The industrial and commercial demand for electricity under time-of-use pricing

In this paper we have developed and estimated the demand for electricity by an industrial (commercial) firm subject to time-of-use (TOU) pricing of electric power. In the application we use a quadratic production function and directly incorporate into the production process the restrictions that some inputs cannot vary over the day. We show that the TOU structure implies a unique set of parameter restrictions across the demand functions for inputs.     

试论新能源汽车市场需求

伴随着全球经济的发展,全球的环境污染逐渐加剧。汽车的快速普及也增加了环境污染的程度。如何有效地开发和利用新能源成为急需解决的问题。文章通过对新能源的开发以及市场上消费者对新能源的期待和需求进行相关阐述。     

就业需求与工业化相互关系的实证研究

长期以来,工业化文献中多数从供给的角度强调资本是解决工业化问题的决定作用,忽视市场需求约束,把欠发达国家视作天然的萨伊法则统治的古典世界,刘易斯(1989)指出经济发展理论的中心问题是要理解一个社会由原先储蓄和投资还不到国民收入的4％-5％转变为自愿的储蓄达到国民收入12％～15％以上的这个过程,而随着发展中国家出现了大量过剩的生产能力,学者们开始探索发展     

Residential energy demand in the United States: A regional econometric analysis

A static equilibrium and a dynamic partial adjustment model of residential demand for electricity and natural gas are presented and estimated for the United States over a recent period characterized by sharply increasing energy prices. The static model is estimated using Ordinary Least Squares while the instrumental variables method is used for the dynamic partial adjustment model. The estimates of long-run elasticities suggest the residential demand for electricity and natural gas are price and income elastic. Intercept and slope dummies used in the models identify significant regional differences in demand functions.     

Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models

This paper considers finite sample motivated structural change tests in the multivariate linear regression model with application to energy demand models, in which case commonly used structural change tests remain asymptotic. As in Dufour and Kiviet [1996. Exact tests for structural change in first-order dynamic models. Journal of Econometrics 70, 39–68], we account for intervening nuisance parameters through a two-stage maximized Monte Carlo test procedure. Our contributions can be classified into five categories: (i) we extend tests for which a finite-sample theory has been supplied for Gaussian distributions to the non-Gaussian context; (ii) we show that Bai et al. [1998. Testing and dating common breaks in multi-variate time series. The Review of Economic Studies 65 (3), 395–432] test severely over-rejects and propose exact variants of this test; (iii) we consider predictive break test approaches which generalize tests in Dufour [1980. Dummy variables and predictive tests for structural change. Economics Letters 6, 241–247] and Dufour and Kiviet [1996. Exact tests for structural change in first-order dynamic models. Journal of Econometrics 70, 39–68]; (iv) we propose exact (non-Bonferonni based) extensions of the multivariate outliers test from Wilks [1963. Multivariate statistical outliers. Sankhya Series A 25, 407–426] to models with covariates; (v) we apply these tests to the energy demand system analyzed by Arsenault et al. [1995. A total energy demand model of Québec: forecasting properties. Energy Economics 17 (2), 163–171]. For two out of the six industrial sectors analyzed over the 1962–2000 period, break and further goodness-of-fit and diagnostic tests allow to identify (and correct) specification problems arising from historical regulatory changes or (possibly random) industry-specific effects. The procedures we propose have potential useful applications in statistics, econometrics and finance (e.g. event studies).     

The demand for gasoline: a two stage approach

The demand for gasoline has typically been estimated using a reduced-form equation model. The simplicity of the approach is attractive, but has proven to be costly in terms of the insights lost as to the nature of the processes governing the interdependence between fuel efficiency and the overall demand for gasoline. On the other hand, disaggregating the overall demand for gasoline into all of its components produces an enormous amount of detail and many insights, but increases commensurately the complexity of the system and reduces its usefulness in forecasting.A two stage simple demand equation is used which first involves an estimation of the level of fuel efficiency of the fleet stock in terms of price induced technical change. In the second stage, the first equation is coupled with other typical demand variables to determine the overall demand for gasoline. The procedure provides an excellent forecasting equation of both the short-and long-term demand for gasoline.     

