欧盟贸易协定谈判机制研究

国际协定是欧盟法律体系的重要组成部分。与贸易有关的国际协定,包括贸易协定、合作协定以及联系协定等,也是欧盟贸易政策的重要组成部分。本文通过介绍欧盟贸易协定谈判权的法理依据、各参与主体的法律地位和作用、参与主体内部及之间的权力平衡关系,分析和研究了欧盟贸易协定谈判机制,以利于进一步了解欧盟法律和贸易政策,也有益于发展中欧贸易关系。     

The EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement: Relevance,Content and Policy Implications

On 6 July 2017, after four years of negotiation, the EU reached an agreement with Japan over the main elements of a comprehensive free trade agreement. The breakthrough came at a time when progress on multilateral trade negotiations at the global level seemed out of reach and EU bilateral trade agreements faced strong public opposition. This paper examines the content of the new agreement with a view to global trade dynamics and assesses its main trade policy implications.     

Regionalization of Textile Trade: Evidence from the EU,NAFTA, AFTA,and SAPTA

This study examines the integration effects of four regional trading agreements (RTAs) respectively the EU, NAFTA, AFTA, and SAPTA on textile fabric trade from 1990–2005. A modified gravity model for analyzing textile trade was first generated by the fixed-effects method. Regional dummy variables were then used to identify trade creation and trade diversion effects arising from the RTAs. The results indicated that neither trade creation nor trade diversion effects existed in the EU textile trade. Trade creation in terms of imports was identified in NAFTA and SAPTA. There is no indication of shifting textiles trade from the rest of the world to the member countries with the implementation of these two free trade areas (FTAs). On the contrary, trade diversion was recognised some years after AFTA's enactment. It represents a movement towards free trade and is beneficial for the welfare of the world. This article provides empirical evidence on how textiles trade influenced by the formation of RTAs and elimination of quotas on textiles products.     

EU-Handels- und Investitionspolitik — Freihandelsabkommen,Handelsschutzmaßnahmen und ausländische Investitionen

There are many controversial and contentious aspects of the EU’s trade and investment policy. To evaluate existing and forthcoming free trade agreements, the paper describes their potential economic effects. It analyses the effects of EU trade policy and of the new protectionism of the US.     

The EU's Free–trade Agreements with Developing Countries: A Case of Wishful Thinking?

Since the middle of the1990s the EU has vigorously pursued a policy of replacing non– reciprocal preferences for the developing countries in the Mediterranean, Latin America and with South Africa, with bilateral free–trade agreements. This article examines the content of these agreements and the empirical evidence on their likely effects and concludes that they are ‘broad’ but ‘shallow’ agreements. The static effect are likely to be very small or negative while the potential dynamic gains are problematic, especially regarding the concept of a ‘lock in’ to trade liberalisation, unless there are greater commitments to trade related issues by both sides and especially by the EU.     

The clash of liberalizations: Preferential vs. multilateral trade liberalization in the European Union

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are characterized by liberalization with respect to only a few partners and thus they can potentially clash with, and retard multilateral trade liberalization (MTL). Yet there is almost no systematic evidence on whether the numerous existing PTAs actually affect MTL. We provide a model showing that PTAs hinder MTL unless they entail accession to a customs union with internal transfers. Using product-level tariffs negotiated by the European Union (EU) in the last two multilateral trade rounds we find that several of its PTAs have clashed with its MTL. However, this effect is absent for EU accessions. Moreover, we provide new evidence on the political economy determinants of trade policy in the EU.     

Global agricultural trade liberalization: Is Sub-Saharan Africa a gainer or loser?

This paper analyzes the potential impact of agricultural trade liberalization on Sub-Saharan Africa. We used the Agricultural Trade and Policy Simulation Model to estimate the potential effects of agricultural trade liberalization, mainly in the US and EU, on the world-market prices of agricultural commodities. We then used the estimated price changes to assess the impact of these reforms on net-food importers as well as other Sub-Saharan African countries that enjoy preferential trade agreements with the EU and US. The results indicate that the world market prices of all commodities imported by Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to rise while the prices of the key export commodities of the region would either decline or remain unchanged. Given that the prices of major food commodities are expected to rise, net-food-importing countries will experience increasing import bill, thus leading to welfare loss. Major Sub-Saharan Africa sugar exporters who are beneficiaries of preferential agreements such as the EU sugar protocol and US AGOA initiative will become losers as preferences erode due to global liberalization. Thus, the region is expected to generally become a net loser from the current WTO reform modalities.     

A computable general equilibrium analysis of Brexit: Barriers to trade and immigration restrictions

This paper estimates the economic effects of different types of restrictions on trade and immigration in the United Kingdom after Brexit. Regarding trade restrictions, we focus on UK–EU increases in tariffs and non-tariff barriers. We also analyse the removal of all tariffs in the UK to all its trading partners. Concerning immigration, we run a 5-year cumulative annual reduction in net migrants by 87,000 workers following OECD estimations, which looks realistic even if there is a hard Brexit. The study is conducted using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which allows us to estimate the impact on GDP, welfare, wages and capital remuneration, together with the evolution of aggregate and sectoral output, exports and imports. We obtain a more sizeable negative impact on the UK than other previous influential studies. Trade restrictions would generate welfare reductions between −0.38% and −1.94% for the UK, while they would be between −0.03% and −0.14% in the EU. This is because the EU is a crucial trade partner for the UK, which cannot be easily substituted through trade with other regions in the world. We simulate the impact of both reductions in net inflows and in the stock of EU migrants, accumulated through 5 years. Migration is compatible with wage increases but puts downward pressure on GDPpc. However, migration restrictions would not compensate the overall GDPpc contractions arising from a hard Brexit.     

