The industrial and commercial demand for electricity under time-of-use pricing

In this paper we have developed and estimated the demand for electricity by an industrial (commercial) firm subject to time-of-use (TOU) pricing of electric power. In the application we use a quadratic production function and directly incorporate into the production process the restrictions that some inputs cannot vary over the day. We show that the TOU structure implies a unique set of parameter restrictions across the demand functions for inputs.     

试论新能源汽车市场需求

伴随着全球经济的发展,全球的环境污染逐渐加剧。汽车的快速普及也增加了环境污染的程度。如何有效地开发和利用新能源成为急需解决的问题。文章通过对新能源的开发以及市场上消费者对新能源的期待和需求进行相关阐述。     

The demand for industrial sites in a metropolitan area: Theory,empirical evidence,and policy implications

A model of urban manufacturing location is developed in order to explain the demand for industrial sites in a metropolitan area. Within the theory of qualitative choice behavior, firms identified by a set of eight characteristics are viewed as selecting sites possessing two attributes of varying degrees of importance to different kinds of firms. Using a multinomial logit specification, the model is estimated for the Cincinnati SMSA. The results lend support to the firm-specific nature of the site selection process. Information concerning the determination of the spatial distribution of the firm types in Cincinnati is derived from the analysis. Implications for the possible effectiveness of a policy initiative designed to alter existing patterns of urban industrial location conclude the paper.     

The demand for season of birth

We study the determinants of season of birth for married women aged 20–45 in the USA, using birth certificate and Census data. We also elicit the willingness to pay for season of birth through discrete‐choice experiments implemented on the Amazon Mechanical Turk platform. We document that the probability of a spring first birth is significantly related to mother's age, education, race, ethnicity, smoking status during pregnancy, receiving WIC (Women, Infants & Children) food benefits during pregnancy, prepregnancy obesity, and the mother working in “education, training, and library” occupations; whereas among unmarried women without a father acknowledged on their child's birth certificate, all our findings are muted. A summer first birth does not depend on socioeconomic characteristics, although it is the most common birth season in the USA. Among married women aged 20–45, we estimate the average marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for a spring birth to be 877 USD. This implies a willingness to trade‐off 560 grams of birth weight in the normal range to achieve a spring birth. Finally, we estimate that an increase of 1,000 USD in the predicted marginal WTP for a spring birth is associated with a 15 pp (percentage points) increase in the probability of obtaining an actual spring birth.     

The derived demand for faculty research

Estimation of the demands for many services supplied by government and charitable organizations are hampered by two practices common to the supply of these services. The suppliers often employ non‐price rationing of these services, and they price discriminate. The supply of college training, for example, is rationed on the basis of academic ability as well as willingness to pay, and more able students are typically quoted lower net prices (associated with scholarships) than less able students. This paper suggests a method for dealing with both practices in the analysis of cross‐sectional data. This methodology is used to investigate the question of why university faculty members are expected to do research as well as teach. One answer supported by our empirical work is that the customers (e.g., the students) demand it. Thus, controlling for price and non‐academic features, better students will choose to attend a university where more scholarly research is performed. Moreover, our empirical findings also support a strong negative link between faculty time devoted to teaching and the supply of research. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

就业需求与工业化相互关系的实证研究

长期以来,工业化文献中多数从供给的角度强调资本是解决工业化问题的决定作用,忽视市场需求约束,把欠发达国家视作天然的萨伊法则统治的古典世界,刘易斯(1989)指出经济发展理论的中心问题是要理解一个社会由原先储蓄和投资还不到国民收入的4％-5％转变为自愿的储蓄达到国民收入12％～15％以上的这个过程,而随着发展中国家出现了大量过剩的生产能力,学者们开始探索发展     

The demand for energy in Canadian manufacturing: An example of the estimation of production structures with many inputs

A model is presented for the estimation of production structures with many inputs when aggregation into a small number of aggregate inputs is undesirable. The procedure utilized is one of two-stage optimization, valid under the assumption of homothetic separability. A unique feature is the use of duality theory to integrate the two stages through the generation in the first stage of an instrumental variable for the aggregate price index of the separable disaggregated factors. The conceptual model is then applied to an analysis of the demand for energy in Canadian manufacturing, in which six energy components are explicitly included in the set of factors of production.     

The demand for and supply of assurance

Consumers want products and services that are safe and of good quality. Corresponding to such demand is the demand for assurance , before the fact, that the quality and safety will be as promised. his demand for assurance creates opportunities for entrepreneurs to profit by providing assurance - and they do so in a wide and largely unappreciated variety of ways. The essential dialectic of the free enterprise system does apply to assurance. Governments'quality and safety restrictions on the freedom of contract, known to be so costly, are, therefore, unredeemed and should be repealed.     

The demand for gasoline: a two stage approach

The demand for gasoline has typically been estimated using a reduced-form equation model. The simplicity of the approach is attractive, but has proven to be costly in terms of the insights lost as to the nature of the processes governing the interdependence between fuel efficiency and the overall demand for gasoline. On the other hand, disaggregating the overall demand for gasoline into all of its components produces an enormous amount of detail and many insights, but increases commensurately the complexity of the system and reduces its usefulness in forecasting.A two stage simple demand equation is used which first involves an estimation of the level of fuel efficiency of the fleet stock in terms of price induced technical change. In the second stage, the first equation is coupled with other typical demand variables to determine the overall demand for gasoline. The procedure provides an excellent forecasting equation of both the short-and long-term demand for gasoline.     

