资本市场中信息披露均衡问题研究

本文通过对资本市场中信息供给与需求现状及其均衡关系的分析，揭示出信息供给方与需求方由于站在不同利益主体的角度而存在着必然矛盾，以及由此引发的资本市场信息有失公允等一系列问题，并提出了几点建议。     

政治关联、终极控制人性质与权益资本成本

先前政治关联影响效应的研究往往关注公司本身,忽视了从投资者的角度探讨政治关联对权益资本成本的影响。本文以在沪深交易所上市的公司为样本,编撰了一个刻画政治关联相对客观的数据库,考察上市公司政治关联和终极控制人性质对公司价值构成因素——权益资本成本的影响。研究发现,政治关联与权益资本成本显著负相关,并且这种效应在政治关联强的公司中更加明显。此外,政治关联与权益资本成本的关系受终极控制人性质的影响,私有企业、地方国有企业和中央国有企业有差异。总之,本文从权益资本成本的角度证实了政治关联的价值,投资者对政治关联企业要求更低的权益资本成本。     

Earnings,Book Values,and Dividends in Equity Valuation: An Empirical Perspective*

This paper revisits Ohlson 1995 to make a number of points not generally appreciated in the literature. First, the residual income valuation (RIV) model does not serve as a crucial centerpiece in the analysis. Instead, RIV plays the role of condensing and streamlining the analysis, but without any effect on the substantive empirical conclusions. Second, the concept of “other information” in the model can be given concrete empirical content if one presumes that next‐period expected earnings are observable.     

Earnings Announcements and Information Asymmetry: An Intra‐Day Analysis*

This paper examines the effect of earnings announcements on information asymmetry as perceived by specialists. We use changes in quoted bid‐ask spreads and depths (relative to the average value in the non‐announcement period) as proxies for changes in information asymmetry in the market. To our knowledge, we are the first to employ a model that captures the simultaneous nature of the specialists' choice of spreads and depths in reaction to earnings news. We provide evidence that spreads are wider and depths are smaller before the release of earnings announcements. We also find that changes to depths are greater for announcements of quarterly earnings than for announcements of annual earnings and changes to spreads persist longer into the post‐announcement period when announcements are made outside trading hours. These changes to spreads and depths persist when earnings announcements are made after trading hours.     

股权资本成本与高管薪酬激励--一个高管薪酬改革思路的理论性阐释

以会计绩效为基准的高管薪酬制度是当今的主流,广泛应用于国际企业界。然而越来越多的研究证据表明,高管薪酬与会计业绩之间的关系不足以成为建立高管薪酬制度的理论基础。唯有遵循股东至上原则的高管薪酬方案才能既满足管理层对于薪酬的预期,又有助于在可持续发展的前提下,实现股东财富最大化目标。股权资本成本是这种高管薪酬制度设计的基本因素与核心参数。     

Accruals Quality,Stock Return Seasonality,and the Cost of Equity Capital: International Evidence

Mashruwala and Mashruwala (2011) argue that inconsistent earlier findings regarding whether accruals quality (AQ) is priced in equity markets (Core, Guay, and Verdi 2008; Kim and Qi 2010) may be explained by seasonality in returns deriving from tax‐loss selling. Finding no evidence of annual AQ premia for U.S. firms, Mashruwala and Mashruwala report that significant monthly premia concentrate in January, with the remainder of the year demonstrating negative or insignificant returns to AQ and attribute this strong seasonality to tax‐loss selling by investors, rather than information risk. However, the end of the tax year for U.S. investors coincides with the calendar year and the financial year for the majority of firms, which may suggest alternative explanations for seasonal variation in returns. We extend Mashruwala and Mashruwala's study, using an international sample including countries where incentives for tax‐loss selling exist, but in which the standard tax and financial years differ (Japan and the United Kingdom), and where the tax and financial years conclude in a month other than December (Australia), as well as employing a longer U.S. sample. We find some evidence of an AQ premium in the United States, which although dominated by January returns, remains significant annually. However, these findings are sensitive to the inclusion of low price stocks and the choice of asset pricing test. In Japan, the United Kingdom, and Australia we document consistent evidence that an AQ premium exists on average throughout the year, and in samples excluding the first month of the tax year. The sensitivity of our U.S. results to the January period may reflect the conflation of numerous seasonal influences on returns, not all of which necessarily reflect mispricing.     

