The impact of advertising regulation on industry: the cigarette advertising ban of 1971

This article studies the impact of the 1971 TV/radio advertising ban on the cigarette industry. Data indicate that industry advertising spending decreased sharply immediately following the ban but recovered and actually exceeded the preban level within five years. A dynamic oligopoly model of advertising is developed to incorporate two potential explanations. The estimated model fully accounts for the puzzling trend, with 74% of the postban advertising spending increase explained by industry dynamics, and 26% explained by learning. Furthermore, this article uses the new concept of nonstationary oblivious equilibrium to handle intractable state space and accelerate equilibrium computation.     

Knowing me, knowing you: : Trader anonymity and informed trading in parallel markets

In this paper we empirically analyze whether the degree of trader anonymity is related to the probability of information-based trading. We use data from the German stock market where non-anonymous traditional floor based exchanges co-exist with an anonymous computerized trading system. We use an extended version of the Easley et al. (J. Finance 51 (1996) 1405) model that allows for simultaneous estimation for two parallel markets. We find that the probability of informed trading is significantly lower in the floor based trading system. We further document that the size of the spread and the adverse selection component are positively related to the estimated probabilities of information-based trading.     

Intra‐industry bankruptcy contagion: Evidence from the pricing of industry recovery rates

How does bankruptcy contagion propagate among industry peers? We study the debt recovery channel of industry contagion by examining whether the cost of a company's debt is affected by the observed recovery rates of its bankrupt industry peers. Our results show that lower industry recovery rates are associated with higher loan spreads, but only when the contracts were originated during industry bankruptcy waves. Consistent with the debt recovery channel of industry contagion, we find that the negative effects of industry recovery rates are significantly stronger under situations where the effect is expected to be more salient.     

Cross‐selling in the US home video industry

We identify significant cross‐selling effects in the home video industry: a 10% increase in the demand for a studio's old titles leads to a 4.7% increase in new title sales. We argue this is due to supply‐side effects: studios with strong titles are better able to “push” other titles through retailers; and the latter “push” these additional supplies to consumers by means of lower prices and/or heavier advertising. Our strategy for identifying causality is based on “star power” effects: increases in old movie demand caused by recent success of movies with a similar cast and/or director.     

In‐house asset management in the Australian superannuation industry

We examine how executives from the Australian superannuation industry perceive and approach the choice between managing assets in‐house, versus outsourcing to external investment managers. We find that decision frameworks, as well as the perceived benefits and challenges of in‐house management, can be described in terms of four elements: costs, capabilities, alignment and governance. Industry participants address these four elements in diverse ways. This is reflected in a variety of decision approaches, aspects that are considered and emphasised in decision‐making, and implementation structures.     

Understanding in‐house transactions in the real estate brokerage industry

About 20% of residential real estate transactions in North America are in‐house transactions, for which buyers and sellers are represented by the same brokerage. We examine to what extent in‐house transactions are explained by agents' strategic incentives as opposed to matching efficiency. Using home transaction data, we find that agents are more likely to promote internal listings when they are financially rewarded and such effect becomes weaker when consumers are more aware of agents' incentives. We further develop a structural model and find that about one third of in‐house transactions are explained by agents' strategic promotion, causing significant utility loss for home buyers.     

Pass‐through in a concentrated industry: empirical evidence and regulatory implications

We estimate pass‐through with 30 years of data from the portland cement industry. Robust econometric evidence supports that fuel cost changes are more than fully transmitted downstream in the form of price changes. This validates an implicit pass‐through assumption made in recent academic research and regulatory analyses. We combine the econometric results with estimates of competitive conduct obtained from the literature to evaluate the incidence of market‐based CO₂ regulation. Producers bear roughly 11% of the regulatory burden and could be compensated with 16% of the revenues obtained.     

