城市居民住房承受能力测度研究——剩余收入视角

借鉴扩展线性支出系统模型确定家庭食品、衣着、家庭设备用品及服务等非住房基本消费支出的基础上,运用剩余收入法测度了2003—2008年武汉市七种不同类型家庭的住房承受能力。剩余收入法测度结果能反映出不同类型家庭住房承受能力的具体差距,显示出武汉市中等偏下收入及以下收入家庭面临住房承受能力问题,并且收入越低住房承受能力问题越突出,结果比传统比率法更具有说服力。而比率法测度显示中等偏上户及以下家庭面临住房承受能力问题,扩大了存在住房承受能力问题的家庭范围。运用剩余收入法可以定量地测度各类家庭住房承受能力的大小和绝对差距,有助于确定城市中低收入家庭住房补贴的对象及标准,制定我国公共住房销售、租赁政府指导价格,促进完善住房保障政策。     

Housing affordability in Macau: evidence and policy

This paper investigates a contemporary issue of housing affordability in Macau. A theoretical general-equilibrium model substantiates that government policies influence the house price and quantity differently in different scenarios. Data of earnings by industry and occupation are employed to disclose the variation of affordability among different groups over the past seven years. The year of 2004 was the golden age of homeownership. In 2011, the situation deteriorated and the market price cast huge pressure on home buyers. Unaffordable house prices coexist with many vacant units. Facing such a market failure, people of Macau continuously request government intervention. The core of curbing soaring house prices is to reduce profits in house flipping. Policy suggestions mainly fall into aspects of taxation and regulations of financial assistance for mortgage.     

CONSUMPTION AND TIME USE OVER THE LIFE CYCLE

We incorporate home production in a dynamic general equilibrium model of consumption and savings with illiquid housing and a collateralized borrowing constraint. The calibrated model explains life‐cycle patterns of households' time use and consumption of different categories documented from the microdata. It predicts that the interaction of the labor efficiency profile and the home production technology explains households' time use. The resulting income profiles, the endogenous borrowing constraint, and home production account for the initial hump in consumption. The complementarity of home hours, home input, and housing in home production drives the consumption profiles later in the life cycle.     

基于承受能力的住房配置公平性实证

住房是人类维持生存的基础资源,对其公平配置是现代社会公平的基础,也是构建和谐社会的重要环节。在构建住房承受能力测度方法-修正的住房承受能力指数的基础上,以武汉市调查样本数据为例,运用Logistic回归模型分析了住房配置公平性的影响因素,发现住房承受能力水平仍然是影响住房配置公平性的重要标志,住房承受能力越高,对住房制度改革满意程度越高,认为公平的家庭也越多;教育程度在大学及以上,主要家庭成员在行政机关、事业单位、国企或集体等单位工作,对住房制度改革的满意程度较高;现有住房面积大、个人规模适中的家庭对住房制度改革也有较高的满意度。同时还发现在收入较高的家庭中,户主性别对住房配置公平性的影响不显著,户主年龄对住房配置公平性的影响也不显著。提出从积极增进社会资本、改善住房供给结构、完善住房保障制度等方面促进住房配置公平。     

Behavior of Household Portfolios in France: the Role of Housing

The two-dimensional aspects of dwellings occupied by their owner, consumption and investment, make the analysis of households' portfolio choice and the analysis of housing purchases more difficult. But it seems difficult to analyze portfolio decisions without taking account of owner-occupied housing that has an important effect on wealth composition over the life cycle. In this paper we estimated a portfolio choice model where the different dwellings are defined as assets and we showed that we cannot separate investment decisions from housing consumption. Especially, risky assets demand should be greatly influenced by attitudes toward home property.     

Modelling the demand for housing over the life cycle

We model individual demand for housing over the life cycle, and show the aggregate implications of this behaviour. Individuals delay purchasing their first home when incomes are low or uncertain. Higher house prices lead households to downsize, rather than to stop being owners. Fixed costs (property transactions taxes) have important impacts on welfare (a wealth effect) and house purchase decisions (substitution effect). In aggregate, positive house price shocks lead to consumption booms among the old but falls in consumption for the young, and reduced housing demand; positive income shocks lead to consumption booms among the young and increased housing demand.     

