Duration and convexity in commercial property lease management

Summary

This paper examines the application of portfolio immunization strategies to leasehold real estate investments. It illustrates how measures such as duration and convexity can be used to improve the management of property portfolios and it also shows how the application of these statistical techniques can make more explicit the comparison of property assets with other investment media.     

郑州市商服用地基准地价时空变异研究

本文以郑州市为研究区域,利用基准地价分级图与价格指数,对2003-2008年郑州市商服用地基准地价进行时空变异分析,主要结论如下:(1)基准地价呈现单中心连续分布;(2)基准地价在部分地区出现了跳跃现象,其空间分布存在着变异性;(3)基准地价分布与城市主干道呈局部平行关系;(4)基准地价变化受经济、政策和城市规划影响显著。     

Property rights and housing prices: An empirical study of small property rights housing in Shenzhen,China

Small Property Rights Housing (SPRH) is an important part of informal housing in China. SPRH is defined as housing developed with collective land ownership that is then sold to outside homebuyers such as non-indigenous villagers. This housing practice is legally forbidden and comes without formal titles. SPRH is popular in big Chinese cities where formal housing prices are constantly rising and increasingly unaffordable for many urban residents. However, research on SPRH is rare. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effects (or the lack thereof) of de-jure property rights on housing prices by using the empirical case of Shenzhen where SPRH and FPRH estates constitute the main sources of urban housing for its residents. We collected both SPRH and formal Full Property Right Housing (FPRH) data in the Shenzhen housing market and adopted the Boundary Fixed Effect method and matching strategy to mitigate the bias caused by unobservable location and neighborhood factors. This empirical study shows that the lack of de-jure property rights has negative and significant effects on housing prices. The average housing price for SPRH apartments is, ceteris paribus, 52.82% lower than for formal FPRH apartments. Also, the premium of property rights varies across two administrative regions with different locations and economic environments, and the premium decreases as the age of the building increases.     

Time to completion in the Lagos commercial real estate market: an examination of institutional effects

This study explores how institutions affect the process of investment and the time it takes to buy and sell commercial property in Lagos, Nigeria. We isolate institutional factors that impact transaction efficiency and provide a snapshot of the process with average transaction times for the largest commercial real estate market in the most populous country in Africa. This study adopts a qualitative approach and relies on information collected from semi-structured interviews with 36 senior level individuals active in the Lagos commercial real estate market. Among our findings, we note the commercial real estate transaction process is divided into seven distinct stages and the average time to complete an acquisition across all stages (all property types) is 306 days. Title registration/perfection stage takes the longest time (around 132 days) and represents a significant risk to investors. We argue this is a consequence of imperfections in the formal institutions of title registration.     

Capitalized amenity value of urban wetlands: a hedonic property price approach to urban wetlands in Perth,Western Australia*

Up to 60 per cent of potable water supplied to Perth, Western Australia, is extracted from the groundwater system that lies below the northern part of the metropolitan area. Many of the urban wetlands are groundwater‐dependent and excessive groundwater extraction and climate change have resulted in a decline in water levels in the wetlands. In order to inform decisions on conserving existing urban wetlands, it is beneficial to be able to estimate the economic value of the urban wetlands. Applying the Hedonic Property Price approach to value urban wetlands, we found that distance to the nearest wetland and the number of wetlands within 1.5 km of a property significantly influence house sales price. For a property that is 943 m away from the nearest wetland, which is the average distance to the wetland in this study, reducing the wetland distance by 1 m will increase the property price by AU$42.40. Similarly, the existence of an additional wetland within 1.5 km of the property will increase the sales price by AU$6976. For a randomly selected wetland, assuming a 20 ha isolated circular wetland surrounded by uniform density housing, the total sales premium to surrounding properties was estimated to be around AU$140 million (AU$40 million and AU$230 million).     

Air pollution and food prices: evidence from China

Air pollution is one of the top environmental concerns in China. On days with severe air pollution, people (both consumers and producers) often reduce outdoor economic activities in order to avoid possible health damages. This impacts the market trade of fresh food products, at least in a short run. This empirical study sheds light on the impact of air pollution on the short run prices of three major fresh food products (Chinese cabbage, tomatoes and pork) using daily data from the largest outdoor wholesale market in Beijing. With an increase in AQI (Air Quality Index) by 100 units, prices for Chinese cabbage and tomatoes decrease by 1.19 and 0.89 per cent. With an increase in PM2.5 concentration by 100 μg/m³, prices for Chinese cabbage and tomatoes decrease by 0.64 and 0.55 per cent. Air pollution affects vegetable prices, but has no significant impact on prices of pork products.     