What's good for you is good for me: The effect of CEO inside debt on the cost of equity

We find an overall negative relation between CEO inside debt holdings and the cost of equity capital. Such a negative relation holds in an instrumental-variable analysis, a test using changes in variables due to CEO turnover events, a test using seasoned equity offering (SEO) underpricing as an alternate cost of equity measure, and a difference-in-differences test based on the implementation of Internal Revenue Code Section 409A Final Regulations. Additionally, the negative relation between inside debt and the cost of equity capital is nonlinear, suggesting the existence of optimal inside debt compensation that can minimize cost of capital. The negative relation is less pronounced in firms with pre-funded executive pension plans and in firms that provide executives with the pension lump-sum option. We also provide evidence that inside debt lowers the cost of equity more for excessively levered firms. Collectively, these findings suggest that shareholders value the beneficial role of CEO debt-like compensation in constraining excessive managerial risk taking.     

Constructing a knowledge‐based system to aid scenario‐based strategic planning: an application to the European airline industry

This paper explores the use of scenario planning and the design of a knowledge‐based system in strategic decision making, in the context of the European airline industry. Several innovative strategies were derived, as well as other key recommendations based on sound strategic reasoning, and participants testified to the effectiveness of the approach in stretching their thinking. The requirement to draft strategies as expert system rules, with reasons, was useful in clarifying thinking and achieving group consensus. This methodology, therefore, aids effectiveness of the scenario planning process itself, while providing a dynamic, accessible means of storing the resulting strategic thinking. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

As you like it: Explaining the popularity of life‐cycle funds with multi cumulative prospect theory

Life‐cycle (or target‐date) funds are funds, which typically decrease their risk exposure over time. They have been very successful in many countries, particularly in the segment of old age provision. However, Expected Utility Theory (EUT) cannot explain their popularity. Moreover, recent results of Graf (2016), imply that not only EUT but also its behavioral counterpart Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is often not able to explain the popularity of these products, since for each life‐cycle fund a corresponding balanced fund can be constructed, which is preferable from the investor's perspective in most circumstances. In a recent paper, Ruß and Schelling (2018), have argued that potential future changes in an investment's value already impact the decision of long‐term investors at outset. Based on this, they have introduced Multi Cumulative Prospect Theory (MCPT), which is based on CPT and considers the subjective utility generated by annual value changes. This paper shows that for MCPT‐investors, life‐cycle funds are typically more attractive than their corresponding balanced funds since they reduce the potential losses toward the end of the investment horizon. Hence, our findings provide an explanation for inferior decisions in old age provision. This can serve as a basis to improve such decisions.     

The price effects of cross‐market mergers: theory and evidence from the hospital industry

We consider the effect of mergers between firms whose products are not viewed as direct substitutes for the same good or service, but are bundled by a common intermediary. Focusing on hospital mergers across distinct geographic markets, we show that such combinations can reduce competition among merging hospitals for inclusion in insurers' networks, leading to higher prices (or lower‐quality care). Using data on hospital mergers from 1996–2012, we find support that this mechanism operates within state boundaries: cross‐market, within‐state hospital mergers yield price increases of 7%–9 % for acquiring hospitals, whereas out‐of‐state acquisitions do not yield significant increases.     

Benjamin Greygoose & Sons: survival in the death industry

This case study concerns a company, operating within a highly sensitive industry, which needs to adopt new planning and control procedures along with performance measures in order to ensure its long term survival. The case explores the characteristics of the UK funeral industry, and the impact of the incursion of large overseas companies on the operation of small family businesses. Porter's (1980) Competitive Strategy framework provides a vehicle for the analysis of generic strategies to secure competitive advantage when cost leadership is not a practical possibility. Product diversification and niche marketing are explored in a Teaching Note to a rewarding case, but one which may raise the emotional sensitivity of subjects.     

