贸易开放、经济增长与人力资本——基于面板门槛模型的研究

文章使用1997~2012年的中国省级面板数据,运用面板门槛模型,考察贸易开放对经济增长的促进作用是否依赖于人力资本。实证结果显示,贸易开放与经济增长的关系因人力资本水平的不同而表现出显著的区间效应:人力资本水平较低时,贸易开放与经济增长负相关;人力资本水平较高时,二者显著正相关。这一结果说明,要想更大程度地发挥贸易开放对经济增长的促进作用,加强人力资本积累是前提保障之一。     

Trade Openness, Capital Mobility, and the Sacrifice Ratio

This paper develops and evaluates empirically the implications of a theoretical model of an open economy in which variations in both trade openness and capital mobility can influence the sacrifice ratio. Key predictions forthcoming from the model are that both forms of globalization can independently affect the sacrifice ratio, once the influences of the level of central bank independence and the degree of wage stickiness in nations’ economies are taken into account. Examination of cross-country data encompassing 58 disinflations for 16 countries yields evidence consistent with these essential predictions of the theoretical framework.     

中国贸易开放与代际间收入流动影响分析

文章利用1997～2015年间7次中国健康与营养调查数据(CHNS)构建了家庭层面的代际收入流动指标,从代际间收入流动视角考察地区贸易开放对代际不平等问题的影响。结果表明:贸易开放会促进代际间收入流动,推动子辈向高于父辈的收入等级攀升,同时在一定程度上能够阻碍子辈向低于父辈的收入等级流动,缩小了代际间收入差距。贸易开放对代际间收入流动在城乡存在异质性,整体上贸易开放对城镇子辈代际间收入向上流动有更强的促进作用。代际间收入流动的提升归功于贸易开放带来的职业变动和受教育程度的提高,这一结论对中国贯彻实行对外开放政策、推动城镇化进程、促进代际机会平等以及应对逆全球化思潮有重要的政策意义。     

我国贸易开放度测评

本文回顾近年国外有关贸易开放度的主要度量方法,分析了它们的特点和不足,在此基础上对我国改革开放以来几个重要贸易开放度进行了实际测算,同时考察了它们之间的相关性.     

Trade Openness and Growth: Who Benefits?

We investigate the relationship between economic growth andforeign trade, testing whether the benefits of trade vary overtime and across countries. Our results confirm previous findingsthat specialization in primary exports is bad for growth. Whiletrade openness promoted convergence in the 1960s and 1970s,we find that since 1980 the benefits of trade accrued mostlyto the richer economies, with little benefit to the less developedeconomies. Most of the dynamic benefits of trade are obtainedthrough productivity growth, with a small contribution comingthrough increased investment.     

Openness,Regional Trade Agreements and Growth: Evidence from Asia*

This paper assesses the relationship between regional trade agreements, trade integration and economic growth in 21 South and South‐East Asian countries over the period from 1980 to 2004. We aim to answer the following questions. First, how does the trade policy of a given country (and countries within the same region) affect a nation's domestic growth? Second, should developing economies in South and South‐East Asia engage in regional trade agreements (RTA) or move towards broad liberalization? Our results show that openness of either a single country or of its neighbors does not affect a nation's growth and that the impacts of RTA are unclear (if not detrimental to growth in some cases, once endogeneity is accounted for). Panel Granger‐causality tests running from openness to growth yield mixed results and some conclusions depend on the particular subsample under scrutiny.     

Bilateral Trade Agreements*

Bilateral Trade Agreements (BTAs) have been proliferating. Why are they so popular? What are their impacts on multilateralism and the world trade system? The article identifies the general and specific factors driving the growth in BTAs, and examines how BTAs in general and different types of BTAs are affecting the world trade system. Although the sheer number of BTAs is fragmenting the world trade system, the impact of individual BTAs often depends on their underlying motivation. The article also portrays scenarios for the future landscape of world trade and possible responses. Is the consolidation of BTAs into region‐wide agreements a solution or simply a new problem? How can we multilateralise bilateralism and repair the world trade system? The article attempts to answer these questions, with or without Doha.     

贸易开放与经济增长:只是线性关系吗

针对大多数经验文献所采用的贸易开放与经济增长之间存在线性关系的假设,本文考察了贸易开放影响长期经济增长的非线性效应。模型中贸易开放通过产出效应与技术外溢效应两条渠道影响了经济增长。竞争性均衡结果表明,贸易开放的增长效应依赖于消费偏好、要素禀赋、研发效率以及技术差距等参数的综合作用,因而贸易开放促进经济增长这一结论只在特定参数范围内成立,一般情形下贸易开放对经济增长的影响是非线性的。基于中国29个省市面板数据的估计结果表明,贸易开放与经济增长的非线性关系表现为倒U型曲线,而且贸易开放对中国不同区域的经济增长效应存在显著差异。     

产业内贸易理论视角下的中国——东盟双边贸易

随着中国-东盟双边贸易结构的不断调整，产业内贸易所占的比重日益扩大，发展趋势逐渐增强，用产业内贸易理论来解释我国与东盟之间的产业内贸易问题就越来越具有说服力，产业内贸易理论已经成为研究我国与东盟双边贸易关系的一个新视角。     