Legal But Costly: An Analysis of the EU GM Regulation in the Light of the WTO Trade Dispute Between the EU and the USA

In this study, we investigate the new European Union (EU) regulations in the light of the ruling by the World Trade Organization (WTO) panel on the trade in genetically modified crops. To this end, we describe: the basic differences in approaches between the EU and the complaining parties with regard to genetically modified crops, what the main arguments were of the complaining parties as well as the defence of the EU, what the final judgement of the panel was and finally, we describe the current EU regulations. We then analyse to what extent, the arguments and conclusions of the panel still hold regarding the new EU legislation. We find that parts of the current EU legislation, that is, the safety bans as they are currently in place, are in breach of the WTO commitments. Moreover, the new approval procedures have the potential to also break these rules, although whether or not they will, depends on how the European Commission acts. Whether or not the EU will be challenged at the WTO remains an open question, as the decision to fight before the WTO may be more costly than working out new bilateral trade agreements.     

China's New Regional Trade Agreements

This paper discusses the recent regional trade agreements that China has concluded rapidly following accession to the WTO in 2002. Agreements are in place with Hong Kong, Macao, ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand, and are either in negotiation or under discussion with South Africa, Chile, India and the Gulf Cooperation Council. These agreements differ sharply in form and substance, and involve process commitments to ongoing negotiation and cooperation on a wide range of issues. Differences relating to the regional agreements negotiated by the EU and the US are emphasised, as are later potential difficulties these agreements create in moving to an Asian trade bloc centred on them.     

Reforming the WTO to Defuse Potential Trade Conflicts in Genetically Modified Goods

Arguably genetic modification is one of the most important technological change seen to date. Its effects on both human health and the environment are both profound and controversial. In particular consumers, mainly in the EU, have concerns regarding the long term effects of consuming genetically modified foods on their health. They are also concerned regarding the effect that genetically modified organisms will have on bio‐diversity and choice in the long run. Differing regulatory regimes towards genetically modified goods in the US and EU could lead to damaging trade conflicts. Current agreements covering trade in foods such as the SPS and TBT allow a way of diffusing conflicts. The primary aim of these agreements is, however, to prevent governments from protecting domestic producers by applying capricious barriers to foreign competition. This paper sets out to show that rather than modifying these two agreements it would be better to deal with new issues surrounding consumer preferences explicitly by negotiating a new international agreement.     

Bilateral Free Trade Agreements and Customs Unions: The Impact of the EU Republic of South Africa Free Trade Agreement on Botswana

The EU has indicated that after 2008 its trade relationships with developing countries will be dominated by the development of preferential trade agreements. Although not a consequence of the Cotonou Agreement, the free trade agreement between the EU and the Republic of South Africa (EU RSA FTA) was clearly one of the first fruits of this approach to trade relationships. However, there is no evidence that the design of the EU RSA FTA incorporated a comprehensive general equilibrium evaluation of the agreement for either the signatories or the other southern African nations. The analyses reported here indicate that while the EU RSA FTA may substantially benefit the signatories, there are appreciable negative impacts for other states, especially the Republic of South Africa's immediate neighbours. Moreover, the analyses indicate that the structural adjustments for African economies signalled by the FTA are substantial, which implies that there will be substantial economic costs associated with the FTA.     

Comprehensive Trade Agreements: Conditioning Globalisation or Eroding the European Model?

Trade dynamics within the EU are presently pushing it towards deepening globalisation through bilateral comprehensive trade agreements which establish far-reaching rules that govern the bilateral trade relationship. The European Commission has defended these agreements as a vehicle through which to promote world trade in accordance with European values and norms. However, the theory of fiscal federalism and the principle of subsidiarity tell us that one should not centralise decisions at the supranational level which are better taken at the national or regional level when there are different preferences among countries or regions. Consequently, member state and regional competences ought not to be perceived as a mere obstacle to swift trade deals. Rather, they can provide an important checks and balances function with regard to whether EU trade policy is truly working to condition globalisation according to European values and preferences.     

Wie geht es mit dem Brexit weiter?

The UK’s 2016 EU referendum may account for great income losses in the UK. Gabriel Felbermayr et al. use a “new” quantitative trade model to assess various Brexit scenarios. The results broadly show that all EU member states lose, and the relative losses in the UK are about five times those of the average remaining EU country. These findings have important implications for the EU’s negotiation strategy. The outcome depends largely on the decisions about trade relations. Michael Hüther thinks that the UK is heading for an extremely hard Brexit and that it already shows. Therefore, the UK government should work out a consistent industrial policy and make up its mind about its preferences on its future economic relationship with its neighbours. In light of the currently very close and mutually welfare-enhancing business relations between the EU27 and the UK, one of the central tasks and challenges of the Brexit negotiations is undoubtedly the creation of a new supportive post-supranational legal framework governing these economic transactions in the future. Andreas Grimmel argues that the EU’s crises are largely the result of a certain mode of integration that is based on actors’ interests rather than on a comprehensive constitutional framework.     

