The persistence of profits in banking: an international comparison

This article examines the dynamics of bank profitability in the USA, Germany, Great Britain, France, Italy and Switzerland over the period 1993–2014. We find long-run bank profit persistence in all six countries in the period before the financial crisis in 2008. Banks with large capital ratios are persistently more profitable, and there is little evidence of a link between bank size and the persistence of bank profits. Commercial (saving) banks are persistently more (less) profitable in four of the six countries. The effects of the financial crisis in 2008 differed dramatically across countries as well as across ownership types. While US banks experienced dramatic declines in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, they recovered much faster than their European counterparts and essentially retain their long run profit potential by the year 2014.     

Efficiency in banking: a meta-regression analysis

One learns two main lessons from studying the great quantity of banking efficiency literature. These lessons regard the heterogeneity in results and the absence of a comprehensive review aimed at understanding the reasons for this variability. Surprisingly, although this issue is well-known, it has not been systematically analyzed before. In order to fill this gap, we perform a Meta-Regression-Analysis (MRA) by examining 1661 efficiency scores retrieved from 120 papers published over the period 2000–2014. The meta-regression is estimated by using the Random Effects Multilevel Model (REML) because it controls for within- and between-study heterogeneity. The analysis yields four main results. First, parametric methods yield lower levels of banking efficiency than nonparametric studies. This holds true even after controlling for the approach used in selecting the inputs and outputs of the frontier. Secondly, we show that banking efficiency is highest when using the value-added approach, followed by estimates from studies based on the intermediation method, whereas those based on the hybrid approach are the lowest. Thirdly, efficiency scores are also determined by the quality of studies and the number of observations and variables used in the primary papers. As far as the effects of sample size, dimension and quality of papers are concerned, there are significant differences in sign and magnitude between parametric and nonparametric studies. Finally, cost efficiency is found to be higher than profit efficiency. Interestingly, MRA results are robust to the potential outliers in efficiency and sample size distributions.     

The effect of the euro on aeronautic trade: A French regional analysis

After describing the spatial distribution of the aeronautic industry in France, this study analyzes the determinants of French regional bilateral exports and imports, according to a trade gravity model, for the period 2003–2010. The appreciation of the euro has a negative impact on exports and a positive effect on imports, confirming the fears of European politicians and managers in the aeronautic sector. The gravity equation, extended to integrate factor complementarities among partners, also shows that labor productivity levels in France and its partner countries are significant determinants of trade, supporting O-ring theory applied from Kremer (1993) to explicate trade in the aeronautical sector. The spatial organization of this sector is also analyzed via the impact of foreign military spending on French trade. Finally, by distinguishing French imports and arrivals of products manufactured in Europe and in France, supplementary estimations reveal that outward foreign direct investment FDI affects the imports and arrivals of European products negatively but has positive influences on the imports and arrivals of French products.     

Editor's introduction: Distributional consequences of emerging technologies

Emerging technologies have a great potential to exacerbate inequalities. The papers in this special section represent case studies of the ways five different technologies interacted with particular national contexts to produce distributional effects. A central hypothesis of the study was that the same technological project would have different distributional consequences under different national conditions; this was confirmed. Public interventions shaped the trajectories of the technological project through intellectual property and anti-trust provisions as well as regulations, much more than through the research agenda itself. These technologies were not associated with large gains or losses in jobs, but rather with modest shifts downward in numbers and upwards in skill requirements. Price was not the only determinant of how far the technologies diffused; skills and infrastructure were also important. In sum, distributional consequences take many forms. “Diffusion” consists of both push and pull, need and absorptive capacity. The relevant decision makers are in both the public and private sectors, and a broad range of policies affects this process, not just science, technology, and innovation policies. There are many options for public intervention, but no one size fits all countries.¹     

Exchange rate exposure, foreign currency derivatives and the introduction of the euro: French evidence

We investigate the impact of the introduction of the Euro on exchange rate exposures for French corporations and examine the corporate use of foreign currency derivatives to hedge exchange rate exposure post-Euro. Our findings indicate that the introduction of the Euro is associated with both a reduction in the number of firms that have significant exchange rate exposure and the absolute size of exposure. Consistent with these reduced exposures, French firms use foreign currency derivatives less intensively. Furthermore, the use of foreign currency derivatives is found to be associated with lower exchange rate exposure but there is insufficient evidence that these instruments are more effective in the post-Euro environment.     