Private Information Production,Public Disclosure,and the Cost of Capital: Theory and Implications*

Both private information production by market traders and public disclosure by firms contribute to dissemination of financial information in the capital market. However, the motives and economic consequences of the two are quite different. In general, private information production is intended by investors to increase their trading profit, which has the effect of widening the information gap between informed and uninformed investors and increasing the firm's cost of capital. On the other hand, public disclosure can be used to narrow this information gap and to lower the cost of capital. This paper provides a theoretical model to examine the economic incentives behind these two forms of information dissemination and their consequences on the cost of capital. By simultaneously considering the firm's and the information traders' decisions, the paper derives an equilibrium in which the amount of private information production, the level of public disclosure, and the cost of capital are all linked to specific characteristics of the firm, of information traders, and of the market. In contrast to conventional beliefs, the paper predicts that, across firms, the cost of capital can be either positively or negatively related to the firm's disclosure level, depending on the specific factors that cause the variation within a particular sample. Similarly, the extent to which investors follow a firm and the firm's disclosure level can be either positively or negatively related to each other. Implications for empirical research are discussed.     

Combining Earnings and Book Value in Equity Valuation*

It is common to apply multipliers to both earnings and book value to calculate approximate equity values. However, applying a price-earnings multiplier or a price-to-book multiplier typically produces two valuations and the analyst is left with the question of how to combine them into one valuation. This paper calculates weights that combine the valuations and shows that these weights vary over the difference between earnings and book value, doing so systematically over time. When earnings are small compared to book value, the weights are different from when earnings are large relative to book value, and they vary in a nonlinear way over the difference between the two. The weights also combine forecasts of future earnings, based on earnings and book value separately, into one composite forecast. The paper calculates a second set of weights to ascertain how the two numbers are combined to forecast one-year-ahead earnings and three-years-ahead earnings. The calculated weights are applied out of sample to ascertain their predictive ability against other benchmarks.     

How Are Earnings Managed? An Examination of Specific Accruals*

There is relatively little evidence on the specific accruals used to manage earnings. This paper examines this issue by considering the use of specific accruals in three earnings‐management contexts: equity offerings, management buyouts, and firms avoiding earnings decreases. We argue that the costs of managing earnings through different income statement items vary and that the benefits of earnings management through each of these items depend on the context. We thus make differential predictions regarding which specific accrual will be used to manage earnings in each of the three contexts we consider. To measure earnings management for specific accruals, we develop performance‐matched measures to capture the unexpected component of accounts receivable, inventory, accounts payable, accrued liabilities, depreciation expense, and special items. Consistent with our predictions, we find that firms issuing equity appear to prefer managing earnings upward by accelerating revenue recognition. Specifically, we find that accounts receivable for these firms are unexpectedly high. Conversely, for the management buyout context, we predict and find unexpected accounts receivable to be negative. For firms trying to avoid reporting an earnings decrease, we expect firms to be less concerned with earnings persistence and therefore more likely to use more transitory, and less costly, items to achieve their goal. We find that special items are significantly more positive for this group. This paper provides a further step toward understanding how the incentives behind earnings management affect the method used to achieve earnings goals, and it illustrates the usefulness of examining individual accruals in specific contexts.     

转型期中国表外资本流动实证研究

表外资本流动通过非正常渠道发生,而没有在国际收支平衡表中正式记录。本文使用三种方法测算了中国1982-2003年间的表外资本流动规模。实证分析表明,显著影响中国表外资本流动的经济因素包括外国投资规模、经济增长率、外汇储备与外债余额,以及财政收入等;而税收制度改革、重大金融政治冲击等非经济因素也对中国表外资本流动产生一定影响。     

治理环境、终极控制人两权分离与股权融资成本

本文以2004—2006年非金融行业上市公司为样本,检验终极控制人现金流权、两权分离、治理环境和终极人性质对股权融资成本的影响,终极控制人的两权分离程度与股权融资成本之间的关系是否受治理环境的影响,以及上述治理环境与股权融资成本的直接和间接关系是否与终极控制人性质有关。研究发现,（1）两权分离与股权融资成本显著正相关,而现金流权与股权融资成本显著负相关。（2）治理环境本身与股权融资成本负相关,且治理环境的显著改善能弱化两权分离对股权融资成本的负面影响。（3）相对于非国有上市公司,国有公司的股权融资成本较低,且上市公司的国有性质在一定程度上能强化治理环境对股权融资成本的正面作用。     

