低碳农业发展核心目标:减缓和适应气候变化

减缓和适应是人类应对气候变化行动中两种相辅相成的措施。中国农业在应对气候变化中,减缓和适应同等重要:一方面,农业在减缓气候变化中具有独特的作用;另一方面,农业适应气候变化比减缓气候变化更为现实的迫切。积极发展低碳现代农业实现减排增汇,中国农业生态系统可以作为一种非常重要的固碳增汇措施,纳入全球CO2减排措施中去。中国低碳农业在减缓和适应气候变化中具有巨大潜力。     

气候变化对欧洲农业的系统影响及对策

本文基于欧洲气候变化的历史演进与未来情景,系统分析了气候变化对欧洲农业的历史和潜在影响,提供了欧洲农业应对气候变化的适应性措施,及其对中国未来农业发展的启示和建议。     

Adaptation to Climate Change: Commitment and Timing Issues

We study the impact of timing and commitment on adaptation and mitigation policies in the context of international environmental problems. Adaptation policies present the characteristics of a private good and may require a prior investment, while mitigation policies produce a public good. In a stylized model, we evaluate the impact of strategic commitment and leadership considerations when countries with different attitudes towards environmental cooperation coexist. We obtain equilibrium abatement and adaptation levels and environmental costs under partial cooperation for various timing and leadership scenarios. Crucially, global environmental costs suffered by countries are found to be greater when adaptation measures can be used strategically.     

中国适应气候变化的科技政策变迁与展望

适应气候变化的科技政策是该领域科技活动的重要保障。以2007—2020年期间212份适应气候变化的中央科技政策文件作为分析样本,采用共词和聚类方法,分析不同时期适应性科技政策主题聚焦点演进和变化。研究结果显示,“技术研发”“技术成果应用推广”“资金保障”“监测应急能力发展规划”“水利科技发展支持”等主题发生了明显的政策逻辑变迁。整体来看,适应性科技政策呈现密切结合国家气候适应战略演进而深化发展的特点,未来中国适应气候变化的科技政策应进一步引导适应技术科研方向,助力气候适应科技成果转化,提供财政、信息等资源支持。     

The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Findings from Households in Vietnam

This paper examines farm household-level impacts of climate change by examining the relationship between climatic variables and Vietnamese agricultural output. The Ricardian technique is applied with panel data which accounts for both adaptation strategies and household characteristics. This study proposes a two-stage Hsiao model to correct for collinearity between climatic variables and individual effects. The results show that in the dry season, increases in temperatures are beneficial to all farms in the warmer southern regions, while increases in precipitation will damage only irrigated farms in the Central and South regions. The impact of higher temperature in the wet season is similar, except that it will negatively affect net revenue of irrigated farms in the long run. More rainfall in the wet season will increase net revenue in the North region only. Finally, this study combines the estimated results with future climate scenarios to predict how future changes in climate will affect farmers on aggregate.     

适应气候变化障碍研究综述

应对气候变化已经成为全世界共同面临的紧迫任务,适应气候变化是更为现实的重要选择,而减少或消除适应气候变化障碍是适应过程的关键。适应气候变化障碍是指在挖掘适应气候变化潜力的过程中,通过政策、计划或措施能够消除或减少的约束。文章在阐述适应气候变化障碍研究意义的基础上,初步总结了国内外对适应气候变化障碍及其适应对策的相关研究,简单介绍了一种适应气候变化的研究方法——社会生态系统诊断框架,最后对未来的研究方向和发展动态提出了相应的建议,希望可以为未来适应气候变化的研究提供理论参考。同时,强调在现有政策框架和发展规划中,兼顾适应气候变化需要,以减少适应成本和适应障碍。     

地方政府处在应对气候变化的最前线——澳大利亚《地方政府气候变化适应行动》述评

近年来,气候变化成为与人类社会发展和生存密切相关的全球性热点。澳大利亚受到气候变化的严重影响。然而,长期以来,澳大利亚政府在应对气候变化方面一直落后于整体发达国家。自2006年开始,以《地方政府气候变化适应行动》的出台为标志,澳大利亚政府的态度发生了积极的变化。文章对澳大利亚应对气候变化影响的相关背景和举措以及澳大利亚环境和水资源部出台的《地方政府气候变化适应行动》报告进行了介绍和评述,并结合该报告观点及我国实际情况提出了相应的启示和建议。     

气候变化下中国生态适应性设计在国土空间规划中的策略及本土化：定义、理念框架与解读

长期气候变化和极端天气事件给中国城乡可持续发展带来考验,而城乡地区自身的适应性规划体系不完善及生态环境恶化让城市适应性提升面临压力。因此,以“无悔”设计和可持续发展为基础的生态适应性(Ecological-based Adaptation,EbA)理念和措施逐渐引起国内学者的研究和关注。在收集和总结相关国际案例及应用的基础上,对EbA理论、理念及研究进展进行深入分析和探讨。以生态适应性规划为着眼点,对分析的成果进行归纳,从研究和决策2个方面提出新的本地化解读、未来研究趋势及应用特点。同时结合中国开放空间规划体系的改革现状,提出适用于中国城乡可持续发展及韧性体系构建的本土化理念框架和相关建议。     

Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change

The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios.     

