How Feasible is Carbon Sequestration in Korea? A Study on the Costs of Sequestering Carbon in Forest

In recent years, carbon sequestration has become a more attractive policy in Korea due to the increasing trend of marginal cropland and enhanced public awareness on adverse climate change phenomena. This study aims to calculate the unit costs of carbon sequestration programs through afforestation in Korea and examine the cost-effectiveness of programs. The basis of our simulation is an econometric land use share model, and province level of aggregated panel data are used for model estimation. Four scenarios are considered depending on whether the program includes the harvest and which tree species are planted. The approach of sequestration program is to pay the landowners to convert their lands to forest for a period of time in exchange of fixed annual payment in addition to tree establishment cost. Our results show that the unit cost varies from $122 to $486 per ton of carbon stored depending on the scenarios and payment levels. We found that the carbon sequestration can be a cost-effective mitigation policy in Korea although it is not the least cost option.     

Carbon Subsidies,Taxes and Optimal Forest Management

We consider the effect of carbon credit payment schemes on forest owners’ land use and harvest decisions. We study two possible credit allocation regimes: one where credits are allocated according to the actual amount of carbon sequestered by the trees on a piece of land and another where credits are allocated according to the long-run potential to sequester carbon on the land. Using a real options model with uncertain future timber prices, we examine the effect on the timing of harvests and the replanting-abandonment decision. We show that both schemes discourage deforestation. Compensating growers for actual carbon sequestration leads to longer rotation periods between harvests, while basing compensation only on the long-run potential level of sequestration induces shorter rotation periods. The former scheme leads to greater benefits of carbon sequestration at lower cost than the latter scheme. Although inducing moderate levels of sequestration is expensive under both schemes, the cost falls dramatically when the level of payments climbs above some threshold. Indeed, providing the payments are sufficiently generous, carbon credit payment schemes offer an effective means of increasing carbon sequestration. The views expressed in this paper are strictly those of the authors and do not represent the views of the New Zealand Commerce Commission. We thank Lewis Evans and two anonymous referees for many very helpful comments. Kevin Counsell, Steen Videbeck, and participants at an ISCR seminar also provided useful suggestions. Fletcher Forests Ltd and the New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry generously provided data.     

The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry

This paper analyses the role of global land management alternatives in determining potential greenhouse gas mitigation by land-based activities in agriculture and forestry. Land-based activities are responsible for over a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet the economics of land-use decisions have not been explicitly modeled in global mitigation studies. In this paper, we develop a new, general equilibrium framework which effectively captures the opportunity costs of land-use decisions in agriculture and forestry, thereby allowing us to analyse competition for heterogeneous land types across and within sectors, as well as input substitution between land and other factors of production. When land-using sectors are confronted with a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, we find significant changes in the global pattern of comparative advantage across sectors, regions, and land types. Globally, we find that forest carbon sequestration is the dominant strategy for GHG emissions mitigation, while agricultural-related mitigation comes predominantly from reduced methane emissions in the ruminant livestock sector, followed by fertilizer and methane emissions from paddy rice. Regionally, agricultural mitigation is a larger share of total land-use emissions abatement in the USA and China, compared to the rest of the world, and, within agriculture, disproportionately from reductions in fertilizer-related emissions. The results also show how analyses that only consider regional mitigation, may bias mitigation potential by ignoring global market interactions. For example, USA-specific analyses likely over-estimate the potential for abatement in agriculture. Finally, we note that this general equilibrium framework provides the research community with a practical methodology for explicit modeling of global land competition and land-based mitigation in comprehensive assessments of greenhouse gas mitigation options.     

Transaction costs of carbon offset projects: A comparative study

The land-use change and forestry sector can be a cost-effective contributor to climate mitigation in at least three ways: providing carbon offsets through carbon sequestration in biomass and soils, reducing emissions of methane and other greenhouse gases, and producing biofuels that replace fossil fuels. The presence of carbon markets should help encourage these activities; however, most carbon trades to date have occurred in the energy sector. A major obstacle to carbon trades from land-use systems is the presence of high transaction costs of converting a carbon offset into a tradable commodity, so the prevailing market carbon prices may not provide enough incentive for adoption. This paper presents a model of the exchange of carbon offsets between a project developer and a group of landholders. The model is solved to derive project feasibility frontiers that show the minimum number of contracts necessary to make a project feasible at any given carbon price. The model is applied to two case studies (smallholder agroforestry in Indonesia and partial reforestation of family farms in Australia) under two types of contract (purchase of carbon flows and rental of carbon stocks). The paper concludes by identifying possible strategies to reduce transaction costs while maintaining project integrity.     

