The usefulness of accounting estimates for predicting cash flows and earnings

Accounting estimates and projections potentially improve the relevance of financial information by providing managers a venue to convey to investors forward-looking, inside information. The quality of financial information is, however, compromised by the increasing difficulty of making reliable estimates and forecasts and the frequent managerial misuse of estimates. Given the ever-increasing prevalence of estimates in accounting data, particularly due to the move to fair value accounting, whether these opposing forces result in an improvement in the quality of financial information is among the most fundamental issues in accounting. We examine the contribution of accounting estimates embedded in accruals to the quality of financial information, as reflected by their usefulness in the prediction of enterprise cash flows and earnings. Our out-of-sample prediction tests indicate that accounting estimates beyond those in working capital items (excluding inventory) do not improve the prediction of cash flows. Estimates do, however, improve the prediction of next year’s earnings, though not of subsequent years’ earnings. We conclude that the usefulness of accounting estimates to investors is limited and provide suggestions for improving the usefulness of estimates.     

The persistence of earnings and cash flows and the role of special items: Implications for the accrual anomaly

We argue that high accruals are likely to be the outcome of rules with an income statement perspective, while low accruals are likely to be the outcome of rules with a balance sheet perspective, and that this has implications for the properties of earnings. Specifically, earnings persistence is affected both by the magnitude and sign of the accruals. Accruals improve the persistence of earnings relative to cash flows in high accrual firms, but reduce earnings persistence in low accrual firms. We show that the low persistence of earnings in low accrual firms is primarily driven by special items. We then show that special item-low accrual firms have higher future stock returns than other low accrual firms. This is consistent with investors misunderstanding the transitory nature of special items. Further analysis reveals that special item-low accrual firms have poor past performance and declines in investor recognition (analyst coverage and institutional holdings). Special items continue to explain future returns after controlling for these factors.     

Management accounting innovations for rationalizing the cost of services: The reassessment of cash and accrual accounting

ABSTRACT

Management accounting can be a useful tool in austerity government because it produces information about the costs of public services and can be used for informed decision-making. Spanish local governments are required to submit data on the cost of their services to central government, which publishes this information online. The calculation of costs is based on budgetary cash accounting instead of accrual accounting; therefore cash accounting is being used for decision-making and accrual accounting has no role in this process. This paper critically analyses the innovation from three perspectives: the use assigned to the cost information in the legal framework; the opinion of academics and experts; and the perception of professionals about the usefulness of the information produced with the new system.     

Interfirm differences in earnings variability: an analysis of fundamentals,cash flows and accruals

Prior research shows that the time‐series variability of corporate earnings affects forecasting accuracy and corporate risk, yet little is known about the determinants of earnings variability. This study analyses interfirm differences in earnings variability. Large‐sample evidence shows how the ratio of accrual variability to cash‐flow variability varies across a cross‐section of firms and how these components and the correlation between contemporaneous cash flows and accruals are related to key economic fundamentals.     

The role of financial analysts in stock market efficiency with respect to annual earnings and its cash and accrual components

This study examines biases in stock prices and financial analysts' earnings forecasts. These biases take the form of systematic overweighting or underweighting of the persistence characteristics of cash versus accrual earnings components. Our evidence suggests that stock prices tend to overweight and financial analysts tend to underweight these persistence characteristics. Furthermore, we find that analysts' underweighting attenuates stock price overweighting. However, we find little evidence that the overweighting in stock prices attenuates analyst underweighting. This study brings a new perspective to the literature regarding the disciplining role of financial analysts in capital markets.     

The efficiency of earnings forecast pricing

Prior research has suggested that the information content associated with analysts’ forecast revisions is not immediately incorporated into a firm’s stock price. We find that the apparent anomaly is concentrated in low-priced firms that receive favorable earnings revisions. Variables (such as analyst coverage and celebrity status) cannot reliably explain variations in price formations. Finally, we find that the magnitude of the post-forecast revision drift has decreased after 2002. Overall, our results suggest that the analysts’ forecast revisions anomaly can be explained by a combination of random statistical variations and transaction costs.     

