Natural gas,trade and sustainable growth: empirical evidence from the top gas consumers of the developing world

Natural gas is the key non-renewable source of energy for a low-carbon economy. The research applies heterogeneous panel techniques to investigate the impact of natural gas consumption on economic growth across a panel of top 15 natural gas consumers of the developing world. We establish long-run dynamics with cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across the sample countries. The long-run output elasticities suggest that the natural gas consumption and trade variables have significant positive effect on the output in a panel of developing economies. Further, we establish feedback relationship among gas consumption, output and trade in the short-run. Given the significance of natural gas as the low-emission source of energy, we suggest governments and policy advisers of these major natural gas consumers to focus on developing pipeline infrastructure for adequate supply, reforming natural gas sector with a competitive price structure to combat excess demand in individual natural gas market. With trade integration, majority of these countries need to incorporate these initiatives to improve the technologies such as combined cycle power plant technology and value-added chemical production technology to achieve sustainable economic growth.     

Financial market development and trade openness: evidence from emerging economies

International trade is said to be the engine of economic growth. Despite an enormous effort to explain this phenomenon, the relationship between financial market development and trade openness and integration into the world economy is still an enigma. This article investigates the relationship between financial market development and trade openness. To do this, we develop a long-run and short-run model (a bounds testing approach to cointegration) for 18 emerging economies over the period 1980 to 2011. Estimates from all models show that financial market development, including both the stock market and the banking sector, has significant effect on trade openness in both short-run and long-run phenomena in the majority of countries. Despite many similarities among emerging economies, additional evidence suggests that the link between either stock market development or banking sector development with trade openness works via each country’s specific structure.     

CO2 emissions,economic growth,energy consumption,trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis

This paper investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for a panel of new EU member and candidate countries over the period 1992–2010. Panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality tests are used to investigate this relationship. The main results provide evidence supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Hence, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between environment and income for the sampled countries. The results also indicate that there is a short-run unidirectional panel causality running from energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization to carbon emissions, from GDP to energy consumption, from GDP, energy consumption and urbanization to trade openness, from urbanization to GDP, and from urbanization to trade openness. As for the long-run causal relationship, the results indicate that estimated coefficients of lagged error correction term in the carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, GDP, and trade openness equations are statistically significant, implying that these four variables could play an important role in adjustment process as the system departs from the long-run equilibrium.     

A two-sector Kaleckian model of growth and distribution with endogenous productivity dynamics

This study extends a two-sector Kaleckian model of output growth and income distribution by incorporating endogenous labour productivity growth. The model is composed of investment goods and consumption goods production sectors. The impact of a change in wage and profit shares on capacity utilisation and output growth rates at the sectoral and aggregate levels are identified. The study reveals short-run cyclical capacity utilisation rates and productivity growth dynamics. Even if the short-run steady state is stable, the capital accumulation rate in the consumption goods sector must decrease more than that in the investment sector for long-run stability. When simultaneous rises in profit shares in both the sectors affect long-run aggregate economic growth differently at a steady state, the distributional interests between the same class in different sectors may hamper the long-run economic growth. A policy message is that the effect of income distribution on industrial output growth is not always beneficial. These phenomena are specific to two-sector models and cannot be observed when using conventional aggregate growth models.     

International Trade, Technology Transfer, Growth, and Welfare in a Schumpeterian Model of Endogenous Growth

This paper provides a simple analysis of the role of international technology transfer in the determination of the long-run pattern of trade, growth, and welfare in a two-country world within an endogenous growth framework. It is shown how the possibility and form of technology transfer impinge upon the long-run pattern of trade and therefore long-run growth rates and welfare. The most interesting finding of this paper is that, under certain conditions, there is a case in which restricted trade is growth- and welfare-enhancing compared with free trade.     

Explaining differences in the productivity of investment across countries in the context of ‘new growth theory’

The purpose of this paper is to explain differences in the productivity of investment across 84 rich and poor countries over the period 1980–2011, and to test the orthodox neoclassical assumption of diminishing returns to capital. The productivity of investment is measured as the ratio of the long-run growth of GDP to a country’s gross investment ratio. Twenty potential determinants are considered using a general-to-specific model selection algorithm. Education, government consumption, geography, export growth, openness, political rights and macroeconomic instability are the most important variables. The data also suggest constant returns to capital, so investment and the determinants of productivity of investment differences matter for long-run growth.     

