日美贸易摩擦:由宏观经济摩擦转向制度摩擦

战后日美贸易摩擦是在经济全球化的背景下和产业结构的转换中产生和发展的.日美贸易摩擦的发展不仅与日本产业结构的变化同步,而且与全球化的进展同步.60年代,产业结构由轻工业转向重化工业化,贸易摩擦也由纺织品转向钢铁、彩电;70-80年代,产业结构由重化工业化转向技术集约化,日美贸易摩擦开始转向汽车、半导体;90年代,日本产业结构由技术集约化开始转向信息化,日美贸易摩擦开始转向金融、通信、流通等领域.     

Expense Preference Behavior and Contract-Management: Evidence from U.S. Hospitals

This paper reports on a study of expense preference behavior in a conditional sample of hospitals (before and after adoption of contract-management arrangements) using an extension of Mester's (1989) test. To identify expense preference parameters, input demand equations are considered in addition to the cost function and are estimated jointly with the cost function as a system of nonlinear equations. Based on this test, contract managers do not appear to be cost minimizers, although they tend to exhibit lower expense preference behavior than salaried managers. The importance of our results, however, goes beyond a single industry because we have shown that estimates of expense preference depend critically upon the particular input demand being studied. Studies that hitherto have relied on single input demand equations or on the cost function alone may have to be reinterpreted in this light.     

How Sensitive is U.S.-Canadian Trade to the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Industry Data

Previous research has followed four distinct paths to investigate the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance of a country, using mostly aggregate trade data. In this paper we choose one of those paths and consider the trade between the U.S. and Canada. However, unlike previous research we disaggregate the trade data between the two countries by commodity and consider 152 industries that trade. After estimating inpayment and outpayment schedules for all 152 industries, we find that real depreciation has short-run effects on inpayments of 72 and outpayments of 53 industries. However, the short-run effects translate into the long-run effects only in 43 of inpayment models and 36 of outpayment models. Further analysis reveals that 1% real depreciation of the U.S. dollar has 1.29% positive effects on the U.S. net export earnings.     

Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data

Previous research that investigated the relation between U.S. trade flows and the value of the dollar either employed trade data between the United States and the rest of the world or between the United States and her major trading partners. In this paper we use monthly import and export data from 66 industries in the United States SITC Commodity Groupings over the January 1991-August 2002 period as well as cointegration analysis and show that in the long run real depreciation of the dollar stimulates export earnings of many U.S. industries, whereas it has no significant impact on most importing industries.     

Incumbent Response to Entry by Low‐Cost Carriers in the U.S. Airline Industry

This article studies incumbent price response to entry by low‐cost carriers in the U.S. airline industry. I find that legacy carrier incumbents decrease their mean airfare, 10th percentile airfare, and 90th percentile airfare following entry by a low‐cost carrier. Airfares decrease by a larger percentage at the right tail of the incumbents’ price distribution than at the left tail, suggesting that increased competition from low‐cost carrier entrants leads to lower price dispersion.     

A Study of Major Impact: Assortative Mating and Earnings Inequality Among U.S. College Graduates

This research has two goals: to measure the extent of assortative (non-random) mating by college major in the United States, and to assess the extent to which assortative mating by college major increases earnings inequality among college-educated couples. Assortative mating of college graduates with other college graduates has been extensively studied, but research on assortative mating by field of study is rare. The analysis uses a large sample (659,732 couples) from five years of the American Community Survey public use files to group college degrees into nine categories, compute the frequency of all marital pairings, and compare these frequencies to a random assignment of pairings. The results show that assortative mating by college major is common for all majors and both genders, and that these results are robust to division of the sample by age group. Because high-earning majors tend to be married to spouses from the same high-earning major group, and likewise for low-earning majors, assortative mating increases earnings inequality among two-earner college-educated couples. The extent of this increased earnings inequality is calculated with both dollar measures and standard aggregate measures of inequality. Thus college-educated Americans tend to marry persons with similar college majors and this tendency measurably increases earnings inequality among college-educated couples.