房价收入比来源、用途及局限性

房价收入比是中国目前广为使用的城镇居民住房支付能力度量指标,许多文献将房价收入比4-6作为国际标准,也有部分文献探讨了房价收入比存在的问题,但这些文献均建立在房价收入可合理度量住房支付能力的假设上。探讨了房价收入比来源、用途及局限性,结果表明：中国文献中常引用的＂4-6＂标准,不是发展中国家房价收入比的国际标准;房价收入比是中观或宏观指标,而不是微观指标,不能度量住户住房支付能力;房价收入比不能反映收入增长、非住房支出等因素对住房支付能力的影响,即不能合理度量住房支付能力。     

北京市城镇居民家庭住房支付能力分析

以居民家庭住房支付能力为研究对象,探讨了住房支付能力的影响因素、评价指标及判断标准,并运用月房产支出收入比、月房产消费结余和月租房消费结余等指标衡量北京市城镇居民各收入阶层的住房支付能力。     

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF HOUSING DEMAND: ESTIMATION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS*

Using data from the PSID, we estimate a dynamic model of housing demand with nonconvex adjustment costs, credit constraints, and uncertainty about income and home prices. We simulate how consumer behavior responds to house price and income declines as well as tightening credit. In response to a negative home price shock, households early in the life cycle climb the housing ladder more quickly and invest more in housing assets due to the lower price. With a concurrent negative income shock, however, housing demand falls among young and middle aged households who stay in smaller homes rather than to trade up.     

Saving up or settling down: Home ownership over the life cycle

In a Bewley model with endogenous price volatility, home ownership and mobility across locations and jobs, we assess the contribution of financial constraints, housing illiquidities and house price risk to home ownership over the life cycle. The model can explain the rise in home ownership and fall in mobility over the life cycle. While some households rent due to borrowing constraints in the mortgage market, factors that affect propensities to save and move, such as risky house values and transactions costs, are equally important determinants of the ownership rate.     

Consumption over the life cycle: How different is housing?

Micro data over the life cycle show different patterns for consumption for housing and non-housing goods: The consumption profile of non-housing goods is hump-shaped, while the consumption profile for housing first increases monotonically and then flattens out. These patterns hold true at each consumption quartile. This paper develops a quantitative, dynamic, general equilibrium model of life-cycle behavior, that generates consumption profiles consistent with the observed data. Borrowing constraints are essential in explaining the accumulation of housing stock early in life, while transaction costs are crucial in generating the slow downsizing of the housing stock later in life.     

Capital Inflows and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from China

Rising house prices in China have been of concern for investors and policymakers. Prices have risen substantially in the last decade, especially in large urban cities, and some economists have expressed concerns about the affordability of residential housing for young adults. This phenomenon becomes a major concern for policymakers, in terms of managing policies to balance the residential needs of individuals and the transition to a market economy. Theoretically, house prices ought to be linked to economic factors such as disposable income, availability of land to build and credit policy. However, it appears that traditional economic theories fail to appropriately explain house prices in China. We provide an explanation from the perspective of capital inflows into China. In terms of per capita remittances, China receives the highest inflow of foreign capital, and this may have a significant impact on risk adjusted returns in the Chinese market. To investigate this relationship, we use the vector error correction model to assess the impact of capital inflows on house prices. We find that capital inflows have a significant positive effect on house prices. The study makes important contributions to understanding the relationship between house prices and foreign remittances after controlling for other economic factors. China is a large economy. Because the impact of economic development in China has not been consistent across the country, we address the regional differences in the house price changes to capital inflows. Using regional data, we show that capital inflows have an asymmetric effect on the housing market across different provinces and cities of China. This has important implications for the development of economic policies in China that aim to provide fair access to residential housing for everyone. These findings are also relevant to investors in the housing market, whether investing for a personal residential home or as part of their diversified investment portfolio. It will also be informative to see how a reversal of capital inflows associated with tighter financing conditions in advanced countries will affect house prices in China.     

Regional UK house price co-movement

ABSTRACT

Cyclical synchronization of home prices has important implications for monetary (and other) policies. Regional house price divergence, even over a business cycle, can inhibit labour mobility and prevent workers from moving to where they could add most to their own wages and overall growth. We study house price co-movement across the different UK regions with a method, that, unlike previously employed techniques, allows for time-varying estimates. We find first, that the UK exhibits more home price divergence compared to previously reported results for the US. Second, regions near London exhibit the most co-movement, and those further from London the most divergence. Third, London itself is in the ‘middle of the pack’ in terms of synchronization compared to other regions. This may reflect London’s status as a ‘global city’ and being the destination for housing demand from sources abroad. Lastly, segmentation has clearly been increasing, rather than decreasing in recent years.     