市场互联性、关系型合约与经济转型

本文通过将单一市场的关系型合约推广到互联的关系型合约,刻画了社会分工程度(市场范围)与微观治理机制(基于关系型合约的治理还是基于正式合约的治理)之间的互动关系:基于何种合约来治理受市场范围的影响,市场范围越小,关系型合约越重要,正式合约越不重要;反之则反是。特别地,从这个视角看,计划经济向市场经济转型的过程,是劳动分工不断深化和市场范围不断扩大的过程,在微观治理上是一个从互联的关系型合约不断向正式合约过渡的过程。中国的渐进式改革之所以成功,很大程度上是由于渐进式改革使原来自我实施的关系型合约没有受到很大程度的破坏,在正式合约缺位时,关系型合约仍然能够维持社会经济的运行;俄罗斯的激进式改革几乎在一夜之间破坏了自我实施的关系型合约的可维持性,而短期内又不可能建立依赖正式合约的治理模式,出现了微观治理失效。本文还解释了中国经济在缺乏正式的法律和产权体系下取得骄人绩效的“悖论”,即由于关系型合约的自我实施性,因而并不需要相应的正式制度安排。本文总体上支持“后华盛顿共识”的渐进改革路径,并为其提供了动态的微观机制。     

A transaction cost model of contract choice: The case of petroleum exploration

The growing literature on transaction costs posits that the structures of contracts involving exchange under uncertainty are influenced by the costs incurred by the contracting parties prior to, as well as after, a contract is signed. This research investigates the contractual responses to the substantial uncertainty attending the exchange of rights to underground petroleum deposits. It develops a transaction cost model to explain the payment structure found in these contracts. The model identifies the major transaction costs associated with the payment types used in oil and gas exploration contracts, including ex ante measurement costs and ex post production inefficiencies, and explains their effect on contract structure. Testable implications concerning variations in the payment structure of petroleum exploration contracts are generated and tested using data from private oil and gas mineral rights leasing contracts in four western states. The study has direct public policy significance in that it delineates the implications of different payment structures of oil and gas leasing contracts. These implications can be used to evaluate proposals to reform federal oil and gas leasing policies. In addition, while there has been considerable analysis of federal offshore oil and gas leasing contracts, there has been a dearth of research on private onshore oil leasing practices. This study helps to fill this empirical void.     

Opportunity Cost Estimation of Ecosystem Services

Land-use changes rank among the most significant drivers of change in ecosystem services worldwide. The enhancement of important services such as biodiversity and carbon sequestration requires modifications in land-use that can lead to the decline in other ecosystems services. Targeting the most suitable areas for particular land-uses based on comparative advantages requires opportunity cost information across large regions. This is a demanding task because the input–output relations are ill-defined and determined by spatially heterogeneous operational and environmental conditions. To address this methodological challenge, this paper presents a two-stage semiparametric technique that enables multi-dimensional production possibility frontiers to be estimated from data provided by biophysical models. Specific advantages of the proposed frontier approach are its flexibility with regard to assumptions on the convexity of the production possibility set and its freedom from any separability assumptions for the input–output space and the space of the heterogeneous background variables. The method is illustrated for a case study of 18 Central and Eastern European countries. Results show that opportunity costs of changes in ecosystem services provision differ substantially between regions. Those areas having already relatively high levels of carbon sequestration have a comparative advantage in sequestering carbon. Opportunity costs of biodiversity are generally positively related with the level of biodiversity up to a turning point after which they are negatively related. To illustrate the policy consequences of the observed economies and diseconomies of scope we compare two management regimes to illustrate the potential gains from smart land management.     