The mixed attribute model in SFAS 133 cash flow hedge accounting: implications for market pricing

In this study, we examine the pricing of cash flow hedge adjustments reported in other comprehensive income (OCICF), under the mixed attribute model in SFAS 133 Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities. Our OCICF pricing investigation integrates empirical research on the derivatives use that gives rise to such mark-to-market adjustments with the accounting information pricing literature. Based on this integration, we generalize mispricing theory for the SFAS 133 mixed attribute model and predict both the direction and magnitude of OCICF pricing. Screening on U.S. multinationals with ex ante exposure to currency risk, we provide evidence of OCICF mispricing in the expected direction, consistent with the notion that SFAS 133 cash flow hedge accounting results in a mixed attribute problem (Gigler et al. in J Account Res 45:257–287, 2007). Moreover, we find that both OCICF gains and losses are inversely related to future cash flows and of the expected magnitude, consistent with our predictions based on valuation theory (for example, Ohlson in Rev Account Stud 4:145–162, 1999). Our results support the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s concern that the SFAS 133 mixed attribute model does not provide the information necessary for investors to understand the net economic effects of derivatives use (FASB in Accounting for financial instruments and revisions to the accounting for derivative instruments and hedging activities. FASB, Norwalk, 2010).     

Using accounting equation analysis to teach the statement of cash flows in the first financial accounting course

Understanding the statement of cash flows requires that students have some knowledge of accrual-basis accounting. This means that coverage of the statement of cash flows is deferred until late in the introductory financial accounting course and related textbooks, a time when student motivation and retention may be waning. The timing of statement of cash flow coverage is unfortunate for two reasons. First, the statement of cash flows is an important topic that all business students need to understand. Second, most students understand cash flows at the start of their financial accounting class, so there is no reason to defer coverage of this topic.This paper describes a user-oriented, pedagogical approach to integrating the statement of cash flows throughout the first financial accounting course. The essence of this approach is the use of an expanded accounting equation with temporary cash accounts corresponding to the major categories on the statement of cash flows. Directly capturing cash flow information simplifies the preparation of the statement of cash flows.     

The effect of cash flow forecasts on accrual quality and benchmark beating

When analysts provide forecasts of both earnings and operating cash flow, they also implicitly provide a forecast of total operating accruals. We posit that this increases the transparency and the expected costs of accrual manipulations used to manage earnings. As a consequence, we predict and find that accrual quality improves and firms’ propensity to meet or beat earnings benchmarks declines following the provision of cash flow forecasts. We also predict and find that firms turn to other benchmark-beating mechanisms, such as real activities manipulation and earnings guidance in response to the provision of cash flow forecasts.     

The usefulness of operating cash flow and accrual components in improving the predictive ability of earnings: a re‐examination and extension

We examine whether the components of accruals and operating cash flows improve the predictive ability of earnings for forecasting future cash flows. Unlike most previous studies, we avoid data estimation errors and sample self‐selection bias because we exploit data from Australia where reporting of actual cash flow components had been mandatory since 1992. We show that accrual components and operating cash flow components together are more useful than (i) earnings, (ii) operating cash flows and total accruals and (iii) the combination of operating cash flows with accrual components in forecasting future cash flows. These results are robust to several contextual factors, including the length of the operating cash cycle, industry membership, firm profitability and firm size.     

The relevance of earnings and cash flows in a heavily regulated industry: Evidence from the Greek banking sector

This study examines the informational quality of annual accounting earnings within Greek banking institutions taking into consideration the most significant risks facing by such firms and specifically interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and solvency risk, alongside with the persistence of earnings and bank size as significant determinants of ERCs. Data analysis over a period of ten years (1995-2004) revealed that earnings have higher incremental importance in explaining stock return movements compared to cash flows since earnings change has been found to affect stock returns positively. Additionally, interest rate risk has a positive but not significant impact on the return-earnings relation but on the contrary solvency risk, credit risk and liquidity risk proved to have a negative impact on the valuation process for both small and big-sized banks. Finally, tests on the incremental informativeness of cash flows when earnings are transitory provide significant results suggesting that investors seek for alternative measures of banks' performance when earnings are characterized by increased extremity but inversely cash flows and earnings seem to be equally value relevant when investors evaluate big-sized banking institutions. The results are generally robust to the specification of the empirical models and the research design employed in our study.     

Volatility of accounting earnings

The theoretical derivation of the volatility of accounting earnings is an important topic. Not only does it concern the uncertainty in earnings measurement, but it also allows for an objective comparison between different accounting allocation procedures. An accounting allocation that yields a lower volatility of earnings can be desirable because it makes periodic earnings better estimates of underlying long-term earnings of a firm over time. Based on this information, accounting professionals can make more rational judgements of the most appropriate accounting method to be used in preparing financial reports. This paper shows how to calculate the volatility of earnings under uncertainty across a range of different scenarios.     