The international wealth channel: a global error-correcting analysis

This article investigates empirically whether shocks to asset prices transmit into the trade balance through consumption and investment for a group of five of the world??s most industrialized countries. We refer to this transmission channel as the international wealth channel and estimate a GVAR model including 29 countries with quarterly data over the period 1981Q1?C2006Q4. Generalized impulse response functions show that after a negative stock price shock US and UK consumption decreases, followed by an improving trade balance. This pattern is also visible for France, but not for Germany and Japan. Stock price decreases are only associated with decreasing investment and an improving trade balance in the UK. For housing, we do find that a negative shock to UK housing prices decreases domestic investment and improves the trade balance. However, this pattern is not visible in the other countries. Finally, a domestic negative real exchange rate shock only has a significantly positive impact on the US trade balance.     

Waves of international banking integration: A tale of regional differences

We propose an original measure of international banking integration based on gravity equations and a spline function on a panel of 14 countries and their 186 partners between 1999 and 2012. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, we uncover that: (1) the international banking integration outside the euro area has been tenaciously increasing since 1999 and has even strengthened after the crisis. (2) In contrast, the international banking integration of the euro area has been cyclical since 1999 with a peak in 2006 and a complete reversal since then. (3) This decline is not a correction of previous overshooting but a marked disintegration. (4) Outside the euro area, the level of income does not affect the shape of banking integration.     

The (in)stability of money demand in the euro area: lessons from a cross-country analysis

The instability of standard money demand functions has undermined the role of monetary aggregates for monetary policy analysis in the euro area. This paper uses country-specific monetary aggregates to shed more light on the economics behind the instability of euro area money demand. Our results obtained from panel estimation indicate that the observed instability of standard money demand functions could be explained by omitted variables like e.g. technological progress that are important for money demand but constant across member countries.     

Transmission channels of international financial crises to African stock markets: the case of the euro sovereign debt crisis

This article investigates the effects of the European sovereign debt crisis on African stock markets within a Bayesian shrinkage VAR framework. This method allows us to consider both North African and Sub-Saharan African stock markets, and provides a flexible parsimonious specification. The results reveal varying reactions of the impulse response functions. The most exposed African stock markets are those of Egypt, South Africa and Mauritius, while the least affected stock market is, surprisingly, that of Ivory Coast. Our analysis shows that, in addition to direct transmission, several macroeconomic and market channels, such as commodities, exports, and exchange rates, are relevant. Specifically, countries with strong commercial links to European countries will be most impacted by the crisis. The severity of transmission also depends on the country’s dependence on commodities.     

The price of the euro: evidence from sovereign debt markets

The objective of this article is to ascertain how the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in Europe has affected its members’ long-term government bond yields. In order to estimate the effect, this article utilizes a synthetic control approach. The main finding is that the majority of the member countries did not receive economic gains from the EMU in sovereign debt markets. Synthetic counterfactual analysis finds strong evidence that Austria, Belgium, Finland, France and the Netherlands have paid a positive and substantial euro-premium in their 10-year government bonds since the adoption of the single currency. After the most recent financial crisis, government bond yields have been higher in all member countries compared to the situation that would have occurred without the monetary unification. This article concludes that from the viewpoint of sovereign borrowing, it would be beneficial for a country to maintain its own currency and monetary policy.     

The enlargement of the euro area: differences in relative inflation

This paper investigates the structural determinants of relative inflation (i.e. the inflation of non‐tradables vs tradables) in the context of overall inflation differentials in the EU. The analysis is based on the Bergstrand theoretical model. This framework incorporates three alternative hypotheses of relative inflation (Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson, relative factors endowment, and demand effects). Due to the lack of reliable data on capital stocks only a curtailed version of the model is tested here empirically. The various specifications of the model are estimated for the majority of EU countries, using the Pedroni panel group mean FMOLS estimator. In general, relative labour productivity and demand factors turn out to be significant and correctly signed, though evidence in favour of the latter effect seems to be less robust. In addition, differences in the determination of relative prices between the new and old EU Member States are found. They seem to be consistent with theoretical considerations and the transition phenomenon. The estimation results are very sensitive to the definition of non‐tradables. The paper also discusses policy implications for overall inflation, stemming from relative price models. It questions the usefulness of relative inflation models for the analysis of overall inflation differentials and practical policy decisions.     

Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective

A time-varying natural rate of interest is estimated for the euro area using a multivariate unobserved components model. The problem of aggregating interest rate data for the pre-EMU period is directly addressed, and a simple method is proposed in order to adjust the risk premia in the interest rate data prior to 1999. We show that, for the pre-EMU period, using risk-unadjusted policy rates leads to periods of high risk premia being erroneously taken as monetary policy replies to the output gap; in contrast, using risk-adjusted policy rates yields an estimate of the reaction of monetary policy to the output gap corresponding approximately to an increase of 40 basis points for a 1%positive deviation of output from potential output. A positive deviation of inflation from its trend of 1%is estimated to have triggered an approximately 1.2%increase in short-term interest rates.     

The natural rate of interest and the output gap in the euro area: a joint estimation

The notion of a natural real rate of interest, due to Wicksell (Interest and prices. Macmillan, London Translation of 1898 edition, 1936), is widely used in current central bank research. The idea is that there exists a level at which the real interest rate would be compatible with output at its potential level and stationary inflation. Such a concept is of primary concern for monetary policy because it provides a benchmark for the monetary policy stance. This paper applies the method suggested by Laubach and Williams (Rev Econ Stat 85(4):1063–1070, 2003) to jointly estimate the natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area using data from 1960 onwards. Our results suggest that the natural real rate of interest has declined gradually over the past 40 years. They also indicate that monetary policy in the euro area was on average stimulative during the 1960s and the 1970s, while it contributed to dampen the output gap and inflation in the 1980s and 1990s. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the institutions to which they are affiliated. We are grateful to Siem Jan Koopman for very helpful suggestions and comments. We also thank P. Cour-Thimann, V. Curdia, F. Drudi, S. McCaw, D. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, R. Pilegaard, H. Pill, L. Stracca, T. Laubach, J. C. Williams and the participants of an ECB workshop on natural interest rates.     

The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area

We develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and Global Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions in the euro area and between the euro area and the world economy. Specifically, we simulate a permanent reduction in labor tax rates in the euro area. The effects on real activity are expansionary in both the short run and long run. Implementing reforms simultaneously across regions would produce extra benefits and make the macroeconomic performance in the euro area more even.     

Monetary policy strategies in the New Normal: A model-based analysis for the euro area

A calibrated New Keynesian model of the euro area is used to evaluate the stabilization properties of alternative monetary policy strategies when the natural rate of interest is low (“new normal”) and the probability of reaching the effective lower bound (ELB) is non-negligible. Price level targeting is the most effective strategy in terms of stabilizing inflation and output and reducing the duration and frequency of ELB episodes. Temporary price level targeting is also effective in mitigating the ELB constraint, although its stabilization properties are inferior to those of price level targeting. Backward-looking average inflation targeting performs well and is preferable to inflation targeting. The effectiveness of these alternative strategies hinges upon the commitment of a central bank to keeping the policy rate “lower for longer” and is influenced by agents’ expectation formation mechanism.     

Firm credit in the euro area: a tale of three crises

Using survey data from 2009 to 2011, we analyse the effects of the recent euro area economic, financial and private debt crisis on the supply of and demand for bank finance for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). At the country level, we identify three distinct aspects of the recent crisis in the euro area affecting firm credit through different channels. Controlling for country fixed effects, the impact of a weak real economy on firm credit operates both by reducing firms’ demand for bank financing and by lenders increasing loan rejections and tightening terms and conditions on credit allocated. On the other hand, financial conditions have no significant effect on demand, but they do affect credit supply as we find that financial tensions worsen the chances of obtaining credit and its terms and conditions. We interpret this as evidence of a bank balance sheet channel negatively impacting credit provision. We find that private sector indebtedness has important effects on SMEs’ credit access and its terms and conditions.     

The effect of the euro on foreign direct investment

In this paper the recent effect of the European Monetary Union on inward FDI-flows is examined using a difference-in-differences approach. The estimated results show that the introduction of the euro raised inward FDI flows by approximately 16% within the euro area, by approximately 11% to non-members and weakly by around 8% from non-member countries into the euro area. Moreover, the geographical effects of the euro are explored. The results show partial agglomeration tendencies for the euro area. There are also some indications of increased importance of vertical specialization in the sample.