Making EU Trade Agreements Work: The Role of Rules of Origin

A key element of the EU's free trade and preferential trade agreements is the extent to which they deliver improved market access and so contribute to the EU's foreign policy objectives towards developing countries and neighbouring countries in Europe, including the countries of the Balkans. Previous preferential trade schemes have been ineffective in delivering improved access to the EU market since only a small proportion of the available preferences have actually been utilised. The main reason for this is probably the very restrictive rules of origin that the EU imposes, coupled with the costs of proving consistency with these rules. If the EU wants the ‘Everything but Arms’ agreement and free trade agreements with countries in the Balkans to generate substantial improvements in access to the EU market for products from these countries then it will have to reconsider the current rules of origin and implement less restrictive rules backed up by a careful safeguards policy..     

Trade Effects of the European Union's Service Directive: Contrasting ex ante Estimates with Empirical Evidence

One of the top priorities to improve the European Union's growth performance is the creation of a single market for services. The directive on services adopted by the Parliament and the Council by the end of 2006 aims at removing barriers to the free movement of service providers on the internal market. Previous studies quantified ex ante sizable effects of implementing the directive in its original form. This paper is a first attempt to evaluate ex post the trade effects induced by a directive – which excludes the country‐of‐origin principle – by performing a difference‐in‐difference‐(in‐differences) estimator on a sample of EU‐ and non‐EU countries in the period 2004 to 10. We account for non‐tariff trade barriers and the endogeneity of regional trade agreements and find that the service directive adds to a reallocation of business services trade within the EU. Accounting for the trade effect of past deregulations, the EU directive fosters a deeper integration of the new member states into the European service value‐added‐chain and promotes business service exports from third countries towards the EU significantly more than trade of country pairs in the control group. The reorientation of the EU‐15 towards the new members is in turn associated with less intense intra‐EU‐10 businesses, while business trade between EU‐15 members is not significantly affected.     

Which manufacturing industries and sectors are most vulnerable to Brexit?

When the UK leaves the EU, trade arrangements between the UK and EU will change. Most of the options for future UK‐EU relationships currently under discussion imply increased trade barriers, which will reduce trade and also have effects on output and prices. In this paper, we use a multi‐market partial equilibrium model to analyse the vulnerability of 122 manufacturing industries to Brexit. In all five Brexit scenarios we model, there is an overall reduction in UK manufacturing output. Output grows in some industries but at the expense of higher consumer and intermediate goods prices. High tech and medium–high tech sectors are more at risk of a decline in domestic production than lower tech sectors. In most areas of the country, demand for high‐skilled workers falls more than for medium and low‐skilled workers.     

Brexit and its economic consequences

As the formal process of Brexit has already started, there is much uncertainty about Brexit's impacts on Britain's social, political and economic future. This paper examines the economic impact. After briefly discussing some significant EU treaties that serve as the background materials, it presents the key arguments advocated by the leave and remain camps. The economic impact depends critically on the negotiation outcomes. Aside from the debate on the divorce costs, there are numerous issues that must be negotiated, such as immigration, trade in goods, services, agriculture, fisheries and financial regulations. We discuss various scenarios of possible new trade regimes, resulting in different impacts on the UK economy. With each side having its bargaining chips to play, the trade‐offs between “give and take” in the negotiation game are analysed. Considering various strategic options, this paper urges rationality and cooperation, especially weighing both sides’ entwined economic interests, in addition to their mutual security, defence, environmental and world concerns. The potential gains and losses in the event where the UK contemplates new trade arrangements with the non‐EU countries are analysed in the Appendix .     

EU trade policy in the age of bilateralism

Together with a strong emphasis on deep integration, the main thrust of the EU’s new trade strategy as announced in October 2006 is competitive regionalism, i.e. the competition between different jurisdictions which seek strategic advantages for themselves through the conclusion of bilateral agreements with priority trading partners. This article outlines the new trade strategy in the light of the changes caused by the Lisbon Treaty. It then presents a detailed positioning of the EU in the geography of international trade policy.     

欧盟、北美优惠性原产地规则对我国的借鉴

经济全球化的加剧使得中间品贸易越来越频繁,最终产品的国籍变得越来越模糊。在我国参与组建更多区域性优惠贸易协定时,优惠性原产地规则显然成为一项重要的贸易政策工具。欧盟与北美两大地区的原产地规则已在世界范围内造成广泛影响,为我国原产地规则的制定提供了有益的参考。在简单介绍原产地规则后着重研究了欧盟与北美的优惠性原产地规则。在分析我国原产地规则的基础上,从欧美的实践总结出几点启示,即我国应逐步完善制度性管理规则,逐渐协调和统一原产地规则并结合自身目标综合使用标准。