Do investors forecast fat firms? Evidence from the gold‐mining industry

Conventional economic theory assumes that firms minimize costs given output, but news articles and managers indicate that firms cut costs when they are in economic distress and grow fat when they are relatively wealthy. Under conventional theory, firm value is convex in the price of a competitively supplied input or output, but we find that the stock values of many gold‐mining companies are concave in the price of gold. We show that this is consistent with fat accumulation when a firm grows wealthy. We then address alternative explanations and discuss where fat in these companies might reside.     

Patent pools and innovation in substitute technologies—evidence from the 19th‐century sewing machine industry

Patent pools, which combine complementary patents of competing firms, are expected to increase overall welfare but potentially discourage innovation in substitutes for the pool technology. This article exploits a new historical data set on changes in patenting and firm entry for a clearly defined pool technology and substitutes in the 19th‐century sewing machine industry. This analysis reveals a substantial increase in innovation for an—albeit technologically inferior—substitute technology. Historical evidence suggests that the creation of a pool‐diverted innovation toward an inferior substitute technology by creating differential license fees and litigation risks.     

International equity valuation: the relative importance of country and industry factors versus company‐specific financial reporting information

The relative importance of country‐ and industry‐specified factors vis‐à‐vis company‐specific financial statement–based information in explaining equity valuation multiples in an international setting is examined. Both country‐specific effects via previously identified variables and an indicator variable approach are analysed. While company‐specific factors are predominant in explaining cross‐sectional differences in valuation, country and industry factors have sizable incremental explanatory power over them; the latter are not independent, so their relative importance is influenced by how we adjust for this commonality. Using country indicators provides larger incremental explanatory power than using country‐specific factors, suggesting that previously identified factors may be measured with sizeable error or omitted factors are important.     

Suboptimal segmentation: Assessing the use of demographics in financial services advertising

Marketers routinely make use of demographic-based segmentation as a means of targeting customers of financial services. This article builds on growing evidence that a demographic-based approach is ill-founded. Using a large sample we investigate whether demographic information is of use in segmenting customers and find little support for existing practice. Implications for researchers and managers are discussed.     

Suboptimal segmentation: Assessing the use of demographics in financial services advertising

Marketers routinely make use of demographic-based segmentation as a means of targeting customers of financial services. This article builds on growing evidence that a demographic-based approach is ill-founded. Using a large sample we investigate whether demographic information is of use in segmenting customers and find little support for existing practice. Implications for researchers and managers are discussed.     

Price discrimination in political advertising: Evidence from the 2012 presidential election

In 2010, the US Supreme Court loosened contribution limits to Political Action Committees (PACs), sparking fears that big donors could exert outsize influence on elections by funding PAC advertising. However, PACs are potentially handicapped when buying advertising time; data from 2012 reveal that PACs pay 32% above regulated campaign rates. I estimate a model of demand for advertising by PACs, exploiting the misalignment of state and media market borders to address price endogeneity. I find that prices reflect willingness-to-pay for viewer demographics rather than media bias. The estimates further suggest that network-owned stations discriminate more successfully than do local affiliates.     

Non‐Monotonicity of the Tversky‐Kahneman Probability‐Weighting Function: A Cautionary Note

Cumulative Prospect Theory has gained a great deal of support as an alternative to Expected Utility Theory as it accounts for a number of anomalies in the observed behavior of economic agents. Expected Utility Theory uses a utility function and subjective or objective probabilities to compare risky prospects. Cumulative Prospect Theory alters both of these aspects. The concave utility function is replaced by a loss‐averse utility function and probabilities are replaced by decision weights. The latter are determined with a weighting function applied to the cumulative probability of the outcomes. Several different probability weighting functions have been suggested. The two most popular are the original proposal of Tversky and Kahneman and the compound‐invariant form proposed by Prelec. This note shows that the Tversky‐Kahneman probability weighting function is not increasing for all parameter values and therefore can assign negative decision weights to some outcomes. This in turn implies that Cumulative Prospect Theory could make choices not consistent with first‐order stochastic dominance.