Smallholders,institutional services,and commercial transformation in Ethiopia

This article examines the role of institutional services of credit, input supply, and extension in the overall commercial transformation process of smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia. Survey data collected in 2006 from 309 sample households in three districts of Ethiopia are used for the analyses. Tobit regression models are used to measure the effect of access to services on the intensity of inputs use for fertilizer and agrochemicals. A probit model is used to measure these effects on the adoption of improved seeds. Intensity of use of seeds is analyzed using an ordinary least squares model. Logarithmic Cobb–Douglass functions are estimated to analyze the effect of access to services on crop productivity. Heckman's two‐stage estimation is used to examine determinants of household market participation and the extents of participation. Results show that access to institutional support services plays a significant role in enhancing smallholder productivity and market orientation. Our results imply that expanding and strengthening the institutional services is critical for the intensification and market orientation of smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia. In particular, appropriate incentives and regulatory systems are urgently needed to encourage the involvement of the private sector in the provision of agricultural services.     

Implications for investors,managers, auditors,valuers and regulators of discrepancies in commercial valuations

Summary

The discrepancy between appraised valuations and market prices is a cause for concern to valuers, investors, bankers, trustees, accountants, auditors, portfolio managers and regulators. Members of each group need to clarify how the potential costs of a discrepancy will effect them. Error metrics, relevant to the risk profile of interested parties, are illustrated as a means of quantifying the exposure to which each is subjected. Dialogue and discussion between interest groups is thought to be the best way of overcoming the apparent anomally.     

Urban proximity,demand for land and land shadow prices in Malawi

We assess the spatial and intertemporal variation in farmland prices using per hectare minimum willingness to accept (WTA) sales and rental (shadow) prices in Malawi. We use three rounds of nationally representative farm household panel data from the Living Standards Measurement Surveys (LSMS), collected in 2010, 2013 and 2016. The sample is split in quintiles based on distance from the nearest major city, building on the land valuation and transaction cost theory, and agrarian political economy perspectives on global and national land transactions. Generally, farmland shadow prices decrease with distance from urban areas. However, farmland shadow sales prices increased more sharply between 2010 and 2013 in rural areas (+100 % vs +30 % in urban proximity). The results indicate that the sharp increase in demand for large-scale land transfers following the sharp increase in energy and food prices also affected rural smallholders’ land valuation, even in remote rural areas of Malawi. Conversely, by 2016 land shadow sales prices were again, like in 2010, about three times as high in areas near urban centres compared to remote rural areas. Even though sales prices declined in remote rural areas from 2013 to 2016, rental prices remained high. Using farm household-level population pressure variable, we show that local population pressure is a driver of farmland shadow prices, indicating land scarcity challenges, growing demand for land, and poorly developed land markets. With increasing land scarcity, land markets are becoming more important and need to be factored in when formulating development policies that aim to improve access to land in both peri-urban and rural areas.     

The demand for education: The impacts of good schools on property values in Brisbane,Australia

The demand for education is partly revealed by a higher demand for properties around good schools, which has been the basis for a number of empirical studies. This research attempts to explore the nexus of school quality and the property market when school ranking is clearly available to the public. The spatial hedonic property valuation method was employed to analyze selected Brisbane public (state) and private schools consisting of those with high, middle and low ranking in terms of average student academic school performance. The results imply the capitalization of school values in both property and rental prices. The research also demonstrates the spillover impacts of school development. Such impacts are higher in comparison to previous studies, which are supported by the average school performance considered in individual assessments. The results of this study can be a valuable input into school policy reforms. (JEL: H23, I20, I28, R21)     

水利建设市场主体信用信息共享激励机制研究

针对目前水利建设市场主体信用信息获取的不完整性、不及时性等问题,基于非对称信息博弈理论,研究并构建水利建设市场主体信用信息共享的激励机制模型,并运用博弈理论对政府和水利建设市场主体以及各水利建设市场主体之间的信用信息共享行为进行分析。研究表明:当政府对信用信息共享给予一定的奖励时,信用较好或较差的水利建设市场主体都倾向于选择信用信息共享行为,且最优的激励系数与信用信息共享成本系数和水利建设市场主体的风险规避度有关。该研究成果为实现水利建设市场主体信用动态管理奠定了基础,同时,为进一步研究信用动态管理相关问题提供依据。     

Nudging farmers in crop choice using price information: Evidence from Ethiopian Commodity Exchange

The lack of reference price information is often regarded as one of the most pervasive aspects of incomplete commodity markets in developing countries. Previous studies on the effects of price information emphasize the market participation and performance of rural households. This paper argues that access to reference price information influences farmers’ crop choice decisions, the most important decision in farming activity. The study exploits the variation in timing and spatial distance of the publicly run Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) price tickers as an indicator for variation in the intensity of access to reference price information among rural villages in Ethiopia. The paper finds that access to price information increases the average farm-gate prices for traded commodities and incentivizes farmers to allocate more land, fertilizer and improved seeds to commodities traded in the ECX. It also nudges farmers to produce more of the traded commodities, increasing the output share of ECX-traded commodities.     

Measuring the cost of liquidity in agricultural futures markets: Conventional and Bayesian approaches

Estimating the cost of liquidity in agricultural futures markets is challenging because bid‐ask spreads are usually not observed. Based on an ability to reflect simulated data from Roll's spread model, we assess the effectiveness of conventional and Bayesian bid‐ask spread estimators under different market conditions. Conventional serial covariance and absolute price change spread estimators appear to be biased. Hasbrouck's Bayesian estimator generates small costs of liquidity whose values depend on the correlation and noise in the data. The absolute value Bayesian estimator is precise and works well under conditions of high levels of noise and correlation usually found in agricultural futures markets. Using data from live cattle (LC) and lean hog (LH) contracts, we find similar patterns of performance that produce economically meaningful cost of liquidity differences.     

