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为分析我国交强险各因素对索赔频率的影响,以2016年广东、河南、湖北、山东四省的保单数据为样本,采用广义可加模型(GAM)对其保单中的驾驶员年龄、汽车车龄和汽车重量进行非参数分析,并对公路里程数等变量进行参数分析。结果表明:索赔频率有明显的地区差异,公路里程数对索赔频率有正向的影响,其中除汽车车型对索赔频率没有影响外,其余变量均有显著影响。 相似文献
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广义线性模型作为非寿险定价的经典模型,在非寿险定价中得到了广泛的应用。近年来,以提升算法为代表的机器学习算法在保险领域取得了很好的效果,为保险产品定价提供了一种新的选择。本文将提升算法思想分别融入到回归树模型和广义线性模型(GLM)中去,用得到的新模型对我国车险索赔频率进行预测建模分析,并与传统的回归树模型和GLM进行比较。结果表明,加入提升算法后传统车险索赔频率建模模型的效果得到了很大的改善,并且在不存在过拟合的前提下,随着模型深度和迭代次数的增加,模型的效果也在不断优化。 相似文献
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我国《民事诉讼法》对于虚假诉讼的规制以案外人权利保护为核心。在规则实施过程中暴露了权利保护滞后、手段单一、成本高、难度大等方面的问题。欲解决这些问题,必须转换思路,统一民、刑对于虚假诉讼范围的界定,将"虚假行为"主观故意"与"妨害司法秩序"作为虚假诉讼的构成要件,对于"单方实施的虚假诉讼"与"串通实施的虚假诉讼"采取不同的治理方法与程序。同时注意虚假诉讼的民刑衔接程序的设计。 相似文献
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《农村金融研究》2021,(7)
论文主要分析了家庭的开放性人格特征对金融市场参与的影响,采用了"大五"人格特征维度下的开放性维度衡量开放性人格特征,基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,发现家庭的价值观越开放,家庭参与金融市场投资的可能性越高;收入越高,开放性人格特征对家庭金融市场参与的影响就越大。此外,开放性人格特征的边际效应从东部到西部递减,东北地区例外。论文还发现了从开放性人格特征到家庭金融参与的一条重要影响路径——课外阅读。最后指出,政府要重视开放性人格在金融市场投资中的作用,培养具有开放性人格的青年,为解决家庭金融市场参与率低、中国家庭储蓄率居高不下等问题提供一个可行的思路。 相似文献
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外商直接投资对出口贸易的影响是国际经济理论界研究的热点问题,本文采用协整方法和广义差分修正模型,运用1989~2005年以来的全国数据,重新分别检验了我国FDI对出口贸易的影响。研究发现,FDI对我国出口贸易存在长期的显著的促进作用,FDI流入带来出口的增长,是我国出口导向政策以及产业结构升级调整,更广泛深入参与国际分工的结果。 相似文献
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本文使用2013年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,从微观层面探讨家庭人口结构对家庭人身保险需求的影响。Probit和Tobit实证结果显示,家庭老年人口占比与家庭人身保险需求负相关,这意味着,人口老龄化对人身保险产品的需求会起到抑制作用。家庭少儿人口占比与家庭人身保险需求则呈正相关,这显示少儿人口的增加会推动人身保险市场的发展。家庭就业者占比对家庭人身保险需求有抑制作用。同时,缩小的家庭规模有助于增加对人身保险产品的需求。我们的研究对深刻理解当下中国面临的人口老龄化问题及计划生育政策有一定的参考价值。 相似文献
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Longitudinal modeling of insurance claim counts using jitters 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Modeling insurance claim counts is a critical component in the ratemaking process for property and casualty insurance. This article explores the usefulness of copulas to model the number of insurance claims for an individual policyholder within a longitudinal context. To address the limitations of copulas commonly attributed to multivariate discrete data, we adopt a ‘jittering’ method to the claim counts which has the effect of continuitizing the data. Elliptical copulas are proposed to accommodate the intertemporal nature of the ‘jittered’ claim counts and the unobservable subject-specific heterogeneity on the frequency of claims. Observable subject-specific effects are accounted in the model by using available covariate information through a regression model. The predictive distribution together with the corresponding credibility of claim frequency can be derived from the model for ratemaking and risk classification purposes. For empirical illustration, we analyze an unbalanced longitudinal dataset of claim counts observed from a portfolio of automobile insurance policies of a general insurer in Singapore. We further establish the validity of the calibrated copula model, and demonstrate that the copula with ‘jittering’ method outperforms standard count regression models. 相似文献
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在我国,机动车交通事故责任强制保险第三者是否享有直接求偿权的争议并未因《保险法》的修订而停止,本文从合同相对性理论的突破和责任保险理论基础的变化入手,分析了赋予第三者直接求偿权的现实意义,并从法理角度论证了该项权利的性质。最后,结合各国的立法现状,对我国现行相关立法和司法实践进行评析,同时提出相应对策和应注意的问题。 相似文献
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财险公司未决赔款准备金波动风险及其防范对策 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
