Distribution Costs and International Trade: A Ricardian Model

This paper studies the role of the distribution sector in determining a country's pattern and terms of trade. The effect of an improvement in distribution technology is analyzed using a Ricardian trade model with an endogenous distribution sector. The results are found to depend on the magnitude of distribution costs relative to manufacturing costs and preference for distribution services in the trading countries. This has important implications for the Structural Impediments Initiative, which maintains that a more efficient distribution sector in Japan would benefit both the USA and Japan.     

A Ricardian Model with Endogenous Comparative Advantage and Endogenous Trade Policy Regimes

This paper develops a Ricardian model with transaction costs and endogenous and exogenous comparative advantages. It shows that the level of division of labour and trade increases as transaction conditions improve. It identifies the conditions for trade negotiations that result in zero tariff rates and the conditions for the coexistence of unilateral tariff protection and unilateral laissez faire policies. The model may explain the policy transformation of some European governments from Mercantilism to laissez faire in the 18th and 19th century and policy changes in developing countries from protection tariff to trade liberalization and tariff negotiation.     

Indivisibilities in the Ricardian model of trade

The idea that goods or factors of production may not be perfectly divisible has important implications for many areas of economics. This paper introduces both types of indivisibilities into the standard Ricardian model of international trade. Indivisibilities give rise to new results compared to the standard model with perfectly divisible goods and factors of production. Both types of indivisibility may result in complete specialisation even in autarky, while goods indivisibility may result in (ex ante) identical consumers consuming different bundles of goods, and hence enjoying different levels of welfare. Both types of indivisibilities lead to efficiency losses relative to the perfectly divisible case. International trade may eliminate efficiency losses resulting from indivisibility in the factors of production, but not those resulting from goods indivisibility. This suggests that the presence of indivisibilities leads to a second-best world, with the consequent implications for policy. The results of the paper are consistent with existing empirical evidence.     

微观基础的李嘉图模型及其比较利益分配——兼论中美贸易摩擦

本文将消费者偏好和国家规模引入李嘉图模型,通过一般均衡的方法分析了均衡的产量和价格,并探讨了国际贸易发生的条件及各种因素变化对参加贸易的各国国民福利的影响.在微观模型的基础上,通过一个博弈、谈判模型具体分析了国际比较利益的分割及其各国贸易模式的选择,较好的解释了国际贸易得益的分配问题.政策涵义是中美贸易争端不能采取报复性的关税或人为设置贸易壁垒来解决,而应当通过协商与对话来获得互利双赢.     

Ricardian productivity differences and the gains from trade

This paper evaluates the role of sectoral heterogeneity in determining the gains from trade. We first show analytically that in the presence of sectoral Ricardian comparative advantage, a one-sector sufficient statistic formula that uses total trade volumes as a share of total absorption systematically understates the true gains from trade. Greater relative sectoral productivity differences lead to larger disparities between the gains implied by the one-sector formula and the true gains. Using data on overall and sectoral trade shares in a sample of 79 countries and 19 sectors we show that the multi-sector formula implies on average 30% higher gains from trade than the one-sector formula, and as much as 100% higher gains for some countries. We then set up and estimate a quantitative Ricardian–Heckscher–Ohlin model in which no version of the formula applies exactly, and compare a range of sufficient statistic formulas to the true gains in this model. Confirming the earlier results, formulas that do not take into account the sectoral heterogeneity understate the true gains from trade in the model by as much as two-thirds. The one-sector formulas understate the gains by more in countries with greater dispersion in sectoral productivities.     

Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union

The prevalence of different fiscal regimes is important both for practical policy reasons and to assess fiscal sustainability, notably for European Union countries. The purpose of this article is to assess, with a panel data set, the empirical evidence concerning the existence of Ricardian fiscal regimes in EU-15 countries. The results give support to the Ricardian fiscal regime hypothesis throughout the sample period, and for sub-samples accounting for the dates of the Maastricht Treaty and for the setting-up of the Stability and Growth Pact. Furthermore, electoral budget cycles also seem to play a relevant role in fiscal behaviour.