基于气候变化脆弱性的适应规划:一个福利经济学分析

气候变化是典型的具有复杂性、长期性和外部性的全球环境问题。气候变化的福利影响及其成本效益评估是适应气候变化的决策基础。本文基于气候变化科学的基本概念和福利经济学理论,构建了柏格森-萨缪尔森社会福利函数,评估了气候变化背景下的社会经济脆弱性与经济福利风险,提出了适用于中国国情的适应规划路径。首先,基于社会福利核心要素的气候变化脆弱性评估结果表明,气候敏感性是影响中国不同地区福利水平和脆弱性的重要因子。其次,依据气候敏感性与适应能力将中国30多个省份划分为三类适应区:发展型适应优先区、增量型适应优先区、发展型与增量型并重地区。第三,采用地区加权方法测算了中国2016—2030年RCP8.5气候变化情景下的气候灾害经济损失及福利风险,提出依据能力原则、需求原则或最脆弱地区优先原则分别由地方政府、部门或中央主导的适应规划设计。     

气候变化对德国农业的影响与相关对策

本文分析和研究了气候变化对德国农业和林业的正反两方面的影响,肯定了德国农业和林业对气候保护、减少温室气体排放的积极作用。阐述了德国为减少温室气体排放采取的相应措施,如改进传统农业,扩大现代农业,大力生产可再生长原料,促进可再生能源的利用。这些做法对我国发展现代农业,促进农业和林业领域节能减排具有积极的参考作用。     

Managing Environmental Risk in Presence of Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia

This study investigates the impact of climate change adaptation on farm households’ downside risk exposure in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The analysis relies on a moment-based specification of the stochastic production function. We use an empirical strategy that accounts for the heterogeneity in the decision on whether to adapt or not, and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm. We find that past adaptation to climate change (i) reduces current downside risk exposure, and so the risk of crop failure; (ii) would have been more beneficial to the non-adapters if they adapted, in terms of reduction in downside risk exposure; and (iii) is a successful risk management strategy that makes the adapters more resilient to climatic conditions.     

Supplementing Domestic Mitigation and Adaptation with Emissions Reduction Abroad to Face Climate Change

In this paper we focus on a long-term dynamic analysis of the optimal adaptation/mitigation mix in the presence of a pollution threshold above which adaptation is no longer efficient. We account for accumulation in abatement capital, greenhouse gases, and adaptation capital in order to better capture the arbitrage between abatement and adaptation investments. Pollution damages arise from the emissions due to the country consumption but also from the emissions of the rest of the world (ROW). A pollution threshold is then introduced, above which adaptation is no longer efficient. We obtain that if this threshold is lower than the steady-state level of pollution, there is no way for the modelled economy to avoid it. In particular, such a situation will appear if the ROW’s emissions are high. We then show that CDM may be a means to avoid a pollution threshold above which adaptation becomes of no use.     

Valuing Provisioning Ecosystem Services in Agriculture: The Impact of Climate Change on Food Production in the United Kingdom

This paper provides an estimate of the contribution of the ecosystem to the provisioning services generated by agriculture. This is achieved by valuing the changes in productivity generated by a marginal alteration in ecosystem inputs. As an example, we consider the variation in rainfall and temperature projected by the recent UK Climate Impacts Programme. The analysis implements a spatially explicit, econometric model of agricultural land use based on the methodology recently developed by Fezzi and Bateman (Am J Agric Econ 93:1168–1188, 2011). Land use area and livestock stocking rates are then employed to calculate farm gross margin estimates of the value of changes in provisioning ecosystem services. Findings suggest that the variation in ecosystem inputs induced by climate change will have substantial influence on agricultural productivity. Interestingly, within the UK context climate change generates mainly positive effects, although losses are forecasted for those southern areas most vulnerable to heat-stress and drought.     

气候变化的经济分析

气候变化在经济学上提出了独一无二的挑战,这是迄今为止范围最大、规模最大的市场失灵现象。文章探讨了经济发展与气候变化之间的互动关系：从市场失灵的角度切入,通过阐述气候变化对经济发展的影响,探讨政府和企业对气候变化所产生的影响做出的反应,从而提出中国应对这种“市场失灵”现象应采取的措施。     

Uncertainty and Climate Change

Uncertainty is pervasive in analysis of climatechange. How should economists allow for this? And how have they allowed for it? This paperreviews both of these questions.