Patterns of Trade and Growth Under Increasing Returns: Escape from the Poverty Trap—a Comment

The paper generalizes a two-sector model of trade and growth in which the investment good sector exhibits an initial phase of increasing returns. It dispenses with the restriction that the utility function be of the isoelastic type. Allowing for general concave utility functions, it demonstrates that the qualitative properties of optimal growth and trade patterns are robust with respect to a wide choice of functional forms.
JEL Classification Numbers: O41, F12.     

ON THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT PATTERNS OF PUBLIC CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

The multiplier effects resulting from an isolated increase in the level of public consumption within different public branches are investigated and the policy implications are discussed. The article begins with a theorethical analysis which shows why and in which ways these multipliers can be expected to differ between public branches. Thereafter, an empirical investigation is given, based on simulations with an econometric model of the Swedish economy. In this model the public activities are divided into 13 different public branches. The effects of an increase in public consumption on employment, imports and private consumption are found to differ considerably depending on which branch of the public sector is expanded. Some implications for short run stabilization policy are discussed. The article ends with a special analysis of the implications for a medium term planning problem: the trade off between private and public consumption growth. This analysis throws new light on the old topic "private or public consumption". In an economy with highly differentiated production in the public sector the trade-off is shown not to be unique. The sacrifice of private consumption growth corresponding to a given growth of public consumption expenditures will vary considerably according to the distribution of the public consumption growth within the different branches of the public sector.     

Pollution,energy use,GDP and trade: estimating the long-run relationship for Vietnam

Since the beginning of economic reform in the 1980s and, in particular, with its openness to international trade accelerating since the 1990s, the Vietnamese economy has registered significant growth. At the same time, energy consumption and the level of pollution in Vietnam has also increased. This article aims to focus on the link between openness to trade and pollution in Vietnam. Due to lack of data, very few existing studies have focused on Vietnam. Using annual data from1980 to 2011 and employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration, based on an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model, we find that there is a statistically significant long-run relationship amongst pollution, openness to trade, energy consumption and real national income in Vietnam. This conclusion continues to hold when the possibility of a structural break in the relationship is allowed for using the Gregory-Hansen approach to cointegration. Analysis of the cointegration relationship suggests that, in response to any exogenous shock to the system, adjustment back to the long-run equilibrium is very fast.     

Review article. Growth and stagnation in a two-sector model: Kaldor's Mattioli Lectures

Kaldor's Mattioli Lectures analyse a two-sector model with increasingreturns to scale (IRS) in industry and diminishing returns inagriculture (DR). This review article shows that (i) with IRSin industry, a long-run equilibrium growth path with strictlypositive growth rates may exist even if agriculture is subjectto DR; (ii) the industrial sector is the 'engine of growth'if agricultural investment is determined passively by availablesaving; and (iii) if one introduces a separate agriculturalinvestment function, both positive and negative agriculturalsupply shocks may lead to stagnation, thus vindicating Kaldor'semphasis on commodity price stabilisation.     

MEASURES OF STOCK MARKET VALUE AND RETURNS FOR THE U.S. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE SECTOR, 1900–2002

This paper describes a new dataset of annual time series relating to the U.S. nonfinancial corporate sector: its market value, returns, and the major underlying stocks and flows that are valued by financial markets. The data cover the entire twentieth century, and thus fill a significant gap in the documentation of financial and real economy linkages. Previously available data cover either shorter periods, or a more restricted sample of quoted companies. A range of series are constructed on a consistent basis: returns; dividend yields (including an alternative "cashflow" measure); earnings; and " q ", on a range of definitions; as well as corporate leverage measures. The main features are: the relative long-run stability of both q and the cashflow dividend yield; the systematic tendency for q to be less than unity; and the ambiguous picture presented by alternative measures of corporate leverage.     

The impact of financial development,income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy

This paper examines the long-run equilibrium and the existence and direction of a causal relationship between carbon emissions, financial development, economic growth, energy consumption and trade openness for India. Our main contribution to the literature on Indian studies lies in the investigation of the causes of carbon emissions by taking into account the role of financial development and using single country data. The results suggest that there is evidence on the long-run and causal relationships between carbon emissions, financial development, income, energy use and trade openness. Financial development has a long-run positive impact on carbon emissions, implying that financial development improves environmental degradation. Moreover, Granger causality test indicates a long-run unidirectional causality running from financial development to carbon emissions and energy use. The evidence suggests that financial system should take into account the environment aspect in their current operations. The results of this study may be of great importance for policy and decision-makers in order to develop energy policies for India that contribute to the curbing of carbon emissions while preserving economic growth.     

