Combination of long term and short term forecasts, with application to tourism demand forecasting

Forecast combination is a well-established and well-tested approach for improving the forecasting accuracy. One beneficial strategy is to use constituent forecasts that have diverse information. In this paper we consider the idea of diversity being accomplished by using different time aggregations. For example, we could create a yearly time series from a monthly time series and produce forecasts for both, then combine the forecasts. These forecasts would each be tracking the dynamics of different time scales, and would therefore add diverse types of information. A comparison of several forecast combination methods, performed in the context of this setup, shows that this is indeed a beneficial strategy and generally provides a forecasting performance that is better than the performances of the individual forecasts that are combined.As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we consider 33 individual source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel combination strategy also produces a generally improved forecasting accuracy.     

The role of judgment,assumptions, techniques,and confidence limits in forecasting population

This paper discusses the fundamental role judgment and assumptions play in forecasting population. It is suggested that so-called “projections” operationally are usually either forecasts or extrapolations. Specific projection methodologies and techniques are shown to embody assumptions. A simple typology of such assumptions is presented as a guide to evaluate forecasts. Tests of projection technique accuracy are cited and it is concluded that such tests cannot succeed due to the assumption factor. Finally, time series forecasting techniques are criticized because their terminology with respect to confidence limits about a forecast is misleading.     

The problem of population and growth: a review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth.

This review traces the evolution of literature on population and economic growth through the main paradigms suggested to explain the observed covariation of per capita income and population levels (or their rates of growth) over time and space, and determine which public policies will improve the human condition. As the main paradigms evolved, key variables were progressively treated as endogenous (instead of exogenous) to the growth process. After the introduction, section 2 looks at the "classical model" of Malthusian population theory and its refinements. Section 3 identifies empirical data that bears on the secular and cross-sectional association between levels of rates of growth of population and per capita income. The inconsistency of these data with the classical model helps explain declining interest in this model over time and increased interest in a more systematic type of population and growth theory. The beginning of this new interest is traced in section 4 with a look at the "neo-classical growth model" and the reformulated theory of population, which was based on Becker's work on fertility behavior. The first line of inquiry branching from these theoretical works (section 5) treats population as an endogenous variable in static and dynamic settings. The second line of inquiry (section 6) analyzes population and growth within a unified model of growth and development. In section 7, recent studies of key policy issues (population control policies, mandatory social security schemes) are surveyed. The concluding section notes that contemporary research must face the challenge of providing additional insights into longevity as an aspect of economic growth and development and of developing a model of endogenous population and economic growth based on heterogeneous agents.     

我国居民收入、人口、投资与居民消费模型的比较及分析

本文采用总量模型和增长速度模型的对比方法,利用数据分析和实证分析,研究了我国农村居民家庭人均纯收入及其增长速度,城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入及其增长速度,全社会固定资产人均投资及其增长速度,人口增长速度与居民消费水平及其增长速度之间的关系,揭示了它们之间的内在规律。     

北部湾城市群发展中的人口、资源、环境一体化问题探析

在广西北部湾经济区的发展获得国家的重点支持之后,北部湾城市群的社会经济飞速发展.但在发展过程中,这些区域的人口、资源、环境发展失衡的问题却时社会经济产生了较大的负面影响.文章认为,当地政府部门应根据城市群的性质制定有利于各城市之间的经济社会协调发展和可持续发展的措施,通过转变发展模式、调整人口规模结构、开展综合整治等方式实现人口、资源、环境一体化的协调发展.     

人口与土地因素的大连市区域性通胀问题研究

近年来,居民收入涨幅不能抵补大连市房价飙升的现象越来越突出,这也就等于逐渐地削减了居民的平均可支配收入,即大连市区域性通胀问题。为了改善居民的生活福利,本文以人口与土地因素为切入点,研究大连市区域性通胀的形成机理并提出相关的治理对策。全文共包括四部分内容,第一部分为本文的引言;第二部分人口与土地因素的大连市区域性通胀问题分析;第三部分为人口与土地因素的大连市区域性通胀治理对策;第四部分为本文的结语。     

北部湾城市群发展中的人口、资源、环境一体化问题探析

在广西北部湾经济区的发展获得国家的重点支持之后,北部湾城市群的社会经济飞速发展。但在发展过程中,这些区域的人口、资源、环境发展失衡的问题却对社会经济产生了较大的负面影响。文章认为,当地政府部门应根据城市群的性质制定有利于各城市之间的经济社会协调发展和可持续发展的措施,通过转变发展模式、训整人口规模结构、开展综合整治等方式实现人口、资源、环境一体化的协调发展。     

新型城镇化过程中流动人口划分与统计方法探索

目前我国正处在城镇化快速推进的过程中,农村人口向城镇的转移和城镇化进步是同一过程,人口城镇化将成为我国未来社会发展的基本国情.作为人口城镇化的核心内容,流动人口的定居及转化已成为当前制约我国城镇化质量提升的主要问题之一.结合我国特殊的城镇化进程,针对城镇化率量高质低的现状,我国城镇化质量提升的重点应放在提高户籍人口(或者说是完全融入城镇生活的农村人口)的比重上.对此,拟从多维视角切入,对新型城镇化过程中的流动人口划分与统计方法进行探索与验证.     

Allocating U.S. Department of Homeland Security funds to States with explicit equity, population and energy facility security criteria

Allocation of funds to states and local governments by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has been challenged for relying too heavily on the U.S. Patriot Act formula that contains set-asides for each state. Yet, DHS's recent efforts to include more vulnerability/risk information have been criticized for lacking transparency. Using only off-the-shelf data and an off-the-shelf optimization model, which is a compromise between politically grounded formulas and complex analyses supported by massive data manipulations, the authors maximize need (defined and represented here as funds to protect electrical-generating capacity) subject to explicit constraints based on political equity and population size but introduce risk-related criteria as well in the form of ease of securing the facilities and public perception of risk. The model results closely approximate the DHS allocations at the state level when electricity generation and its retail price are maximized subject to moderate set-asides for political equity and population size. The advantages of this approach are that the results are transparent and sensitivity analysis is relatively easy to do. The advantages and disadvantages of the approach presented here are compared with more sophisticated alternatives.     

The systemic variables and elasticities in Alonso's general,theory of movement

This paper explores the theoretical underpinnings of interregional movement models generalized by William Alonso focusing on the systemic effects of origin supply conditions and destination demand conditions. It is found that although Alonso's theory is logically consistent in terms of regional aggregation and interregional migration accounts, in practice the elasticity estimation of the systemic variables is problematic. Unless the affinity term is broadly defined, the trends in the ratio of interregional to intraregional affinities, cast suspicion on the family of spatial interaction models because of the inseparability of distance from origin and destination characteristics, and spatial autocorrelation problem.