Geographically explicit global modeling of land-use change, carbon sequestration, and biomass supply

This study aims to determine whether carbon sequestration policies could present a significant contribution to the global portfolio of climate change mitigation options. The objective is to model the effects of policies designed to induce landowners to change land use and management patterns with a view to sequester carbon or to reduce deforestation. The approach uses the spatially explicit Dynamic Integrated Model of Forestry and Alternative Land Use (DIMA) to quantify the economic potential of global forests. The model chooses which of the land-use processes (afforestation, reforestation, deforestation, or conservation and management options) would be applied in a specific location, based on land prices, cost of forest production and harvesting, site productivity, population density, and estimates of economic growth. The approach is relevant in that it (1) couples a revised and updated version of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios with the dynamic development of climate policy implications through integration with the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE); (2) is spatially explicit on a 0.5° grid; and (3) is constrained by guaranteeing food security and land for urban development. As outputs, DIMA produces 100-year forecasts of land-use change, carbon sequestration, impacts of carbon incentives (e.g., avoided deforestation), biomass for bioenergy, and climate policy impacts. The modeling results indicate that carbon sequestration policies could contribute to a significant part of the global portfolio of efficient climate mitigation policies, dependent upon carbon prices.     

Measuring transnational leakage of forest conservation

Forest conservation in one country can influence the degree of conservation or deforestation in other countries because of international linkages of the forest products industry and markets and a lack of global coordination. Thus leakage and offsetting losses of environmental quality may be present. This paper develops an analytical framework for measuring this leakage and estimates its magnitude via general equilibrium modeling. We find that the magnitude of leakage depends upon the price elasticities of supply of and demand for forestry products across the countries and degree of cooperation in forest conservation. We estimate that a significant portion (42%-95%) of the reduced forestry production implemented in a country/region can be transferred to elsewhere, offsetting environmental gains. Leakage generally diminishes as more countries cooperate, but cooperation among only a few countries does not always dramatically reduce leakage. Thus forest conservation efforts and associated environmental quantity gains in a country or group of countries can be seriously undermined in terms of global net conservation gain in the absence of effective global cooperation. Our results also point to the importance of taking leakage into account in evaluating local or regional forest carbon sequestration projects.     

Converting Forests to Farms: The Economic Benefits of Clearing Forests in Agricultural Settlements in the Amazon

Agricultural expansion into tropical forests is believed to bring local economic benefits at the expense of global environmental costs. The resulting tension is reflected in Brazilian government policy. The national agrarian reform program has settled farm families in the Amazon region since the 1970s, with the expectation that they will clear forests in order to farm the land. On the other hand, recent Brazilian policy initiatives seek to reduce deforestation to mitigate climate change. We contribute to the policy debate that surrounds these dual goals for the Amazon by estimating the marginal effects of new agricultural land on the full income and assets of farm settlers over a 13-year period from 1996 to 2009. Using micro panel data from agrarian settlements where forest was being rapidly cleared, and controlling for factors that would otherwise confound the relationship, we estimate the effect of converting forest to agriculture on total household income to estimate the opportunity cost of conserving forest. Our measure of income reflects any re-allocation of resources by utility maximizing households and any productivity effects due to loss of forest ecosystem services. The estimated effect of new agricultural land on income is positive, but small relative to the income per hectare of previously cleared land. However, we show that income increases investment in physical assets, which raises households’ income generating capacity and future accumulation of assets. Thus, while there is only a small immediate income gain from clearing more forest, the long-term effects on wealth are still substantial. This demonstrates that given the right conditions, conversion of forest to agricultural land can be an impetus for asset accumulation by smallholders. It also highlights the importance of considering the indirect and long-term welfare benefits of new agricultural land when assessing the opportunity costs of forest conservation.     

Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies for Global Climate Change with an Intertemporal Model of the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors

A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a" least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.     

Economic dynamics and forest clearing: A spatial econometric analysis for Indonesia

This paper uses a large panel database to investigate the determinants of forest clearing in Indonesian kabupatens since 2005. Our study incorporates short-run changes in prices and demands for palm oil and wood products, as well as the exchange rate, the real interest rate, land-use zoning, forest protection, the estimated opportunity cost of forested land, the quality of local governance, the poverty rate, population density, the availability of communications infrastructure, transport cost, local rainfall and terrain slope.The econometric results highlight the role of dynamic economic factors in forest clearing: significant roles for lagged changes in all the short-run economic variables—product prices, demands, the exchange rate and the real interest rate—as well as communications infrastructure, some types of commercial zoning, rainfall and terrain slope. We find no significance for the other variables, although our measure of protected-area status is too general for strong conclusions to be drawn about the empirical relationship between forest clearing and protection. It is also possible that the insignificance of transport cost in our results is due to collinearity with our proxy for communications cost, and/or the offsetting effects of transport cost on the direct profitability of forest clearing (negative) and the effectiveness of local forest regulation (positive).Our results strongly support a model of forest clearing as an investment that is highly sensitive to expectations about future forest product prices and demands, as well as changes in the cost of capital (indexed by the real interest rate), the relative cost of local inputs (indexed by the exchange rate), and the cost of land clearing (indexed by local precipitation). By implication, the opportunity cost of forested land fluctuates widely with changes in international markets and decisions by Indonesia's financial authorities about the exchange and interest rates. Our results suggest that forest conservation programs are unlikely to succeed if they ignore such powerful forces.     