贸易开放对中国碳排放影响的门槛效应分析

理论机制分析认为,贸易开放会通过经济发展水平、人力资本及环境管制强度等渠道对我国的环境污染产生影响。鉴于此,文章基于全国30个地区1997~2014年的省际面板数据,构建面板数据门槛回归模型,对贸易开放影响我国人均碳排放的门槛效应进行实证分析。研究结果发现,我国贸易开放显著存在人均收入、人力资本及环境管制强度的门槛效应。具体影响机制为:高水平的人均收入有利于发挥贸易的碳排放抑制效应;人力资本越高,贸易开放促进碳排放减少的效果也越为明显,故各地应稳步推进人力资本积累;适度的环境管制强度有利于贸易的污染减排效应,管制过低或过高都将使得贸易增加碳排放。     

Trade Openness and Vertical Structure: Evidence From Korean Firm-Level Data

Recent theories and empirics suggest that trade openness increases production fragmentation across countries. In this paper, we focus on the relationship between trade openness and firms’ choice of vertical structure. We find supportive, firm-level evidence that upon trade liberalization, firms restructure their organization by downsizing their domestic production processes (i.e. domestic vertical disintegration) and relocating their input production plants to other countries (i.e. cross-border vertical integration).     

中国进出口双边贸易成本测度方法比较研究

目前测度贸易成本广为应用的Novy方法存在实践性缺陷,本文直接基于Andersen多边一般均衡微观需求建模思路,重构可行的出口贸易成本测度方程,并以中国经验数据为例证与原有方法进行了对比分析。结果表明,两种方法存在稳健的测度差异,很有必要认真探讨。近年来中国与主要贸易伙伴双边贸易成本整体加速下降,亚太地区及北方邻国贸易成本明显小于其他地区。     

Openness, Investment and Growth

In the empirical growth literature both investment and opennessto international trade have been identified as important determinantsof growth. These relationships appear to be robust in a numberof specifications. However, Sachs and Warner claim that opennessis such an important determinant of investment that the coefficienton investment will be insignificant in growth regressions, whichalready account for openness. I re-examine this result and canonly support it if I use their model specification and estimationmethod. I suggest that their ordinary least squares estimationsuffers from both endogeneity and omitted variable bias. Usingpanel data analysis, I show that ignoring unobserved country-specificeffects and endogeneity problems cause investment to be insignificant.Estimating the model with the Blundell and Bond system generalmethod of moments estimator, which allows me to address theomitted variable as well as the endogeneity bias, I find thatinvestment is significant in the Sachs–Warner model despitecontrolling for openness. Thus, my regressions confirm thatopenness has a significant, positive effect on income. However,this variable is not so important that it drives investmentout of the model. My re-examination of the Sachs–Warnermodel shows that results from single cross-country growth regressionscan be misleading when unobserved country-specific effects andendogeneity problems are ignored.     

贸易开放度与中国经济增长关系的地区差异研究

为了探求中国的开放政策是否促进了经济增长，以及开放政策对不同区域的作用是否存在差异，本文在相关文献回顾的基础上，运用中国大陆地区28个省、自治区和直辖市（海南、重庆、西藏除外）1984-2004年的相关数据，采用Panel Data模型对贸易开放度与中国经济增长的关系问题进行了实证研究。研究的结论认为开放的对外经济贸易政策促进了中国的经济增长；井且通过研究发现这一促进作用存在着地区差异，对于中西部地区来说，促进作用更大。     

东亚双边出口贸易流量与潜力:贸易引力模型的实证研究

本文利用东亚1995-2004年面板数据建立东亚贸易引力模型,对东亚区域内出口贸易流量的影响因素和潜力进行研究。研究显示,经济规模、中国-中国香港地区更紧密经贸关系(CEPA)、中国-东盟自由贸易区(ACFTA)、经济制度、经济发展水平差距、国际直接投资、国家间地理距离和金融危机是东亚双边出口贸易流量的主要影响因素。     

边境效应、邻近效应与沿边地区双边贸易:基于贸易相对集中视角

边境效应理论认为边境的存在会抑制两地区之间的双边贸易,使得内部贸易相对密集于对外贸易。中国沿边地区对外贸易不仅具有边境效应,而且具有一定的独特性,具体表现为与相邻国家的绝对双边贸易额较小,而相对贸易额较大,即呈现出贸易相对集中的邻近效应。为了探索中国沿边地区对外贸易的边境效应与邻近效应,文章整理了2000～2013年海关数据库以及各省(区)市统计年鉴数据,将边境效应和邻近效应同时纳入引力模型中,检验边境效应和邻近效应对沿边地区双边贸易的影响。实证结果显示:考虑邻近效应后,边境的存在对双边贸易的负影响显著降低,即邻近效应对边境效应具有缓解作用,且出口边境效应明显大于进口边境效应;邻近效应对双边贸易具有显著促进作用,且贸易的相对集中对出口的影响大于对进口的影响;区域异质性对边境效应和邻近效应的作用具有显著影响。