The integration of microcomputers in marketing research and decision making

This paper focuses on the integrative and pervasive use of microcomputers in marketing research and managerial decision making. The marketing research process is conceptualized as consisting of six phases. At each phase, microcomputer applications and illustrative software are identified as implications for the practice of marketing research discussed. Next the paper illustrates the use of microcomputers in selected application areas such as market segmentation, sales forecasting, new product development, pricing and decision support and expert systems. Guidelines for the selection of microcomputer software in specific situations are provided. The paper concludes with some observations on the future applications of microcomputers in marketing research and decision making.     

Decision support oriented sales forecasting methods

Forecast accuracy is not always a good criterion by which to evaluate alternative sales forecasting methods. Accurate forecasts do not always lead to desirable management policies. The paper gives two examples of this in practice, one in which short term sales forecasts are used for operational planning purposes, and the other in which long term sales forecasts are used for strategic company planning. In each case the most accurate forecasts do not give the best plans and alternative criteria to accuracy are proposed and shown to perform better. Conclusions are drawn regarding evaluation criteria for alternative sales forecasting methods within a planning context and also regarding the position of the forecasting function within an organisation.     

The life cycle concept as a long term forecasting model

This paper presents a model for long term sales forecasting based upon the product life cycle concept. The life cycle concept is first reviewed with an emphasis on sales behavior in each of the life cycle stages. A simple model consistent with the life cycle concept is then presented. Based upon this model a sales forecasting methodology is developed and tested. The results are generally promising particularly considering the nature of the test data. The article concludes by suggesting future applications of the product life cycle concept. Ralston Purina Company     

The impact of misrepresentative data patterns on sales forecasting accuracy

The development of a sales forecasting system involves three major steps. The first step is to obtain prior sales data and to identify the model that will best forecast the patterns that exist in the data. The second step is to estimate parameter values for the selected model by analyzing the prior sales data. The third step is to test the accuracy of the model by use of the prior sales data. Each of the steps requires use of prior data. In all three steps, there is a basic assumption that the past data represent some underlying process that can be identified and modeled. In some cases the past data may not represent the underlying process, and the forecasting process is seriously distorted. Some frequent causes of distorted data are 1) accounting methods that are used to record or collect the data, 2) marketing tactics such as promotions which that create outliers, 3) limits on production capacity that cause stockouts. This paper looks at events and actions that may distort data used for sales forecasting and at the resulting impact the events and actions may have on forecasting accuracy.     

需求增长型企业销量预测方法--以空调生产企业为例

基于基本时间序列分解法、回归分析法和定性预测法,根据“误差决定权重”的指导原则对各种单一预测方法进行权重分配,提出了适用于需求增长型空调生产企业销量综合性预测方法的基本思路,结合国内某空调生产企业实际调研数据给出了计算实例。     

Salesforce support systems: Potential applications to increase productivity

Microcomputer based sales support systems have been held out by meany as a solution to the increasingly high cost of the personal selling effort. Promises of increased productivity through both greater efficiency and effectiveness have been made by many vendors. The author proposes some guidelines which provide sales managers with assistance in deciding when and where such systems can be used to increase the productivity of the salesforce.     

Capturing the cross-national learning effect: An analysis of an industrial technology diffusion

Recent studies on cross-national diffusion have observed that when a new product innovation is introduced early in one country (the lead country) and with a time lag in subsequent countries (the lag countries), the consumers in the lag countries learn about the product from the lead country adopters, resulting in a faster diffusion rate in the lag countries. This study attempts to examine the relationship between lead and lag countries and to systematically capture thelearning effect that takes place between the two social systems. In particular, this research examines the diffusion of retail point-of-sale scanners in countries that belong to the European Union, the United States, and Japan. It offers interesting insights for formulating efficient international marketing strategies. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Houston in 1995. His research interests include global competition, international marketing strategy, cross-national diffusion of products and services, brand equity and brand extension, and issues in product development and introduction. He has been recognized with numerous teaching and research excellence awards and has published numerous articles in various scholarly journals in marketing and forecasting. He has coauthored a text titledMarketing Research and currently is working on other textbooks. He is on the editorial review board of many journals. He has lectured on marketing-related topics in various universities worldwide. His research interests include developing forecasting models, international marketing strategy and international marketing research issues, models for sales promotions, and new methodologies for product positioning and market segmentation. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Texas at Austin.     

