“索洛剩余”与外资对中国经济增长的技术贡献率实证分析

改革开放以来,特别是20世纪90年代以来,我国稳居发展中国家和地区最大的外商直接投资东道国,并多年成为仅次于美国的世界第二大外商直接投资输入国。外资的引入对于弥补经济建设初期国内资金短缺,提升产业结构,增加就业和促进出口等起到了重要作用,但是其对我国经济增长的技术贡献率却十分有限。本文借助于“索洛剩余”,对外资在我国经济增长的技术贡献率进行了实证分析,得出了同现实一致的结论。     

人民币汇率变动与中国经济增长实证分析

理论回顾 汇率是国际货币的相对价格,汇率包括汇率升贬值和汇率水平与波动幅度之间安排的汇率制度.在市场经济中,汇率也是由供求决定的.而外汇的供求无外乎来源于国际收支的各项活动,虽然国际收支有三大项目,但实质只有经常项目和资本项目两大部分,在经常项目中常常以贸易收支代表经常项目,所以汇率变动往往由贸易收支和资本流动决定.汇率与经济增长之间的关系包括两方面.一方面是汇率升/贬值与经济增长之间的关系,经济增长通过什么决定汇率水平,而汇率如何反作用于经济增长,所以汇率与经济增长之间的关系是双向的.另一方面是汇率制度,因为汇率制度是一国货币当局的政策选择,所以只考察汇率制度对经济增长作用,不考察经济增长对汇率的影响.     

区域经济一体化与经济增长收敛性:实证分析

本文以三个不同类型的区域经济一体化组织为例，对区域经济一体化的长期增长效应——对区域内经济增长收敛性的影响进行了实证分析。通过成员国人均收入的收敛趋势的检验，本文发现不同的一体化组织的成员结构对其经济增长收敛的影响各不相同。“北-北”模式的区域组织，其成员国的人均收入呈收敛趋势；“南-南”型区域组织建立之后，成员国的人均收入呈发散趋势：而“南-北”型一体化组织对增长收敛性的影响还有待进一步考察。这一发现，不仅有助于分析各类一体化组织的增长效应，还有助于预测不同一体化组织的发展前景，并对一体化政策的选择有着重要的参考意义。     

中国财政支出结构与经济增长的实证分析

经济增长是包括财政政策在内的宏观经济政策的重要目标,为了推动经济持续增长,除了适当的财政支出总量政策外,更重要的是高效率的财政支出结构政策。不同的公共支出项目,不同的财政支出结构政策,具有不同的经济增长效应。因而财政支出结构是政府宏观调控的重要内容,合理的财政支出结构是推动经济和社会发展的重要保证。财政支出结构是否合理,直接关系到财政支出本身的效率和经济效率。在中国逐步淡出积极财政政策的背景下,中国财政支出的未来走向受到了广泛的关注。目前财政政策的着力点,应在前几年推进总量的基础上转向重视财政支出结构的优化,从而最大限度地发挥财政政策拉动经济增长的潜能。     

中国财政支出结构与经济增长的实证分析

经济增长是包括财政政策在内的宏观经济政策的重要目标，为了推动经济持续增长，除了适当的财政支出总量政策外，更重要的是高效率的财政支出结构政策。不同的公共支出项目。不同的财政支出结构政策，具有不同的经济增长效应。因而财政支出结构是政府宏观调控的重要内容。合理的财政支出结构是推动经济和社会发展的重要保证。财政支出结构是否合理。直接关系到财政支出本身的效率和经济效率。     

外商直接投资对我国经济增长贡献的实证分析

<正>一、问题的提出改革开放以来,我国引进外商直接投资数量和规模不断增长20世纪90年代起,我国利用外资规模呈加速扩大趋势,无论是在发展中国家或地区,还是在全球范围内都处于突出的地位。外资的大量进入为我国经济的快速增长做出了积极的贡献。那么外商直接投资对我国经济增长贡献程度究竟有多大,     

The impact of foreign direct investment and human capital on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese cities

Using a panel of Chinese cities over the period 1991–2010, we examine the determinants of economic growth, focusing on the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and human capital. Consistent with the predictions of a human capital-augmented Solow model, we find that the growth rate (along the path to the steady-state income level) of per capita GDP is negatively correlated with population growth rate and positively correlated with investment rate in physical capital and human capital. We find that FDI has a positive effect on the per capita GDP growth rate and this effect is intensified by the human capital endowment of the city. The latter suggests that one way that human capital contributes to growth is to serve as a facilitator for technology transfers stemming from FDI. Furthermore, we find some suggestive evidence that the FDI-human capital complementary effect is stronger for technology-intensive FDI than for labor-intensive FDI. Our results are robust to alternative measures of human capital, model specifications, and estimation methods.     