Determinants of Managerial Earnings Guidance Prior to Regulation Fair Disclosure and Bias in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts*

Prior to Regulation Fair Disclosure (“Reg FD”), some management privately guided analyst earnings estimates, often through detailed reviews of analysts' earnings models. In this paper I use proprietary survey data from the National Investor Relations Institute to identify firms that reviewed analysts' earnings models prior to Reg FD and those that did not. Under the maintained assumption that firms conducting reviews guided analysts' earnings forecasts, I document firm characteristics associated with the decision to provide private earnings guidance. Then I document the characteristics of “guided” versus “unguided” analyst earnings forecasts. Findings demonstrate an association between several firm characteristics and guidance practices: managers are more likely to review analyst earnings models when the firm's stock is highly followed by analysts and largely held by institutions, when the firm's market‐to‐book ratio is high, and its earnings are important to valuation but hard to predict because its business is complex. A comparison of guided and unguided quarterly forecasts indicates that guided analyst estimates are more accurate, but also more frequently pessimistic. An examination of analysts' annual earnings forecasts over the fiscal year does not distinguish between guidance and no‐guidance firms; both experience a “walk‐down” in annual estimates. To distinguish between guidance and no‐guidance firms, one must examine quarterly earnings news: unguided analysts walk down their annual estimates when the majority of the quarterly earnings news is negative; guided analysts walk down their annual estimates even though the majority of the quarterly earnings news is positive.     

Earnings Quality and the Equity Risk Premium: A Benchmark Model*

This paper solves a model that links earnings quality to the equity risk premium in an infinite‐horizon consumption capital asset pricing model (CAPM) economy. In the model, risk‐averse traders hold diversified portfolios consisting of risk‐free bonds and shares of many risky firms. When constructing their portfolios, traders rely on noisy reported earnings and dividend payments for information about the risky firms. The main new element of the model is an explicit representation of earnings quality that includes hidden accrual errors that reverse in subsequent periods. The model demonstrates that earnings quality magnifies fundamental risk. Absent fundamental risk, poor earnings quality cannot affect the equity risk premium. Moreover, only the systematic (undiversified) component of earnings‐quality risk contributes to the equity risk premium. In contrast, all components of earnings‐quality risk affect earnings capitalization factors. The model ties together consumption CAPM and accounting‐based valuation research into one price formula linking earnings quality to the equity risk premium and earnings capitalization factors.     

Earnings,Book Values,and Dividends in Equity Valuation*

Abstract. The paper develops and analyzes a model of a firm's market value as it relates to contemporaneous and future earnings, book values, and dividends. Two owners' equity accounting constructs provide the underpinnings of the model: the clean surplus relation applies, and dividends reduce current book value but do not affect current earnings. The model satisfies many appealing properties, and it provides a useful benchmark when one conceptualizes how market value relates to accounting data and other information. Résumé. L'auteur élabore et analyse un modèle dans lequel il conceptualise la relation entre la valeur marchande d'une entreprise et ses bénéfices, ses valeurs comptables et ses dividendes actuels et futurs. Deux postulats de la comptabilisation des capitaux propres servent de charpente au modèle: a) la relation du résultat global s'applique et b) les dividendes réduisent la valeur comptable actuelle sans influer, cependant, sur les bénéfices actuels. Le modèle présente de nombreuses propriétés intéressantes et il peut, fort utilement, servir de repère dans la conceptualisation de la relation entre la valeur marchande et les données comptables et autres renseignements.     

我国股票首次公开发行时盈余管理与上市后市场表现的实证研究

本文借鉴西方关于股票上市后市场表现的研究成果,结合我国股市的实际,选取沪市101只股票作为样本,计算上市公司上市后的超常回报率并依据它分组,运用统计方法分析发现,①首次公开发行股票的公司在发行当年进行的盈余管理程度与其股票上市后的短期市场表现显著相关;②首次公开发行的公司在发行当年进行的盈余管理程度与其股票上市后中、长期市场表现无显著关系。     

The Balance Sheet and the Future of Fed Policy

The size of the Fed’s balance sheet has almost quadrupled since 2007, and the composition of the balance sheet has changed in important ways, with regard to both assets and liabilities. This short paper asseses the implications for how monetary policy works, and the entailed risks. The size of the balance sheet and its composition may not matter economically, but there are significant political risks. The political risk-taking may make monetary policy choices more difficult than they would otherwise be.