Market forecasting with binomial plotting graph papers

A simple method of analyzing sales data is presented utilizing binomial plotting graph papers. The procedures for assembling the data, plotting the results and interpreting the developed information are presented in three examples. These examples demonstrate the results of a trial sales period, a forecast of national sales from the trial period, and a forecast for an expanded model line from a two model line. A technical appendix is included describing the binomial distribution and demonstrating its applicability to sales data and market forecasting.     

薪酬改革决策要点及其策略选择

进入新世纪以来,绝大部分企业、事业单位都进行了不同角度、不同深度的薪酬改革。薪酬策略决策的要点一般集中在以下八个问题上：企业与员工之间的分配关系;员工之间的分配关系;薪酬水平定位;工资等级制度;薪酬结构;是否统一两种用工的工资制度;基本工资和岗位绩效工资计发;特殊情况下的工资计发。尽管不同改革单位的薪酬决策要点基本相同,但却基于自身的经济效益不同,预算约束力不同以及其他方面不同的考虑,分别做出了差异很大的策略选择。     

对金融支持喀什特区建设的探析

中央新疆工作座谈会确定设立喀什经济特区的战略决策,使喀什的发展跃升为国家战略,经济特区的强大吸引力、国家的巨大支持、周边国家的广阔市场,对实现喀什地区跨越发展、造福各族人民,意义重大。未来的五到十年将是喀什发展的关键时期．本文对金融业如何支持喀什特区进行了探讨,并提出建议。     

Explaining the variation in short-term sales response to retail price promotions

This study focuses on the short-term sales response to price promotions in retail grocery stores and attempts to explain its variation using frequency of price promotions and the consecutive scheduling of price promotions. Retail managers’ expectations and tenets from behavioral theories provide the basis for the hypotheses that the frequency of price promotions and consecutive scheduling of price promotions affect short-term response to price promotions. The hypotheses are tested on three frequently purchased product categories, using store-level data from retail chains in three major markets. The analysis is validated with additional data on the same product categories and markets. A variety of managerial implications are drawn from the results and suggestions for future research are offered. He has been recognized with numerous teaching and research excellence awards. Dr. Kumar has published numerous articles in many scholarly journals in marketing and forecasting. He has coauthored a text titledMarketing Research and is currently working on two other textbooks. He is on the editorial review board of many journals. Dr. Kumar has lectured on marketing-related topics in various universities worldwide. His research interests include developing forecasting models, international marketing strategy and international marketing research issues, models for sales promotions, and new methodologies for product positioning and market segmentation. Dr. Kumar received his doctoral degree from the University of Texas at Austin. He has published articles about retailing and marketing strategy in scholarly journals such as theJournal of Retailing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, andJournal of Business Ethics. His current research interest focuses on models for sales promotions and marketing strategy. Dr. Pereira received his doctoral degree from the University of Houston.     

Using the calendar to improve sales forecasts

Monthly sales data for products whose sales fluctuate regularly according to the day of the week may be subject to a source of variation which makes model fitting and forecasting more difficult. This problem is described and illustrated within the context of the ARIMA class of univariate models. Procedures to recognize and account for the problem are presented, and improvements in the ability to forecast future sales are noted in the sample series examined.     

Selling strategies: The effects of suggesting a decision structure to novice and expert buyers