Impact of an accounting environment on cash flow prediction

This study investigates the impact of an accounting environment on the performance of cash flow prediction models. It is hypothesized that the cash flow model by Barth, Cram, and Nelson [Acc. Rev. 76 (2001) 27] performs well in countries where the accruals are used mainly to correct cash flows to better reflect current profitability of the firm, i.e., in countries with high information content of accruals. The results suggest that the model performs consistently across countries, except in Germany. As hypothesized, the impacts of the explanatory variables are similar in market-oriented countries with separated financial accounting and taxation, with strong shareholder protection and legislation based on common-law origin, i.e., in countries with high quality of accruals. By contrast, the impacts are different in countries with low quality of accruals. The results imply that the cash flow prediction model by Barth et al. [Acc. Rev. 76 (2001) 27] can be used in different kinds of accounting environments. However, the exact parameter values are dependent on the accounting environment.     

Independent director cash compensation and earnings management

This study examines the impact of independent directors’ cash compensation on firms’ financial reporting quality using a sample of Chinese listed companies from 2002 to 2008. Unlike in the U.S. where most listed firms provide stock-related compensations to outside directors, Chinese listed companies compensate independent directors with cash only. This context offers a cleaner setting for examining the effects of independent director cash pay on earnings management. Our study documents a positive association between independent director cash compensation and the magnitude of earnings management. This suggests that compensating independent directors with higher cash pay compromises their independence and reduces their effectiveness in financial reporting oversight. Our results are robust to an array of sensitivity checks. These findings have important implications for both investors and policy makers by showing that independent directors’ cash compensation is also a significant determinant of financial reporting quality.     

Discretionary accounting choices and the predictive ability of accruals with respect to future cash flows

Using a sample of restatement firms and a meet-or-beat model to classify firms as making discretionary accounting choices for opportunistic meet-or-beat (OP-MB) reasons, we show that originally reported earnings and accrual components are less predictive of future cash flows relative to the restated numbers. We find the opposite is true for firms classified as making discretionary accounting choices for non-OP-MB reasons. We consider a number of competing explanations for these latter results. Our findings are most consistent with the informational hypothesis, weakly consistent with conservative-motivated efficient contracting hypotheses, but inconsistent with opportunistic contracting and misapplication/errors of GAAP explanations.     

Capital budgeting with continuous cash flows: An application of calculus to managerial accounting

Project valuation in managerial accounting often involves discounting approximately continuous cash flows. Calculus is the natural mathematical tool for dealing with continuous flows and is a required part of the business curriculum in most major universities. Typical managerial accounting textbooks provide students with little opportunity to use calculus in solving accounting problems. Discounting continuous flows is a natural medium for introducing calculus into managerial accounting courses. This article illustrates the application of calculus to capital budgeting. Explicit but simplified consideration of inflation and taxation leads to interesting conclusions while maintaining enough simplicity for upper-division managerial accounting presentation     

The Federal Government of Germany's circumspection concerning accrual budgeting and accounting

In 2010, the German federal government, renowned for its fiscal rectitude, abandoned its accrual-based budgeting and accounting reform, certainly the output-based budgeting component of it and possibly the rest. While the German federal ministry of finance supported the reform, parliamentarians feared that the change from an input to an output orientation to the budget, together with the reduction of the number of individual appropriations, would result in a loss of their control over the budget and the government's finances. The global banking crisis certainly increased, and may well have triggered, these fears.     

The impact of audit quality on real and accrual earnings management around IPOs

We examine the relation between audit quality and the earnings management activities of IPO firms. The impact of high quality auditors on real earnings management has been researched in a number of settings e.g. SEOs. However, to date, there has been no work on the effect of high quality auditors on real activities-based manipulation around IPOs. We examine UK IPOs between 1998 and 2008 and find evidence that high quality auditors constrain the use of real activities manipulation that occurs via the management of discretionary expenses. We also find evidence, consistent with prior research, that high quality auditors constrain the manipulation of discretionary accruals. Crucially, we find IPO firms audited by high quality auditors undertake sales-based manipulation in order to manage earnings upward at the end of the IPO year. The presence of high quality auditors is not, therefore, sufficient to constrain all forms of earnings management.