WHY HAS HOME OWNERSHIP FALLEN AMONG THE YOUNG?*

We document that home ownership of households with “heads” aged 25–44 years fell substantially between 1980 and 2000 and recovered only partially during the 2001–5 housing boom. The 1980–2000 decline in young home ownership occurred as improvements in mortgage opportunities seemingly made it easier to purchase a home. This article uses an equilibrium life‐cycle model calibrated to micro and macro evidence to understand these developments. A trend toward marrying later mechanically lowers young home ownership after 1980. We show that the large rise in earnings risk that occurred after 1980 can easily account for the remaining decline in young home ownership.     

市民收入不均与城市住宅价格空间分布——理论模型与数值模拟

文章通过对市民收入分布特征和市民购房能力与意愿的假设,将市民收入和住宅价格结合起来,从理论上探讨了市民收入不均对城市住宅价格空间分布的影响,并进行了数值模拟。分析表明,商业聚集导致城市从中心到外围房价呈逐渐下降的外在空间规律,是由市民收入差异及其购房竞价这个"内因"实现的。收入不均程度的变化会引起城市不同区位的房价变化,市民总收入一定时,基尼系数增大会导致城市中心房价上升和边缘房价下跌;高基尼系数下出现多次购房的可能较大,这将抬高相关区位的房价。     

基于蒙特卡罗法的生态住宅全生命周期成本模拟研究

根据全生命周期成本理论和上海市统计数据,分析维修成本、运营成本等指标的变化趋势和概率分布,在估计生态住宅节能率分布的基础上,模拟计算生态住宅和非生态住宅全生命周期成本,得到成本的期望和置信区间。最后,计算生态住宅的平均建筑节能投资回收期,并从经济角度分析生态住宅是否真的节约成本,带来效益,为购房者及开发商提供选择与判断的依据。     

Having It All? Employment,Earnings, and Children*

We study the effect of family policies on female employment, fertility, and the gender wage gap. We develop a life‐cycle model of heterogeneous households featuring endogenous labor supply, human capital accumulation, fertility, and home production. Our results suggest that human capital accumulation is important in accounting for the widening of the gender wage gap following children. We find that, in aggregate, childcare subsidies promote maternal employment and fertility, although the effects are heterogeneous across couples. A subsidy on home goods increases female employment, but primarily later in life. Thus, it does not dampen the widening of the gender gap.     

Microsimulation Modelling of Tenure Choice and Grants to Promote Home Ownership

This article develops a microsimulation model of the Australian housing market that has tenure choice as its principal focus. The article sheds light on the role played by relative prices, wealth and borrowing constraints in shaping housing tenure choices. We explore the model's capabilities as an aid to policy making by reporting the findings from an impact analysis of grant programs designed to ease the transition of first home buyers into owner occupation. We find a large demand for home ownership that is not met because of borrowing constraints. The need to meet financial institutions' down payment requirements is particularly important. Government grants made available to first home buyers will ease down payment requirements, but the formal incidence of such a subsidy is found to be inequitable among potential first home buyers, and its impact is largely to bring forward purchase decisions.     

Housing and unemployment: The search for the “American Dream”

This paper constructs a model of search and bargaining across two different markets: the labor market and the housing market. Interestingly, the model highlights that housing prices and frictions in the housing market have a profound impact on labor market activity through the desire of workers to eventually purchase a home, the “American Dream.” In particular, higher housing prices adversely affect workers’ incentives in the labor market as employment can eventually lead to access to housing through the ability to purchase a home. Similarly, labor market frictions can impact housing market activity. Notably, tighter housing markets are associated with higher unemployment rates and less job creation. Consequently, our work suggests that policymakers should be very careful in implementing policies targeted towards housing – housing markets are likely to generate significant external effects to other sectors of the economy, especially the labor market.     

住房需求动态模型的演进

在家庭生命周期内,最优住房消费并不是一成不变的。为了最大化整个生命周期的效用,家庭通常需要权衡迁居的交易成本和不迁居的效用损失。本文介绍研究住房需求的动态模型,给出家庭住房消费决策的理论解释。