Trade Barriers,Openness, and Economic Growth

Using a long data set on openness and productivity, this article tests the influence of openness on total factor productivity (TFP) growth and per capita growth since 1870 for 16 industrialized countries. It is shown, in simple regressions, that growth is, by and large, independent of openness. However, once the interaction between openness and foreign knowledge is allowed for, productivity is positively affected by openness.     

贸易开放、经济增长与人力资本——基于面板门槛模型的研究

文章使用1997~2012年的中国省级面板数据,运用面板门槛模型,考察贸易开放对经济增长的促进作用是否依赖于人力资本。实证结果显示,贸易开放与经济增长的关系因人力资本水平的不同而表现出显著的区间效应:人力资本水平较低时,贸易开放与经济增长负相关;人力资本水平较高时,二者显著正相关。这一结果说明,要想更大程度地发挥贸易开放对经济增长的促进作用,加强人力资本积累是前提保障之一。     

Trade Openness, Capital Mobility, and the Sacrifice Ratio

This paper develops and evaluates empirically the implications of a theoretical model of an open economy in which variations in both trade openness and capital mobility can influence the sacrifice ratio. Key predictions forthcoming from the model are that both forms of globalization can independently affect the sacrifice ratio, once the influences of the level of central bank independence and the degree of wage stickiness in nations’ economies are taken into account. Examination of cross-country data encompassing 58 disinflations for 16 countries yields evidence consistent with these essential predictions of the theoretical framework.     

中国贸易开放与代际间收入流动影响分析

文章利用1997～2015年间7次中国健康与营养调查数据(CHNS)构建了家庭层面的代际收入流动指标,从代际间收入流动视角考察地区贸易开放对代际不平等问题的影响。结果表明:贸易开放会促进代际间收入流动,推动子辈向高于父辈的收入等级攀升,同时在一定程度上能够阻碍子辈向低于父辈的收入等级流动,缩小了代际间收入差距。贸易开放对代际间收入流动在城乡存在异质性,整体上贸易开放对城镇子辈代际间收入向上流动有更强的促进作用。代际间收入流动的提升归功于贸易开放带来的职业变动和受教育程度的提高,这一结论对中国贯彻实行对外开放政策、推动城镇化进程、促进代际机会平等以及应对逆全球化思潮有重要的政策意义。     

我国贸易开放度测评

本文回顾近年国外有关贸易开放度的主要度量方法,分析了它们的特点和不足,在此基础上对我国改革开放以来几个重要贸易开放度进行了实际测算,同时考察了它们之间的相关性.     

Trade Openness and Growth: Who Benefits?

We investigate the relationship between economic growth andforeign trade, testing whether the benefits of trade vary overtime and across countries. Our results confirm previous findingsthat specialization in primary exports is bad for growth. Whiletrade openness promoted convergence in the 1960s and 1970s,we find that since 1980 the benefits of trade accrued mostlyto the richer economies, with little benefit to the less developedeconomies. Most of the dynamic benefits of trade are obtainedthrough productivity growth, with a small contribution comingthrough increased investment.     

产业集聚、贸易开放与全要素生产率：来自中国省际的证据

文章基于Melitz理论模型,通过引入产业集聚变量,分析了贸易开放与贸易封闭条件下产业集聚对均衡生产率的影响,并使用非线性的门槛回归方法对不同贸易开放条件下产业集聚与全要素生产率的关系以及产业集聚促进全要素生产率提高的具体渠道（技术进步、技术效率）进行了实证检验。结果发现,产业集聚水平的提高对要素生产率的贡献与一国所处的外部经济环境有关。在我国产业集聚促进全要素生产率增长的过程中,有贸易开放的门槛效应的存在,只有在贸易开放水平达到一定阶段之后,产业集聚才会推动全要素生产率的显著提高。在不同省际间,不但产业集聚促进全要素生产率提高的效应大小有所差异,其具体作用渠道也有所不同。在贸易开放水平较高的省份,虽然产业集聚在推动技术进步上的作用十分明显,但其却限制了技术效率的提高,产业集聚对全要素生产率提高的影响主要是通过推动技术进步来实现的。     

Openness,Regional Trade Agreements and Growth: Evidence from Asia*

This paper assesses the relationship between regional trade agreements, trade integration and economic growth in 21 South and South‐East Asian countries over the period from 1980 to 2004. We aim to answer the following questions. First, how does the trade policy of a given country (and countries within the same region) affect a nation's domestic growth? Second, should developing economies in South and South‐East Asia engage in regional trade agreements (RTA) or move towards broad liberalization? Our results show that openness of either a single country or of its neighbors does not affect a nation's growth and that the impacts of RTA are unclear (if not detrimental to growth in some cases, once endogeneity is accounted for). Panel Granger‐causality tests running from openness to growth yield mixed results and some conclusions depend on the particular subsample under scrutiny.     