Residential energy demand in the United States: A regional econometric analysis

A static equilibrium and a dynamic partial adjustment model of residential demand for electricity and natural gas are presented and estimated for the United States over a recent period characterized by sharply increasing energy prices. The static model is estimated using Ordinary Least Squares while the instrumental variables method is used for the dynamic partial adjustment model. The estimates of long-run elasticities suggest the residential demand for electricity and natural gas are price and income elastic. Intercept and slope dummies used in the models identify significant regional differences in demand functions.     

Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models

This paper considers finite sample motivated structural change tests in the multivariate linear regression model with application to energy demand models, in which case commonly used structural change tests remain asymptotic. As in Dufour and Kiviet [1996. Exact tests for structural change in first-order dynamic models. Journal of Econometrics 70, 39–68], we account for intervening nuisance parameters through a two-stage maximized Monte Carlo test procedure. Our contributions can be classified into five categories: (i) we extend tests for which a finite-sample theory has been supplied for Gaussian distributions to the non-Gaussian context; (ii) we show that Bai et al. [1998. Testing and dating common breaks in multi-variate time series. The Review of Economic Studies 65 (3), 395–432] test severely over-rejects and propose exact variants of this test; (iii) we consider predictive break test approaches which generalize tests in Dufour [1980. Dummy variables and predictive tests for structural change. Economics Letters 6, 241–247] and Dufour and Kiviet [1996. Exact tests for structural change in first-order dynamic models. Journal of Econometrics 70, 39–68]; (iv) we propose exact (non-Bonferonni based) extensions of the multivariate outliers test from Wilks [1963. Multivariate statistical outliers. Sankhya Series A 25, 407–426] to models with covariates; (v) we apply these tests to the energy demand system analyzed by Arsenault et al. [1995. A total energy demand model of Québec: forecasting properties. Energy Economics 17 (2), 163–171]. For two out of the six industrial sectors analyzed over the 1962–2000 period, break and further goodness-of-fit and diagnostic tests allow to identify (and correct) specification problems arising from historical regulatory changes or (possibly random) industry-specific effects. The procedures we propose have potential useful applications in statistics, econometrics and finance (e.g. event studies).     

The demand for M3 in the euro area

In this paper, an empirically stable money demand model for M3 in the euro area is constructed. Starting with a multivariate system, three cointegrating relationships with economic content are found: (i) the spread between the long‐term and the short‐term nominal interest rates, (ii) the long‐term real interest rate, and (iii) a long‐run demand for broad money M3. There is evidence that the determinants of M3 money demand are weakly exogenous with respect to the long‐run parameters. Hence, following a general‐to‐specific modelling approach, a parsimonious conditional error‐correction model for M3 money demand is derived which can be interpreted economically. For the conditional model, long‐run and short‐run parameter stability is extensively tested and not rejected. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

天津市产业结构与能源消费强度分析

发展低碳经济将对城市产业结构调整产生巨大影响。就能源消费、经济增长和产业结构之间的关系做扼要阐述;通过时间序列分析来验证天津市经济增长与能源消费的关系,并通过各产业能源消耗强度、结构效应与强度效应、单位GDP能耗等指标来考查产业结构对能源消费的影响;结合天津市产业发展现状提出了结构调整的建议。     

电子商务行业凸显物流需求

作为一种新兴的商业模式,电子商务最早产生于二十世纪60年代,90年代得到长足发展.目前,电子商务在欧美国家已十分普及.在法、德等欧洲国家,电子商务所产生的营业额已占商务总额的1/4,而在美国,其所占比例则高达1/3以上.     

The demand for computer services: A disaggregate decision model

Pricing schedules for computer resources have traditionally been based on ‘cost-recovery’ principles. While economists have begun to address pricing based on marginal congestion costs, most models take demand to be exogenous and given. Discrete alternatives are inadequately treated, and aggregation of data precludes any assessment of the impact of transaction size on consumers' decisions. Using disaggregated data, this paper derives empirical results confirming that consumers are strongly influenced by transaction sizes. Simulation experiments demonstrate that price incentives designed to modify the use of computer resources are considerably more effective if the distribution of demand is weighted towards large transactions.     

The demand for housing in developing countries: The case of Korea

This paper presents the results of an analysis of urban housing demand for Korea taking into account the most recent findings of housing demand analysis concerning specification and aggregation biases. In order to obtain correctly specified demand functions, a procedure based on a model of the housing market originally proposed by Muth is used. Drawing on the detailed land information available in Korea, this procedure permits the calculation of an individual price per unit of housing services for each household. The results show conclusively that both the income and price elasticity of the demand for housing services in Korea are comparable to those found in the United States: the income elasticity is smaller than one and the price elasticity is negative and smaller than one in absolute value. Given the number of countries found within the per capita income range between Korea ($700) and the United States ($7800), the finding that these two countries have comparable demand elasticities is of major significance: in the absence of good national estimates, the order of magnitudes found here would be used for other country analyses.