中国在东亚地区贸易结构中的地位和作用——基于零部件贸易的研究

本文从零部件贸易的角度分析了中国在东亚贸易结构中的地位。文中计算了中国和其他东亚经济体1992～2005年的零部件贸易额,在大量事实数据的基础上得出结论:中国在东亚地区以零部件进口为主,而与区域外市场之间以最终产品出口为主。同时,随着中国经济逐渐融入到东亚地区的生产网络中,东亚地区的"三角贸易"模式发生了转变:中国成为东亚地区的出口平台,进口来自于区域内较发达经济体的中间产品零部件,进行装配加工后将最终产品销往区域外市场。     

Is Informal Job Experience of Youth Undermining their Labor-Market Prospects in Transition Economies?

The objective of the paper is to investigate if previous informal employment experience of youth affects later labor-market outcomes in transition economies. We consider the effects on employment, decent job and wages. Some theories suggest that previous informal job experience may extend informality later and negatively impact decent employment and wages, while others argue that informal jobs may provide training, networks and working attitudes to young workers hence improving their formal employment and wage potential. We rely on the newly-produced School to Work Transition Surveys for seven transition economies of Southeast Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Our results robustly suggest that early informality of youth is negative for the later labor-market outcomes. However, for the wage, there is limited evidence that the negative effect potentially turns positive for long informal job experiences. The negative effect of informal job on later outcomes is stronger for females, while any differences between the two regions of transition economies are neither systematic nor robust.     

Competitiveness and Integration of Product Markets

This article develops a two-country, two-sector model with imperfect competition in one sector and asymmetric labor market structures in the sense that trade unions have wage bargaining power in one country whereas the labor market is competitive in the other country. We use a new approach to model product market integration, and it turns out that the unionized country gains from integration in terms of welfare, and, if the initial level of integration is relatively low, experiences an increase in employment and investment.     

The educational upgrading of Japanese youth, 1982–2007: Are all Japanese youth ready for structural reforms?

Are all Japanese youth ready for the structural reforms proposed as a supply-side policy of Abenomics? To answer this question, we assess how well Japanese youth have coped with the labor market’s long-term structural changes, induced primarily by deepening interdependence with emerging economies and rapid technological progress over the last three decades. We examine the role of educational upgrading on the labor-market outcomes of youth between the ages of 25 and 29, using six waves of micro data from the Employment Status Survey spanning from 1982 to 2007. The analysis demonstrates that the demand growth for skilled labor relative to unskilled labor has been met by the educational upgrading of youth through the expansion of tertiary education, including education in vocational schools. Youth left behind the trend of educational upgrading, however, have suffered significantly from decreasing employment opportunities and deteriorated working conditions.     

Price adjustment in open economies

The adjustment of product prices in open economies is analyzed by use of a model encompassing different product market structures and quarterly data for Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. In general, support is found in favor of a specialized production model implying that prices are affected by internal and external factors. Price adjustment displays substantial inertia and is in the short run driven by real shocks to both supply and demand, as well as being characterized by nominal rigidities, whereas in the long run relative prices are driven solely by supply variables.     

Information service and integration of cereal markets in Burkina Faso

The cereal market of Burkina Faso was liberalised in 1992. Atthe same time a market information service (SIM) was createdto collect data on the supply and demand conditions and, inparticular, to disseminate weekly the cereal prices of regionalmarkets by radio. The article evaluates to what extent the existenceof this service contributed to the integration of the market.A cointegration analysis, and more precisely a comparison ofthe results for the whole period under study (1990-5) with theresults for the period 'after the SIM' (1992-5), leads to theconclusion that the impact of the diffusion of prices on marketintegration is moderate. In general, SIM does not have a significantinfluence on the integration of cereal markets.     