未决赔款准备金作为财险公司最大的负债项目之一,通过不断提高数据的真实性与有效性,加强未决赔款准备金的波动风险的管理,有利于我国财险公司与财险行业的稳健经营与持续发展。未决赔款准备金波动风险产生的主要原因有数据的可靠性、精算评估方法的波动性以及宏观管理因素与经营环境的变化。通过切实提高管理水平、提升公司的精算技术、加强精细化经营理念的宣导以及加强非寿险行业的精算标准建设,将能有效地防范未决赔款准备金波动风险。 相似文献
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中国财产保险业巨灾损失赔付能力实证研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
中国社会已步入一个历史性的风险高度累积的发展阶段,在这样的环境中,以损失补偿为主要功能的财产保险业是否有足够的损失赔付能力就成为一个不能不考虑的重要问题。本文基于Cummins,Doherty和Anita(2002)的保险赔付能力度量模型,引入1998年~2007年中国保险业经营数据,在改进后的损失对数正态分布假设下,对2007年年末时点上在中国大陆经营财产保险业务的39家保险公司以及全行业整体巨灾损失赔付能力进行了实证分析。结果显示,在800亿到2000亿元的巨灾损失区间内,中国财产保险业的赔付效率在68.36%以上,全行业巨灾赔付能力缺口巨大,且损失幅度越大短缺的幅度越大。本文认为,造成这种赔付能力短缺的主要原因在于全行业资本与盈余的低水平以及再保险市场发展的严重滞后。 相似文献
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This paper investigates the ordering properties of the largest claim amounts and sample ranges arising from two sets of heterogeneous portfolios. First, some sufficient conditions are provided in the sense of the usual stochastic ordering to compare the largest claim amounts from two sets of independent or interdependent claims. Second, comparison results on the largest claim amounts in the sense of the reversed hazard rate and hazard rate orderings are established for two batches of heterogeneous independent claims. Finally, we present sufficient conditions to stochastically compare sample ranges from two sets of heterogeneous claims by means of the usual stochastic ordering. Some numerical examples are also given to illustrate the theoretical findings. The results established here not only extend and generalize those known in the literature, but also provide insight that will be useful to lay down the annual premiums of policyholders. 相似文献
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A very general class of dependent Sparre Andersen models with Coxian claim sizes (e.g. Landriault et al. 2014) is considered in this paper. The moments of the time to ruin are studied under this class. An analytical form is provided for the moments, which involves solving linear systems of equations. Numerical examples are then considered to further study the properties of the mean and variance of the time to ruin. 相似文献
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《Journal of Accounting and Public Policy》2019,38(4):106669
Existing research provides evidence that providers of capital (banks, public debt, and equity) all increase the expected return on securities after the initiation of a shareholder lawsuit. Many of these lawsuits are dismissed or settled with trivial monetary penalties, which suggests that an across-the-board permanent increase in the cost of capital is misguided. After estimating the probable outcome of a shareholder lawsuit using only information available at the time the shareholder lawsuit is filed, we study the resolution of shareholder lawsuits to determine if market participants adjust their expected return after a case is resolved. We find an increase (decrease) in the ex ante cost of equity capital when there is a surprise settlement (dismissal), which is consistent with an efficient market. Further, we present evidence consistent with equity market participants monitoring the progress of shareholder lawsuits prior to resolution. Overall, our results suggest that firm ex ante cost of equity capital only changes after the resolution of a shareholder lawsuit if the outcome of the case is different than initially predicted. 相似文献