进口、外商直接投资与经济增长:基于中国数据的经验分析

改革开放20多年来,我国的进口与外商直接投资逐年增加,为我国经济的快速发展发挥了重要的作用,通过分析进口促进经济增长的内在机制之后,本文采用一个扩展的新古典生产函数,利用我国1982～2003年的年度时间序列数据,从实证角度对外商直接投资、尤其是进口对我国经济增长的促进作用进行了考察。研究结果表明,作为我国经济开放的两个重要内容——进口与外商直接投资,对我国的经济增长都有重要的推动作用。     

Debt and development: The role of foreign capital in economic growth

Capital flows, whether between individuals or nations, are dominated by a two- fold paradox. Borrowers are initially primarily interested in obtaining sufficient funds for their needs, but once they have obtained a loan, their indebtedness becomes their principal concern. While a loan is being negotiated the lenders usually have the upper hand, but once it is made, they become dependent on the borrowers for repayment with interest. Their power to withhold future loans becomes their only real measure of control. Borrowing and lending has costs and benefits, and these balance out only in exceptional cases for both the borrowing and lending countries and the principal social groups within them. The debate about the impact of international capital flows accordingly has a long history. This paper begins with a historical perspective, and then reviews the principal characteristics of capital flows to developing countries since the 1950s. A discussion of the impact of capital flows on development, with a particular emphasis on trends in developing country indebtedness, follows. A brief examination of borrowing and debt management issues for borrowers, lenders and the international community concludes the paper.     

FDI、对外贸易对中部经济增长影响的实证分析

本文利用中部地区1993年至2007年年度样本数据,应用协整理论及格兰杰因果关系检验等现代计量经济学方法,定量分析了FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明,中部地区经济增长在短期内与对外贸易互为Granger原因,而外商直接投资在短期内与中部经济增长不构成Granger因果关系;经济增长对对外贸易的波动冲击表现出较大的正向效应,而FDI由于地区因素的影响,作用较小,同时方差分解也表明对外贸易在中部经济增长预测误差的方差贡献度中所占比重最大。     

外国直接投资与中国经济增长的实证分析

本文简要介绍了外国直接投资与东道国经济增长的相关理论,并对外国直接投资(FDI)与中国经济增长之间数据关系进行了分析,进而利用协整检验技术,验证外国直接投资与中国经济增长之间是否具有长期的稳定关系。最后给出研究结论和启示。     

Trust and economic growth: a robustness analysis

This paper analyses the robustness of results on the relationshipbetween growth and trust previously derived by Knack and Keefer(1997) and Zak and Knack (2001) along several dimensions, acknowledgingthe complexity of the concept of robustness. Our results showthat the Knack and Keefer results are only limitedly robust,whereas the results found by Zak and Knack are highly robustin terms of significance of the estimated coefficients and reasonablyrobust in terms of the estimated effect size. The improvementin robustness is caused by the inclusion of countries with relativelylow scores on trust (most notably, the Philippines and Peru).Overall, our results point at a relatively important role fortrust. However, the answer to the question how large this payoffactually is depends on the set of conditioning variables controlledfor in the regression analysis and—to an even larger extent—onthe underlying sample.     

Development of financial intermediation and economic growth: The Chinese experience

Using Chinese provincial data from 1985 to 1999 and applying recent GMM techniques developed for dynamic panels, this paper examines how the development of financial intermediation influences China's economic growth during the post-1978 reform period. Our econometric results show that China's financial intermediation development contributes to its rapid economic growth through two channels: first, the substitution of loans for state budget appropriation and second, the mobilization of household savings. Loan expansion, however, does not contribute to growth since loan distribution by financial intermediaries is inefficient. Deep financial sector reform aimed at correcting this inefficiency is desirable, and is expected to sustain China's economic development in the future.     

Export performance and economic growth causality: An empirical analysis

The cointegration and causal relationship between export growth and economic growth is investigated for the Nordic economies. On the basis of Johansen's technique and the augmented Granger causality tests, the evidence shows that these macroeconomic aggregates are causally related in the long run for each economy. Granger causality is unidirectional, running from economic growth to export growth in Denmark, and bidirectional in Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The established bidirectional causality suggests that the expansion of exports is an integral part of the economic growth process.