中国国内商品市场整合研究——基于需求—价格关系的视角

文章借鉴Gluschenko（2010）、Gluschenko和Karchevskaya(2010)的思想,首次采用基于需求—价格关系视角的方法对中国1992-2011年国内市场整合水平进行了测度并分析了市场整合的影响因素及各因素对市场整合水平变化的贡献。结果显示,国内市场整合的发展在1992-2001年经历了较大波折,而在2002-2011年出现了较大的改善与提高;尽管各地区的市场整合水平存在一定差距,但不同地区市场整合的同步程度却较高,并且地区间的这种差距呈现出逐渐缩小的趋势。市场整合水平随着外商直接投资、基础设施水平的提高而提高,随着失业率、财政支出、国有经济比重的提高而降低,它与外贸依存度存在着倒U型关系。基于Yun（2004）的分解方法进行的研究表明,基础设施的改善对市场整合水平提高的贡献最大,因此,加大基础设施建设是加速国内市场整合进程的必然选择。     

Structure of Comparative Advantage of China and India： Global and Regional Dynamics

This paper investigates the extent of competition between China and India in the world and ASEAN markets. The analysis is undertaken using the concept of revealed comparative advantage, relative market shares, long‐term trend analysis and statistical tests of convergence. In the context of the ASEAN market the evaluation of competition between India and China has been undertaken with special reference to the prior implementation of the ASEAN‐China Free Trade Area relative to the ASEAN‐India Free Trade Area. The results suggest that threat perceptions at the product level might currently prevail for both economies from each other across all sectors in both markets even though the intensity of the competitive threat varies across products. However, long‐term trend analysis shows that the patterns of comparative advantage of India and China are evolving along divergent paths and, therefore, competition between the two economies might not be a major issue.     

Financial Integration Without Financial Development

Atlantic Economic Journal - This paper shows that, in a two-country model, where the two economies differ in their level of financial market development, financial integration has sizable short-...     

COMPETITIVE ISSUES IN THE TAIWANESE BANKING INDUSTRY: MERGERS AND UNIVERSAL BANKS

This paper investigates scale economies and scope economies in the Taiwanese banking system, looking beyond the market‐power (MP) and efficient‐structure (ES) hypotheses. Given the existence of overall economies of scale and the positive value of expansion path sub‐additivity, we conclude that there might be large increases in profits following mergers. Moreover, since the profit‐structure relationship after financial reform is determined by the relative‐market‐power hypothesis, this consolidation trend will not necessarily decrease the social benefit for Taiwanese consumers. With regard to scope economies and product‐specific economies of scale, we are unable to recommend whether Taiwanese banks should develop as specialized banks or diversified banks in the future. Finally, we find that risk indicators play an important role in explaining the observed variation in bank profitability, and present evidence that default risk and leverage risk have negative effects on the profits of banking, although the effect of portfolio risk is uncertain.     

供应商整合对新产品绩效的影响——技术不确定性的调节作用

文章研究供应商整合对新产品绩效的影响,并检验技术不确定性对二者关系的调节作用。通过大样本调查收集数据,运用结构方程模型对整体结构模型进行拟合分析和假设检验,运用分层回归分析法检验技术不确定性的调节作用。研究结果表明:灰箱供应商整合对新产品引入速度、新产品创新性均具有正向影响;黑箱供应商整合对新产品引入速度具有负向影响,对新产品创新性具有正向影响;技术不确定性对灰箱供应商整合与新产品引入速度、灰箱供应商整合与新产品创新性之间关系均具有正向调节作用;技术不确定性对黑箱供应商整合与新产品引入速度之间关系具有负向调节作用,对黑箱供应商整合与新产品创新性之间关系无显著调节作用。     

Labor market in the Mari El Republic

The article deals with the problem of transforming the labor market in the Mari El Republic. A model for forecasting the population’s employment has been proposed and forecasting calculations of regional labor-market indicators have been carried out. Ways to achieve a balance of supply and demand of labor in the current economic conditions have been outlined.     

The Persistence of Dominant‐Firm Market Share: Raising Rivals' Cost on the New York Stock Exchange

To explain the persistence of dominant New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) market share in stock trading of listed securities from 1992 to 2002, we develop a dominant‐firm price leadership model and hypothesize that NYSE specialists raised the costs of rival market makers. The model predicts that natural and induced cost advantages will determine the NYSE's market share vis‐à‐vis the regional exchanges, electronic trading systems, and NASDAQ dealers. Empirically, NYSE market share increases with economies of scale and scope, abnormal price volatility, high asymmetric information, and with trading practices that raise rivals' costs, such as failure to display limit orders that bettered the existing quotes.     