天津市产业结构与能源消费强度分析

发展低碳经济将对城市产业结构调整产生巨大影响。就能源消费、经济增长和产业结构之间的关系做扼要阐述;通过时间序列分析来验证天津市经济增长与能源消费的关系,并通过各产业能源消耗强度、结构效应与强度效应、单位GDP能耗等指标来考查产业结构对能源消费的影响;结合天津市产业发展现状提出了结构调整的建议。     

电子商务行业凸显物流需求

作为一种新兴的商业模式,电子商务最早产生于二十世纪60年代,90年代得到长足发展.目前,电子商务在欧美国家已十分普及.在法、德等欧洲国家,电子商务所产生的营业额已占商务总额的1/4,而在美国,其所占比例则高达1/3以上.     

The demand for retailer-financed instalment credit: An econometric analysis

During the mid- to late 1980s the UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer has attempted to reduce the volume of consumer credit extended by increasing interest rates rather than by re-introducing terms controls. This paper presents estimates of demand functions for new credit extended by retailers which was financed by them and repaid by instalments. Following earlier papers, a stock-adjustment model is presented that is extended to allow for credit rationing. The results suggest that the demand for such new credit extended is related negatively to terms control and positively to personal disposable income and expectations. Demand was not found to be related to (a proxy for) the nominal interest rate charged by retailers (although it was found to be positively related to the real rate). The former finding is consistent with questionnaire evidence that consumers are unaware of the interest rate that they pay for credit. Elasticities of demand are presented.     

The demand for housing in developing countries: The case of Korea

This paper presents the results of an analysis of urban housing demand for Korea taking into account the most recent findings of housing demand analysis concerning specification and aggregation biases. In order to obtain correctly specified demand functions, a procedure based on a model of the housing market originally proposed by Muth is used. Drawing on the detailed land information available in Korea, this procedure permits the calculation of an individual price per unit of housing services for each household. The results show conclusively that both the income and price elasticity of the demand for housing services in Korea are comparable to those found in the United States: the income elasticity is smaller than one and the price elasticity is negative and smaller than one in absolute value. Given the number of countries found within the per capita income range between Korea ($700) and the United States ($7800), the finding that these two countries have comparable demand elasticities is of major significance: in the absence of good national estimates, the order of magnitudes found here would be used for other country analyses.     

工业结构调整与节能减排推进——以广东省为例

节能减排,一方面制约着我国沿海一些产业类型的发展,给整体沿海经济发展带来全面压力,但另一方面又给沿海经济带来了产业结构调整与升级的契机.通过我国沿海和广东省的工业实践,印证了世界工业发展深化的一般规律,即工业深化能够推进节能减排的原理.     

论道德需要对法的影响

道德需要是将社会客观需要与法相联系的中间环节。道德需要是决定法产生的主观因素,其影响着法的发展和演变,法的实现与其密切相关。     

The structure of US food demand

An exactly aggregable system of Gorman Engel curves for US food consumption is developed and implemented. Box-Cox transformations on prices and income nest functional form. The model nests rank up to rank three. The model is estimated by nonlinear three-stage least squares with annual time series data on 21 foods, 17 nutrients, age and race demographics, and the distribution of income for 1919–1941 and 1947–2000. Results are consistent with full rank three. Point estimates for the Box-Cox parameters on income and prices are 0.86 and 1.09, respectively, strongly rejecting zero and one in both cases. No statistical evidence of serial correlation, specification errors, or parameter instability is found.     

上海市信用行业人才需求及对策

由于信用行业在我国是一个逐渐被重视和逐渐扩大的行业,对该行业应如何界定,至今没有统一的说法。因此在展开研究之前,我们尝试对信用服务及管理行业提出我们的界定,以期与对信用相关课题有兴趣的同仁共同探讨。     

US professional football: The demand for game-day attendance in 1991

This paper examines the factors which affect game-day attendance at National Football League games during the 1991 season. Using a Tobit analysis, the model includes economic as well as quality of game variables as explanatory variables. This analysis reveals that: higher ticket prices reduce attendance with the demand appearing to be inelastic; and a winning home team spurs game-day attendance.     

The stability of the demand for fossil fuels by electric utilities

The view that the regional demand for fossil fuels by electric utilities in the United States is characterized by stable relationships is subjected to an objective statistical test. The test utilizes a statistic which equals the ratio of the sum of squared residuals of one period prediction from the k + 1 period to the rth period to the sum of squared residuals of one period prediction from the k + 1 to the Tth period, where k is the number of estimated coefficients in the model and T is the sample size. The results suggest for the period 1973 through 1978, that the fossil fuel demand functions in Region II and Region VIII and the coal demand function in Region X became unstable around 1977. For the other regions, the results indicate no appreciable (statistically significant) change in the relative importance of the underlying determinants of the demand for fossil fuels.