增加,对实体经济稳定发展产生了较大的负面影响。如何平衡好稳增长和防风险之间的关系、增强金融服务实体经济的能力、防范化解重大金融风险已成为当务之急。本文运用多元线性回归方法分析政府影子银行债务对实体经济波动影响的阈值效应,并进一步通过构建时变GARCH-CoVaR模型,测度政府影子银行债务与实体经济之间的风险溢出效应。研究结果表明,政府影子银行债务对实体经济波动的影响存在阈值效应;政府影子银行债务与实体经济波动之间存在单向的风险溢出效应。     

金融危机理论演进与发展研究

随着我国金融开放的深度和广度的不断提高,旧有风险进一步暴露,新的风险进一步产生。我国经济受全球经济波动的影响越来越大,发生金融危机的可能性也在增大。由于金融危机的最大特征就是货币的急剧贬值,关于货币危机的研究也最为成熟,目前已形成四代理论模型。而银行业危机理论和外债危机理论的研究比较分散,还没有形成像货币危机理论那样完善的体系。     

2004年～2008年我国中药上市企业财务风险的实证研究

控制财务风险对企业的稳定发展影响重大,本文利用Z值模型和上市公司年报数据对我国27家中药上市企业的财务状况进行分析,指出企业应当根据自身特点,采取针对性的策略,避免财务风险。2004年～2008年,27家中药上市企业Z值平均值为4.45,表明虽然整体财务状况情况良好,但企业间的差异较大。本文认为,从保持企业资产的流动性,增加企业的留存收益,加强企业资产的获利能力,扩大企业的主营业务收入,这四方面入手,可有效降低企业财务风险。     

Immediate responses to financial crises: A focus on US MNE subsidiaries

This paper provides evidence for the immediate or short-term responses to financial crises of US multinational firm (MNE) subsidiaries. Using a real options perspective, we hypothesize that financial crises change the relative value of ‘within-country’ versus ‘across-country’ options for MNE subsidiaries. We suggest that relocating subsidiary output is an effective short-term response to local financial crises. We examine the effects of 83 financial crises (banking, debt and currency crises) on longitudinal data of US MNEs’ subsidiary sales in over 50 countries in the period 1983–2005. Our results show market-switching effects. Particularly in the case of local currency crises we observe a refocus of the MNE's subsidiary local sales toward export markets. The effect is maintained in the occurrence of twin financial crises. These results confirm our expectation that financial crises cause an increase in the value of ‘across-country’ option relative to ‘within-country’ option.     

Financial crises and venture capital development: evidence from Indonesia

This exploratory study examines how financial crises impede or support venture capital (VC) development in the context of Indonesia and the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis (AFC). Using a mixed-methods research methodology, the study finds that financial crises have divergent effects on VC development. Financial crises support VC development through accelerated VC practise diffusion, but impede that development by slowing VC enabling conditions. The effects of the substantial macro institutional changes often associated with financial crises are insufficient to overcome these impediments, resulting in a smaller VC industry.     

How red is China's red capitalism? Continuity and change in China's financial services sector during the global crisis

Chinese capitalism cannot be captured by theoretical frameworks and concepts such as the ‘Varieties of Capitalism’ approach. Despite its integration into the world economy and the financial crises, the country has kept a stable Leninist basis of formal institutions. The case of financial services shows: (i) a resilience of the sector to the ‘Great Financial Crisis’ of 2008 and (ii) the use of the crisis as an opportunity. Examining the control of Chinese financial services shows that private interests and the regulatory authorities are intimately linked to the state apparatus and that there is no radical break in sight with China's unique blend of party state-led capitalism.     

Leverage regulation: An agent-based simulation

An agent-based financial market model is used to simulate the effects of financial regulation to reduce financial leverage. Results suggest that regulating leverage using margin calls can lead to less frequent financial crises per century, however, it creates harder hit financial crises than without regulation. In addition, regulation where the central authority tries to prick bubbles also leads to less frequent financial crises, but, creates greater volatility. Lastly, I find that leverage regulation where agent’s ability to borrow is not dependent on price produces less frequent crises and less volatility than the other regimes.     

Economic growth,financial market,and twin crises

In this study, we look not only to provide empirical evidence to investigate the direct impact of financial crises on economic growth, but also to examine the roles of insurance development, financial liberalization, financial institution, and crisis intervention policies on the relationship between the two. We employ a panel data framework from 50 countries by applying the dynamic panel generalized method of moments model. Our main empirical results show that financial crises do have a significantly negative impact on economic growth. In addition, governments or authorities are encouraged to further enhance their insurance sector in order to help spur economic growth when financial crises arise. The government intervention policy choice is also an important factor influencing economic growth during crises.     

Financial crises and contagion vulnerability of MENA stock markets

This paper examines contagion vulnerability and the international and regional financial linkages of the MENA stock markets. The degree of vulnerability of those markets to global and regional financial crises will have important bearings on the respective economies' growth rate, and on their ability to diversify international and regional portfolios. Granger causality tests and impulse response functions reveal that while the GCC equity markets still offer international investors portfolio diversification potentials, those markets are relatively less vulnerable to global and regional financial crises. Moreover, even though the remaining MENA stock markets of Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia have matured and are now financially integrated with the world stock markets, they tend to exhibit more vulnerability to regional and international financial crises. Their vulnerability to international financial crises is due, on the one hand, to weak regional integration, and to greater economic and financial integration with the more advanced economies on the other.     

What drives financial crises in emerging markets?

The study examines the causes of financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980–2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as private sector liabilities and the foreign liabilities of banks explain currency crises rather well, and it appears currency crises occur in tandem with banking crises. Indeed, in emerging market countries the vulnerability to crisis is exacerbated by situations involving large liabilities that permit sudden capital outflows. Increases in indebtedness followed the liberalization of capital flows and domestic financial sectors.     

Predicting financial crises in emerging markets using a composite non-parametric model

The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The paper aims at showing that the key difficulty is not the identification of proper endogenous variables, but the ability to combine them in a way that is able to capture the combinatorial aspect of such causal relations. The paper is based on a newly developed non-parametric methodology for country risk signaling: the RiskMonitor CDM-Model. Using a combination of macroeconomic indicators and a composite model of 5 modern non-parametric classification methods, we constructed 9 early warning signals to predict financial crises in emerging markets. These signals are constructed for 3 types of crises (cyclical crises, exchange rate crises and transfer crises) and over 3 horizons (less than 1 year, 1 to 3 years, 3 to 5 years). This complex use of quantitative models is able to provide excellent early warning information, with impressive back-testing results on 50 developing countries over the period 1980 to 2002.