Saving Rates, Trade, Technology, and Stochastic Dynamics

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the stochastic dynamics of small growing trading economies with CES sector technologies. The open neoclassical two-sector growth model with a diffusion process (uncertainty) for the aggregate saving/investment ratio is demonstrated with sample paths and long-run probability distributions of the overall factor endowment ratio. Stochastic endogenous growth and cycles require a combination of fundamental growth parameter values: saving rates, terms of trade, and sectorial substitution elasticities.     

The Long-run Trade Pattern in a Growing Economy

We analyze the determinants of the trade pattern in a two-country growing economy. The long-run trade pattern depends on the structure of the absolute advantage as well as the comparative advantage, because the absolute advantage determines the terms of trade and the value of the marginal product of capital which affect the growth rate in our model. Moreover, we find that opening trade reduces or removes the difference in the growth rates of the two countries when the country lagging in the growth rate has a comparative advantage in a consumption commodity. Received June 18, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003     

Leisure time, savings and trade patterns A two-country growth model

This paper proposes a simple two-country endogenous growth model with endogenous consumption, leisure time and wealth accumulation. The model examines possible causes for the world economic growth and the existence and persistence of trade patterns between countries with different preferceces and human capital under internationally free capital mobility. We show how differences in preferences in consumption, leisure time and wealth between the two countries may affect long-run world economic growth.     

Trade Policy Transparency and Investor Confidence: Some Implications for an Effective Trade Policy Review Mechanism

This paper is concerned with the value of the WTO's Trade Policy Review Mechanism, particularly its transparency role and its potential role in policy stability, for investor confidence in developing countries. The implications of reduced risk and uncertainty regarding trade policy for investor confidence, and ultimately for the capital stock and the long-run structure of production, are examined in an analytical model. Certainty equivalence is employed to assess the general equilibrium effects of risk and uncertainty. Their reduction can boost risk-adjusted returns, leading to an increase in long-run levels of capital.     

PATTERNS OF TRADE AND GROWTH UNDER INCREASING RETURNS: ESCAPE FROM THE POVERTY TRAP*

We consider a two-sector model of intertemporal resource allocation in which the investment good sector exhibits an initial phase of increasing returns in production. The economy maximizes a discounted sum of one period utilities derived from the consumption good. If it is autarkic, it may face a poverty trap from which it cannot escape even if it follows an optimal policy. If it engages in trade with the outside world as a price taker, it may escape from the trap. The optimal patterns of production and trade are analysed for such an economy.     

A Band Spectral Analysis of Exports and Economic Growth in the United States

This paper examines the role of exports in aggregate economic growth in the United States using band spectral regression. The findings reveal a predictable relationship between long-run frequency components of real export growth and real GDP growth over the post-Bretton Woods period of flexible exchange rates. The study fails to uncover a significant relationship between long-run frequency components of the terms of trade and real output. Overall, the findings support the export-led growth hypothesis, and dismiss long-run movements in the terms of trade as an important determinant of real output growth.     

HUMAN CAPITAL DISTRIBUTION,GROWTH AND TRADE

Distribution differences in human capital matter for a country's growth and trade. While the existing literature considers only the diversity difference in talent distribution, we argue that the kurtosis difference is also an important factor. In a two‐sector equilibrium growth model, where the production function is supermodular for the consumption‐good sector and submodular for the R&D sector, we prove that the diversity effect and kurtosis effect are opposite to each other. A country endowed with more diverse but leptokurtic talent distribution may have lower growth rate and import submodular goods, opposite to the conventional result from considering only the diversity difference.     

Foreign Direct Investment and the Unionization Rate

Technological innovations improve the welfare of a country facing fixed terms of trade, but may lead to immiserization when the terms of terms of trade are adversely affected. This paper establishes that transport innovation can be immiserizing for a small country when the transport sector exhibits variable returns to scale. The release of resources from the transport sector triggers Rybczynski-like effects, and the resulting expansion (contraction) in the volume of trade and in the demand for transport services raises unit costs of these services, and may reduce welfare in the presence of decreasing (increasing) returns to scale. [411]