Bilateral Trade Agreements*

Bilateral Trade Agreements (BTAs) have been proliferating. Why are they so popular? What are their impacts on multilateralism and the world trade system? The article identifies the general and specific factors driving the growth in BTAs, and examines how BTAs in general and different types of BTAs are affecting the world trade system. Although the sheer number of BTAs is fragmenting the world trade system, the impact of individual BTAs often depends on their underlying motivation. The article also portrays scenarios for the future landscape of world trade and possible responses. Is the consolidation of BTAs into region‐wide agreements a solution or simply a new problem? How can we multilateralise bilateralism and repair the world trade system? The article attempts to answer these questions, with or without Doha.     

Financial Openness and Aid for Trade in Developing Countries

This article examines the effect of De Jure financial openness in developing countries on the total amount of bilateral AfT inflows that accrues to these countries. The analysis relies on 126 countries over the period 1995–2015 and uses both the within fixed effects and the two‐step system GMM estimators. Results suggest that the effect of financial openness on AfT depends on the level of financial openness, whose values range between 0 and 100. A positive and significant effect is obtained for levels of financial openness lower than the value 48. In contrast, the effect becomes negative for countries whose level of financial openness is higher than 62. Countries whose degree of financial openness is comprised between 48 and 62 experience no significant effect of financial openness on the amount of the AfT flows that they receive. Overall, the analysis shows that financial openness does matter for the amount of AfT that recipient‐countries receive from donor‐countries.     

贸易开放与经济增长:只是线性关系吗

针对大多数经验文献所采用的贸易开放与经济增长之间存在线性关系的假设,本文考察了贸易开放影响长期经济增长的非线性效应。模型中贸易开放通过产出效应与技术外溢效应两条渠道影响了经济增长。竞争性均衡结果表明,贸易开放的增长效应依赖于消费偏好、要素禀赋、研发效率以及技术差距等参数的综合作用,因而贸易开放促进经济增长这一结论只在特定参数范围内成立,一般情形下贸易开放对经济增长的影响是非线性的。基于中国29个省市面板数据的估计结果表明,贸易开放与经济增长的非线性关系表现为倒U型曲线,而且贸易开放对中国不同区域的经济增长效应存在显著差异。     

Insecure Resources,Bilateral Trade,and Endogenous Predation: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Conflict and Trade

This article analyzes how interstate conflict over resources affects the incentives to trade and how greater trade openness affects the endogenous decisions of arming by enemy countries. We identify conditions under which there is trade between two adversary countries and show that each adversary's arming affects domestic welfare in three different ways. The first is an export-revenue effect, which increases welfare because arming causes export revenue to go up (i.e., there is an arming-induced terms-of-trade improvement). The second is a resource-predation effect, which increases welfare because arming increases the appropriation of a rival country's resource input to produce a consumption good. The third is an output-distortion effect, which reduces welfare because arming lowers the domestic production of civilian goods. Based on these effects, we show circumstances in which greater trade openness reduces the intensity of arming. We also discuss the implications of resource security asymmetry for conflict and trade.     

产业内贸易理论视角下的中国——东盟双边贸易

随着中国-东盟双边贸易结构的不断调整，产业内贸易所占的比重日益扩大，发展趋势逐渐增强，用产业内贸易理论来解释我国与东盟之间的产业内贸易问题就越来越具有说服力，产业内贸易理论已经成为研究我国与东盟双边贸易关系的一个新视角。     

贸易开放对中国碳排放影响的门槛效应分析

理论机制分析认为,贸易开放会通过经济发展水平、人力资本及环境管制强度等渠道对我国的环境污染产生影响。鉴于此,文章基于全国30个地区1997~2014年的省际面板数据,构建面板数据门槛回归模型,对贸易开放影响我国人均碳排放的门槛效应进行实证分析。研究结果发现,我国贸易开放显著存在人均收入、人力资本及环境管制强度的门槛效应。具体影响机制为:高水平的人均收入有利于发挥贸易的碳排放抑制效应;人力资本越高,贸易开放促进碳排放减少的效果也越为明显,故各地应稳步推进人力资本积累;适度的环境管制强度有利于贸易的污染减排效应,管制过低或过高都将使得贸易增加碳排放。     

Trade Openness and Vertical Structure: Evidence From Korean Firm-Level Data

Recent theories and empirics suggest that trade openness increases production fragmentation across countries. In this paper, we focus on the relationship between trade openness and firms’ choice of vertical structure. We find supportive, firm-level evidence that upon trade liberalization, firms restructure their organization by downsizing their domestic production processes (i.e. domestic vertical disintegration) and relocating their input production plants to other countries (i.e. cross-border vertical integration).     

中国进出口双边贸易成本测度方法比较研究

目前测度贸易成本广为应用的Novy方法存在实践性缺陷,本文直接基于Andersen多边一般均衡微观需求建模思路,重构可行的出口贸易成本测度方程,并以中国经验数据为例证与原有方法进行了对比分析。结果表明,两种方法存在稳健的测度差异,很有必要认真探讨。近年来中国与主要贸易伙伴双边贸易成本整体加速下降,亚太地区及北方邻国贸易成本明显小于其他地区。