     

The Life Cycle of the U.S. Tire Industry

We introduce a new theory of industry evolution. According to our model, the nonmonotonicity in firm numbers found in many young industries is a consequence of the gradual decline in unit costs. Early stages of the industry life cycle, when unit costs and profit margins are high, display positive net entry rates. In later stages, declining unit costs and increasing competition limit the market room for (fringe) firms accumulating in a shakeout. The model explains paths of output, price level, and firm numbers using a recursive system of equations. We apply the model to the U.S. tire industry.     

Exploring Value‐Based Management Sophistication: The Role of Potential Economic Benefits and Institutional Influence

The complexity of value‐based management (VBM) is often not captured in empirical research. In particular, potential differences in the extent of VBM implementation are not considered. Firms are predominantly classified dichotomously into either VBM “adopters” or “non‐adopters.” In this study, we aim to fill this gap by introducing a framework to assess differences in the extent of VBM implementation (VBM‐sophistication) based on publicly available data. This approach enables us to study determinants of VBM‐sophistication based on a hand‐collected data set comprising 2,683 firm‐year observations from 16 European countries between 2005 and 2014. Specifically, we investigate (i) whether potential economic benefits associated with VBM implementation lead to a higher level of VBM‐sophistication, and (ii) if this relation is influenced by extra‐organizational institutions (e.g., industry norms). Our results indicate that companies exhibit higher VBM‐sophistication if certain firm characteristics that increase the potential economic benefits of VBM are present. Moreover, our study provides evidence that this effect is enhanced by extra‐organizational institutions that pressure and support firms in realizing the potential benefits of higher VBM‐sophistication.     

美国金融危机与中国制造业的转型

文章研究了中国制造业的结构与现状,分析了美国金融危机对中国制造业的影响,指出了中国制造业目前面对的环境问题和经济结构问题,特别是研发问题、市场功能问题和产业结构问题,提出了中国制造业转型的三个方向：一是注重研发,二是市场转型,三是产业升级。     

人力资本先行追赶与制度创新--德国和美国的经验及对我国的启示

成功的经济追赶都是以人力资本的先行追赶为先导的，而人力资本的先行追赶则又是以比教育创新更广泛的制度创新为先决条件的。19世纪末德国和美国的历史经验为这种理论提供了证明。公共知识基础设施的制度创新是19世纪末德国和美国跨越式发展得以成功的主要原因，而在知识经济和信息革命的时代，人力资本的先行追赶还需要大力发展知识密集的服务业和创新网络，它与公共知识基础设施的创造性发展一起构成了21世纪人力资本先行追赶的双引擎。     

Auditor Sensitivity to Real Earnings Management: The Importance of Ambiguity and Earnings Context

Differentiating real earnings management (REM) from normal business decisions poses a unique challenge for auditors, researchers, and investors. The ambiguity associated with REM, and the fact that REM does not violate GAAP, may explain why its use is on the rise. While some assert that auditors are not, and should not be, concerned with REM, recent research suggests that REM may influence some auditor judgments. Using Correspondent Inference Theory (CIT) as our theoretical framework, we extend REM research by investigating the ways in which auditors respond to REM and how auditors deal with the intrinsic ambiguity associated with REM. We administer a 3×2 between‐subjects experiment to 113 highly‐experienced auditors, manipulating the level of ambiguity surrounding the observed REM (Explicit REM, Potential REM, or No REM) and the earnings context in which the client engages in REM (the client beat or missed the consensus earnings forecast). We find that auditors respond to REM by lowering assessments of management tone (i.e., management's commitment to a culture of high ethical standards), being more likely to discuss the issue with the audit committee, and being less likely to retain the client. Auditors respond to Explicit REM regardless of the earnings context, but respond to Potential (i.e., ambiguous) REM only when the client beats the forecast. Finally, we find that management tone mediates the relation between REM and auditor responses, even after controlling for various audit‐related risks. Thus, for auditors, REM appears to be primarily a “people” issue, as REM provides a negative signal about management.     

