银行危机的蝴蝶效应、负外部性及其防治

对于银行突发事件,若处理不当则会演变成银行危机,乃至会对社会金融和经济产生严重影响。本文从内生性突发事件和外生性突发事件出发,探讨了“蝴蝶效应”导致发生局部银行危机的可能性;运用外部性经济学原理,对银行突发事件的负外部效应和风险溢出进行了探讨。对于突发事件与银行危机的解决,可以从监管机构与商业银行两个方面加强治理:对于监管机构而言,央行要发挥金融稳定职能实施外部援助,银行监管部门加强对商业银行的外部监督;对于商业银行而言,应加强内控机制建设,增强管理层对突发事件的预防和处置能力,防止工作人员道德风险的产生。     

商业银行资产配置失误与银行危机

在过去的15年里，全世界发生过100起以上的银行危机；在国际货币基金组织181个成员国中，有130个发生过程度不同的银行问题。综观90年代以来的银行危机案例，尽管它们发生的社会制度背景、金融经济环境、法律框架、爆发的“引线”、持续的时间、影响的广度和深度等方面存在着相当大的差异，然而，如果我们对这些危机详细加以考察就会发现，银行危机之所以发生，归根结底还是因为资产配置效率低下。换句话说就是，商业银行资产配置战略的失误是银行危机产生的根本原因。而商业银行的资产配置行为又是与商业银行的内部控制制度和外部监管制度密切相关的。根据现代制度经济学的观点，制度结构制约着经济主体的行为空间。……     

金融科技、银行服务与银行风险

随着金融与科技融合程度的不断加深,金融科技对银行服务和银行风险均产生了深刻影响。作为金融科技的技术载体,底层技术会从产品、机构、金融生态、间接影响等不同维度对银行服务产生影响,进而导致银行风险的变化。在金融科技发展背景下,银行风险的演化特征包括操作风险异化、个人业务风险上升、风险关联性增强、直接风险加大等。针对风险的变化,需要厘清银行与其他机构之间的业务和职责边界,加强对中小银行与外部科技公司合作的监管,同时改进对操作风险的资本计量要求。     

试论加强我国商业银行的境外机构监管

为顺应世界经济一体化、金融国际化、资本国际化的潮流，我国商业银行纷纷走出国(境)门，步入国际金融市场，大力开展跨境经营。国际金融市场机会多，同时风险也大，加强商业银行跨境经营监管相当重要。本文根据我国商业银行跨境经营的现状和特点，分析了我国商业银行的境外机构监管存在的问题，论述了我国加强对商业银行境外机构监管的国际法依据，并从我国银行监管当局和商业银行母行的角度提出加强境外分支机构监管的对策措施。     

外部监管—内部审计联动与商业银行监管有效性研究北大核心

银行机构重大违法、违规问题的出现,很多时候与内部审计未起到应有的监督作用有关。此次危机后,国际监管组织与各主要国家,均强调监管机构应与商业银行通过建立多渠道沟通机制、强化监审双方工作成果的应用,以及加强银行内部审计职能的监管评估来提升银行内部审计的有效性,促进监管机构与内审部门形成风险管控合力。本文结合广西银行业监管实践,探索提出了商业银行外部监管与内部审计联动制度和具体机制,以实现监管部门与银行内审部门的有机结合,切实形成内外监督的全覆盖,有效提升内外联动的监管效能,以推动辖内股份制商业银行内控管理能力和约束力的不断提升。未来,加强监审联动提升监管质效,要指导商业银行改进内审工作、健全和完善内审机制,提升内审人员素质和内审技巧,构建与内审的相互信任和密切合作机制,有序实施定期的外部监管评估,并在现场检查监审联动工作方面积极进行探索。     

关于商业银行潜在问题的深层思考

随着金融一体化的发展和次贷危机在世界范围内爆发,以及我国商业银行本身存在的多方面问题,使得我国商业银行越来越重视对危机的产生机理和管理策略的研究,从而防止风险转化为危机的可能性。本文首先从现阶段危机的种种表现出发,其次从银行的本质特点、评级机构和监管体系的缺陷来分析危机出现的深层原因,并相应进行有效的策略分析。     

我国商业银行危机管理研究

在充满竞争与风险的现代社会,突发性事件的发生常常招致危机的到来。对商业银行而言,高负债性及由此引起的银行脆弱性使得银行机构更易受到“银行危机”的侵袭。国际货币基金组织在1998年5月出版的《世界经济展望》中将“银行危机”界定为:实际或潜在的银行挤兑(bank runs)与银行失败(bank failures),引致银行停止偿还负债或防止此一情况的出现政府被迫大规模提供援助。为降低“实际或潜在的银行挤兑与银行失败”,达到未雨绸缪的效果,金融机构及理论工作者应做好危机事件管理及相应的理论研究工作。本文主要通过考察商业银行危机事件的诱因与类型,探讨我国商业银行危机事件管理的机制与流程。一、商业银行加强危机事件管理的紧迫性影响我国商业银行发生突发性事件有两大因素:(一)内部因素第一,银行业自身的脆弱性。商业银行是高负债经营性质的机构,其运营基础是“信用”,具有强大的外部依赖效应。在全球化背景下,客户对银行信心的丧失具有极强的破坏效应,且银行间危机传递极其迅速。因此,加强对突发性事件导致的银行机构危机的管理刻不容缓。第二,商业银行管理者往往缺乏危机管理意识。一直以来,政府为保护储户的存款本金和合法利息给予银行较多的援助...     

浅析商业银行设立基金管理公司的影响

我国已开始的商业银行设立基金管理公司的试点工作是进一步放松金融管制,促进金融市场合理竞争与健康发展的又一重要举措,“银行系”基金的出现一方面对促进商业银行改革具有重要意义,另一方面也给金融体系的稳定带来风险。文章着重探讨了“银行系”基金对商业银行传统业务的冲击及在制度缺陷下与之可能产生的联动风险,提出“银行系”基金公司与商业银行加快建立现代公司治理结构,在金融产品创新中各有侧重以及监管机构间加强监管协调是有效防范风险,保证“银行系”基金公司与商业银行健康发展的关键。     

商业银行资产证券化:行为风险与金融监管

为探讨商业银行资产证券化行为产生的金融风险及相应监管建议,从商业银行资产证券化行为入手,在微观层次上,分析其对单个银行风险水平影响,在宏观层次上,分析其对金融市场流动性风险产生的影响。研究表明:商业银行资产证券化行为降低银行信贷监督水平,增强风险承担意愿,给单个银行的风险水平带来负面影响;商业银行资产证券化行为产生流动性扩张机制,当外部冲击使投资者信心下降时,金融市场表现为流动性骤然波动;当外部冲击到来时,次级投资者将先陷入混乱,威胁金融稳定,甚至会传染至整个经济体系。最后,给出相应监管建议。     

新会计准则实施对银行类金融机构的经营和监管影响

新金融会计准则的全面实施,对于银行类金融机构来说是一次重大的会计制度变迁,商业银行的经营将随之产生一系列影响,而对于商业银行的监管来说,也面临着许多新挑战。本文基于银行类金融机构,分析了新金融会计准则的公允价值计量、衍生金融工具披露、新资产负债分类方式、新减值准备计提方法等方面对商业银行的经营及监管的影响,并提出了构建合理的商业银行风险评价体系,创新监管方式,加强对商业银行窗口指导和审慎监管,建立新的评价体系等监管对策。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:     

The China puzzle: Opportunities for accounting research

How can China achieve phenomenal economic growth despite what is considered as 'weak' institutions in market-based economies? Xu(2011) provides a framework to u...