Forest management for timber and carbon sequestration in the presence of climate change: The case of Pinus Sylvestris

Climatic changes will affect the dynamics of a forest ecosystem. Consequently, carbon sequestration costs can only be estimated correctly if changes in climatic conditions are considered. This article determines the changes in mitigation costs of an optimal forest management regime in the presence of climatic changes and varying prices, and takes account of substitution processes between timber production and carbon sequestration at the stand level. The study demonstrates that in the presence of climate change the sequestration costs per ton of carbon increase with higher amounts of carbon sequestered per hectare. This finding can be used to identify a threshold for the amount of sequestered carbon per hectare below which the costs of carbon sequestration are hardly influenced by climate change.     

The effect of forest land use on the cost of drinking water supply: A spatial econometric analysis

Forest land use is often associated with the protection of water resources from contamination and the reduced cost of drinking water supply. This study attempted to measure the value of the forest on the quality of water resources from a contingent market, namely drinking water supply, by estimating variations in drinking water costs as a function of variations in land uses. Spatial correlations were taken into account because of the use of different geographical scales (i.e., water service area and land uses) and the potential existence of organizational and technological spillovers between water services. We found a significant negative effect of forest land use on water costs. We found no evidence of spatial spillovers concerning the management regime but did find that factors related to the scarcity of resources in neighboring water services have an impact on water costs.     

SEQUESTERING CARBON ON AGRICULTURAL LAND: SOCIAL COST AND IMPACTS ON TIMBER MARKETS

Planting trees to sequester carbon has broad political appeal. However, effects of a major tree planting program on the agricultural sector and on timber markets are unclear. This paper examines social costs of sequestering carbon in tree plantations on U.S. agricultural land and investigates harvesting's effects on timber prices and on private timber producers' welfare. The analysis links a model of the U.S. agricultural sector that includes the land base in major production areas with a model of the U.S. softwood economy. Using current data on planting, maintenance, and harvesting costs for tree plantations and carbon sequestration rates, the models estimate the price and welfare effects of alternative carbon sequestration goals. Results indicate a range of outcomes. Consumers pay higher prices for food as farmers divert land from crops to trees. However, wood products consumers gain from falling timber prices if the trees enter commercial markets. Agricultural producers and landowners gain from higher commodity prices, but private forest owners lose. Large tree planting programs imply that policymakers must compensate private commercial tree planting to prevent farmers from displacing present tree plantations.     

Incentive Contracts for Natura 2000 Implementation in Forest Areas

The implementation of nature conservation policy is often based on contracts between public authorities and landowners. In this article, we model incentive contracts in forest areas in the presence of adverse selection and moral hazard when the conservation outcome is uncertain ex ante but observable ex post. The results show that agents who are likely to achieve a higher level of conservation should be offered a contract where transfers depend on the final outcome, with a bonus for a high ecological level of the forest. When conservation measures are correlated with forest management, we show that the contractual measures involve distorted transfers. We analyse the payment mechanisms used in France and Denmark in the context of the Natura 2000 policy. These mechanisms result in overcompensation and under-performance since they do not take the problem of moral hazard and natural variability into account.     