This research investigates the impact of selling strategies on selling effectiveness. The authors compare two selling strategies: (1) an agenda strategy, in which a salesperson attempts to influence the structure of the buyer’s decision by suggesting constraints that eliminate competitive products from consideration, and (2) a more typical selling strategy that summarizes the target product’s benefits. The results show that when sellers use an agenda selling strategy, target products receive higher evaluations and have higher probabilities of being considered and chosen. Buyer expertise moderates this effect, with the agenda strategy in most cases having more impact on novice buyers than on expert buyers. These findings demonstrate the importance of selling strategy to selling effectiveness, suggest the potential benefit for sellers of using selling strategies that attempt to influence the structure of the buyer’s decision, and provide support for the contingent nature of selling effectiveness. Judy A. Wagner (Ph.D., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) is currently an assistant professor of marketing at the University of Texas at Arlington. Her primary research interests are personal selling strategies, sales management, and buyer decision making. Her research has been published inAdvances in Consumer Research and the proceedings of the American Marketing Association and is forthcoming in theJournal of Business Research. Noreen M. Klein (Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University) is currently an associate professor of marketing at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Her research interests include consumer decision making and the behavioral aspects of pricing, and her research has been published in theJournal of Consumer Research andOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Making. Janet E. Keith (Ph.D., Arizona State University) is currently an associate professor of marketing at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Her research interests lie in behavioral issues in channels of distribution and in sales and sales management. Her studies have been published in journals such as theJournal of Marketing Research, Journal of Marketing, Journal of Business Research, andJournal of Marketing Channels.     

The power and politics of sales forecasting: Uncertainty absorption and the power of the Marketing Department

Recent concerns have focused on the adequacy of the power of Marketing Departments to implement the marketing concept and to put into effect marketing plans and strategies. The article analyzes the marketing function as an information processing activity, where one significant element of information processing is sales forecasting as an uncertainty absorption process. The major hypothesis is that the power of the Marketing Department can be partially explained by its control of sales forecasting, both directly but also indirectly through a set of strategic contingencies which make marketplace uncertainty critical to the firm. The argument is supported by empirical data from a study of manufacturing firms in the United Kingdom, and leads to the identification of a number of implications for managers and researchers.     

Salesforce decisions: A Markovian approach

This paper reports on the development, application, and evaluation of a Markov model used for macro sales force planning and control. The model portrays the succession of levels of sales force members from application to join the sales force, through all possible states, including possibilities of termination due to promotion, firing, and voluntary departures. The impact of several decision states such as recruiting, promotion, and training are then assessed, and the implications are evaluated through the use of the data from two large pharmaceutical firms. Several uses of the model are illustrated and the impact of managerial decisions on costs and profits are shown. The uses of the model for sales force design are also discussed.     

基于对数函数的电力需求预测模型构建及应用

采取多元回归的建模方式和逐步回归法,筛选出能够预测中国电力需求的关键影响因素,包括本期电力消耗量、年份、人口增长率、经济增长率、供电区域面积、工业品出厂价格指数,以对数函数为基础,可构建电量需求的短期预测模型和售电量的中长期时间序列预测模型。基于模型分析,可为电网企业的发展提供建议:强化电力需求预测,为确定投资规模提供科学依据;以电力需求引导电力投资规划,实现电力供求的动态平衡。     

电子商务模式下国际货物买卖合同的订立及规范

通过进行新的电子商务立法，或者对CISG等规范传统国际货物买卖的法律规范进行扩张性解释，可以在一定程度上回应电子商务的冲击；但是，在国际货物买卖合同的订立中仍有一些未决的问题甚至法律空白，诸如身份认证、电子签名等。     

企业人力资源规划模型库构建原则的确定及流程设计

人力资源规划是人力资源管理的首要工作,企业人力资源规划模型库是将规划的需求预测、供给预测和供求平衡调节作为一个整体来研究,构建了包括预测模型和供求平衡决策模型在内的一个模型库。根据企业人力资源规划的特点及影响内外部环境因素制定了企业构建人力资源规划模型库的原则,包括:目标性原则、系统性原则、动态性原则、独特性原则、科学预测原则、共同发展原则。并在遵循原则的基础上,根据人力资源规划流程确定了企业人力资源规划模型库的构建流程。     

我国增值税遵从行为的影响因素研究

增值税是我国税收体系的核心税种，尽管税收征管不断加强，但是增值税逃税现象仍然较严重。为了抑制增值税不遵从行为，有必要对影响增值税逃税的因素进行分析，进而为治理增值税不遵从行为提供思路。本文通过构建增值税逃税模型对增值税逃税影响因素进行研究，得出结论是：稽查水平、稽查率、处罚率、销售收入等对增值税逃税有一定影响。我国应该强化稽查水平和处罚机制，提高对逃税的威慑力。同时加强增值税专用发票管理，深化增值税税源监控，有效降低增值税逃税行为。