The analysis of customer density,tenant placement and coupling inside a shopping centre with GIS

The spatial arrangement of tenants is currently one of the main topics in shopping centre research. This paper shows how a Geographic Information System (GIS) can be used to analyse the tenant structure. Given the recommendations in the literature, the analysis may help to improve the situation within a certain shopping centre. Therefore, we introduce the variable clumping method and kernel density estimation into shopping centre research in order to analyse retail category concentrations, customer flows and coupling in a shopping centre. Applying these techniques to a German shopping centre showed that spatial concentration can be observed within the retail categories of food, health & body and fashion and that the pass ratio declines according to the distance from the central point of the shopping centre. Also, shops in the same retail category have higher coupling than those of different categories, and unexpectedly spatially separated shops have a slightly higher coupling than non-spatially separated ones. Overall, the use of GIS improves the quality and the speed of spatially based analysis, and thus should be used more frequently in scientific shopping centre research and shopping centre management.     

Incentives, Information Systems, and Competition

We investigate how different competitive regimes affect the ability to provide incentives based on noisy information systems. The set-up involves multiple producers and processors in the presence of moral hazard and adverse selection. Reduced competition may facilitate incentive provision by allowing more high-powered incentives. This may rationalize both vertical and horizontal integration as seen in many agricultural markets with uncertain quality grading. On the other hand, if trading terms are settled before the information is observed, a noisy information system may suffice to give proper incentives. This may rationalize the use of long-term conditional price contracts in the trading of many agricultural products.     

The impact of mining and smelting activities on property values: a study of Mount Isa city,Queensland, Australia

Much publicity has been given to the problem of high levels of environmental contaminants, most notably high blood lead concentration levels among children in the city of Mount Isa because of mining and smelting activities. The health impacts from mining‐related pollutants are now well documented. This includes published research being discussed in an editorial of the Medical Journal of Australia (see Munksgaard et al. 2010 ). On the other hand, negative impacts on property prices, although mentioned, have not been examined to date. This study rectifies this research gap. This study uses a hedonic property price approach to examine the impact of mining‐ and smelting‐related pollution on nearby property prices. The hypothesis is that those properties closer to the lead and copper smelters have lower property (house) prices than those farther away. The results of the study show that the marginal willingness to pay to be farther from the pollution source is AUS $13 947 per kilometre within the 4 km radius selected. The study has several policy implications, which are discussed briefly. We used ordinary least squares, geographically weighted regression, spatial error and spatial autoregressive or spatial lag models for this analysis.     

基于信息不对称理论的水产品质量安全监管

通过将信息不对称理论引入水产品质量安全监管的分析中,简述了水产品质量安全特征,并就信息不对称在水产品生产经营过程中的表现、存在的原因以及对水产品市场的影响进行了研究。以期通过相关的政府管制措施降低水产品生产经营过程中存在的信息不对称,提高水产品质量安全水平。     

Legal aspects of synchronising data on real property location in polish cadastre and land and mortgage register

In recent years, many attempts have been made in Poland to enable automatic data exchange between the system of the Cadastre, being the responsibility of local government units, and the system of Land and Mortgage Register, maintained by the judicial administration (supported by the state apparatus represented by the Ministry of Justice). Such exchange is necessary as it is dictated by the establishment of the Integrated Real Estate Information System. These actions, however, are hindered by the different approaches of the users to the designs and functions of the two systems, as well as by the data incompatibility between the two registers.The article discusses various categories of problems related to the need to synchronise the terms corresponding to spatial objects between individual groups of users. Then, it outlines the difficulties associated with the unambiguous assignment of spatial objects to specific objects of a higher hierarchy level, resulting from the different priorities of the operators of both systems.The author also points out to the fact that ensuring coherence of the data on real property location is yet another condition allowing automatic data exchange between the systems and a full data modernization process in the base systems for the Integrated Real Estate Information System. Due to significant discrepancies between the assumptions of the systems and the data actually stored in them, such systematisation of attributes is necessary. The process of making the data on real estate consistent must take into account the conditions related to both historical events, often dating back to the times of partitions, as well as errors repeatedly committed on current basis, related to the incorrect entry of new data. The article has also pointed to the problems in data standardisation, resulting from multi-level administrative divisions, carried out due to various social needs.     

Determinants of transaction activity in commercial real estate markets: evidence from European and Asia-Pacific countries

Variations in transaction activity between commercial real estate markets could have important implications for investment strategies and pricing. We consider why turnover rates, a common liquidity proxy, vary between countries and over time. We examine 38 countries in Europe and Asia-Pacific over the period 2000–2014. A conceptual framework is discussed prior to estimation of panel models that use turnover rates as the dependent variable. Our results indicate that the size and wealth of a country, the risk associated with that country and the performance of its commercial real estate market are significant factors that explain transaction activity. The quality of property rights is also an important factor.