Selling two environmental services: In-kind payments for bird habitat and watershed protection in Los Negros, Bolivia

Marketing several environmental services from a single area can help access diverse sources of funding and make conservation a more competitive land use. In Bolivia's Los Negros valley (Department of Santa Cruz), bordering the Amboró National Park, 46 farmers are currently paid to protect 2774 ha of a watershed containing the threatened cloud-forest habitat of 11 species of migratory birds. In this payment for environmental services (PES) scheme, annual contracts prohibit tree cutting, hunting and forest clearing on enrolled lands. Farmer-landowners as service providers submit to independent yearly monitoring, and are sanctioned for non-compliance. Facilitated by a local NGO, Fundación Natura Bolivia, one service buyer is an international conservation donor (the US Fish and Wildlife Service) interested in biodiversity conservation. The second service users are downstream irrigators who likely benefit from stabilized dry-season water flows if upstream cloud forests are successfully protected. Individual irrigators have been reluctant to pay, but the Los Negros municipal government has on their behalf contributed ~ US$4500 to the scheme. The negotiated payment mode is annual quid pro quo in-kind compensations in return for forest protection. Predominantly, payments are made as “contingent project implementation”, transferring beehives supplemented by apicultural training. With regard to service provision, environment committees and education programs have increased awareness in downstream communities of the probable water-supply reduction effect of continued upstream deforestation. External donors have funded subsequent studies providing basic economic, hydrological and biodiversity data, and covered PES start-up (~ US$40,000) and running transaction costs (~ US$3000 per year over the last three years). The greatest challenges in the development of the PES mechanism have been the slow process of building trust between service buyers and providers, and in achieving clear service-provision additionality.     

Fine-scale conservation planning outside of reserves: Cost-effective selection of retention patches at final harvest

Retaining forest patches at final harvest is a key conservation measure in boreal forests, but guidelines for how to increase its cost-effectiveness are lacking. In a study in boreal Sweden, we compared the cost-effectiveness of three different approaches a forest owner may use to select patches: selection based on the conservation value of patches alone, economic cost alone or both of them combined. We also compared the cost-effectiveness of six different common types of patches. Conservation value was measured as species richness of bryophytes and lichens and as structural characteristics of patches. Compared to the selection approach in which both conservation value and cost were used, cost-effectiveness was 5-14% lower when only conservation value was used, depending on how conservation value was measured. On the contrary, using only the economic cost decreased the cost-effectiveness by only 1-2%. Among the patch types, swamp forest areas and deciduous tree groups were cost-effective types to retain. However, the patch types were complementary in their species composition and all hosted unique species. We argue that, ideally, assessments of both conservation values and economic costs of retaining patches should be made prior to harvest to enable planners to make well-informed and cost-effective decisions.     

Comparative costs and conservation of wild species in situ, e.g. orangutans

The extent to which conservation is feasible is constrained by budgets and the financial sacrifice stakeholders are willing to bear. Therefore a possible objective for conserving a species is to minimise the cost of achieving that stated aim. For example, if a minimum viable population (MVP) of a species is to be conserved, the size and type of habitats reserved for this could be selected to minimise cost. This requires consideration of the comparative (relative) opportunity costs of reserving different land types for conservation. A general model is developed to demonstrate this and is applied to the case of the orangutan. In the ecological literature, recommendations for reserving different types of land for conservation have been based on comparisons of either the absolute economic returns they generate if converted to commercial use or on differences in the density of a species they support. These approaches are shown to be deficient because they ignore relative trade-offs between species population and economic conversion gains at alternative sites. The proposed model is illustrated for orangutan conservation.     

Asymmetric information and contract design for payments for environmental services

In contractual relationships involving payments for environmental services, conservation buyers know less than landowners know about the costs of contractual compliance. Landowners in such circumstances use their private information as a source of market power to extract informational rents from conservation agents. Reducing informational rents is an important task for buyers of environmental services who wish to maximize the services obtained from their limited budgets. Reducing informational rents also mitigates concerns about the “additionality” of PES contracts because low-cost landowners are least likely to provide different levels of services in the absence of a contract. Paying low-cost landowners less thus makes resources available for contracts with higher opportunity cost landowners, who are more likely to provide substantially different levels of services in the absence of a contract. To reduce informational rents to landowners, conservation agents can take three approaches: (1) acquire information on observable landowner attributes that are correlated with compliance costs; (2) offer landowners a menu of screening contracts; and (3) allocate contracts through procurement auctions. Each approach differs in terms of its institutional, informational and technical complexity, as well as in its ability to reduce informational rents without distorting the level of environmental services provided. No single approach dominates in all environments. Current theory and empirical work provides practitioners with insights into the relative merits of each approach. However, more theoretical work and experimentation in the laboratory and the field are necessary before definitive conclusions about the superiority of one or more of these approaches can be drawn.