趋同还是趋异:执政党派别与美国社会经济形势

本文通过考察执政党派别对美国社会经济形势是否产生显著的影响,来检验美国两大政党的政策取向及其实施效果究竟是"趋同"还是"趋异".我们选取了反映美国社会经济形势的六组指标作为被解释变量,在控制了执政党在选举中获胜优势的基础上,检验代表执政党派别的虚拟变量是否具有统计显著性.经验检验结果表明,从20世纪60年代至今,美国的执政党派别在国家生活中并未产生显著影响,两党的政策取向及其实施效果呈现出趋同的态势:在不同政党执政时期,只有名义利率和公司税水平存在显著差异,而其他所有社会经济指标均未呈现出显著差别.     

金融服务与经济增长:美国的经验及启示

长期以来,金融发展与经济增长的关系一直是经济学家关注的热点话题之一。随着金融的日益发展,与此相关的理论研究和经验检验也在不断深化。Schumpeter(1912)早就提出较发达的金融体系有利于降低交易成本和信息成本,因此影响投资决策、储蓄水平和技术创新,进而促进经济增长。约翰·格力和爱得华·肖在20世纪60年代提出了金融能够将储蓄转化为投资而提高社会生产性投资水平的观点。随后,休·帕特里克(HughT.Patrick)从“需求追随”和“供给领先”两方面论证了金融体系在提高存量资本和新增资本配置效率、加速资本积累中的作用。麦金农和肖则…     

Discontinuities and Earnings Management: Evidence from Restatements Related to Securities Litigation*

A heated debate exists as to whether discontinuities in earnings distributions are indicative of earnings management. While many studies attribute discontinuities in earnings distributions to earnings management, other studies argue that earnings discontinuities are artifacts of sample selection and research design. Overall, there is limited direct evidence of a connection between earnings discontinuities and earnings management. In this study, we provide direct evidence linking earnings management to earnings discontinuities for a sample of firms that settle securities class action lawsuits and restate earnings from the alleged GAAP violation period. We compare the distribution of restated (“unmanaged”) earnings to originally reported (“managed”) earnings. We find that discontinuities are not present in the distribution of analyst forecast errors and earnings changes using unmanaged earnings but are present using managed earnings. The discontinuity in the earnings level distribution is attenuated, but not eliminated, on an unmanaged basis. These shifts among our sample of firms are caused by earnings management and cannot be explained by sample selection or research design issues. Our findings are important because many studies use earnings discontinuities as a proxy for intentional earnings manipulations and we provide the first direct evidence of a link between these two phenomena.     

美国产业结构变动与服务业的发展

20世纪80年代以来,美国积极调整发展战略,国民经济取得了长足发展。本文在介绍美国产业结构变化的基础上,对美国服务业的发展以及美国与服务业和服务贸易相关的政策措施进行探讨。由于我国目前正处于产业结构调整的关键时期,因此学习美国的经验对我国产业结构调整和产业政策制订具有一定的理论和现实的借鉴意义。     

The Contribution of Associate's Degree Holders to U.S. Earnings,Labor Quality,Productivity, and Overall Economic Growth

There is substantial evidence on the importance of education as a driver of earnings, productivity, and economic growth. However, knowledge of the specific role of associate's degrees in U.S. economic growth is limited. We analyze the sources of U.S. economic growth and identify the contribution of associate's degree holders to improvements in earnings, labor quality, productivity, and overall economic growth. We find evidence that substitution toward workers with associate's degrees has increased U.S. earnings, aggregate labor quality, and productivity, and that these effects are concentrated in the health care, trade, and government sectors. While the average educational attainment of people entering the labor force has plateaued, our results suggest that shifting workers from some college to associate degrees could improve earnings, the quality of the workforce, productivity, and growth, potentially without more time spent in school.