The Cambridge challenge to the Ricardian analysis of poverty

The Ricardian economists’ famous model of economic growth employed the Malthusian population doctrine, the law of diminishing returns, and the classical or iron law of wages. This analysis was based on utilitarian moral philosophy. The gloomy Stationary State conclusions of the Ricardian growth model — maldistribution of income and widespread poverty — were challenged by both economists and moral philosophers. A particularly important challenge was that offered by William Whewell (1794–1866), Professor of Moral Philosophy and the dominant figure at the University of Cambridge. Whewell is remembered today for his early contributions to mathematical economics. This article begins with a review of the Ricardian growth model. Next, Whewell’s system of moral philosophy is examined and the scientific and religious basis of Whewell’s antagonism to Ricardian economics is considered. After considering Whewell’s treatment of agricultural progress, economic classes, and rent doctrine, his own model of economic growth is analyzed. Finally, Whewell’s appraisal of the duty of government to those harmed by development is explored.     

Tax evasion and Ricardian equivalence

This paper studies whether the Ricardian equivalence holds in a context with tax evasion. In such a context, the degree of uncertainty becomes endogenous since agents control the distribution of their future income through their income report. We find that Ricardian equivalence holds when proportional fines are imposed on evaded taxes, but does not hold when the fines are on the amount of unreported income. We also show that it is possible to explain the empirical negative relation between tax rates and declared income when the path of government spending remains unchanged.     

Classical Ricardian Theory of Comparative Advantage Revisited

According to the classical Ricardian theory of comparative advantage, relative labor productivities determine trade patterns. The Ricardian model plays an important pedagogical role in international economics, but has received scant empirical attention since the 1960s. This paper assesses the contemporary relevance of the Ricardian model for US trade. Cross-section seemingly unrelated regressions of sectoral trade flows on relative labor productivity and unit labor costs are run for a number of countries vis-à-vis the United States. The coefficients are almost always correctly signed and statistically significant, although much of the sectoral variation of trade remains unexplained.     

A Ricardian model of climate change in Canada

Abstract A comparative static 'Ricardian' model is used to establish relationships between climate and agricultural land value in Canada. From these relationships, agricultural costs of climate change scenarios are estimated. This study is motivated partly by evidence of potential agricultural benefits of climate change from a similar analysis of the United States by Mendelsohn, Nordhaus and Shaw, and partly by the void of Canadian studies. Furthermore, it extends the analysis to non‐uniform climate change scenarios. Its finding of a slightly positive upper bound on the agricultural benefits from climate change, within a wide margin of error, is motivation for further analysis.
Un modèle ricardien de changement climatique au Canada.  L'auteur utilise un modèle statique ricardien classique pour établir des relations entre le climat et la valeur des terres agricoles au Canada. A partir de ces relations, on calibre les coûts agricoles de divers scénarios de changement climatique. Cette étude a pris forme en partie en réaction aux résultats d'une analyse similaire de Mendelsohn, Nordhaus et Shaw aux Etats‐Unis, et en partie en réponse à un manque d'études de ce genre au Canada. Cet article étend les analyses aux scénarios de changements climatiques non‐uniformes. Les résultats suggèrent qu'il existe une sorte de borne positive supérieure aux avantages agricoles du changement climatique, à l'intérieur d'une marge d'erreur assez vaste. Voilà qui encourage à poursuivre les analyses.     

Endogenous Land use and the Ricardian Valuation of Climate Change

The Ricardian technique uses cross-sectional variation in the capitalized value of climate in land to infer the agricultural costs or benefits of dynamic climate change. While a practical approach for predicting the consequences of global warming with readily available data, it may yield biased results when land-use decisions depend on the climate attributes being valued and when land has unobserved attributes that differ with the use to which it is put. This paper illustrates the conditions under which such a bias will occur, describes an empirical model that corrects for it, and estimates that model with agricultural census data from Brazil. The approach, moreover, allows constraints on adjustment to be explicitly incorporated into the Ricardian framework, relaxing one of that technique’s most conspicuous assumptions. I would like to thank Patrick Bayer, Steven Berry, Robert Evenson, Michael Hanemann, Robert Mendelsohn, Bill Nordhaus, Kerry Smith, Karl Storchmann, two anonymous referees, and seminar participants at the University of California – Santa Barbara and the Research Triangle Institute for their useful insights and helpful comments. All remaining errors and omissions are my own. Fabiana Tito provided excellent research assistance, and Denisard Alves and Robert Evenson generously supplied the data.     

"价值转形问题"的塞顿模型分析

英国经济学家塞顿的论文<转形问题>在价值转形问题研究史上具有重要的地位.本文将说明:首先,这篇论文,建立了"价值转形问题"的一般公式,在价值转形问题的研究上,塞顿的这项工作是具有重要贡献的;其次,这篇论文,将"价值转形问题"的讨论从对"不变性公式"的选择转到对"特殊模型"的选择之上,这是一个重要的转折;但是,另一方面,这篇论文认为:"价值转形问题"只能在特殊模型中得到解决,马克思转形理论量的完善性只能在特殊条件下成立,这则是一个错误的结论.     