内幕交易与证券价格的有效性

本文基于中国证券市场的实际情况，修正了Michael和Kathleen（1992）等提出的非竞争模型，探讨内幕交易对证券价格有效性的影响，研究信息和被内幕交易排挤的市场专家数目之间的关系。研究结果表明内幕交易降低了证券价格的有效性，监管的关键在于促使信息在市场参与者之间的均匀分布。     

Cross-border portfolio investment in the APEC region

This paper aims to establish a firm understanding of the structure and determinants of bilateral portfolio investment among APEC economies. The paper demonstrates that APEC membership has a significantly positive relationship with financial transactions among members. That is, as compared with non-members, APEC member economies purchase more equities and long-term bonds from other APEC member economies. However, the APEC membership effect is not uniform: the positive effect of APEC membership is mainly due to the overshadowing role of East Asian countries. This finding is especially evident for equities, rather than for long-term bonds. This paper also shows that a large part of the regional financial market integration in the APEC region is due to strong linkages of intra-regional goods trade in the region.     

Earnings and education in China's transition to a market economy Survey evidence from 1989 and 1992

Analyses of returns to educational investments in China, based on 1981, 1985, and 1986 data, have yielded surprisingly low and sometimes negative rates. Given the extent of wage compression in prereform China, it is expected that human capital accumulation be increasingly recognized and rewarded as the Chinese economic reforms progress and market forces permeate the work place. Econometric analysis of newly available data, gathered in 1989 and 1992, reveals that returns to education for new labor force entrants, for workers who have recently obtained their current positions, for young people, for workers in recently established firms, and for collective, joint-venture, and private-sector workers are in the range expected of East Asian market economies with well-functioning labor markets.     

China–Japan–United States integration amid global rebalancing: A computable general equilibrium analysis

Using a global general equilibrium trade model, this paper assesses the long-term implications of global rebalancing for Asian economies and explores the benefits of China–Japan–United States (US) integration. The analysis suggests that consumption evaporation, a growth slowdown in the US, and the consequent current account correction would force China, Japan, and other East Asian economies to undergo substantial structural adjustments. A combination of domestic reform aimed at boosting service sector productivity and external liberalization aimed at fostering broader economic integration will be critical for East Asian economies to facilitate their economic rebalancing and sustained growth. Our global computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis suggests that China and Japan need to strengthen their economic ties with the US while at the same time bringing other East Asian economies into this integration process.     

Measuring Global and Regional Trade Integration in Terms of Concentration of Access

I apply concentration measures from the inequality literature—the Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient—to the measurement of global and regional integration, and show that these can be derived from the theoretical gravity model in the presence of unequal costs of access for firms from different locations to aparticular market. Overall, comparing nine economies, I find that the United States is the most globalized on these measures, and India and China are the least globalized. The smaller EU economies, which are very open on standard measures, should probably be viewed as regionalized rather than globalized. JEL no. F10, F15, C49     

Modeling the Dollarization: A Case Study for Cambodia,Laos, and Vietnam

Abstract

We model the dollarization of three transitional economies in south-east Asia: Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam which have been experiencing the transition and reform process of the economy for the time period 1992–2007. Based on Rojas-Suarez (IMF Working Paper WP/92/33, 1992) work, we examine whether the holdings of US dollars depend on the effect of the expected rate of depreciation in market exchange rates as expected by the model. Also, we examine whether the effects are proportional to the degree of the dollarization of the economy. The empirical results present that there are positive effects (expected) of the expected rate of depreciation in market exchange rates on the holdings of US dollars. The coefficients are statistically significant only for Cambodia and Laos, not for Vietnam. The effect is strongest for Cambodia, and this may reflect the fact that Cambodia's dollarization is stronger than those of Laos and Vietnam.     

国内市场一体化与企业出口附加值提升——对构建双循环新发展格局的启示

基于构建国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进新发展格局的启示,文章通过采用商品价格信息数据和微观企业数据,全面系统考察了国内市场一体化与企业出口附加值所反映的双循环机制关系。研究表明：国内市场一体化有利于促进企业出口附加值提升,工业品部门的国内市场一体化对企业出口附加值提升影响更大,工业投入品的国内市场一体化所产生的效果最为突出。国内市场一体化对营商环境较好地区企业和一般贸易企业的出口附加值提升效果更加明显。研究意味着构建双循环新发展格局是后疫情时代应对全球经济衰退的重要战略选择,未来一段时期,推动形成以全国市场一体化为基础的国内经济循环体系,可以作为中国企业提升出口附加值促进国际循环的重要途径。