A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa

This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the sixteen Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Africa. We combine net revenue from livestock and crops and regress total net revenue on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables with and without country fixed effects. Although African crop net revenue is very sensitive to climate change, combined livestock and crop net revenue is more climate resilient. With the hot and dry CCC climate scenario, average damage estimates reach 27% by 2100, but with the mild and wet PCM scenario, African farmers will benefit. The analysis of AEZs implies that the effects of climate change will be quite different across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid AEZs become more productive in the future. S. Niggol Seo is the Consultant to the World Bank.     

基于VAR模型的CCI影响因素分析

本文运用包含消费者预期指数、消费者满意指数的消费者信心指数的月度时间序列数据,利用VAR模型方法分析了消费者满意指数和预期指数的影响关系,同时,分析了它们与物价、消费、储蓄、股票市场的相互影响关系.分析结果显示:消费者满意指数和消费者预期指数有影响关系,滞后一期消费者预期指数对当期消费者满意指数和消费者预期指数都有正的影响,滞后二期的预期指数对当期满意指数有负的影响;物价指数对消费者信心指数的影响有明显的滞后,当期物价指数对下一期的满意指数和预期指数都有正的影响,对于下两期的有负的影响;无论从长期角度还是短期角度看,存款总额对消费者预期指数、消费者满意指数的影响都是正向的.同时,本文验证了消费者信心指数的信号引导功能,消费者预期指数有消费引导功能,其提升会导致以后的消费总额的增长;储蓄增长有助于信心指数的增长;股票市场对信心指数影响不显著.     

Ricardian trade and the impact of domestic competition on export performance

Abstract This paper develops and empirically examines a model of relative productivity differences both within and across industries for small open economies. We decompose the effect of industry productivity on export performance into direct effect of own‐firm productivity and an indirect effect of higher peer‐firm productivity. In a sample of Chilean and Colombian plants, we find evidence of both a positive direct effect and a negative indirect effect. The empirical evidence supports our theoretical prediction that industry‐specific factors of production and asymmetric substitutability between domestic and foreign varieties drive the negative indirect effect. JEL classification: F10, F11, F12     

Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia

Events surrounding the global financial and economic crises of 2008 and 2009 have sparked a renewed interest in discretionary fiscal policy. This article considers whether private saving in Australia behaves in a manner that is consistent with Ricardian equivalence, thus mitigating the effects of fiscal policy, or conversely, if fiscal policy has some ability to influence the real economy. Results indicate that, while there is not a full Ricardian response to changes in the fiscal stance, there is some partial offsetting behaviour—implying that fiscal policy does elicit some (limited) impact on economic activity.     

李嘉图等价定理及其在中国的适用性分析

李嘉图等价定理认为,政府的财政收入形式的选择,不会引起人们经济行为的调整。但是,现代经济学家们并非完全同意李嘉图的见解,无论是对其必要条件的检验还是对其结论的检验都存在着争论。而通过实证分析我国1989—2004年的政府发债分别与消费和投资的关系,可以得出结论：从历史数据来看,李嘉图等价定理在我国并不适用。     

期货价格波动分析的弹性系统模型

有效市场理论是市场价格波动的基础理论,然而,其假设及分类的理想化,很难很好解释复杂的市场现象,为此,本文提出了趋于有效的假说,使其与现实复杂的实际市场吻合。在此基础上,借鉴物理学的弹性系统模型,对影响价格因素细分,进而构建价格波动的弹性系统模型,来更好地解释价格波动的特性和主要动力源泉,并为市场分析提供有效的思路。     

发达国家垄断产业管制机构模式分析

管制机构及其运行机制设置是各国垄断产业管制改革的重点问题之一.美国、英国和日本垄断产业管制机构的独立性由强到弱,深入分析它们的形成背景、组织形式以及运行机制,对我国尽快建立具有合法地位的、相对独立的管制机构有借鉴作用.     

基于核心—边缘模型的劳动力迁移动因分析

工资水平差异是我国劳动力迁移的主要动因。运输成本越大,产品的替代弹性越大,消费者在工业品上的支出比例越低,劳动力越倾向于在空间均匀分布,否则,劳动力更倾向于迁入工资水平高的地区,最终形成核心——边缘的空间模式。